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If Nick Markakis (poll)

if nick got 3000 and 600 -- hof?

  • yes

    Votes: 15 62.5%
  • no

    Votes: 9 37.5%

  • Total voters
    24

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death2redemptions

New member
Feb 4, 2016
12,488
0
The Carolina on the Southern side
hes not a hall of famer.. if he got 3,000 hits and one of them was a bad ruling on an error.. mlb would go back overturn that ruling or simply burn down the Hall of Fame to keep it from being further soiled by less than great players..

hell the other side of that.. if alan trammell can get in.. why not? with him getting in i should get some votes..

He's not going to reach 3,000 hits...I just can't see it happening. Sure he's putting up a career year, his best one since his 2008 season but I just don't see him continuing to put up this level of production for much longer. It's odd enough that he's revitalized himself during his age 34 season but it's not completely unheard of. You'll hear about it happening to a player or two every year. Last year it was Ryan Zimmerman & such as we are seeing with Zimmerman this year, it's generally followed by a swift regression to the norm. Then you've got the players like Nelson Cruz who were never All-Stars, or maybe once an All-Star, until they reached their 30's and are now perennial All-Star/MVP finalists. Of course, these type of players almost always have a past history with steroids (like Cruz).

It's different with pitchers though and I'm never really surprised to see it happen. In fact, analytic websites like fangraphs say that generally (but not always) pitchers don't reach their prime form until their early 30's season.
 

Musial Collector

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
5,671
2
How many players that have 3000 hits are not in the HOF?

Rose and Palmeiro off the top of my head.
Speaking of I just watched Rafael Palmeiro play last night. Hes with the Cleburne Railroaders of the Independent League. For 53, guy can still hit the ball well.
 
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bstanwood

Well-known member
Sep 24, 2016
3,666
332
Mystic, CT
Some guys get there with a relatively short peak that is ridiculously dominant...Koufax, others get there by grinding it our over several decades...Sutton. 3000 is so remarkable that it deserves to be enshrined, not matter how amazing or underwhelming someone strikes you. How many Major league careers don't even last 3000 ABs or games???
I doubt he will get there but hats off to him anyway.
 

WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,736
1,498
Oklahoma
He's not going to reach 3,000 hits...I just can't see it happening. Sure he's putting up a career year, his best one since his 2008 season but I just don't see him continuing to put up this level of production for much longer. It's odd enough that he's revitalized himself during his age 34 season but it's not completely unheard of. You'll hear about it happening to a player or two every year. Last year it was Ryan Zimmerman & such as we are seeing with Zimmerman this year, it's generally followed by a swift regression to the norm. Then you've got the players like Nelson Cruz who were never All-Stars, or maybe once an All-Star, until they reached their 30's and are now perennial All-Star/MVP finalists. Of course, these type of players almost always have a past history with steroids (like Cruz).

It's different with pitchers though and I'm never really surprised to see it happen. In fact, analytic websites like fangraphs say that generally (but not always) pitchers don't reach their prime form until their early 30's season.

I think he probably will get to 3,000 hits. He will likely get to 600 doubles. He'll get to 1,000 RBIs and 1,000 walks easily. He's already over 1,000 runs. What, I think, will determine his Hall of Fame case is how quickly he gets there. Finishing up this season just like he has been playing (another 70 hits or so) then dropping back down to his late career ~160 hit per season pace puts him pretty close to 2,900 hits (2,880ish) after his age 38 season. It wouldn't take much of a sustained spike to go over 3K in that time frame. It isn't likely but he has changed up his swing and he has the kind of skillset that tends to age very, very well so maybe he gets there by the end of the 2022 season. If he hangs on till he's 40 or 41 chasing those last 120 hits then I think his candidacy goes out the window since it is already fringe.

I'm really rooting for him to get to all those milestones. It makes for one hell of an interesting Hall of Fame case. He's on pace for a shade over 4 fWAR this year. If he follows a sort of normal aging curve and accrues 1.5 (rest of 2018), 3.5 (down from 4), 3, 2.5, 2 by the end of the 2022 season you've got a guy who is at ~41.5 fWAR. By fWAR he'd be the worst Hall of Fame pick since Lou Brock at 43.8 fWAR. However, when you really look at the underlying numbers, he actually measures up really well with a lot of guys who are already in the Hall or are locks to be elected. The difference? Team. He played on some really, really ****ty teams for most of his career. Can you imagine what his numbers would look like if he'd been on the Yankees for most of his career or hitting in front of David Ortiz in Boston? How many times has he hit a double in his career and gotten stuck because the hitters behind him didn't know which end of the bat to hold? How many more RBIs would he have with Derek Jeter or Dustin Pedroia hitting in front of him instead of Alberto Callaspo and Nate McLouth? He probably won't get in but he's an interesting player to discuss and I hope he gets to the milestones.
 
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JVHaste

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2015
4,751
270
Vancouver WA
Rose, Jeter, ARod, Ichiro, Pu-Manchu, Beltre, Raffy. I think thats it... most of those will be in the Hall within a few years.
 

smapdi

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
4,397
221
He's having by far his best year. Almost suspiciously so. But good for him. It's a contract year for him, but I don't believe people can just "turn it on" and hit 35 points above their career average just for one season like that. And yes, if he hits those numbers he will force serious consideration, but it may not be automatic. They made Biggio wait a couple years with 3000 hits, and he was on the whole more accomplished and decorated than Markakis is so far, with Gold Gloves, All-Star games at multiple positions, and MVP votes. Markakis is just getting to his first ASG this year, with a couple gold gloves. I think he'd have to pass 300 homers, too, and have some more personal accolades. Otherwise he could be the answer to a trivia question.
 
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