Thoughts on the value of a 2006 BC Longoria Red Ref Auto

Topnotchsy · Jul 23, 2013

Not something I often do, but I was hoping for some help in valuing a card.

I have been considering purchasing a 2006 BC Evan Longoria Red Ref Auto, and was trying to determine a price.

For reference:

A gold ref 8.5 did not sell in auction beginning at $550 this past week. (A raw got $620 a month ago)
A blue ref. 9.5 went for $346
An Xfractor BIN went for $180.
base Chrome BIN's have been all over the place but auctions seem to be getting around $75-$85.

Any help is appreciated.

longbomberz · Jul 23, 2013

My snap reaction was $2000, but I am far from an expert on his stuff.

SydBarrett · Jul 23, 2013

longbomberz said:
My snap reaction was $2000, but I am far from an expert on his stuff.

My general rule of thumb is five times orange, I might be crazy but I think you are a little bit low, I would say more around $2500.

Topnotchsy · Jul 23, 2013

SydBarrett said:
My general rule of thumb is five times orange, I might be crazy but I think you are a little bit low, I would say more around $2500.

5x orange, or 5x gold? If it's orange the number would be quite a bit higher. Thanks!

uniquebaseballcards · Jul 23, 2013

Longo: on an unpopular team destined for the Hall of Good to Very Good. Next to impossible to judge value here because its tough to tell if anyone's floating that red refractor market.

Are red refractor owners really frustrated non-superfractor owners? Its hard to tell.

SydBarrett · Jul 23, 2013

Topnotchsy said:
5x orange, or 5x gold? If it's orange the number would be quite a bit higher. Thanks!

Sorry, gold.

Considering you are purchasing I would be happy if I could get that for $2500, if I was selling I would try for closer to $3000 so somewhere in the middle is where you're probably going to be.

nosterbor · Jul 24, 2013

It is worth what someone is willing to pay. I would pay 5 bucks, so it is worth 5 bucks.

joeya2001 · Jul 24, 2013

nosterbor said:
It is worth what someone is willing to pay. I would pay 5 bucks, so it is worth 5 bucks.

Troll

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jwc9p · Jul 24, 2013

Are his base chromes really going for $75-85? I have no idea so I really am just asking. Longoria is a great player and I get the fascination with the chase to find the super, but those prices seem ridiculously high for a base chrome of anyone.

boomo · Jul 24, 2013

ungraded blue is about 240? if so red is 3000-3500

PoseyBuster · Jul 24, 2013

It's still not 100% that his super is in a sealed box though right?

200lbhockeyplayer · Jul 24, 2013

Honest question...what exactly about Evan Longoria screams "$2500+ investment"?

He seems to peak at 30+ HR, 100 RBI, .280 AVG. All Star? Sure. Legend? Perhaps. HOFer? Nope.

Again, not slagging him as he's clearly a great player...but I don't understand the thought process in investing $2500+ into a single card of a guy that isn't close to HOF potential.

PoseyBuster · Jul 24, 2013

200lbhockeyplayer said:
Honest question...what exactly about Evan Longoria screams "$2500+ investment"?

He seems to peak at 30+ HR, 100 RBI, .280 AVG. All Star? Sure. Legend? Nope. HOFer? Nope.

Again, not slagging him as he's clearly a great player...but I don't understand the thought process in investing $2500+ into a single card of a guy that isn't close to HOF potential.

He's still "young" If he keeps his current production up, and even gets a higher mid career peak, he could definitely be a "legend" or "HoFer", especially if he ever gets traded to a big market team, that would only help his hobby value.

Aren't the Yankees looking for a new Third Baseman?

SydBarrett · Jul 24, 2013

200lbhockeyplayer said:
Honest question...what exactly about Evan Longoria screams "$2500+ investment"?

He seems to peak at 30+ HR, 100 RBI, .280 AVG. All Star? Sure. Legend? Perhaps. HOFer? Nope.

Again, not slagging him as he's clearly a great player...but I don't understand the thought process in investing $2500+ into a single card of a guy that isn't close to HOF potential.

I definitely don't think that he is an investment player, at the same time I think he is one of the most entertaining players to watch every day and if I had to choose a third baseman to Super collect (not named Seager) it would be Longoria.

200lbhockeyplayer · Jul 24, 2013

SydBarrett said:
I definitely don't think that he is an investment player, at the same time I think he is one of the most entertaining players to watch every day and if I had to choose a third baseman to Super collect (not named Seager) it would be Longoria.

I totally agree with that Kyle, I guess I'm just looking at the dollar figure needed to acquire a red and just curious as to the thought process of "why?"

For $2500 you could get 4 cases of 2006 Bowman Draft and chase the Super (if we're to believe it hasn't been hit yet) and still hit whatever Kershaw and Longoria autographs, Chris Davis singles among others.

uniquebaseballcards · Jul 24, 2013

One problem with much of Longo's card values is that they aren't entirely based on actual production or future investment potential. A lot of the value of his current card prices comes as a result of past investment hype.

There are other players whose value come as a result of past hype and not realized or future potential - the kinds of players that people don't understand why the heck people are paying so much for.

This certainly isn't to say he isn't a solid player to collect or buy, it just means he's currently overvalued. But who knows, maybe he'll do something miraculous in the WS some day - but this kind of potential accomplishment isn't built into the current value of his cards or anyone else's really.

Basically cards aren't worth what someone pays for it if they're overvalued - the market sometimes gets distorted, hopefully a correction will come about.

ktothep · Jul 24, 2013

I'd be interested of what people think on this topic also, since I own one graded BGS 9. I still think it should've been a gem, but such is life.

Bill Menard · Jul 24, 2013

I agree, should he move to another team in a high profile market, he'd see a marked increase in value, BUT he has a very nice contract with TB that he just extended in 2012 that adds 10 years with them. I really don't think he's going anywhere and would agree that $2500 for a /5 auto of established player who has shown you what he's got is just too much to drop now.

PoseyBuster said:
He's still "young" If he keeps his current production up, and even gets a higher mid career peak, he could definitely be a "legend" or "HoFer", especially if he ever gets traded to a big market team, that would only help his hobby value.

Aren't the Yankees looking for a new Third Baseman?

uniquebaseballcards · Jul 24, 2013

Bill Menard said:
I agree, should he move to another team in a high profile market, he'd see a marked increase in value, BUT he has a very nice contract with TB that he just extended in 2012 that adds 10 years with them. I really don't think he's going anywhere and would agree that $2500 for a /5 auto of established player who has shown you what he's got is just too much to drop now.

The card would be showing him in another team's uniform though, so would the 'marked increase in value', if it occurs, last?

For instance, I don't see many Yankee fans suddenly wanting to shell out big bucks on a card showing a Tampa Bay Ray (even though he wasn't on the Rays' roster then, but...).

alexs64 · Jul 24, 2013

Does this help or hurt in any way?

2006 Bowman Chrome Clayton Kershaw Auto Red Refractor 2 5 RC | eBay

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