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$1,000 + PSA 10 common card prices! Will they hold their value?

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mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
For starters, we'll use 1986 Topps as our subject. The black portion of the card at the top can make it a bit difficult to find a PSA 10 worthy card, but since it is a junk wax era card, you have millions of shots at each card.

A fellow collector that goes by the name of jordangretzkyfan has a quest to build PSA 10 sets of all the 80s sets by busting box after box - he has been documenting his progress in pictures on a forum (which shall remain nameless out of respect for this forum!)

jordangretzkyfan.jpg


I decided to look into prices of a few of these cards in PSA 10 form. It's no secret that there are likely millions of these printed, but just to show you how readily available they are in raw form, check out the '86 Topps Nolan Ryan just from COMC alone:

nolan2.jpg


180 of them ready to be sent to your mailbox at any given time for about a buck a pop.

The pop report of PSA 10 Ryan shows 91.

nolanpop.jpg


Now check out the PSA 10 sold prices ....

nolan.jpg


This isn't just for Nolan, either! (Ryno has 7 PSA 10 '86 Topps in the pop report.)

sandberg.jpg


Heck, even Eric Davis!

davis.jpg


If you think this is exclusive to 1986 Topps, think again. (This is just one of MANY examples.)

sparky.jpg


To be fair, the pop report is much, MUCH lower for these guys than Ryan, but even if these had pop reports of 1, I would have never guessed the prices would be this high. All of this research leads me to one thought:

1986 Topps will never be made again. PSA 10 cards however, will. Throughout the years, more and more PSA 10 cards will pop up.

Since there really is no "cap" to how many PSA 10 cards there will be in the future, do you think the high prices of junk wax PSA 10 cards will hold their value, increase or decrease? Will their numbers rise higher than the collectors of them, making the prices drop? Or will the higher prices spark the interest of more people, thus causing their prices to rise if the supply simply can't keep up?

What are your thoughts? I'm curious to hear what you think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryJ69Y58Rio

https://tanmanbaseballfan.com/2019/02/1000-psa-10-common-card-prices-will-they-hold-their-value.html
 

Letch77

Well-known member
Jan 28, 2018
1,608
353
Midwest
Pretty insane that a couple dollar card will sell for hundreds just because it's a PSA 10. I get it, PSA 10 is the cream of the crop, but it doesn't make sense to me to overpay for something just because "there are none higher" as the slogan goes. That seems like a case of OCD. I think junk wax PSA 10s will decline in value, simply because that was right around the time that people starting taking better care of their cards and, like you said, there are still thousands of unopened wax that may contain several PSA 10s.

Furthermore, I think it's a little nuts to send in a $1, $2, $3 card in the hopes that it gets a 10. What if it comes back a 9? Then you've just wasted your money on a fancy case encapsulation (for which you could have bought 15 one touches). Just my couple of cents' worth.
 

BBCgalaxee

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2011
6,475
59
Obviously, to each their own but paying $1000 for a modern dime card just because it's a 10 is crazy.

At least paying $30k for a Rickey rookie makes sense since it has value raw and is of a legendary hof.

And you can't but 1980 boxes for $15 buy the pallet.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Freedom Card Board mobile app
 

mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
Pretty insane that a couple dollar card will sell for hundreds just because it's a PSA 10. I get it, PSA 10 is the cream of the crop, but it doesn't make sense to me to overpay for something just because "there are none higher" as the slogan goes. That seems like a case of OCD. I think junk wax PSA 10s will decline in value, simply because that was right around the time that people starting taking better care of their cards and, like you said, there are still thousands of unopened wax that may contain several PSA 10s.

Furthermore, I think it's a little nuts to send in a $1, $2, $3 card in the hopes that it gets a 10. What if it comes back a 9? Then you've just wasted your money on a fancy case encapsulation (for which you could have bought 15 one touches). Just my couple of cents' worth.

Don't discount this, Letch! If you send your couple of cents in for grading, and they come back a 10, they could be worth a whole lot more! LOL
 

raddison1972

Member
Jan 4, 2013
63
0
Pearland, Texas
mouschi,
Thanks for sharing. I've wondered about this too and being a collector of some of these cards, I'll share my thoughts. One it's much easier to buy a PSA 10 card already graded than getting one to grade out yourself. I think this drives initial pricing. If it's a HOF player or somebody many people collect, this will help drive price as well. Two, if it's a player with many collectors, then the price will probably stay up there for some time until you saturate your market. Using Nolan Ryan as your example, I'd say there are far more people than 91 willing to pay a premium for a GEM MINT 86 Nolan Ryan card, so prices should continue to stay high for him. I agree with you the opportunity to get more 10's is out there and would ultimately drive prices down after saturating the market. It appears there is some opportunity in the short term in my opinion especially for HOF players and other cards that wind up on PSA set registry collections. I'd even venture that minor stars with low populations would be decent regional sales. National is in Chi-town this year, Sandberg will sell good for sure, but why not Ron Cey, Leon Durham or Jody Davis. I'm guessing you'll have a better opportunity to sell them in Chicago than other towns...although WGN was all over the country I think back in 86, so maybe others heard the great Harry Carey sing the Jody Davis song. Hmmm, now I might need to get some Jody Davis cards graded!!

Anyways, thought I'd share and thanks for posting!
 

finestkind

Well-known member
Aug 17, 2008
3,986
901
Massachusetts
Ten or 15 years from now he might have a pile of plastic with a piece cardboard inside that he spent a boat load of money on. Especially on the junk era cards. When he goes to show people his collection most people might say oh that's nice and just walk away. Others might say what the hell is wrong with you ? All that money on junk cards ? Hey, it's his money. If it makes him happy. More power to him. If it's about the PSA set registry thing. To me, that's just bragging rights for people with the deepest pockets. Yes, I know a higher graded card or set will bring tons more money. But what's he going to get for a return for his money when he tries to sell any of it ?
 

mrmopar

Member
Jan 19, 2010
6,187
4,087
Makes sense to who? The few people who can afford to and are willing to pay that? I think most average collectors would generally disagree that this makes any sense whatsoever!

Obviously, to each their own but paying $1000 for a modern dime card just because it's a 10 is crazy.

At least paying $30k for a Rickey rookie makes sense since it has value raw and is of a legendary hof.

And you can't but 1980 boxes for $15 buy the pallet.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Freedom Card Board mobile app

I think the grading game is just another way to show off how big your _ _ _ _ is to a fair number of people participating in that market and people love to show off, especially when they have money to burn. Hard to say if the value will always be there. People have made some pretty good points that a collector base for cards in general may not be here in the not all that distant future. Only time will tell if cards remain a popular item for generations to come. I think they are doomed personally, especially considering how obsolete some items have become in just a short time during the average collectors lifespan. People are buying digital cards after all. Explain the reasoning behind that? Pure Genius on Topps' part!

If people are willing to spend many many times more than they would have to for what is deemed a pristine copy of something, more power to them. I'll stick with my affordable and acceptable to the eye cards.
 

cardcop05

New member
Nov 15, 2018
64
0
NYC
Pretty insane that a couple dollar card will sell for hundreds just because it's a PSA 10. I get it, PSA 10 is the cream of the crop, but it doesn't make sense to me to overpay for something just because "there are none higher" as the slogan goes.

Sooner or later (likely sooner), people will STOP collecting graded cards altogether; except perhaps RICH collectors who collect pre-1973 cards only. We've already seen BOTH PSA & BGS completely change their grading standards which makes nearly all of one version worth more than the other version. PSA changed their standards to far stricter when they added the front hologram. BGS changed their grading standards around 2006 LOWERING their standards. Then they have that STUPID autograph grade that gets a "10" 99.5% (approximately) of the time when it doesn't deserve a "10" 50% of the time it gets a "10" ten! Can someone explain that to me?

Because of all the shiftness I've seen starting with PSA & PSA/DNA, I'd never get any of my cards graded by them. Same goes for BGS for similar reasons. I could have made so much more money selling my cards if I had them graded, but money is not anywhere near my main goal in this hobby and never was. I'd be cheating anyone I sold a card to that was graded incorrectly, and you know there are so many cards out there with improper grades.

The long-time collectors should remember when BGS just chose a random number for the SURFACE grade; this was from the day they started until around 2003. I personally had (8) cards that were graded by BGS during this period; a few graded to review for my website, and Pacific football had a promotion where there were inserts with points on a perforated card end that could be torn off. If you sent in TEN points, you got a BGS card graded for free (free shipping & insurance too!). I got (5) cards graded this way. Three of the cards came back with INSANE Surface grades. I personally have always graded as strictly as BGS originally did (except for the dumb surface grades).
So I called BGS and told them about the three cards with unexplainable Surface grades, they said to return them and if just one has to be regraded they'd pay for all shipping & insurance costs. ALL THREE WERE REGRADED BY A SUPERVISOR INCREASING THE SURFACE GRADE BY 1-2 FULL POINTS! This increased the overall grades so that all three cards wound up being 9's. How could I ever trust BGS again?

The only BGS cards in my collection cost me nothing to get graded and that's the way it will always be. This is just my opinion, but I think way too many people have greed on their minds so they get far too many cards graded. If it weren't for BGS, Beckett would have went bankrupt a LONG TIME AGO! Yet now they grade just a little stricter than the old way PSA used to grade. Yet BGS raised prices, now offer no subgrades (for a little discount) and their graded key cards are worth only 10% of the same key card grades by PSA???

IT MAKES NO SENSE TO GET CARDS GRADED!
 

AnthonyCorona

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2014
9,600
68
Modesto, CA
While I agree grading is a scam, I cannot see it going away. Both PSA and bgs has well documented mistakes, especially grading altered cards yet they’re both backed up bigly. Let’s face it, this hobby has mostly become a business. I’m guilty of it too, but a lot of people buy something hoping to flip for a profit down the line. Outside of a few Player collections, all my purchases are made thinking a player or card is undervalued. A lot of people are ONLY in this for money (I don’t have a problem with that) and a Bgs 9.5/10 sells for a lot more than raw, I cannot see grading going away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

smapdi

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2008
4,397
221
They hold their value till another one is graded. Slab populations are another form of manufactured scarcity, and people pay accordingly for scarcity. But while card makers limit the number of cards printed to create demand, grading pops only go up. Prices paid for that kind of scarcity is building a house on shifting sand.

Personally, I can't see grading going away, or a widespread return to the old process of just getting a card and then upgrading later if you find a better copy. Collectors have taken to heart the idea that there is something different between a 9.5 and a 10, or that there are major differences between 9.5s. And just as a segment of the hobby needs someone else to tell them what is a rookie card according to some arbitrary rules, they need someone else to tell them what condition a card is in.
 

BigAppleJak

Member
Aug 8, 2008
990
2
Grading is a necessary evil at this point.
What originally made the hobby fun when discussing / debating a card's condition face to face with another collector at a show has devolved into a marketplace where if the card isn't slabbed chances are the on-line buyer is going to find something to complain about, regardless of the scans o description...progress, meh.
 

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