Thoughts on the value of a 2006 BC Longoria Red Ref Auto

alexs64 said:

Does this help or hurt in any way?

2006 Bowman Chrome Clayton Kershaw Auto Red Refractor 2 5 RC | eBay

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I was going to post before and say closer 3k for a Bgs 9. I think Longo has potential for the card to go further but i think his stock has dropped a bit, about 20 to 25% less than Kershaws.

alexs64 said:

Does this help or hurt in any way?

2006 Bowman Chrome Clayton Kershaw Auto Red Refractor 2 5 RC | eBay

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Interesting sale. With that ending price, it almost makes $2500 for Longoria almost seem reasonable. I agree that Longoria has pretty much shown us what he's got. But maybe since he is still just 27, there might be an uptick still to come. Regardless, he's shown himself to be a excellent fielding 3B (based on UZR) who consistently has a 140 OPS+. If he keeps that pace through the rest of his prime (28-32) with a natural decline following his prime, he ends his career as a borderline HOFer. And if he is a career Ray, he probably gets in since it seems there are enough writers who give that weight. All said, I'm guessing there probably is a market for a Red Longoria somewhere in the $2000 - $2500 range.

I posted to help with the thread, I don't have an opinion on it either way, I was hoping it 'could' help shed light on the Longo value. With that said, i agree with both posts above this.

uniquebaseballcards said:

Longo: on an unpopular team destined for the Hall of Good to Very Good. Next to impossible to judge value here because its tough to tell if anyone's floating that red refractor market.

Are red refractor owners really frustrated non-superfractor owners? Its hard to tell.

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Have you ever made a non-biased post? Enjoy your veteran 1/1s but this topic clearly isn't your specialty, so leave it to people that actually have a clue.

uniquebaseballcards said:

Are red refractor owners really frustrated non-superfractor owners? Its hard to tell.

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Lets not sound too much like a pompous arrogant XXXX.

"The card would be showing him in another team's uniform though, so would the 'marked increase in value', if it occurs, last? "

I have never heard of anyone else complaining about this issue, let alone as much as you harp on it. Give it up please.

Krom said:

Lets not sound too much like a pompous arrogant XXXX.

"The card would be showing him in another team's uniform though, so would the 'marked increase in value', if it occurs, last? "

I have never heard of anyone else complaining about this issue, let alone as much as you harp on it. Give it up please.

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So you think it's pompous to ask if the team on the card matters?

Funny you've posted on these boards for as long as you have and don't know about team collectors... and whether a team collector would want to drop a bunch of money on a player not pictured on the team of choice.

uniquebaseballcards said:

So you think it's pompous to ask if the team on the card matters?

Funny you've posted on these boards for as long as you have and don't know about team collectors... and whether a team collector would want to drop a bunch of money on a player not pictured on the team of choice.

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The pompous remark was about the red/super comment i quoted above.

uniquebaseballcards said:

Longo: on an unpopular team destined for the Hall of Good to Very Good. Next to impossible to judge value here because its tough to tell if anyone's floating that red refractor market.

Are red refractor owners really frustrated non-superfractor owners? Its hard to tell.

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Joshua.Roundtree said:

Have you ever made a non-biased post? Enjoy your veteran 1/1s but this topic clearly isn't your specialty, so leave it to people that actually have a clue.

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Sorry to rain on your parade but let's look at a few things.

Would not having a 2006 Longo BC Super auto around cause the price of the reds #/5 to increase? Is Longo an obscure prospect or a veteran himself? Did you look to see how many bids were floating that Kershaw red auction linked to in this very thread?

Lastly, who has more 1/1 BC autos - you or me?

Krom said:

The pompous remark was about the red/super comment i quoted above.

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Word has it that there isn't a super out there. So aren't the people buying the reds frustrated, wishing the super was available? How is this pompous?

Being pictured in a different uni does not hurt your market value (i.e. Pujos, Miguel Cabrera, I know Santana rookies shot up when he went to NY, etc.)

Just because you own a bunch of 1/1s (do you have anything close to Longoria stature?) does not mean you know more than someone who doesn't own any of them. Just the same as you thinking you know better than everyone else, does not in fact, make you know better than anyone else.

flightposite said:

Being pictured in a different uni does not hurt your market value (i.e. Pujos, Miguel Cabrera, I know Santana rookies shot up when he went to NY, etc.)

Just because you own a bunch of 1/1s (do you have anything close to Longoria stature?) does not mean you know more than someone who doesn't own any of them. Just the same as you thinking you know better than everyone else, does not in fact, make you know better than anyone else.

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Edit - no need for any pompous attitude Unique.

If you can get closer to $2k, prob at least have some room if market changes downward.

Question Ill pose because of the SuperFractor discussion. If someone has a 2010 Super Non Auto , and they also have a 2013 Super Auto version, would you consider the auto more still even 3 years later than a BDP non auto?

Ryan

I think hes a popular really good player on a out of market team . looking how the economy is I am saying 1500-1800 tops. maybe less. I am no expert just my opinion.

200lbhockeyplayer said:

Honest question...what exactly about Evan Longoria screams "$2500+ investment"?

He seems to peak at 30+ HR, 100 RBI, .280 AVG. All Star? Sure. Legend? Perhaps. HOFer? Nope.

Again, not slagging him as he's clearly a great player...but I don't understand the thought process in investing $2500+ into a single card of a guy that isn't close to HOF potential.

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I would put Legend above HOF'er - and don't see any reason Longoria can't be a HOF'er.

Wes said:

I would put Legend above HOF'er - and don't see any reason Longoria can't be a HOF'er.

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Legend was a poor word choice on my part, should have been something like "superstar" a la a Don Mattingly, etc. Guys that were big-time stars for their era, but not spanning into generational stars.

That said, Longoria's 162 average up to this point is .276 AVG, .876 OPS, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 166 H...and while those are great numbers, they don't scream "HOF" to me. That said, let's assume that he has 6 solid years left with those numbers so age 33 totals will be .276 AVG, .876 OPS, 349 HR, 1190 RBI, 1751 H. Even if he plays another 6 years after that he's not likely to hit any of the big milestones voters like to see. We'll also need a couple "huge" years so that he can hopefully get an MVP and some top-5 MVP votes.

I just can't see him on a realistic HOF path at the moment, so these next 6 years will determine everything.

I may be the minority here but I think 2k-2500 would be a great deal and maybe even a borderline steal for that card if you're ok holding long term. Longoria is an established All Star (when healthy) and still has some great years ahead of him assuming 28-32 will be his prime, as it is for most players.

I've had a lot of luck with buying rare cards, listing with high BIN prices and fielding offers. Sometimes you get a nice sale for a big profit, sometimes you wait a long time just to have to wait longer. For an ultra rare, low numbered chrome auto like a red ref auto of a player like Longoria, I'd be willing to bet someone would come at you with $3-$5k at some point over the next 5 years. I agree with [MENTION=2209]200lbhockeyplayer[/MENTION] that he's unlikely to be a HOFer, but for card values over the next 5 years, that doesn't necessarily matter. Regardless of team, he's still well-known and well-liked (he's been a top 20 selling MLB jersey a couple times if I'm not mistaken), and he is the face of the Rays so whenever they make the playoffs, he will be the first person people think and talk about.

I'd bet that someone will get antsy and throw out a big offer if you are patient. I'd list it a 6999 and wait to see what happens.

I actually think the POSSIBLE NONEXISTANCE (I think it's in product somewhere, and my buddy has 10 cases in his closet.) makes the 06 red auto's price INCREASE, since it would technically be the rarest 1st bowman chrome auto of him.

But again, I think it's in product somewhere still. Also- I think a solid 10-25% of his 06 chrome price is due to the fact that he's one of the best from the product, all star player, AND the amount of press and attention the whole superfractor fiasco has brought.

Just wanted to thank everyone for their opinions. One of the things that's great about this board is that there's little concern that there will be "groupthink." There's so many divergent opinions and reading it gave me a ton to think about.

Since I have not come to a conclusion about buying the card yet, the thoughts I have on Longoria as a player:

Some have mentioned he is not on pace for a HOF career. I'm not sure that this is the case. In each of his 3 full seasons he's had a WAR (as per baseball-reference) of above 7 and he should get around there this season. He also had his rookie season which was not a full season but he still had a WAR of 5. He's also a lifetime 138 OPS+ which is pretty impressive. On the other hand, he's a .280/35/100 guy which is certainly solid, but not really spectacular. He's 27 now, so he's probably right around his peak as far as the numbers.

He does have the added benefit that he is an extremely popular young player, which definitely helps, and the Rays have a good shot at the Playoffs, which could get him some press.

Between the two sides, still deliberating so any more thoughts would be awesome.

Decided to go for it. Not sure what my plan is when I get it (may look to see what I can get for it since he's not exactly on the top of my list of guys I was looking for and I am looking to keep the collection manageable) or may hold for October. Will post scans when it arrives.

Really appreciate the input!

Great card, great purchase around or below $3K in my opinion. (assuming no condition issues)

He's as likely a HOFer as anyone else at mid-career, and very popular and collectible.

I think nearly 5K for the Kershaw red is quite high and that card would settle in the 2-3K range.

Looking forward to scans.