Alex Rodriguez and his final Home Run total

[leatherman]

After thirteen straight 30 HR seasons, Arod seemed destined to pass Barry Bonds and end his career as the all time HR king. At 35 years old and 613 career HRs (at the end of the 2010 season), most fans assumed the title would one day be his. However, at age 37, he no longer is hitting HRs at the same rate, and his last two HR totals of 16 last season and just 15 so far this year leaves him with only 644 career HRs.

762 now seems far away for Arod, as he is 118 HRs short. His falloff isn't unprecedented. In fact, it should be expected. In the past, most players had declining seasons after age 35, and it was the rare exception that a player would continue to produce at high levels. Arod is signed through the next five seasons (in which he is due to receive $114 million), but he would have to average 24 HRs per season to pass Bonds. I just don't see it happening.

Here are the only players in history with three or more seasons of 20 HRs after turning 37:

Rk                   Yrs
1        Barry Bonds   5
2      Dave Winfield   4
3      Darrell Evans   4
4         Hank Aaron   4
5       Ted Williams   4
6          Jim Thome   3
7       Craig Biggio   3
8    Rafael Palmeiro   3
9       Steve Finley   3
10    Edgar Martinez   3
11      Eddie Murray   3
12         Babe Ruth   3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/4/2012.


So where do you think Arod ends up for his career?

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Two things come to mind immediately - 1) he's signed through 2017 for big money and 2) he's playing for the Yankees who, like it or not, are associated with baseball history more than any other franchise.

I know its a big IF, but IF he can stay at 15-20 home runs/year he'll stay until he's at or close to the Yankee with the most HRs - Ruth. But I think he'll break 700 but fall a little shy of the 714 however given recent trends, I think the Yanks really want him to break 700, but don't really care for him breaking Ruth's record.

I think people are forgetting that he's going to break 3K hits next year assuming he stays healthy.

Its amazing how much tougher the game is post 30 - especially when the player started playing at 18... its great for people to remember this.

 

[matfanofold]

I really think arod still has a couple 30+ seasons coming up, and if he can stay relatively healthy I think he will break the record for fun over the next 5 years despite the last 2..

 

[HPC]

I still think it is very possible and probable that he will break Bonds' total, barring a major injury

 

[shayscards79]

I think about 700 is possible, but I don't see him breaking the record.

Which is too bad imo, even considering how much of a dbag that his is, Id still like to see him have the record intead of Bonds.

 

[Austin]

I think Arod will fall short of the record*.
A few years ago, most of us were hoping ARod or Griffey would pass Bonds.
Now Griffey is retired, and ARod is as much a cheater as Bonds was.
I wish Aaron still had the record.

(And I don't want to read Emalo's or someone's defense of Arod, or that Aaron used greenies and was never tested for PEDs. Who cares. At least he wasn't busted for it like Arod or admitted he unkowingly took it like Bonds).

 

[HPC]

I think Arod will fall short of the record*.
A few years ago, most of us were hoping ARod or Griffey would pass Bonds.
Now Griffey is retired, and ARod is as much a cheater as Bonds was.
I wish Aaron still had the record.

(And I don't want to read Emalo's or someone's defense of Arod, or that Aaron used greenies and was never tested for PEDs. Who cares. At least he wasn't busted for it like Arod or admitted he unkowingly took it like Bonds).

Ignorance is bliss for some, I guess

 

[ThoseBackPages]

i hope he does it

 

[leatherman]

It's interesting to see that only 3 of 26 voters think that he will break the record. If I had asked this question three or four years ago, I would guess it would have been closer to 50%.

 

[gmsieb]

Knowing he was cheating, since at least Texas, I don't really care where he ends up. I was a big fan early on, but I lost all respect for the guy. Not just for the roids, but how he handled it. My guess is his body will continue to break down. Knee and back injuries don't get better with age. Roids kill the joints and they don't recover. Big Mac, another guy I really like, but lost all respect for, retired because of his knees. Arod will do the same. At some point it will start hurting to much for him to be out there. Sad to see him go out that way. I don't think Jeter catches rose, but Jeter has a better chance at rose, than arod has at Aaron or bonds. arod will should catch Ruth, but will anyone care???

No chance at breaking the record.

 

[scotty216brs]

Not going to break the record but he WILL play until he gets to 700, no doubt.....however long that takes....

 

[matfanofold]

I think he is going to break the record in 4 years or less, make a run for 800!

 

[Anthony K.]

Based on his last few seasons, I see him passing the 714 mark.

Even if he only hits 15 per year over the rest of the contract, you are still getting 75 homers, which would put him at 719.

I just don't see him staying healthy enough, the rest of his career, to beat out Bonds' mark.