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Do you think that sports card sales will stay strong or do you think a fall is coming?

mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,081
116
I see some softening on newer stuff, especially as more copies continue to "flood" the market. Case in point, although I have yet to nab one yet. 2021 Heritage Garvey auto. The base is a $20-25 card in my opinion. This is based solely on my experience with Garvey autos. I know that Heritage is a very popular set, but the card does not appear to be that hard to find, yet copies first hitting the market were topping $100. I see this with all of the new Garvey stuff. all of the sudden after YEARS of very little competition for most everything that hits the market, people are throwing money at Garvey cards. It doesn't always stand out, because we are not talking Trout or Jordan totals, but it is seriously higher than it should be.

Now I am seeing a lot of Heritage autos ending up in the $50 range. I had been offering $45 plus s/h to a variety of people selling with BO, but nobody has taken it and several have countered. Now that they have seemingly cooled, my $45 offer is no longer of interest to me. I am thinking maybe $30-35, but I bet if I wait long enough, I can nab a copy at $20. It just may be in 2022.

Now the red ink version is 72 copies. I have said this several times already, 72 might as well be 10,000 in todays market. That is not "limited". It is, but it isn't, anyone collecting for many years will understand. We have reset our expectations since 1991 nd the 10K Elites, which coincidentally are still outperforming most nevwer cards with print runs of 100 or less. Explain that goofy one. i have yet to see a red sell for under $100. To me, that is just stupid. Again, any other year and a Garvey auto /75 should settle into the $15-20 range. Give it a little boost, being a collectible set and red inks are well collected. The Clubhouse relic/Au is /25. That should be a $40 max auto. Most are listed at $200+.

I think all of this will self correct sooner than later and leave a bunch of people crying about their buys. My favorite example is the Zach McKinstry scenario. When I was first trying to get him, as he is one of 3 I still need for the Dodger roster collection, I was missing out at somewhere between $10-35 (for the red /25). Now base cards are selling for $100+ and reds have sold for as high as $300! I thought the Panini issue would water that down and I was again missing them in the $12-15 range, before those spiked to over $100 each too! Scratching my head, wondering how there are actually that many clueless people out there buying these up. I hope for everyone's sake that I am wrong (except me), but mark my words, these will fall in price fiercely.

Last thought. I watched the Jackie Robinson Leaf RC slowly and steadily rise into the 5 figure range and then in the last couple months start to skyrocket. I just happen to check when PWCC was selling (2) PSA 4 copies and one went for $35K and the other around $28K. This was a sharp increase from the last sale a month earlier that were in the high teens. As I was telling non-collecting neighbors about this crazy climb, I decided to look for any more recent sales of the same PSA 4 Robinson and was surprised/disappointed/or whatever else comes to mind that they had DROPPED, the last couple selling in the low - mid $20K range! If any card deserved it's meteoric rise, I felt it was this one. Of course, it seems PWCC is the only seller selling copies of this card and they had a bunch. I am not in the market to sell mine quite yet but it was fun to say I had a $35K card if for only a bit.
these can be a bit tricky, though - eye appeal is everything when it comes to vintage. that's why you can have a 33 goudey psa 2 ruth selling for 10k and another selling for 40k.
 
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Set_Collector

New member
Feb 17, 2021
6
6
All very good points....

What is different in this market as with other tangible goods markets is that investors can only make $ when prices go up....at least I am not aware of how you can "short" baseball cards or even NFTs. That would make the market truly fluid - let's hope it doesn't get to that. I don't believe other markets can do that - art, coins, stamps, other collectibles. So demand is truly driving price increase and unless demand drops (shift away from cards from investors/collectors) prices should stay reasonably high or even go higher.
 

craig.gunter.66

New member
Mar 4, 2014
5
14
As we all know, a lot of sports card sales have been through the roof for the past couple of months but I can't help but think that a crash could be coming. I say that because it seems like everyone and their brother, even those who aren't really big sports fans, seem to be getting into collecting/investing in cards. I have several cards that I've been debating selling but just can't pull the trigger as I'm still not sure what to think. Do you think that the sports card hobby will stay hot similar to the stock market or do you think it's head for a crash and if so, why?

A nice YouTube video showed data from the artificial inflation boom of 2016 in the industry. (Vintage Card Collector) He was highlighting the rising prices then with the supposition that fake and shill building was artificially manipulating the market and raising prices on cards. What was interesting was the artificial bubble popped, but prices still rose above the “pre” fake/inflated/artificially created values…and still do. All this to say the rise will slow, but never return to pre-COVID levels as before…my prediction.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

mrmopar

Member
Jan 19, 2010
4,423
771
I reread my post and saw the 21 Garvey Heritage comment. They dropped into the $20 range, like I said they should sell for. They have come back up some because there are not 3-4 ending each day like when the product was new, but I think I ended up getting one for as low as $18 if i recall.

Still, there seems to be a lot of regular stuff selling for much more than it has in the past and should sell for, given the past history of similar items. The "uninformed" money has not dried up completely it seems.
 

jmc855

Member
Jan 11, 2013
62
35
RI
I reread my post and saw the 21 Garvey Heritage comment. They dropped into the $20 range, like I said they should sell for. They have come back up some because there are not 3-4 ending each day like when the product was new, but I think I ended up getting one for as low as $18 if i recall.

Still, there seems to be a lot of regular stuff selling for much more than it has in the past and should sell for, given the past history of similar items. The "uninformed" money has not dried up completely it seems.
Agree, I'm holding off on many newer Clemens items that are stratospheric for the actual product. 2021 Silver pack Gold Refractor (and Green and Blue too) as an example. It's a 10-15 $ card #d to 50. But the packs are new, being ripped, and delaers specifically are listing them at 50-55 bux when they hit it. Not gonna happen from me. Not a card with longterm value like a Grand Finale, or a 90s Gold Refractor.

One actually SOLD for 24.77, still too high, and another for 34 right after, because the die hard frenzy folks bid it up after that 24.77 one went for BIN. There are 2 more still listed, I've offered the sellers 25-28, they come back in the high 40s. It's just a card, it can wait. So far only 4 of the 50 have hit fleabay on my saved search.

A year or two from now it will be a 10 dollar card for someone who realizes its not something to be buried in the casket with. meanwhile, they can keep them listed in the 50s and be unreasonable. I'll do better with my money on other stuff.
 

mrmopar

Member
Jan 19, 2010
4,423
771
That is funny how the market has developed. Inserts numbered to 100 or even 50 were never all that exciting, especially after the 90s period. Stars were typically a few bucks. It took /25 or less it seems to bring out the real $. I wouldn't even believe people were paying $10, let alone $30 for a regular Clemens insert #'d/50 if you didn't mention it here.

Seems people are very willing to overpay for most stuff now, in my opinion.
 

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