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Help! The Hobby is DYYYINNGGGGG!!!!

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mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
Boy, have times changed. As a kid who grew up in the 80's and 90's, when you would turn on an "oldies" radio station, you might hear songs from Elvis, the Temptations, the Beatles and Johnny Cash. We thought we could re-live how life was for our parents growing up by watching sitcoms such as the Wonder Years.

Fun fact, did you know that THIS is the guy who was the narrator for The Wonder Years?!

home-alone-306451l-imagine.jpg


Yeah, I know! Blew my mind too.

Jokes would flow about asking your parents how it was to have a dinosaur for a pet, or if they could only see black and white back then (a reference to the lack of color television ... I'm proud of that one, thank you very much!)

Just recently, things have gotten real for me. If we take the same time period difference, today's oldies stations would be playing Pearl Jam, Snoop Dogg, Metallica and the Backstreet Boys. The Wonder Years would be about life growing up in the 90's.

The 90's Wonder Years would fondly reminisce about how we old fogies had to actually go to a library to look up information. We would need to either find a pay-phone to make a call or wait until we got home. Computers would be just getting into playing 2" x 2" grainy video in full color (and we would all think it was amazing.)

In a newspaper, you might find an advertisement like this:

1991-Radio-Shack-Ad.jpg


The bizarre thing of it all is that every single one of these things can be done with a single cell phone that most of us have on us at all times. Well...except for when driving, while at the dinner table, or when talking to others ... you aren't on your phone when driving or conversing with others, ARE YOU?!?!?!)

When watching today's movies, I see the "hot young stars" from my youth look not so hot and young anymore. Brad Pitt is an old man, Jennifer Lopez is deeply engulfed into her 40's and many of our baseball heroes from the 80's can be found spouting off nonsensical things via twitter.

I have run into quite a few threads recently online about my beloved hobby - baseball card collecting. Many people online are saying that the hobby is DYING. It is on life support. It has been overtaken by people who want to make a quick buck, and will be cutthroats to get what they want.

Accusations are flying about how group breaks and card flippers are systematically destroying the hobby.

But are they really?

We have all heard it before - about how we got here. Back in the 80's, if you didn't have a Beckett price guide, you were simply clueless. I remember scoffing when someone offered me 25% book value for some cards I brought to them (highway robbery, I tell ya!)

Ebay comes along, and we collectors are met with our first healthy dose of supply and demand. The 1989 Donruss Ken Griffey Jr. rated rookie may have had several price guides back then stating it is $10, but, if 1000 people have them at $10 online, and there are only 48 buyers, what happens to the other 952? The prices drop ..... and drop ... and drop ... until they can be had for $1.50 each.

Boom. "The bottom has dropped out of the card market, and all of our cards are worthless."

I still hear this time and time again from people, but to be perfectly honest, that line is tired. Yeah, cards from 1989 are not worth what they were back in 1989, but get over it. Don't throw the baby out with the '90 donruss. Today's cards can have tremendous value. Far more than what 1989 cards had back in 1989 even.

I know it isn't a popular thing to say, but I'll go ahead and say it: Card companies have done a great job in bringing the hobby along to where it is now. With die cut and insert innovations, to adding game used pieces and pack pulled autographs - brilliant! (Now all they need to do is make some cards like the FOUR ONE release and we'll be all set! :)

Look, 15 years after 1989, we all knew what junk wax was. That is what happens when you produce BILLIONS of a certain set for a year. This is NOT a death sentence for all cards going forward. Today, in 2015, we still look back very fondly at cards from 15+ years ago - and there is still value. Especially the inserts and parallels. Some of the cards I dream of owning are from 15+ years ago.

Now that we have access to ebay, we are now able to get a better understanding of what things truly are worth in real-time. I am not about to disrespect Beckett though - I'm merely saying it has gone from being the card value bible to what its name suggests it is: a guide. Just like ebay.

Ebay is certainly not the card value bible either, as I would venture to say card transactions that occur there are only a small piece of the pie. One thing to realize is that there are still new collectors coming on board, and young adults that are coming back to the hobby as well, after a hiatus due to having a family and starting a career.

Nothing under the sun is new.

Yes, there are tons of people buying just to re-sell cards, and there are prospectors who hoard all of the latest Kris Bryant cards for profit, but that is okay. Let them do their thing, and you do yours. There are bad guys out there trying to put fake patches in cards, and even card companies that have recently come under fire due to the potential fake jersey pieces and autographs, but again - this is nothing new.

When all is said and done, I don't have any charts to prove my point that the hobby is not dying, but I do know that people aren't going to shops or shows as much anymore. I don't think that is an accurate way to taking the pulse of the hobby, though. I think people are just doing what people in 2015 do - they do things online!

There are TONS of people out there who do nothing but stay at their computers all day checking ebay for new treasures and chatting it up with other collectors on card forums. I wouldn't say our hobby is dying. I'd just say it is changing. I do have fond memories of the simplicity of collecting back when I was a kid. And while I sure do miss having my neighborhood friends coming over to trade their Canseco cards for my Will Clark cards, I am now okay with the fact that my new neighborhood trading buddies are thousands of miles away. It may not be as cool as sitting down with someone, but it sure does make getting the mail fun, and takes the sting out of seeing what bills await me as well.

Agree? Disagree? Opinions welcomed!
 

fordman

Well-known member
Feb 22, 2013
3,190
32
Ohio
Just think, the total retail price of the items in the Radio Shack add total $3,285 (+/- a few bucks here in there for tax). Yes, we can do everything that is listed on the add with a cheap $50 Android smartphone/tablet today. So guess you can say the technology store was killed by technology?

I do think there is a over saturation of box breakers. I get 10-15 emails a day from the 30 or so that I have bought cards from on eBay. But, if it wasnt for the breakers, I wonder how many of my PC cards would ever see the light of day? Would Topps/Panini/UD/Leaf/Mouschi make as many as they do if it wasnt for breakers? The mfgs know that the single collector cant afford the $200+ box of cards alone so that's why they love breakers. Breakers seem to be necessary for the hobby right now.

Just my $0.02

Fordman
 

mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
Just think, the total retail price of the items in the Radio Shack add total $3,285 (+/- a few bucks here in there for tax). Yes, we can do everything that is listed on the add with a cheap $50 Android smartphone/tablet today. So guess you can say the technology store was killed by technology?

I do think there is a over saturation of box breakers. I get 10-15 emails a day from the 30 or so that I have bought cards from on eBay. But, if it wasnt for the breakers, I wonder how many of my PC cards would ever see the light of day? Would Topps/Panini/UD/Leaf/Mouschi make as many as they do if it wasnt for breakers? The mfgs know that the single collector cant afford the $200+ box of cards alone so that's why they love breakers. Breakers seem to be necessary for the hobby right now.

Just my $0.02

Fordman

Very interesting points! Great addition.
 

Johnny G

New member
Sep 29, 2008
1,928
0
Jersey Shore
I may have to agree that breakers are necessary as the average Joe can't afford to rip boxes of Immaculate or NT. However, we all want that big pull.
 

mmier118

New member
Jan 29, 2010
536
0
I think you summed it up pretty well. For collectors I don't think the hobby is dying, I have more selection and more options than ever. I just think things are changing and for the better too. In the past i might buy a blaster at wal-mart for $20 but now i can drop $25 into COMC and get multiple jersey cards of many hall of farmers, or a ton of other cool cards. This gives me much more value for my money, but all people see is that wal-mart's card section is disappearing the hobby must be dying.

I just think things are changing as they always do. And for the card market it seems as if the cream is rising to the top and the rest is going the way of all my 90's base cards. As an example I follow the griffey market a bit and his rare 90's inserts have all doubled/tripled in value or more in the last 5 years. From what I hear it's been the same for many other players as well. So while some may say cards are dead I paid $100 for my 89 UD griffey and now it's only worth $15, they aren't really thinking about supply and demand. The demand for that card is still so high that even though they made millions of them, it still can command $15. Not bad in my opinion and griffey's truly rare and desirable cards command many times that. If you want to see what a dead market looks like try collecting stamps. I know someone with a very nice stamp collection and even the stamps that are rare and desired by the few collectors that are left, don't sell or go super cheap just because the demand isn't there.

In summary I think the card collecting market is doing great I have more selection than ever and can have fun collecting at whatever level fits my budget, from putting a few bucks in COMC or spending thousands on babe ruth cards through a major auction house to anywhere in between. The prospecting market will keep doing what it does because people want the next trout, and everyone forgets about or thinks they sold at the top all the Jason heywards and Justin Uptons etc. Prospecting has never stopped, for as long as I've been in the hobby people have moved from Dwight gooden, to Gregg jefferies to kris Bryant, there will always be the next Mickey mantle or hank aaron. The case ripping or box gambling market may be due for a bit of a much needed pullback though.

P.S. I love all of your articles, both your ability to entertain and create thought provoking content are truly unparalleled by anything else in the hobby right now
 
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mouschi

Featured Contributor, Bridging the Gap, Senior Mem
May 18, 2012
3,105
170
Thanks for the kind words!
 

gt2590

Super Moderator
Aug 17, 2008
38,815
3,451
Near Philly
As usual, good stuff man!

I don't even think you're saying the old doomsayers "The hobby is dead" line but every since I'm been hearing it (the '81 sets) all the hobby does in CHANGE, not die...
 

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