- Thread starter
- #1
Arizona Diamondbacks
Org rank: 15
Farm system overview
Dealing Trevor Bauer for 50 cents on the dollar didn't help, nor did failing to get any of Atlanta's top six prospects in the Justin Upton trade, but the Diamondbacks are still very deep in arms and now oddly deep in shortstops who can field but don't get on base. Two solid draft classes have helped, as well as strong work on the development side in taking guys such asMatt Davidson, Adam Eaton and David Holmberg, and helping them exceed the limits of their raw tools.
2013 impact
Eaton and Tyler Skaggs are big league ready, Davidson is close but is now blocked, and they have two starter prospects in Andrew Chafin and Anthony Meo who might be better off in relief roles, where they'd also be close to contributing in the majors.
Sleeper
Stryker Trahan, their 2012 first-rounder, isn't under the radar but has the best chance of any of their non-top-100 guys to make a big move onto the list next year, a potential impact bat from the left side who has the quickness and arm to catch but needs a lot of work on receiving and especially blocking balls. Two smaller sleepers from this past draft: infielderAndrew Velazquez and right-hander Ben Eckels, their 7th- and 11th-round picks, respectively, who both looked very strong in rookie ball and might jump into the team's top 10 next winter.
Diamondbacks' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Tyler Skaggs, LHP (12)
2. Archie Bradley, RHP (29)
3. Matt Davidson, 3B (75)
4. Adam Eaton, CF (91)
5. Stryker Trahan, C
6. David Holmberg, LHP
7. Chris Owings, SS
8. Didi Gregorius, SS
9. Andrew Chafin, LHP
10. Anthony Meo, RHP
Colorado Rockies
Org rank: 23
Farm system overview
It was a rough year on the farm for the Rockies, withChad Bettis and Tim Wheeler missing all or most of the year due to injuries while Tyler Anderson's year started late due to a groin problem. Nolan Arenado took a huge step back with a poor performance (although he was young for his league) and plenty of reports from scouts that he was playing with little energy. There were some positives, though, such as the huge pro debut from first-round pick David Dahl, a strong -- if abbreviated -- year from former first-rounder Kyle Parker and signs of life from 2009 first-rounder Tyler Matzek, whose stuff was mostly back and who started throwing strikes again at the end of the year.
2013 impact
A healthy Wheeler could be a fourth outfielder for the Rockies this year, and right-handerEdwar Cabrera could bring his plus-plus changeup back to the majors if he can keep the fastball down in the zone more often.
Sleeper
I like both Tylers (Anderson and Matzek) to have strong 2013 seasons, but for a more under-the-radar candidate, Ryan Warner was a high school quarterback and two-way prospect who can really run, projects to have at least a 55-grade fastball and gets good rotation on his breaking ball, with a strong pitcher's build at 6-foot-7.
Rockies' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. David Dahl, OF (37)
2. Trevor Story, SS (85)
3. Nolan Arenado, 3B
4. Eddie Butler, RHP
5. Kyle Parker, 1B
6. Edwar Cabrera, RHP
7. Chad Bettis, RHP
8. Tyler Anderson, LHP
9. Tim Wheeler, CF
10. Tyler Matzek, LHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Org rank: 18
Farm system overview
The Dodgers put just two guys in the top 100, but had I gone another 40 to 50 names, you would have seen more blue on the list, led by Cuban bonus baby Yasiel Puig, who got only a little playing time this summer before a staph infection that required surgery and knocked him out of the Arizona Fall League. He's very strong and a physically well-developed 21-year-old, running well for his size but not enough to be a center fielder. Last year's top 10 included nine pitchers and one position player, but the additions of Puig and first-rounder Corey Seager restored a little more balance, although the strength of the system is still arms, many raw but with long-term upside.
2013 impact
Unless the Dodgers push Puig to fill an outfield hole they don't currently have, we're probably looking at just relievers for 2013 impact here -- lefties Paco Rodriguez and Chris Reed (still scheduled to work as a starter this year), maybe right-hander Chris Withrow if he ever throws enough strikes.
Sleeper
I caught right-hander Zach Bird in the Arizona Rookie League this summer, and the ninth-rounder out of a Mississippi high school looked like a steal for that round, the type of athletic pitcher with arm strength who would have gone in the top three rounds had he played in California or Florida. He has an average fastball/slider combination already along with a slow curveball in the low 70s. He didn't turn 18 until after he was drafted and has a very projectable 6-foot-3 frame, with room for another 20 to 25 pounds, and the chance for two above-average or better pitches in time.
Dodgers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Corey Seager, SS/3B (46)
2. Zach Lee, RHP (67)
3. Yasiel Puig, OF
4. Matt Magill, RHP
5. Joc Pederson, OF
6. Onelki Garcia, LHP
7. Chris Reed, LHP
8. Ross Stripling, RHP
9. Chris Withrow, RHP
10. Zach Bird, RHP
San Diego Padres
Org rank: 6
Farm system overview
The top-ranked organization from last year graduatedYasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso to the majors while top prospects Joe Ross and Casey Kelly missed large chunks of the year due to injuries, although neither ended up with surgery. The Padres supplemented the system with a strong draft of top high school arms, led by lefty Max Fried, while top catching prospect Austin Hedges had a strong full-season debut, continuing to impress with his bat even though his calling card has always been his defense.
2013 impact
Kelly should be in the major league rotation this year, although fastball command woes bedeviled him in his major league time in September. Jedd Gyorko is ready for a big league job at third base but is blocked at the moment by Chase Headley, and I don't think Gyorko's glove is ready for a move to second (assuming his feet will ever be ready for it). Robbie Erlin could surface as a back-end starter; he is an undersized lefty with command and control but is extremely fly ball-prone with a fringe-average fastball.
Sleeper
The Padres took two high-upside prep right-handers from Florida in the 2012 draft who slid in the draft after poor springs. Zach Eflin was up to 95 mph with a plus changeup but missed several weeks with bicep tendinitis before the draft, then missed the end of the summer after contracting mono. Walker Weickel struggled with velocity and command after getting his arm slot too high and losing angle on his curveball, but he's healthy and still very loose and projectable.
Padres' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Austin Hedges, C (36)
2. Max Fried, LHP (51)
3. Rymer Liriano, RF (54)
4. Casey Kelly, RHP (60)
5. Jedd Gyorko, 3B (70)
6. Joe Ross, RHP (88)
7. Robbie Erlin, LHP
8. Walker Weickel, RHP
9. Zach Eflin, RHP
10. Matt Wisler, RHP
San Francisco Giants
Org rank: 26
Farm system overview
Several good starting pitching prospects highlight a system that's very light on bats right now and, after closer Heath Hembree, doesn't have much that's likely to help the major league team in 2013. I could see some of the Giants' second-tier arms becoming useful trade chips for them to add a piece in July, though, so they're not without assets, just without many potential stars.
2013 impact
Hembree is ready for the majors and could be Sergio Romo's long-term replacement, but beyond him, there's no one likely to contribute this year except in backup roles.
Sleeper
First-rounder Chris Stratton, a four-pitch guy who racked up huge strikeout totals in the SEC with a plus slider, and third-rounder Matt Williamson, a rare beast as a right-handed hitter with power who can run and throw enough to play a good right field, are both candidates to move into the top 100 next year. The Giants also moved right-handerAdalberto Mejia from the Dominican Summer League in 2011 straight to the full-season Sally League in 2012, where his three-pitch mix, including an average fastball and above-average curveball, produced solid results.
Giants' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Kyle Crick, RHP (76)
2. C. Blackburn, RHP (80)
3. Chris Stratton, RHP
4. Gary Brown, CF
5. Heath Hembree, RHP
6. Matt Williamson, OF
7. Joe Panik, SS
8. Mike Kickham, LHP
9. Martin Agosta, RHP
10. Andrew Susac, C
Chicago Cubs
Org rank: 5
Farm system overview
They've turned around substantially after trading Paul Maholm, spending lavishly on international free agents (when permitted) and drafting well in 2012, although most of what I like about this system is a good two years away, and they might need a fumigator to rid the organization of its Streptohackus plague. They're another good trade deadline and draft class away from the point where you can begin to see a turnaround in the majors. I should mention Dan Vogelbach here, since I'm so often asked about him: He has 80-grade raw power and he has a pretty good idea at the plate, but he's a brutal athlete with no position. So unless the Cubs follow the Astros to the American League, I don't see how or where they use him, assuming that pitchers don't take advantage of his lack of flexibility and limited coverage on the outer half.
2013 impact
Not much is likely to help the major league club this year. Arodys Vizcaino could surface after his rehab from Tommy John surgery, although I'm assuming his innings will be limited. Fringy guys such as Junior Lake might appear but are unlikely to be better than replacement level.
Sleeper
Aside from Jeimer Candelario, whom I discussed yesterday on the list of guys who just missed, I could see any of these guys jumping into the top 100: Juan Carlos Paniagua, who sits in the mid-90s with a plus slider but has very little pro experience after two years of suspensions; Duane Underwood, drafted at 17 and flashing velocity up to 96 with a very athletic body and quick arm; or Arismendy Alcantara, a plus runner and thrower who might end up at third but shows pop from both sides of the plate.
Cubs' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Javier Baez, SS (31)
2. Albert Almora, CF (33)
3. Jorge Soler, RF (42)
4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (64)
5. Jeimer Candelario, 3B
6. Duane Underwood, RHP
7. Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP
8. Pierce Johnson, RHP
9. Paul Blackburn, RHP
10. Arismendy Alcantara, SS
Cincinnati Reds
Org rank: 12
Farm system overview
Billy Hamilton's conversion to center field after he broke the minor league single-season stolen-base record was their big story of 2012, putting him on track to potentially reach the majors this year, especially since the team has no real center fielder on the roster. They also had a strong draft in 2012, with several guys putting up impressive performances in short-season ball, and have three pitchers on the top 100, including Tony Cingrani, who reached the majors in September and might peak as a mid-rotation starter.
2013 impact
Cingrani is ready and Hamilton isn't far off, needing work on his reads in center, which will come with repetitions.
Sleeper
Ismael Guillon was my sleeper for the Reds going into 2011, but he finally turned the corner (or at least the first corner) this past year, sitting 92-95 much of the summer with better feel for the curve and change. St. John's guard/forward Amir Garrett looked strong with the Reds' Arizona League team, up to 94 with good rotation on his curveball, although he probably profiles best as a reliever because his delivery is so arm-heavy.
Reds' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Billy Hamilton, CF (30)
2. R. Stephenson, RHP (48)
3. Daniel Corcino, RHP (72)
4. Tony Cingrani, LHP (98)
5. Jesse Winker, RF
6. Nick Travieso, RHP
7. Jonathan Reynoso, CF
8. Ismael Guillon, LHP
9. Tanner Rahier, 3B
10. Daniel Langfield, RHP
Milwaukee Brewers
Org rank: 29
Farm system overview
It's a system without a ton of upside that's also light on guys who might be above-average regulars at any position on the diamond, the result of some mediocre draft classes and the trades they made to stay in contention over the past few years, including the Zack Greinke deal. Their 2012 draft was one of my least favorites because they stuck to MLB's bonus recommendations with most picks instead of moving their money around to roll the dice on a higher-priced player who brought more upside.
2013 impact
Wily Peralta should be on the big league club most or all of the year, as should Mark Rogers (until his shoulder falls off) and perhaps Tyler Thornburg (as a reliever only, please).
Sleeper
Their second-round pick from Torrance, Calif., outfielder Tyrone Taylor was also a football standout as a free safety and running back in high school, but made substantial adjustments to his swing during his senior season and was the Brewers' best prospect in short-season ball last year. He can run and throw enough to be an above-average defender in an outfield corner with the potential to hit for average and doubles power.
Brewers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Wily Peralta, RHP (73)
2. John Hellweg, RHP
3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP
4. Taylor Jungmann, rhp
5. Tyler Thornburg, RHP
6. Tyrone Taylor, OF
7. Clint Coulter, C
8. Mitch Haniger, OF
9. Orlando Arcia, SS
10. Hunter Morris, 1B
Pittsburgh Pirates
Org rank: 7
Farm system overview
The Pirates' system has improved through high draft picks and some tremendous work in Latin America, although those of you who've seen "Pelotero" might find that last part a little hard to swallow. They've got two premium, high-end arms on the way, and their low-Class A West Virginia club was one of the strongest rosters in the minors for prospects last year, even after outfielder Josh Bell hurt his knee and had to have surgery that ended his season. They would have probably sneaked into the top 10 had they not drafted Mark Appel without signing him, as the second guy on their board, David Dahl, had one of the best pro debuts of any kid in the class for Colorado.
2013 impact
Gerrit Cole probably makes his major league debut this year, although I expect the Pirates to send him to Triple-A with some specific developmental goals he'll have to meet before he's promoted.
Sleeper
Nick Kingham was inconsistent all year long but finished the year at 90-95 with two solid-average secondary pitches in the curveball and changeup. He has the size and feel to be a potential No. 3 starter.
Pirates' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Gerrit Cole, RHP (8)
2. Jameson Taillon, RHP (20)
3. Alen Hanson, SS (34)
4. Gregory Polanco, CF (55)
5. Luis Heredia, RHP (84)
6. Josh Bell, RF
7. Barrett Barnes, OF
8. Nick Kingham, rhp
9. Wyatt Mathisen, C
10. Clayton Holmes, RHP
St. Louis Cardinals
Org rank: 1
Farm system overview
The Cardinals have the top farm system in baseball heading into 2013, featuring impact prospects up top, plenty of depth in position players and pitching and enough help close to the majors to push them ahead of the Twins, who have as much depth but most of it further away. That's even without giving them much of a boost for their 2012 draft, which was a little college-/probability-heavy for me, and it's a credit to their development staff, which has taken several guys who looked like future organization players and molded them into major league assets.
2013 impact
Shelby Miller is ready for a rotation or bullpen spot right now, while Trevor Rosenthal is at least ready to help in the 'pen. Oscar Taveras, the top pure hitting prospect in the minors, is ready or nearly so but doesn't have a clear opportunity in the majors with Carlos Beltranand Matt Holliday holding on to corner outfield jobs. Kolten Wong could be the team's second baseman by May, if not sooner, given how weak his competition is.
Sleeper
I thought the Cardinals did well to grab Stephen Piscotty, a Stanford product whose raw power was hurt by Stanford's emphasis on hitting to the opposite-field -- so severe that the coaching staff would reportedly bench players who pulled the ball in batting practice. My favorite pick from them this year was the athletic two-way prospect Carson Kelly, who struggled to hit for average when the Cards started him out in the Appalachian League but did show above-average power and was able to make plenty of contact.
Cardinals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Oscar Taveras, OF (2)
2. Shelby Miller, RHP (21)
3. Carlos Martinez, RHP (39)
4. Trevor Rosenthal, RHP (57)
5. Kolten Wong, 2b (96)
6. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP
7. Michael Wacha, RHP
8. Matt Adams, 1B
9. Carson Kelly, 3B
10. Anthony Garcia, OF
Atlanta Braves
Org rank: 20
Farm system overview
Atlanta didn't dip much into its farm system to acquire Justin Upton, but its system wasn't strong to begin with thanks to a very weak track record in the draft over the past several years. The Braves' 2009 draft produced Mike Minor but is unlikely to produce anything else. Their 2010 draft gave them Andrelton Simmons, but again, there's little of note left from that crop. Their 2011 draft might fare a little better, with J.R. Graham on my top 100 and Sean Gilmartin probably a fifth starter in the majors, although that's what you'd like your down years in the draft to look like, not your best years. They have traded well and been aggressive with some smaller moves that have helped bolster the system, but the main way you acquire young talent is through the draft, and Atlanta's track record there is weak.
2013 impact
Starter Julio Teheran has been on the radar for years and is likely to spend most of 2013 with the big club, even though his fastball command and breaking ball aren't yet where they need to be. Evan Gattis, 26, might get a break from beating up younger competition in the minors and earn some at-bats as a backup catcher/left fielder.
Sleeper
Just 18 years old in rookie-level Danville last year, Mauricio Cabrera worked at 92-99 as a starter, with an above-average changeup and a developing (but still fringy) hard curveball. He's the younger brother of Alberto Cabrera with the Cubs and should be in Rome's rotation in low Class A to start 2013.
Braves' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Julio Teheran, RHP (28)
2. J.R. Graham, RHP (94)
3. Lucas Sims, RHP
4. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP
5. Christian Bethancourt, C
6. Alex Wood, LHP
7. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
8. Luis Merejo, LHP
9. Jose Peraza, SS
10. Evan Gattis, LF/C
Miami Marlins
Org rank: 16
Farm system overview
In between laughing all the way to the bank, the Marlins' ownership hasn't paid much attention to the farm system over the past few years, spending little on the international market and lowballing its 2012 first-round pick, Oklahoma State lefty Andrew Heaney. The result is a system that's fairly top heavy and was a bottom-10 organization before the big trade with Toronto that netted two of its fop four prospects.
2013 impact
We're probably a full year away from any of the Marlins' top guys seeing the majors, so any impact this year would be lower-tier guys like Adeiny Hechavarria, a very good defensive shortstop with a long swing and poor plate discipline, and Derek Dietrich, a future second or third baseman with some pop but not much on-base ability.
Sleeper
A ninth-rounder out of a North Carolina high school in 2010, Austin Brice turned down soccer scholarships to play pro ball, working in the low 90s with good life and a curveball that misses bats. He's a good athlete who walked a man every other inning last year and needs to not do that. Also keep an eye on Jose Urena, who also worked in the low Class A Greensboro rotation. He has a plus fastball and commands it but needs to develop some average off-speed offerings.
Marlins' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Christian Yelich, CF (6)
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP (16)
3. Justin Nicolino, LHP (62)
4. Jake Marisnick, OF (82)
5. Andrew Heaney, LHP
6. Adam Conley, LHP
7. Marcell Ozuna, OF
8. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS
9. J.T. Realmuto, C
10. Derek Dietrich, IF
New York Mets
Org rank: 14
Farm system overview
It's a top-heavy system that was boosted substantially by the R.A. Dickey trade. It brought a return that accounts for two of the Mets' top three prospects while they wait for the 2011 and 2012 drafts to start to have more of an impact on the system.
2013 impact
Both of their top prospects, Travis d'Arnaud (acquired from Toronto) and Zack Wheeler (acquired from San Francisco), should spend at least half the year in the majors, d'Arnaud depending on his health and Wheeler on room in the Mets' rotation. Wheeler might be their Matt Harvey, coming up midyear and getting by first on raw stuff as he makes adjustments, while d'Arnaud will have to show he can work the count enough to get to that power.
Sleeper
Domingo Tapia, last year's sleeper, had a strong year in full-season ball, although I think he's been passed by Rafael Montero, who has better command and better secondary stuff than Tapia, who throws harder with more sink but is less of a complete pitcher. Jacob deGrom came back from Tommy John surgery in the middle of the season and was 92-96 with plus life, a good slider, feel for a change and good control. He has yet to throw a full season anywhere, though, as he didn't convert to pitching regularly until the spring of 2010.
Mets' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Zack Wheeler, RHP (13)
2. Travis d'Arnaud, C (14)
3. N. Syndergaard, RHP (97)
4. Brandon Nimmo, OF
5. Gavin Cecchini, SS
6. Wilmer Flores, 3B
7. Rafael Montero, RHP
8. Domingo Tapia, RHP
9. Jacob deGrom, RHP
10. Hansel Robles, RHP
Philadelphia Phillies
Org rank: 27
Farm system overview
Years of trades, surrendered draft picks and refusal to go give signing bonuses that exceed MLB's recommendations have taken their toll on a system that doesn't look like it'll spit out an average every-day position player until at least 2015 barring a big step forward from someone like Cody Asche. There are arms and there are a lot of potentially high-upside position players in the lowest levels, but they've hit a dry spell at the worst possible time for the major league club.
2013 impact
Asche could end up earning some big league time at third base if Michael Young gets hurt or the team realizes he's not very good. Darin Ruf could do a little damage as a bench/platoon guy against left-handed bats, although I don't think he's a regular. Of their top prospects, Adam Morgan is the one who might help the big club in 2013. He may be in the rotation by July if there's an injury. If you really want to speculate, Kenny Giles finished 2012 in high Class A, but he's legitimately throwing 99-100 with at least an average slider, and his delivery is under control enough now that he's throwing strikes. He's the kind of reliever who could tear through three levels and end up in the majors soon.
Sleeper
Shortstop Roman Quinn is an 80-grade runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) who looked great at short even though he was a center fielder in high school, a rare outfield-to-infield conversion that looks like it will result in more than just a fringy defender. He has a sound approach and will drive the ball the other way, although it's going to be more doubles/triples power than homers. Third baseman Maikel Franco showed huge improvement in the second half, with a much better two-strike approach and better overall commitment to his game, hitting .346/.395/.530 after an awful first half. I like a number of guys here as candidates for big jumps in 2013, even right-hander Shane Watson, a 2012 supplemental first-rounder who just missed the team's top 10 and who could push the system into the top 20 overall.
Phillies' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Adam Morgan, LHP (92)
2. Jesse Biddle, LHP (95)
3. Roman Quinn, SS
4. Maikel Franco, 3B
5. Tommy Joseph, C
6. Ethan Martin, RHP
7. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
8. Cody Asche, 3B
9. Kenny Giles, RHP
10. Larry Greene, 1B
Washington Nationals
Org rank: 21
Farm system overview
I love the Nationals' top five, but after that, there's something of a cliff, although it's at least the result of two productive strategies: the trades for Gio Gonzalez and Denard Span, both of which made the major league club better, and the decision to bet their whole 2012 draft (pretty much) on Lucas Giolito, a No. 1 overall candidate who fell to No. 16 due to well-founded injury concerns. The biggest wild card is lefty Matt Purke, who hasn't been healthy since 2010 and whose arm action was always a big red flag, but if the minor shoulder surgery he had cleaned him up enough, he could end up regaining his old prospect luster. (You might have sensed that I'm not holding my breath.)
2013 impact
Anthony Rendon's bat isn't too far away, although both he and Carlos Rivero are blocked at third base as long as Ryan Zimmerman is healthy. The Nats may eventually move Zimmerman to first, but I don't think that happens this year. Christian Garcia may be very effective as a middle reliever if he can stay healthy, which he hasn't been able to do.
Sleeper
Last year's sleeper, Michael Taylor, went backwards, down a hill and into a canyon in 2012, but the tools that made him my sleeper choice for the Nats going into 2012 are all still present. Sammy Solis missed the year after Tommy John surgery, and while it's not the cleanest arm action ever, he was touching 96 mph before he blew out and can turn over a changeup, making him a potential top-100 candidate for next year if he comes back all the way.
Nationals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Anthony Rendon, 3B (17)
2. Brian Goodwin, CF (44)
3. Lucas Giolito, RHP (77)
4. A.J. Cole, RHP (89)
5. Nathan Karns, RHP (99)
6. Matt Skole, 1B
7. Christian Garcia, RHP
8. Carlos Rivero, 3B
9. Matt Purke, LHP
10. Michael Taylor, CF
Org rank: 15
Farm system overview
Dealing Trevor Bauer for 50 cents on the dollar didn't help, nor did failing to get any of Atlanta's top six prospects in the Justin Upton trade, but the Diamondbacks are still very deep in arms and now oddly deep in shortstops who can field but don't get on base. Two solid draft classes have helped, as well as strong work on the development side in taking guys such asMatt Davidson, Adam Eaton and David Holmberg, and helping them exceed the limits of their raw tools.
2013 impact
Eaton and Tyler Skaggs are big league ready, Davidson is close but is now blocked, and they have two starter prospects in Andrew Chafin and Anthony Meo who might be better off in relief roles, where they'd also be close to contributing in the majors.
Sleeper
Stryker Trahan, their 2012 first-rounder, isn't under the radar but has the best chance of any of their non-top-100 guys to make a big move onto the list next year, a potential impact bat from the left side who has the quickness and arm to catch but needs a lot of work on receiving and especially blocking balls. Two smaller sleepers from this past draft: infielderAndrew Velazquez and right-hander Ben Eckels, their 7th- and 11th-round picks, respectively, who both looked very strong in rookie ball and might jump into the team's top 10 next winter.
Diamondbacks' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Tyler Skaggs, LHP (12)
2. Archie Bradley, RHP (29)
3. Matt Davidson, 3B (75)
4. Adam Eaton, CF (91)
5. Stryker Trahan, C
6. David Holmberg, LHP
7. Chris Owings, SS
8. Didi Gregorius, SS
9. Andrew Chafin, LHP
10. Anthony Meo, RHP
Colorado Rockies
Org rank: 23
Farm system overview
It was a rough year on the farm for the Rockies, withChad Bettis and Tim Wheeler missing all or most of the year due to injuries while Tyler Anderson's year started late due to a groin problem. Nolan Arenado took a huge step back with a poor performance (although he was young for his league) and plenty of reports from scouts that he was playing with little energy. There were some positives, though, such as the huge pro debut from first-round pick David Dahl, a strong -- if abbreviated -- year from former first-rounder Kyle Parker and signs of life from 2009 first-rounder Tyler Matzek, whose stuff was mostly back and who started throwing strikes again at the end of the year.
2013 impact
A healthy Wheeler could be a fourth outfielder for the Rockies this year, and right-handerEdwar Cabrera could bring his plus-plus changeup back to the majors if he can keep the fastball down in the zone more often.
Sleeper
I like both Tylers (Anderson and Matzek) to have strong 2013 seasons, but for a more under-the-radar candidate, Ryan Warner was a high school quarterback and two-way prospect who can really run, projects to have at least a 55-grade fastball and gets good rotation on his breaking ball, with a strong pitcher's build at 6-foot-7.
Rockies' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. David Dahl, OF (37)
2. Trevor Story, SS (85)
3. Nolan Arenado, 3B
4. Eddie Butler, RHP
5. Kyle Parker, 1B
6. Edwar Cabrera, RHP
7. Chad Bettis, RHP
8. Tyler Anderson, LHP
9. Tim Wheeler, CF
10. Tyler Matzek, LHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Org rank: 18
Farm system overview
The Dodgers put just two guys in the top 100, but had I gone another 40 to 50 names, you would have seen more blue on the list, led by Cuban bonus baby Yasiel Puig, who got only a little playing time this summer before a staph infection that required surgery and knocked him out of the Arizona Fall League. He's very strong and a physically well-developed 21-year-old, running well for his size but not enough to be a center fielder. Last year's top 10 included nine pitchers and one position player, but the additions of Puig and first-rounder Corey Seager restored a little more balance, although the strength of the system is still arms, many raw but with long-term upside.
2013 impact
Unless the Dodgers push Puig to fill an outfield hole they don't currently have, we're probably looking at just relievers for 2013 impact here -- lefties Paco Rodriguez and Chris Reed (still scheduled to work as a starter this year), maybe right-hander Chris Withrow if he ever throws enough strikes.
Sleeper
I caught right-hander Zach Bird in the Arizona Rookie League this summer, and the ninth-rounder out of a Mississippi high school looked like a steal for that round, the type of athletic pitcher with arm strength who would have gone in the top three rounds had he played in California or Florida. He has an average fastball/slider combination already along with a slow curveball in the low 70s. He didn't turn 18 until after he was drafted and has a very projectable 6-foot-3 frame, with room for another 20 to 25 pounds, and the chance for two above-average or better pitches in time.
Dodgers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Corey Seager, SS/3B (46)
2. Zach Lee, RHP (67)
3. Yasiel Puig, OF
4. Matt Magill, RHP
5. Joc Pederson, OF
6. Onelki Garcia, LHP
7. Chris Reed, LHP
8. Ross Stripling, RHP
9. Chris Withrow, RHP
10. Zach Bird, RHP
San Diego Padres
Org rank: 6
Farm system overview
The top-ranked organization from last year graduatedYasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso to the majors while top prospects Joe Ross and Casey Kelly missed large chunks of the year due to injuries, although neither ended up with surgery. The Padres supplemented the system with a strong draft of top high school arms, led by lefty Max Fried, while top catching prospect Austin Hedges had a strong full-season debut, continuing to impress with his bat even though his calling card has always been his defense.
2013 impact
Kelly should be in the major league rotation this year, although fastball command woes bedeviled him in his major league time in September. Jedd Gyorko is ready for a big league job at third base but is blocked at the moment by Chase Headley, and I don't think Gyorko's glove is ready for a move to second (assuming his feet will ever be ready for it). Robbie Erlin could surface as a back-end starter; he is an undersized lefty with command and control but is extremely fly ball-prone with a fringe-average fastball.
Sleeper
The Padres took two high-upside prep right-handers from Florida in the 2012 draft who slid in the draft after poor springs. Zach Eflin was up to 95 mph with a plus changeup but missed several weeks with bicep tendinitis before the draft, then missed the end of the summer after contracting mono. Walker Weickel struggled with velocity and command after getting his arm slot too high and losing angle on his curveball, but he's healthy and still very loose and projectable.
Padres' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Austin Hedges, C (36)
2. Max Fried, LHP (51)
3. Rymer Liriano, RF (54)
4. Casey Kelly, RHP (60)
5. Jedd Gyorko, 3B (70)
6. Joe Ross, RHP (88)
7. Robbie Erlin, LHP
8. Walker Weickel, RHP
9. Zach Eflin, RHP
10. Matt Wisler, RHP
San Francisco Giants
Org rank: 26
Farm system overview
Several good starting pitching prospects highlight a system that's very light on bats right now and, after closer Heath Hembree, doesn't have much that's likely to help the major league team in 2013. I could see some of the Giants' second-tier arms becoming useful trade chips for them to add a piece in July, though, so they're not without assets, just without many potential stars.
2013 impact
Hembree is ready for the majors and could be Sergio Romo's long-term replacement, but beyond him, there's no one likely to contribute this year except in backup roles.
Sleeper
First-rounder Chris Stratton, a four-pitch guy who racked up huge strikeout totals in the SEC with a plus slider, and third-rounder Matt Williamson, a rare beast as a right-handed hitter with power who can run and throw enough to play a good right field, are both candidates to move into the top 100 next year. The Giants also moved right-handerAdalberto Mejia from the Dominican Summer League in 2011 straight to the full-season Sally League in 2012, where his three-pitch mix, including an average fastball and above-average curveball, produced solid results.
Giants' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Kyle Crick, RHP (76)
2. C. Blackburn, RHP (80)
3. Chris Stratton, RHP
4. Gary Brown, CF
5. Heath Hembree, RHP
6. Matt Williamson, OF
7. Joe Panik, SS
8. Mike Kickham, LHP
9. Martin Agosta, RHP
10. Andrew Susac, C
Chicago Cubs
Org rank: 5
Farm system overview
They've turned around substantially after trading Paul Maholm, spending lavishly on international free agents (when permitted) and drafting well in 2012, although most of what I like about this system is a good two years away, and they might need a fumigator to rid the organization of its Streptohackus plague. They're another good trade deadline and draft class away from the point where you can begin to see a turnaround in the majors. I should mention Dan Vogelbach here, since I'm so often asked about him: He has 80-grade raw power and he has a pretty good idea at the plate, but he's a brutal athlete with no position. So unless the Cubs follow the Astros to the American League, I don't see how or where they use him, assuming that pitchers don't take advantage of his lack of flexibility and limited coverage on the outer half.
2013 impact
Not much is likely to help the major league club this year. Arodys Vizcaino could surface after his rehab from Tommy John surgery, although I'm assuming his innings will be limited. Fringy guys such as Junior Lake might appear but are unlikely to be better than replacement level.
Sleeper
Aside from Jeimer Candelario, whom I discussed yesterday on the list of guys who just missed, I could see any of these guys jumping into the top 100: Juan Carlos Paniagua, who sits in the mid-90s with a plus slider but has very little pro experience after two years of suspensions; Duane Underwood, drafted at 17 and flashing velocity up to 96 with a very athletic body and quick arm; or Arismendy Alcantara, a plus runner and thrower who might end up at third but shows pop from both sides of the plate.
Cubs' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Javier Baez, SS (31)
2. Albert Almora, CF (33)
3. Jorge Soler, RF (42)
4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (64)
5. Jeimer Candelario, 3B
6. Duane Underwood, RHP
7. Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP
8. Pierce Johnson, RHP
9. Paul Blackburn, RHP
10. Arismendy Alcantara, SS
Cincinnati Reds
Org rank: 12
Farm system overview
Billy Hamilton's conversion to center field after he broke the minor league single-season stolen-base record was their big story of 2012, putting him on track to potentially reach the majors this year, especially since the team has no real center fielder on the roster. They also had a strong draft in 2012, with several guys putting up impressive performances in short-season ball, and have three pitchers on the top 100, including Tony Cingrani, who reached the majors in September and might peak as a mid-rotation starter.
2013 impact
Cingrani is ready and Hamilton isn't far off, needing work on his reads in center, which will come with repetitions.
Sleeper
Ismael Guillon was my sleeper for the Reds going into 2011, but he finally turned the corner (or at least the first corner) this past year, sitting 92-95 much of the summer with better feel for the curve and change. St. John's guard/forward Amir Garrett looked strong with the Reds' Arizona League team, up to 94 with good rotation on his curveball, although he probably profiles best as a reliever because his delivery is so arm-heavy.
Reds' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Billy Hamilton, CF (30)
2. R. Stephenson, RHP (48)
3. Daniel Corcino, RHP (72)
4. Tony Cingrani, LHP (98)
5. Jesse Winker, RF
6. Nick Travieso, RHP
7. Jonathan Reynoso, CF
8. Ismael Guillon, LHP
9. Tanner Rahier, 3B
10. Daniel Langfield, RHP
Milwaukee Brewers
Org rank: 29
Farm system overview
It's a system without a ton of upside that's also light on guys who might be above-average regulars at any position on the diamond, the result of some mediocre draft classes and the trades they made to stay in contention over the past few years, including the Zack Greinke deal. Their 2012 draft was one of my least favorites because they stuck to MLB's bonus recommendations with most picks instead of moving their money around to roll the dice on a higher-priced player who brought more upside.
2013 impact
Wily Peralta should be on the big league club most or all of the year, as should Mark Rogers (until his shoulder falls off) and perhaps Tyler Thornburg (as a reliever only, please).
Sleeper
Their second-round pick from Torrance, Calif., outfielder Tyrone Taylor was also a football standout as a free safety and running back in high school, but made substantial adjustments to his swing during his senior season and was the Brewers' best prospect in short-season ball last year. He can run and throw enough to be an above-average defender in an outfield corner with the potential to hit for average and doubles power.
Brewers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Wily Peralta, RHP (73)
2. John Hellweg, RHP
3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP
4. Taylor Jungmann, rhp
5. Tyler Thornburg, RHP
6. Tyrone Taylor, OF
7. Clint Coulter, C
8. Mitch Haniger, OF
9. Orlando Arcia, SS
10. Hunter Morris, 1B
Pittsburgh Pirates
Org rank: 7
Farm system overview
The Pirates' system has improved through high draft picks and some tremendous work in Latin America, although those of you who've seen "Pelotero" might find that last part a little hard to swallow. They've got two premium, high-end arms on the way, and their low-Class A West Virginia club was one of the strongest rosters in the minors for prospects last year, even after outfielder Josh Bell hurt his knee and had to have surgery that ended his season. They would have probably sneaked into the top 10 had they not drafted Mark Appel without signing him, as the second guy on their board, David Dahl, had one of the best pro debuts of any kid in the class for Colorado.
2013 impact
Gerrit Cole probably makes his major league debut this year, although I expect the Pirates to send him to Triple-A with some specific developmental goals he'll have to meet before he's promoted.
Sleeper
Nick Kingham was inconsistent all year long but finished the year at 90-95 with two solid-average secondary pitches in the curveball and changeup. He has the size and feel to be a potential No. 3 starter.
Pirates' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Gerrit Cole, RHP (8)
2. Jameson Taillon, RHP (20)
3. Alen Hanson, SS (34)
4. Gregory Polanco, CF (55)
5. Luis Heredia, RHP (84)
6. Josh Bell, RF
7. Barrett Barnes, OF
8. Nick Kingham, rhp
9. Wyatt Mathisen, C
10. Clayton Holmes, RHP
St. Louis Cardinals
Org rank: 1
Farm system overview
The Cardinals have the top farm system in baseball heading into 2013, featuring impact prospects up top, plenty of depth in position players and pitching and enough help close to the majors to push them ahead of the Twins, who have as much depth but most of it further away. That's even without giving them much of a boost for their 2012 draft, which was a little college-/probability-heavy for me, and it's a credit to their development staff, which has taken several guys who looked like future organization players and molded them into major league assets.
2013 impact
Shelby Miller is ready for a rotation or bullpen spot right now, while Trevor Rosenthal is at least ready to help in the 'pen. Oscar Taveras, the top pure hitting prospect in the minors, is ready or nearly so but doesn't have a clear opportunity in the majors with Carlos Beltranand Matt Holliday holding on to corner outfield jobs. Kolten Wong could be the team's second baseman by May, if not sooner, given how weak his competition is.
Sleeper
I thought the Cardinals did well to grab Stephen Piscotty, a Stanford product whose raw power was hurt by Stanford's emphasis on hitting to the opposite-field -- so severe that the coaching staff would reportedly bench players who pulled the ball in batting practice. My favorite pick from them this year was the athletic two-way prospect Carson Kelly, who struggled to hit for average when the Cards started him out in the Appalachian League but did show above-average power and was able to make plenty of contact.
Cardinals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Oscar Taveras, OF (2)
2. Shelby Miller, RHP (21)
3. Carlos Martinez, RHP (39)
4. Trevor Rosenthal, RHP (57)
5. Kolten Wong, 2b (96)
6. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP
7. Michael Wacha, RHP
8. Matt Adams, 1B
9. Carson Kelly, 3B
10. Anthony Garcia, OF
Atlanta Braves
Org rank: 20
Farm system overview
Atlanta didn't dip much into its farm system to acquire Justin Upton, but its system wasn't strong to begin with thanks to a very weak track record in the draft over the past several years. The Braves' 2009 draft produced Mike Minor but is unlikely to produce anything else. Their 2010 draft gave them Andrelton Simmons, but again, there's little of note left from that crop. Their 2011 draft might fare a little better, with J.R. Graham on my top 100 and Sean Gilmartin probably a fifth starter in the majors, although that's what you'd like your down years in the draft to look like, not your best years. They have traded well and been aggressive with some smaller moves that have helped bolster the system, but the main way you acquire young talent is through the draft, and Atlanta's track record there is weak.
2013 impact
Starter Julio Teheran has been on the radar for years and is likely to spend most of 2013 with the big club, even though his fastball command and breaking ball aren't yet where they need to be. Evan Gattis, 26, might get a break from beating up younger competition in the minors and earn some at-bats as a backup catcher/left fielder.
Sleeper
Just 18 years old in rookie-level Danville last year, Mauricio Cabrera worked at 92-99 as a starter, with an above-average changeup and a developing (but still fringy) hard curveball. He's the younger brother of Alberto Cabrera with the Cubs and should be in Rome's rotation in low Class A to start 2013.
Braves' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Julio Teheran, RHP (28)
2. J.R. Graham, RHP (94)
3. Lucas Sims, RHP
4. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP
5. Christian Bethancourt, C
6. Alex Wood, LHP
7. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
8. Luis Merejo, LHP
9. Jose Peraza, SS
10. Evan Gattis, LF/C
Miami Marlins
Org rank: 16
Farm system overview
In between laughing all the way to the bank, the Marlins' ownership hasn't paid much attention to the farm system over the past few years, spending little on the international market and lowballing its 2012 first-round pick, Oklahoma State lefty Andrew Heaney. The result is a system that's fairly top heavy and was a bottom-10 organization before the big trade with Toronto that netted two of its fop four prospects.
2013 impact
We're probably a full year away from any of the Marlins' top guys seeing the majors, so any impact this year would be lower-tier guys like Adeiny Hechavarria, a very good defensive shortstop with a long swing and poor plate discipline, and Derek Dietrich, a future second or third baseman with some pop but not much on-base ability.
Sleeper
A ninth-rounder out of a North Carolina high school in 2010, Austin Brice turned down soccer scholarships to play pro ball, working in the low 90s with good life and a curveball that misses bats. He's a good athlete who walked a man every other inning last year and needs to not do that. Also keep an eye on Jose Urena, who also worked in the low Class A Greensboro rotation. He has a plus fastball and commands it but needs to develop some average off-speed offerings.
Marlins' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Christian Yelich, CF (6)
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP (16)
3. Justin Nicolino, LHP (62)
4. Jake Marisnick, OF (82)
5. Andrew Heaney, LHP
6. Adam Conley, LHP
7. Marcell Ozuna, OF
8. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS
9. J.T. Realmuto, C
10. Derek Dietrich, IF
New York Mets
Org rank: 14
Farm system overview
It's a top-heavy system that was boosted substantially by the R.A. Dickey trade. It brought a return that accounts for two of the Mets' top three prospects while they wait for the 2011 and 2012 drafts to start to have more of an impact on the system.
2013 impact
Both of their top prospects, Travis d'Arnaud (acquired from Toronto) and Zack Wheeler (acquired from San Francisco), should spend at least half the year in the majors, d'Arnaud depending on his health and Wheeler on room in the Mets' rotation. Wheeler might be their Matt Harvey, coming up midyear and getting by first on raw stuff as he makes adjustments, while d'Arnaud will have to show he can work the count enough to get to that power.
Sleeper
Domingo Tapia, last year's sleeper, had a strong year in full-season ball, although I think he's been passed by Rafael Montero, who has better command and better secondary stuff than Tapia, who throws harder with more sink but is less of a complete pitcher. Jacob deGrom came back from Tommy John surgery in the middle of the season and was 92-96 with plus life, a good slider, feel for a change and good control. He has yet to throw a full season anywhere, though, as he didn't convert to pitching regularly until the spring of 2010.
Mets' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Zack Wheeler, RHP (13)
2. Travis d'Arnaud, C (14)
3. N. Syndergaard, RHP (97)
4. Brandon Nimmo, OF
5. Gavin Cecchini, SS
6. Wilmer Flores, 3B
7. Rafael Montero, RHP
8. Domingo Tapia, RHP
9. Jacob deGrom, RHP
10. Hansel Robles, RHP
Philadelphia Phillies
Org rank: 27
Farm system overview
Years of trades, surrendered draft picks and refusal to go give signing bonuses that exceed MLB's recommendations have taken their toll on a system that doesn't look like it'll spit out an average every-day position player until at least 2015 barring a big step forward from someone like Cody Asche. There are arms and there are a lot of potentially high-upside position players in the lowest levels, but they've hit a dry spell at the worst possible time for the major league club.
2013 impact
Asche could end up earning some big league time at third base if Michael Young gets hurt or the team realizes he's not very good. Darin Ruf could do a little damage as a bench/platoon guy against left-handed bats, although I don't think he's a regular. Of their top prospects, Adam Morgan is the one who might help the big club in 2013. He may be in the rotation by July if there's an injury. If you really want to speculate, Kenny Giles finished 2012 in high Class A, but he's legitimately throwing 99-100 with at least an average slider, and his delivery is under control enough now that he's throwing strikes. He's the kind of reliever who could tear through three levels and end up in the majors soon.
Sleeper
Shortstop Roman Quinn is an 80-grade runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) who looked great at short even though he was a center fielder in high school, a rare outfield-to-infield conversion that looks like it will result in more than just a fringy defender. He has a sound approach and will drive the ball the other way, although it's going to be more doubles/triples power than homers. Third baseman Maikel Franco showed huge improvement in the second half, with a much better two-strike approach and better overall commitment to his game, hitting .346/.395/.530 after an awful first half. I like a number of guys here as candidates for big jumps in 2013, even right-hander Shane Watson, a 2012 supplemental first-rounder who just missed the team's top 10 and who could push the system into the top 20 overall.
Phillies' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Adam Morgan, LHP (92)
2. Jesse Biddle, LHP (95)
3. Roman Quinn, SS
4. Maikel Franco, 3B
5. Tommy Joseph, C
6. Ethan Martin, RHP
7. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP
8. Cody Asche, 3B
9. Kenny Giles, RHP
10. Larry Greene, 1B
Washington Nationals
Org rank: 21
Farm system overview
I love the Nationals' top five, but after that, there's something of a cliff, although it's at least the result of two productive strategies: the trades for Gio Gonzalez and Denard Span, both of which made the major league club better, and the decision to bet their whole 2012 draft (pretty much) on Lucas Giolito, a No. 1 overall candidate who fell to No. 16 due to well-founded injury concerns. The biggest wild card is lefty Matt Purke, who hasn't been healthy since 2010 and whose arm action was always a big red flag, but if the minor shoulder surgery he had cleaned him up enough, he could end up regaining his old prospect luster. (You might have sensed that I'm not holding my breath.)
2013 impact
Anthony Rendon's bat isn't too far away, although both he and Carlos Rivero are blocked at third base as long as Ryan Zimmerman is healthy. The Nats may eventually move Zimmerman to first, but I don't think that happens this year. Christian Garcia may be very effective as a middle reliever if he can stay healthy, which he hasn't been able to do.
Sleeper
Last year's sleeper, Michael Taylor, went backwards, down a hill and into a canyon in 2012, but the tools that made him my sleeper choice for the Nats going into 2012 are all still present. Sammy Solis missed the year after Tommy John surgery, and while it's not the cleanest arm action ever, he was touching 96 mph before he blew out and can turn over a changeup, making him a potential top-100 candidate for next year if he comes back all the way.
Nationals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Anthony Rendon, 3B (17)
2. Brian Goodwin, CF (44)
3. Lucas Giolito, RHP (77)
4. A.J. Cole, RHP (89)
5. Nathan Karns, RHP (99)
6. Matt Skole, 1B
7. Christian Garcia, RHP
8. Carlos Rivero, 3B
9. Matt Purke, LHP
10. Michael Taylor, CF
