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Topnotchsy
Featured Contributor, The best players in history?
- Aug 7, 2008
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The subject came up in another thread, but I felt like this might be worth its own post.
As anyone who follows baseball knows, David Price won the AL Cy Young Award this weak, capping a 20-5 season when he lead the league with a 2.56 ERA. He's not been an All-Star 3 years in a row and has a Cy Young award, along with a second place finish. And he's 26 years old.
Comparisons to other top young pitchers including King Felix, Kershaw, Lincecum and Verlander quickly highlights the fact that while Price might be in the same league as them as a pitcher, his Bowman Chrome Rookie Autograph does not get close to the same attention. The first Price Chrome Autograph to sell after he won the Cy Young (when you would expect to see spike) went for $24.
The obviously question is why. Here's my thoughts...
The first thing to consider is the timing of the release. Back when Price's Chrome Auto was released, people had not really accepted the idea that a player could have a second Chrome card and therefore that held down prices on release. Price also had an Elite Auto from the year before which also was a factor then. Over time that perception changed, but at that time it certainly held down prices.
One might say though, that since the perception has changed, the price should go with it. The issue though, is that people in general are not quick to change how they feel about the price of something without a good reason. There's all sorts of economic terms to describe these ideas, one is that the original price provides an anchor which is difficult to move off. Simply stated, the fact the prices used to be low, means that it will be difficult for that to change.
So what does that mean for collectors/investors?
In my opinion, for the prices to shift, the perception has to shift, and it will likely take something significant for that to happen (say a crazy start to next season, a second consecutive Cy Young Award, a no-hitter etc.) While Price has been great, he has managed to slide under the radar and the limited attention has meant his cards have stayed where they are. Should something happen to change that though, I believe that the anchor will shift people will start looking at his play, comparing it to others who have had similar success, and using that comparison coming to the conclusion that Price's cards are way underpriced, thereby driving up prices, possibly to where a guy like Kershaw is at.
In summary, (for those who only read the cliff notes) my gut is that it will take a lot to see a major shift in pricing on Price's cards (primarily his BC Auto) but if he can reach the "tipping point" we could see a dramatic increase in prices in a very short time.
As anyone who follows baseball knows, David Price won the AL Cy Young Award this weak, capping a 20-5 season when he lead the league with a 2.56 ERA. He's not been an All-Star 3 years in a row and has a Cy Young award, along with a second place finish. And he's 26 years old.
Comparisons to other top young pitchers including King Felix, Kershaw, Lincecum and Verlander quickly highlights the fact that while Price might be in the same league as them as a pitcher, his Bowman Chrome Rookie Autograph does not get close to the same attention. The first Price Chrome Autograph to sell after he won the Cy Young (when you would expect to see spike) went for $24.
The obviously question is why. Here's my thoughts...
The first thing to consider is the timing of the release. Back when Price's Chrome Auto was released, people had not really accepted the idea that a player could have a second Chrome card and therefore that held down prices on release. Price also had an Elite Auto from the year before which also was a factor then. Over time that perception changed, but at that time it certainly held down prices.
One might say though, that since the perception has changed, the price should go with it. The issue though, is that people in general are not quick to change how they feel about the price of something without a good reason. There's all sorts of economic terms to describe these ideas, one is that the original price provides an anchor which is difficult to move off. Simply stated, the fact the prices used to be low, means that it will be difficult for that to change.
So what does that mean for collectors/investors?
In my opinion, for the prices to shift, the perception has to shift, and it will likely take something significant for that to happen (say a crazy start to next season, a second consecutive Cy Young Award, a no-hitter etc.) While Price has been great, he has managed to slide under the radar and the limited attention has meant his cards have stayed where they are. Should something happen to change that though, I believe that the anchor will shift people will start looking at his play, comparing it to others who have had similar success, and using that comparison coming to the conclusion that Price's cards are way underpriced, thereby driving up prices, possibly to where a guy like Kershaw is at.
In summary, (for those who only read the cliff notes) my gut is that it will take a lot to see a major shift in pricing on Price's cards (primarily his BC Auto) but if he can reach the "tipping point" we could see a dramatic increase in prices in a very short time.
