Interesting theory on David Ortiz's decline

I know at this point many people have already labeled (or suspect) Ortiz as a former steroid user, so maybe I'm being a naive "homer" for thinking there are other reasons.
Either way, it's been tough to watch his decline - and after all he's done for the franchise, I don't think I could ever "BOO" him, but yet most days I wish there was anyone else (well maybe not Lugo) in the DH spot.

Don't know if this has been posted, or if Sox fans have stumbled upon it at espn.com....but I thought it was interesting and provides another posibility for Ortiz's decline and something i had not thought of.......


http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=4223584

The one thing I will say:

The three amigos in Boston ~ Pedro , Ortiz, Manny.

Pedro ~ has he won a game since he left Boston? He has broken down faster then a used Yugo.

Manny ~ Putting up amazing #s....never got off the stuff until he got caught.

Ortiz ~ Manny left and so did his supplier.

Coincidence?

I have more red sox t-shirts then you can count and have been to 6 games so far this year, I know my team...sadly.

Im still sticking to the "hes a huge guy" and big guys usually decline faster. Their arteries start to get clogged and mess up their swings.

Look at everybody that was on those championship teams, all bulked up, had career years, and most were never heard from again.

manny took his needles with him, end of story

jeremy said:

manny took his needles with him, end of story

Click to expand...

jeremys spoken
where have you been man?

EricInCT said:

The one thing I will say:

The three amigos in Boston ~ Pedro , Ortiz, Manny.

Pedro ~ has he won a game since he left Boston? He has broken down faster then a used Yugo.

Manny ~ Putting up amazing #s....never got off the stuff until he got caught.

Ortiz ~ Manny left and so did his supplier.

Coincidence?

I have more red sox t-shirts then you can count and have been to 6 games so far this year, I know my team...sadly.

Click to expand...

That an ethnic slur?

I don't think the PEDs are his problem, I think he's closer to 36-37 years old and falling apart. He's at an age where typically, pre-PEDs, guys retired, especially with his size. Big dude, 3-4 years older than he says he is, just hit a wall. Now, I'm not a member of Red Sox Nation or anything like that and if he had tested positive for the roids at some point I can't say that I wouldn't be surprised. Disappointed perhaps but not shocked. But I don't think it's that.

miguelcabrera said:

jeremy said:

manny took his needles with him, end of story

Click to expand...

jeremys spoken
where have you been man?

Click to expand...

workin

jeremy said:

miguelcabrera said:

jeremy said:

manny took his needles with him, end of story

Click to expand...

jeremys spoken
where have you been man?

Click to expand...

workin

Click to expand...

I didn't think you could hold down a job

trevordchi said:

jeremy said:

miguelcabrera said:

jeremy said:

manny took his needles with him, end of story

Click to expand...

jeremys spoken
where have you been man?

Click to expand...

workin

Click to expand...

I didn't think you could hold down a job

Click to expand...

ouch man

Are you accusing Pedro of roids? I would be shocked!

flightposite said:

Look at everybody that was on those championship teams, all bulked up, had career years, and most were never heard from again.

Click to expand...

Odd.Never thought of that.

that writer was really good. he had me laughing on a few occassions....

i loved how he compared beefy sluggers to **** stars :lol:

also the first two paragraphs were brilliant.

He's just a fat guy who can't play defense who's not taking steroids anymore so now he can't hit either.

That, or it's all in his head. Or he's hiding an injury.

Who knows?

I don't.

But it sure is beautiful to watch.


Wonder if he says 'I know' when he see's that New Era 'You not Big Papi' commercial???

markakis8 said:

that writer was really good. he had me laughing on a few occassions....

i loved how he compared beefy sluggers to **** stars :lol:

also the first two paragraphs were brilliant.

Click to expand...

The B.S. Report is an excellent podcast that he does if you listen to any podcasts.

EricInCT said:

The one thing I will say:

The three amigos in Boston ~ Pedro , Ortiz, Manny.

Pedro ~ has he won a game since he left Boston? He has broken down faster then a used Yugo.

Manny ~ Putting up amazing #s....never got off the stuff until he got caught.

Ortiz ~ Manny left and so did his supplier.

Coincidence?

I have more red sox t-shirts then you can count and have been to 6 games so far this year, I know my team...sadly.

Click to expand...

I know this was probably (I am hoping) said tongue in cheek. Pedro is one of the best pitcher's of our time, and his run from 99-04 was one of the best ever seen. When he pitched, it was an EVENT, it was must-see TV.

Since he left Boston after 04, he has gone 32-23 for the Mets and made two All-Star teams, in 05 and 06. While he has been injured during that time, he did start 79 games in 4 seasons with the Mets, including 31 starts in 05, and tallied a total of 486 2/3 innings.

I may be in the minority here, but I think Pedro still has something left in the tank, and could help a team down the stretch this season, especially a contender looking for another arm (do you hear me, Philly?).

Anybody that watches the Sox saw this coming last year around Sept. into the playoffs.
I don't know who I feel sorry for? Papi or Francona? You know he wants to bench him
but doesn't have the heart to do it. He better start producing soon becuase if he doesn't he is gone
and I will not be shocked if Barry Bonds or Frank Thomas get a try out.
Red Sox needed more then 1 HR from the DH spot by the end of May.

I think claiming steroids in this case is slanderous at best, and bringing up the age issue (although a possibility) shows a certain level of ignorance as well. Any 20-something year old baseball fan has been around long enough to remember guys like Mo Vaughn, Albert Belle, and Cecil Fielder, all of whom saw their power numbers and run production sky rocket in their mid to late 20's, and then crashed and burned by the age of 34. Not 37 or 38 as is suggested in the article. Look at just about any average ball player and it's fairly obvious that things start to break down at 31 or 32 years old. The David Ortiz situation is pretty much the same thing.

A guy like Ortiz with lots of body mass and average plate discipline thrives in his younger years when he can match up with 70% or better of the pitchers in the league, but struggles later on in his early to mid 30's when his natural hormone levels are experiencing a steep decline. By this point in his career, Ortiz's body mass is actually working against him, and the only way he could reverse the process is by taking steroids -- which means his decline in production is evidence that he is not (or did not) use PED's and is not currently doing so.

Conclusion: Ortiz's career stats correlate very well with a man of his size and skill level (as Bill James told the Red Sox so many years ago), and the natural decline he is experiencing along with the Red Sox nation is a sure sign that the Sox need to move on, and the Big Papi will be retiring in the next 12 to 24 months.

EricInCT said:

The one thing I will say:

The three amigos in Boston ~ Pedro , Ortiz, Manny.

Pedro ~ has he won a game since he left Boston? He has broken down faster then a used Yugo.

Manny ~ Putting up amazing #s....never got off the stuff until he got caught.

Ortiz ~ Manny left and so did his supplier.

Coincidence?

I have more red sox t-shirts then you can count and have been to 6 games so far this year, I know my team...sadly.

Click to expand...

Petey won 32 games for ny but only had one more good year.
He did however leathe league in whip and ks/bb that year.