When will Lincecum cards really take off?

matfanofold · Apr 25, 2010

Now, I know some of his cards can be pricey right now, but considering just how dominant this kid is, why has his cards not been given the Pujols treatment yet? I'm talking like base RC cards hitting $50, base auto RC cards hitting $500 - $1000? Anyone who watches baseball can put up little argument that he has been the most consistantly dominant pitcher since he entered MLB. And you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant begining to anyones pitching career ever. And one thing I know is that once a player reaches a level of dominance, certing variables like team, WS rings, ect.. do not matter anymore like they can with mots cases. So, my real question is...

How many more years of CY type dominance does this kid need to throw to start to distance himself from mere greatness towards Pujols type reverence?

Nick1190 · Apr 25, 2010

matfanofold said:
Now, I know some of his cards can be pricey right now, but considering just how dominant this kid is, why has his cards not been given the Pujols treatment yet? I'm talking like base RC cards hitting $50, base auto RC cards hitting $500 - $1000? Anyone who watches baseball can put up little argument that he has been the most consistantly dominant pitcher since he entered MLB. And you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant begining to anyones pitching career ever. And one thing I know is that once a player reaches a level of dominance, certing variables like team, WS rings, ect.. do not matter anymore like they can with mots cases. So, my real question is...

How many more years of CY type dominance does this kid need to throw to start to distance himself from mere greatness towards Pujols type reverence?

if his cards haven't taken off the last few years, what makes you believe they're going to go up in a few years?

darocker80 · Apr 25, 2010

As a collector i am hoping even if he wins more cy young awards his prices won't move

(hopefully becket will continue to keep low bv values, especially on his parallel autos haha)

darocker80 · Apr 25, 2010

Nick1190 said:
matfanofold said:

Now, I know some of his cards can be pricey right now, but considering just how dominant this kid is, why has his cards not been given the Pujols treatment yet? I'm talking like base RC cards hitting $50, base auto RC cards hitting $500 - $1000? Anyone who watches baseball can put up little argument that he has been the most consistantly dominant pitcher since he entered MLB. And you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant begining to anyones pitching career ever. And one thing I know is that once a player reaches a level of dominance, certing variables like team, WS rings, ect.. do not matter anymore like they can with mots cases. So, my real question is...

How many more years of CY type dominance does this kid need to throw to start to distance himself from mere greatness towards Pujols type reverence?

Click to expand...

if his cards haven't taken off the last few years, what makes you believe they're going to go up in a few years?

pujols chrome autos were around 2000 clip a couple years ago (with his mvp, all star appearance, WS ring, etc) now they are way more than that :shock:

AKA Coastal · Apr 25, 2010

I'm not sure if a pitcher can reach "pujols levels". Pitchers tend to fall off a little faster and are a bit more injury prone than a hitter. Not to mention it's taken Pujols 6-8 years of total dominance to reach the levels he at. Lincecum has only been doing it for a few years.

BowmanChromeAddict · Apr 25, 2010

It's happening...or getting closer to happening. I have a 3 count BDP Refractor lot ending tonight and they're already over $20 per card...WHAT?!

bradical · Apr 25, 2010

His cards are far more overproduced than Pujols. There are less than 500 Bowman Chrome Pujols autos. There is probably close to 7x for Lincecum Chrome Autos.

He is one shoulder injury away from being a has been.

Jurgy25 · Apr 25, 2010

Another reason why Pujols' are much more expensive are the rarity. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but only a handful of his BC Autos were actually redeemed. So while Lincecum has about 1000 base chrome auto, 500 Refractor Auto, and so on with all the parallels. Pujols' BC Autos are probably only around 250 redeemed, supply is so low compared to the Lincecum's. Also the fact that the Pujols BC have been known to be trimmed, adds to the low amount of true unaltered BC Auto Cards.

matfanofold · Apr 25, 2010

Nick1190 said:
matfanofold said:

Now, I know some of his cards can be pricey right now, but considering just how dominant this kid is, why has his cards not been given the Pujols treatment yet? I'm talking like base RC cards hitting $50, base auto RC cards hitting $500 - $1000? Anyone who watches baseball can put up little argument that he has been the most consistantly dominant pitcher since he entered MLB. And you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant begining to anyones pitching career ever. And one thing I know is that once a player reaches a level of dominance, certing variables like team, WS rings, ect.. do not matter anymore like they can with mots cases. So, my real question is...

How many more years of CY type dominance does this kid need to throw to start to distance himself from mere greatness towards Pujols type reverence?

Click to expand...

if his cards haven't taken off the last few years, what makes you believe they're going to go up in a few years?

Thats a good question, and one that this thread is directly asking! Why havent they taken off like that yet? Personally I believe they will. Maybe after 10 years in the bigs with stats like..

150/50 (w/l) - ~2500 K's - a 2.80 +/- era and 5 CY awards, maybe then people will start to really shell out?

darocker80 · Apr 25, 2010

Jurgy25 said:
Another reason why Pujols' are much more expensive are the rarity. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but only a handful of his BC Autos were actually redeemed. So while Lincecum has about 1000 base chrome auto, 500 Refractor Auto, and so on with all the parallels. Pujols' BC Autos are probably only around 250 redeemed, supply is so low compared to the Lincecum's. Also the fact that the Pujols BC have been known to be trimmed, adds to the low amount of true unaltered BC Auto Cards.

Ya, the scarcity (including trimmed factor) really puts a high demand and value on Pujols cards.

matfanofold · Apr 25, 2010

AKA Coastal said:
I'm not sure if a pitcher can reach "pujols levels". Pitchers tend to fall off a little faster and are a bit more injury prone than a hitter. Not to mention it's taken Pujols 6-8 years of total dominance to reach the levels he at. Lincecum has only been doing it for a few years.

Well, back in the early to mid 90's, Clemens and Ryan collectors would disagree. Point being, I see no reason that this hobby would not put a pitcher as iconic as a batter. They have many times before.

markakis8 · Apr 25, 2010

I'm sorry, I'm a Lincecum fan just as any other non-darocker person. But he'll never reach Pujols prices....EVER. Simply fact b/c he's a pitcher.

What has he done that Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, or Roy Halladay haven't done over a 3 year stretch?

If he puts up an ungodly year (I'm talking 25-2 sub 2 ERA) like he has been his first 4 games, we may see a HUGE spike. But even going 20-5 with 2.00 ERA and winning his 3rd Cy Young (which he won't win) MIGHT give you a 10% increase in prices only to come back down when he has ONE mediocre year.

Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

matfanofold · Apr 25, 2010

bradical said:
His cards are far more overproduced than Pujols. There are less than 500 Bowman Chrome Pujols autos. There is probably close to 7x for Lincecum Chrome Autos.

He is one shoulder injury away from being a has been.

Upper deck and Topps base RC's have deen $50 + on Pujols. I'm not strictly talking direct comparisons to the hobby iconic Pujols RC.

BunchOBull · Apr 25, 2010

His cards are already to the point that I don't think I can afford to collect him anymore. I'm keeping most of the lowend stuff I have and slowly getting rid of my higher-end stuff if it'll move for a price I want.

bradical · Apr 25, 2010

markakis8 said:
Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

Have you seen the price of my cards on eBay?

Signed,

Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman

Mudcatsfan · Apr 25, 2010

Jurgy25 said:
Another reason why Pujols' are much more expensive are the rarity. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but only a handful of his BC Autos were actually redeemed. So while Lincecum has about 1000 base chrome auto, 500 Refractor Auto, and so on with all the parallels. Pujols' BC Autos are probably only around 250 redeemed, supply is so low compared to the Lincecum's. Also the fact that the Pujols BC have been known to be trimmed, adds to the low amount of true unaltered BC Auto Cards.

That is not the common belief. The Pujols redemption was no secret in 2001, and it is my belief that well over 400-450 of them were redemed.

Then there's the whole theory that Topps probably back-doored the remaining ones into the market even though the official word is that all unclaimed copies were destroyed. Nobody really believes that.

markakis8 · Apr 25, 2010

You can't predict Cy Youngs or MVPs. You just can't. So to say Lincecum could possibly have 5 CY in 10 years is preposterous.

It is amazing to me that Pujols only has three MVP's entering his 10th year of pro baseball. He could easily have 9 of them.

Arguably, Lincecum could have ZERO Cy Youngs (although I agree with his first one over Webb, last year my nod would've went to Wainwright with Lincy second).

matfanofold said:
150/50 (w/l) - ~2500 K's - a 2.80 +/- era and 5 CY awards, maybe then people will start to really shell out?

matfanofold · Apr 25, 2010

Lets not loose sight of this thread. It's not to directly compare the Pujols chrome RC to Lincy. But rather why Lincy has not been put upon the level of greatness he deserves, yet...?

However, if you must, try and compare apples to apples atleast. Lets not forget it was Pujols who made his BC RC iconic, not the other way around. Why has not the Lincy Blue RC auto become iconic yet? Understand?

markakis8 · Apr 25, 2010

LOL, what? You are joking right?

They haven't even played a MLB game yet. What makes them dominant?

bradical said:
markakis8 said:

Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

Click to expand...

Have you seen the price of my cards on eBay?

Signed,

Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman

Mudcatsfan · Apr 25, 2010

bradical said:
markakis8 said:

Dominant pitchers will never ever reach the prices of dominant hitters.

Click to expand...

Have you seen the price of my cards on eBay?

Signed,

Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman

Any pitcher is capable of a giant short term spike, and a major crash because pitchers are measured in highly volatile ratios (several of which are highly dependant on their team) while hitters can always put up big counting numbers.

Example: A hitter has a huge first half with 30 HR, 65 rbi and hitting .350, he then has a 10 hr, 35, rbi, .250 second half.

His baseball card says he hit .300 with 40 HR and 100 RBI

A pitcher that has a torrid 8-0 start with a 0.85 ERA has 2 or 3 bad GAMES and his era will balloon up to 4.5 and suddenly he's viewed as an average player. (no different than a guy who's had a 4.5 era all season)

Aroldis and Strasburg do not negate what Markakis said, because they're currently in the Johnny Cueto, Edison Volquez, Dontrelle Willis portion of their career.

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