'10 Bowman Chrome case prices on November 10th?

With the writing on the wall that this product will have similar results to '10 Topps Chrome, what does everyone think case prices will be a week or 2 after release?

It seems like the big sellers out there are priced high hoping the product doesn't bomb on a wait and see approach. And couple that with the fact that the majority of the big sellers like blowout LOADED up on additional cases at high prices in hopes of a repeat of 2010 Bowman. And last but not least, people backing out of their presale and taking the loss on their deposit which leaves the large wholesalers/distributors with even more inventory.

It just has the feel of a perfect storm where a week after release the big sellers will do what they did with TC but to a much larger extent with a quick clearance to unload stock. I know a wholesaler who purchase WAY too many cases at ridiculously high prices anticipating a gold mine.

I think the week of November 10-17th, prices will hit $500 a case and will bottom out around $425-450 in late November. Anyone agree or think I'm way off base?

the one thing to remember about this product (that new people dont realize) is that it is a veteran player driven set, with (mostly) middle-aged fringe prospects sprinkled in, and then a hand full of powerhouse top-flight rc autos

it will be said MANY times over the next few weeks:

THIS IS NOT BOWMAN DRAFT

dont expect it to be people.

ThoseBackPages said:

the one thing to remember about this product (that new people dont realize) is that it is a veteran player driven set, with (mostly) middle-aged fringe prospects sprinkled in, and then a hand full of powerhouse top-flight rc autos

it will be said MANY times over the next few weeks:

THIS IS NOT BOWMAN DRAFT

dont expect it to be people.

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I'm not sure if you were agreeing or disagreeing with me. The price wasnt inflated because of veterans, it was those who saw the prices of Bowman boxes/cases and Strasburgs that were seeing gold. If you were agreeing with me, then yeah I agree with your assessment. But it just has the writing on the wall to be a massive flop when it comes to the big guys unloading cases at unbelievably low prices.

frzg said:

ThoseBackPages said:

the one thing to remember about this product (that new people dont realize) is that it is a veteran player driven set, with (mostly) middle-aged fringe prospects sprinkled in, and then a hand full of powerhouse top-flight rc autos

it will be said MANY times over the next few weeks:

THIS IS NOT BOWMAN DRAFT

dont expect it to be people.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure if you were agreeing or disagreeing with me. The price wasnt inflated because of veterans, it was those who saw the prices of Bowman boxes/cases and Strasburgs that were seeing gold. If you were agreeing with me, then yeah I agree with your assessment. But it just has the writing on the wall to be a massive flop when it comes to the big guys unloading cases at unbelievably low prices.

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i think it will drop rather significantly.

ESPECIALLY when people rip and their "hit" is a Dan Uggla Orange refractor

Nothing wrong with that pull! I just wonder how much it costs Topps to put out a product like Topps Chrome or Bowman Chrome. Maybe it costs Topps 20 bucks a box to produce and distribute and everyone's been grossly overpaying to bust all along.

ThoseBackPages said:

i think it will drop rather significantly.

ESPECIALLY when people rip and their "hit" is a Dan Uggla Orange refractor

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uniquebaseballcards said:

Nothing wrong with that pull! I just wonder how much it costs Topps to put out a product like Topps Chrome or Bowman Chrome. Maybe it costs Topps 20 bucks a box to produce and distribute and everyone's been grossly overpaying to bust all along.

ThoseBackPages said:

i think it will drop rather significantly.

ESPECIALLY when people rip and their "hit" is a Dan Uggla Orange refractor

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if your ripping for flipping, then yes thats a bad pull lol

ThoseBackPages said:

if your ripping for flipping, then yes thats a bad pull lol

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At a $69.99/box price point it probably is, but not at $30 a box.

uniquebaseballcards said:

ThoseBackPages said:

if your ripping for flipping, then yes thats a bad pull lol

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At a $69.99/box price point it probably is, but not at $30 a box.

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It still is bad at $30 in that case.

These will retail in stores for $99 or much more if the LCS had to go out and buy additional cases and they are in for them a lot higher.

I just see the big guys trying to keep prices high at $899 per case and then went cases start to bust and people start seeing the results, the sky will fall. I see the big companies drastically cutting prices to try and unload their cases.

My local guy usually gets 4-6 cases of BC every year for his customers (not a shop, a small wax dealer). When I asked for prices in August, he was in the $1200 range because he had to pay so much to get them. Instead of going the normal 4-6 cases, he bought 22 anticipating 2010 Bowman all over again. I think the big sellers did this to a much larger scale and they will set the market when they reprice for clearance based off sales.

I think this will also effect 2010 BDP as individuals wont buy into the hype immediately and buy anything with the Bowman label. I think wholesale prices stay much lower than they would any other year.

frzg said:

uniquebaseballcards said:

ThoseBackPages said:

if your ripping for flipping, then yes thats a bad pull lol

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At a $69.99/box price point it probably is, but not at $30 a box.

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It still is bad at $30 in that case.
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Doesn't say much for the investment opportunity no matter the price or checklist then lol

There are a few factors that needs to be considered. Did Topps over-produce this product like TC to meet demand, or did they scale back? If the auto checklist grew with more sub-par rc's? But the big one for me. Will the quality control be better?! This is the number 1 reason why I stayed away from TC. Didn't want to risk finally beating the odds for a great pull only to have the card off-centered severely and chipped.

mancini79 said:

There are a few factors that needs to be considered. Did Topps over-produce this product like TC to meet demand, or did they scale back? If the auto checklist grew with more sub-par rc's? But the big one for me. Will the quality control be better?! This is the number 1 reason why I stayed away from TC. Didn't want to risk finally beating the odds for a great pull only to have the card off-centered severely and chipped.

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The # of autos in the set leads me to believe it is over-produced EXACTLY like Topps Chrome was. If anything, its scaled above topps chrome IMO

frzg said:

mancini79 said:

There are a few factors that needs to be considered. Did Topps over-produce this product like TC to meet demand, or did they scale back? If the auto checklist grew with more sub-par rc's? But the big one for me. Will the quality control be better?! This is the number 1 reason why I stayed away from TC. Didn't want to risk finally beating the odds for a great pull only to have the card off-centered severely and chipped.

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The # of autos in the set leads me to believe it is over-produced EXACTLY like Topps Chrome was. If anything, its scaled above topps chrome IMO

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Agreed

It can be had for somewhere in the mid-$600's for a case, or about $55 a box. I like enough of the autos to bust maybe half a case if the box price would get down to maybe $40 or so.

Guys, the sky isn't falling. We have no idea if it has been overproduced yet or not.

We will know quite a bit more when we see the odds on the wrappers.

At least there aren't 50 freaking autos like topps chrome.

Skrip

ballerskrip said:

Guys, the sky isn't falling. We have no idea if it has been overproduced yet or not.

We will know quite a bit more when we see the odds on the wrappers.

At least there aren't 50 freaking autos like topps chrome.

Skrip

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You're right. Bowman Chrome has only 40 autos in the set. But what you are not thinking about is topps chrome is 2 autos per box which means if you wanted a particular player it was 1:25 rather than Bowman Chromes 1 auto per box which is 1:40.

I did take the 2 per box vs 1 per box into account. Maybe you are forgetting that bowman chrome autographs, and autograph parallels sell MUCH STRONGER than Topps Chrome. MUCH MUCH MUCH stronger. Can't forget that.

Skrip