I wonder: Do FanGraphs/Sabermetric guys ever watch a game?

This article here got me thinking (apologies for the insider): http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6855838/mlb-milwaukee-brewers-upgrade-left-side-infield

I bulk of the story is how badly Milwaukee needs to keel haul Yuni B. and McGehee. I get it, they suck for WAR and have terrible season numbers for a contender. But if you read the article, you have to wonder if this guy just wrote the article and hasn't actually watched a Brewer game for the last month+.

I'm not saying YB and McGehee are stellar; I'm not even defending them. But I can easily shoot holes in an article that reads as if it was written in front of a stat chart and not in front of the TV.

If anyone still wonders, it's moronic articles like this that give sabermetrics haters plenty of ammo.

hive17 said:

If anyone still wonders, it's moronic articles like this that give sabermetrics haters plenty of ammo.

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I don't thins that "coulda", "woulda", and "if"s should be used when determining how good a player is.

What specifically about the article do you think he is wrong about? (Sorry don't have insider so can't read it myself).

I'm not sure what your issue is. Betancourt and McGehee aren't very good. The author says the Brewers can improve at short and third. Do you want him to say "when I was watching the game last Wednesday, in the bottom of the fourth, McGehee dove and missed a ball?"

The 'do sabr guys like/watch baseball' is just about the laziest and most misinformed statement made by the 'other' side. It seems to have replaced the mom's basement theme though. So there's that.

I don't have a problem with saber. There's a place for it, no doubt.

But why would you write an article, in August, about getting rid of Betancourt, when he's having one of the better months in all of baseball and has been one of the hottest post-All Star hitters? And at the same time, suggest replacing him with waiver-wire cast-offs?

I don't want Saber fans to get over defensive like they always do. Like I said, there's a place for it. I guess this thread shouldn't be as much about Saber, as it should be about the idiot writing the article. The idiot who gives credit to the "nerds in a basement looking at stats" arguement that makes everyone so mad.

Poor timing, it looks stupid. That is all. Sorry to offend the sacred cow that is Saber...

I think a problem with number guys is that they deal with averages for the entire season. So an up trend for a month or a couple of weeks won't statistically move those averages very much. I've seen an improvement with McGehee on my fantasy team, drafted him because he played at Fresno State. First half of the season he was terrible but recently he's starting to turn it around and his numbers are matching up with his production for August last season. But the total season for McGehee looks like he should be riding the pine. Number guys have faith that those averages mean the player stinks. Some times the numbers lie, that's why there are great post-season stories every season about players who were cast off and now are heros.

ronfromfresno said:

I think a problem with number guys is that they deal with averages for the entire season. So an up trend for a month or a couple of weeks won't statistically move those averages very much. I've seen an improvement with McGehee on my fantasy team, drafted him because he played at Fresno State. First half of the season he was terrible but recently he's starting to turn it around and his numbers are matching up with his production for August last season. But the total season for McGehee looks like he should be riding the pine. Number guys have faith that those averages mean the player stinks. Some times the numbers lie, that's why there are great post-season stories every season about players who were cast off and now are heros.

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Well, the obvious "numbers" arguement that you can make against this article is that regression to the mean is probably one of the most inarguable trends that exists. Betancourt and McGehee sucked hard the first half, so this guy's solution is to pitch them (during their most productive months no less), rather than wait for them to return to average.

hive17 said:

ronfromfresno said:

I think a problem with number guys is that they deal with averages for the entire season. So an up trend for a month or a couple of weeks won't statistically move those averages very much. I've seen an improvement with McGehee on my fantasy team, drafted him because he played at Fresno State. First half of the season he was terrible but recently he's starting to turn it around and his numbers are matching up with his production for August last season. But the total season for McGehee looks like he should be riding the pine. Number guys have faith that those averages mean the player stinks. Some times the numbers lie, that's why there are great post-season stories every season about players who were cast off and now are heros.

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Well, the obvious "numbers" arguement that you can make against this article is that regression to the mean is probably one of the most inarguable trends that exists. Betancourt and McGehee sucked hard the first half, so this guy's solution is to pitch them (during their most productive months no less), rather than wait for them to return to average.

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I don't have insider so I can't see the article but if the arguement is that it's a seasonal spike, the weather is warmer, ball flying farther or the Brewers are playing terrible teams then the time series forecast should still return the earlier numbers in the end. If that's the case and everyone will start to heat up then a cast off could fill in or do better down the stretch. Unfortunately this is how the Giants seem to think, why else would anybody trade for Oralando Crabrera. ::facepalm:: It worked last season because Cody Ross, whose numbers were average at best, caught fire, just like McGehee or Yuni could this post-season. Of course that's why they play the game, because on paper the Phillies and Red Sox are already in.

His recent hot streak has turned his season from being totaly sucktastic to only partially sucktastic. He still has a 677 OPS for the season. His career OPS is 688. That equals not a very good MLB player. You don't need to watch games to realize that Betancourt is not a very good player.

Oh, trust me- I'm not offended. I don't consider myself a Saber guy, per se. Though I do buy into a good deal of the stats. All I was saying is I thought your comment was incredibly lazy and given my thoughts towards most of your posts, I was surprised.

I didn't read the article as I don't visit ESPN's site but if the crux of it is that Betancourt and McGehee should be turfed right now then you're right it's probably flawed as Yuniesky is among the hottest hitters in baseball (whoa, that looks weird).

But if the point is that the Brewers are a really good team and could be a fair bit better if they weren't employing two corpses on the left side of the infield, then I'd agree. Yuniesky has had an incredible month or so. But prior to that he has been one of the worst, if not the worst, players in baseball for a number of years.

I suppose I should allow for the fact that the article could literally be a few weeks old.

Bottom line is, the article seems silly talking about replacing a guy who is hitting for an unknown. It really comes across as an "on paper" arguement, which is the issue I guess I had with the article.

BTW, Yuni's HR might be the difference today.

Scratch that, WAS the difference.

hive17 said:

I suppose I should allow for the fact that the article could literally be a few weeks old.

Bottom line is, the article seems silly talking about replacing a guy who is hitting for an unknown. It really comes across as an "on paper" arguement, which is the issue I guess I had with the article.

BTW, Yuni's HR might be the difference today.

Scratch that, WAS the difference.

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The other end of the stick in response to your post would be- Wow, this guy knows nothing about how to use any advanced metrics and believes that one month of performance is a telling sample.

People that dont understand advanced numbers like to group them all together, call it names, throw out an insult, and state how invalid they are because X, Y, or Z doesnt fit within their perception.

As for this topic, Yuni is still one of the worst players in baseball, hot streak or not. He is third from the bottom of all shortstops in OBP, the most important simple offensive number. He is 6th from the bottom in terms of wOBA (likely the best single offensive composite stat out there). In terms of defense, I'm not big on using single year samples from one metric (as ESPN has been doing for the last few days). But, he is -12 in Defensive Runs Saved, -11.5 in UZR, and -4 in Baseball Reference's fielding component. For the last few years, he has been historically bad in terms of UZR and DRS. He has .2 WAR on fangraphs and .1 on Baseball Reference. That really does mean you could replace him with an unknown and either be equal of better off. Basically, the dude stinks, still stinks, and will always stink. Using one month of performance is exactly the type of inadequate measurement that you claim "sabermetric guys" use, but coming from the traditional type perspective.

Rays front office and manager are big 'saber' guys.........and we do pretty well on the field, especially having to compete with teams that can spend 8x as much on player salaries. I know you Blue Jays fans are probably pretty happy to have AA in your front office, another big proponent of sabermetrics.