marterburn's 2011 BC auto price predictions

Before eBay gets flooded with these, I though I would throw out my predictions of what the base autos will go for in the first 7-10 days after release. It's a combination of research based on previous autos, and guesswork based on stats and projection (especially if there are none or limited previous autos).

The dollar amounts below are my predictions for sale prices without shipping considerations, and it's more fun to pinpoint one amount than a range for me, so without further ado:

Bryce Harper..........$200
Hunter Morris.........$6
Jean Segura...........$8
Melky Mesa.............$6
Manny Banuelos......$30
Chris Archer...........$6
Danny Brewer........$3
David Bromberg......$3
A.J. Cole.................$3
Alex Colome............$6
Brody Colvin............$3
Khris Davis..............$12
Cutter Dykstra.........$8
Nathan Eovaldi.........$15
Garrett Gould..........$6
Brandon Guyer........$8
Shaeffer Hall............$5
Reese Havens..........$5
Luis Heredia............$10
Aaron Hicks............$10
Bryan Holaday.........$3
Bradley Holt............$5
Brett Lawrie............$80
Matt Lollis...............$3
Starling Marte..........$10
Ethan Martin............$8
Trey McNutt.............$8
Kevius Sampson.......$10
Jordan Swagerty.......$10
Dickie Joe Thon.........$6
Jacob Turner.............$20
Kendrick Perkins........$3
Enny Romero............$5
Christopher Wallace...$3
Brock Holt.................$3
Brandon Laird............$8
Matt Moore................$80
Dustin Ackley.............$20
Eric Hosmer...............$80

That's quite a lot of duds...

I sure hope Topps didn't try to crank the presses like last year and we wind up with lots of cases with absolutely no color (not holding my breath though). Then again, people liked the wrapper redemption program...

cmnkb8 said:

That's quite a lot of duds...

I sure hope Topps didn't try to crank the presses like last year and we wind up with lots of cases with absolutely no color (not holding my breath though). Then again, people liked the wrapper redemption program...

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I hope they didn't either. First year I decided to bust a case of BC instead of Draft (I do 1 case/year). We'll see though, maybe I'll scrounge up enough for a case of Draft too...

cmnkb8 said:

That's quite a lot of duds...

I sure hope Topps didn't try to crank the presses like last year and we wind up with lots of cases with absolutely no color (not holding my breath though). Then again, people liked the wrapper redemption program...

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Oh, I guess I should also say quite a few of those duds have a lot of potential, they just don't look good for quick return. Could be 2008 BC over again.

If Hunter Morris and Aaron Hicks go for less than Khris Davis, something is wrong.

I think Harper will be more. His base bowman still sells for around $230

trolea1234 said:

I think Harper will be more. His base bowman still sells for around $230

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I agree, i see harper base chrome autos going 300-350

I don't think the Hosmers or Lawries will be that high. The PR on these is too high for that to be sustainable. Even the Harper may be cheaper.

As far as autograph print run, Hunter Morris told me he signed 2500 total autographs.

What was the last Bowman product that carried 4+ players whose base auto sold for at least $50-$60 or more the day of release? Based on sheer volume of autos produced, I'm curious to see if the market can support it for an extended period of time. I'm skeptical that Hosmer and Lawrie will sustain an $80 value as well. I think of them as being closer to a Starlin Castro BC auto, maybe slightly more valuable, rather than a Mike Stanton (if that even makes sense).

My prediction regarding Harper base autos is that they end up settling around $150, if not less.

some will be higher than you think...

I'll take 20 A.J. Cole's at $3 per!

Exposfan said:

I'll take 20 A.J. Cole's at $3 per!

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I would take 50, some of these prices are completely ::facepalm::

will Harper's autograph look like garbage again or did he learn how to use a pen?

Kevin

I think Jacob Turner will be at least 50% higher than you estimate, and that Lawrie will be 50% lower. But looks good overall

Youve hit 30 nails on the head why I'm steering clear of this product...and a few will be much lower.

I will buy every Brody Colvin at $3 a piece if you can make that happen.

sheetskout said:

If Hunter Morris and Aaron Hicks go for less than Khris Davis, something is wrong.

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Morris & Hicks had very little action, and what there was was low. Conversely, the action I saw on Davis was high, thus the discrepancy. I couldn't justify putting Morris and Hicks higher, and I think Davis in more of a guess.

Exposfan wrote:
I'll take 20 A.J. Cole's at $3 per!

I would take 50, some of these prices are completely ::facepalm::

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I will buy every Brody Colvin at $3 a piece if you can make that happen.

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Like I said some of these are 100% guesswork; if I'm wrong I'm wrong.

Colvin hasn't had any recent sales and he doesn't look like a 'sexy' prospect -- not many K, not a perfomance this past year, and a 7th round pick to boot. But he is in the Phillies system...
With Cole I see now where I'm probably a little low, but two EEEs just sold for $2 and $3.

I think Jacob Turner will be at least 50% higher than you estimate, and that Lawrie will be 50% lower.

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I debated Turner quite a bit, but there isn't much to go on with him either. Lawrie was a gut call. I know his latest Razor sales indicate more of a $50-60 sales average for BC, but I have a feeling with it being his first MLB licensed card there will be a hefty premium.

I'm skeptical that Hosmer and Lawrie will sustain an $80 value as well.

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Oh I don't think they'll sustain either, I'm just talking first 7-10 days here. I based my Hosmer number on Topps Chrome autos, and the belief that the vanity of BC is a bit greater than TC, but both will be hurt by the fact that he's in both.

I very much appreciate the effort though! People in Wisconsin aren't even that high on Khris Davis. Honestly I don't see him ever suiting up for the Brewers. He's got power, but that's about it (and he's old for his levels).

Hicks and Morris have a WAY higher ceiling. Thanks for the read!

I'll take 50 Brody Colvins at $3 ea.