Someone convince me I am not nuts (superfractor pick-up)

Topnotchsy · Jan 16, 2012

Saw this was ending in a few minutes and threw out a bid. Thought process was that he is a Yankee, Montero was just moved, and who knows... It was late and was after an insanely long day. Now much less confident with that reasoning lol. Cost a hair over $200. How bad a pick-up is it?

$(KGrHqF,!lsE8FszzOC9BPDL3UwW5Q~~60_12.JPG

Keyser Soze · Jan 16, 2012

Ignoring the potential to make/lose money, it's a really nice card. I am floored everytime I see his age. I always think he's 10 years older than he is, which is, unfortunately, a byproduct of his statistical decline

longbomberz · Jan 16, 2012

I'm not as knowledgable as a lot of the people on here about this kind of stuff, but I could see that going for a lot more than $200 if he ever gets really hot for a couple weeks or has a big hit in the playoffs.

A_Pharis · Jan 16, 2012

If he starts mashing - you'll make money. Nice buy.

James52411 · Jan 16, 2012

It's a decent price for the superfractor rookie card of a guy who will end up playing 10-15 years in the bigs, including starting stints with two major market teams. Martin's made 3 all-star teams and may end up making a couple more by the time he's done given the weakness of the position. At the same time, I don't see anyone paying too much more for that card than you did anytime soon. I think you paid a reasonable price for the card, but I don't see much profit there until a good bit of time passes and a team or player collector wants a centerpiece for his collection and is willing to drop a few hundred dollar bills to get it.

sportscardtheory · Jan 16, 2012

I think it's a great buy for the price. Starting catchers get good hobby love, especially when they win in the playoffs. Martin has a good post-season and that card doubles in value (or quadruples if he has a Yadier Molina-like playoff).

WaxPax · Jan 16, 2012

For the price you paid, that is a solid pickup....as mentioned it could easily be flipped for profit with a good start to the season.....

gradedeflator · Jan 16, 2012

agree with everything that has been said--i think at the very worst you could recoup your cost, with high chance of some upside.

for example, I happen to collect Dodger cards and this would be something I would always consider adding to the collection at some point in the future--he had a strong fan-base while playing in LA, following in a long lineage of very good or very popular or both cathers--Campy, Scioscia, Piazza, Lo Duca, etc.

Not including Konerko (who started off as a C and then was traded for Jeff Shaw) and most recently Carlos Santana (ugh)

A_Pharis · Jan 16, 2012

I actually think you could make money right away. I'm fairly sure there's a big Russ Martin collector on the board that would love to have it at that price or better.

boomo · Jan 16, 2012

i just paid 200 for a super of a 16 year old kid who will probably be washing floors 6-7 years
from now, so i think you did great on that.

Russ S. · Jan 16, 2012

boomo said:
i just paid 200 for a super of a 16 year old kid who will probably be washing floors 6-7 years
from now, so i think you did great on that.

:lol: :lol:

hail2thevictors · Jan 16, 2012

boomo said:
i just paid 200 for a super of a 16 year old kid who will probably be washing floors 6-7 years
from now, so i think you did great on that.

:lol: :lol: Nicely done.

Pretty solid pickup IMO, OP.

TNP777 · Jan 16, 2012

boomo said:
i just paid 200 for a super of a 16 year old kid who will probably be washing floors 6-7 years
from now, so i think you did great on that.

All The Hype · Jan 16, 2012

I think if you list that as a BIN/BO at something like $500, I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone offered you $300+, especially as we get closer to the season again.

Wes · Jan 16, 2012

Good buy.

scotty21690 · Jan 16, 2012

If anything you bought a superfractor from the nicest looking Bowman Chrome set to date....

ThoseBackPages said:
ETCHING!!

Disclaimer: This is not a direct quote from Eric

I think there is $ to be made on it though....all it takes is one game.

uniquebaseballcards · Jan 16, 2012

James52411 said:
It's a decent price for the superfractor rookie card of a guy who will end up playing 10-15 years in the bigs, including starting stints with two major market teams. Martin's made 3 all-star teams and may end up making a couple more by the time he's done given the weakness of the position. At the same time, I don't see anyone paying too much more for that card than you did anytime soon. I think you paid a reasonable price for the card, but I don't see much profit there until a good bit of time passes and a team or player collector wants a centerpiece for his collection and is willing to drop a few hundred dollar bills to get it.

The interesting thing is - why, if given the above facts about how good a player he is, was and possibly will be, why did the card sell so cheaply compared to other supers of players with no big league experience? There's an obvious disconnect somewhere.

I almost put a bid on the card myself but I've a somewhat similar card of his that's less shiney:

2005%20Bowman%20Draft%20Picks%20and%20Prospects%20Red%20BDP135%20Russ%20Martin%20FY.jpg

Topnotchsy · Jan 16, 2012

uniquebaseballcards said:
The interesting thing is - why, if given the above facts about how good a player he is, was and possibly will be, why did the card sell so cheaply compared to other supers of players with no big league experience? There's an obvious disconnect somewhere.

I think there are a number of answers to this question.

1. The first, and one I think you are alluding to, is the fact that market clearly does not make sense. People who are investing in prospects and young players are pushing prices to points where there the likelihood of the card staying that high is extremely low. People who invest all say that this is fine since they plan on selling long before then, but looking at any market one has to assume that this model will have difficulty in sustaining over the long run.

In response to that I would say that this happened (a mini collapse) a few years ago when things got crazy and guys like Delmon Young and Alex Gordon's Bowman Chrome RC Auto's were getting in the $200 range. That said, the fact that there are collectors who target these guys and really are not cost conscious (and often buy in at the worst possible times like when the player gets called up, or does something significant) helps keep that imbalance from causing more issues.

2. It is possible with veterans (not saying it is the case with Martin here but could be) that their card could easily get overlooked by people who are interested in it. With prospects, there are always people who are willing to bid up to a certain people even if they are not really interested in the card themselves, because they know that there's an easy profit. No one is searching Martin cards all the time looking to make a profit and so this safety net of sorts is not there and the price could be much lower than what it could have been had those people seen the card.

3. Quite frankly, there is much less potential on this card (IMO) than most prospect cards in this price range. I know people have been very positive about the purchase, and I do hope that some of the things that are mentioned play out, but there's also a chance that the Yankees find another catcher over one who hit .237 last year, and he winds up as a back-up.

MOFNY · Jan 16, 2012

One of my favorite Superfractor designs. It might be my favorite BC design.

uniquebaseballcards · Jan 16, 2012

Topnotchsy said:
uniquebaseballcards said:

The interesting thing is - why, if given the above facts about how good a player he is, was and possibly will be, why did the card sell so cheaply compared to other supers of players with no big league experience? There's an obvious disconnect somewhere.

Click to expand...

I think there are a number of answers to this question.

1. The first, and one I think you are alluding to, is the fact that market clearly does not make sense. People who are investing in prospects and young players are pushing prices to points where there the likelihood of the card staying that high is extremely low. People who invest all say that this is fine since they plan on selling long before then, but looking at any market one has to assume that this model will have difficulty in sustaining over the long run.

In response to that I would say that this happened (a mini collapse) a few years ago when things got crazy and guys like Delmon Young and Alex Gordon's Bowman Chrome RC Auto's were getting in the $200 range. That said, the fact that there are collectors who target these guys and really are not cost conscious (and often buy in at the worst possible times like when the player gets called up, or does something significant) helps keep that imbalance from causing more issues.

2. It is possible with veterans (not saying it is the case with Martin here but could be) that their card could easily get overlooked by people who are interested in it. With prospects, there are always people who are willing to bid up to a certain people even if they are not really interested in the card themselves, because they know that there's an easy profit. No one is searching Martin cards all the time looking to make a profit and so this safety net of sorts is not there and the price could be much lower than what it could have been had those people seen the card.

3. Quite frankly, there is much less potential on this card (IMO) than most prospect cards in this price range. I know people have been very positive about the purchase, and I do hope that some of the things that are mentioned play out, but there's also a chance that the Yankees find another catcher over one who hit .237 last year, and he winds up as a back-up.

I see what you're saying here and agree under certain circumstances. IMO too much investor activity completely clouds the market... its *especially* the case when there's no hobby history to go on (first supers were in 2005 like the one here).

But with regard to the nature of the specific card you purchased - it being a 1/1 obviously - one would think there would be at some point (even ten years from now) there'd be more Russ Martin fans out there who'd be willing to shell out more than two bills for that or similar 1/1 card... so to me anyway if one is looking at this card as an investment it seems it would be a long-term investment than the short-term one that Bowman is commonly associated with. Also since its a 1/1 it could conceivably outsell 1/1s of bigger name stars.

The card you purchased has made its rounds on the 'bay a couple times this past year, I don't remember how much it sold for, or if it even exchanged hands at all for that matter.

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