Who'd you rather...Addison Russell or Gregory Polanco

[sigma_chi]

Who is the better buy right now and who would be a better long term buy? Both arguably top 25-30 prospects that play premium positions for teams who get plenty of hobby love. Russell's base autos are a tick higher right now at about $38 compared to $33-35 for Polanco but the difference is inconsequential really.

Polanco is an excellent defender, doesn't strike-out very much at all, appears pretty consistent...I mean he doesn't go on tears and then fall off, he stays at consistantly the same numbers each 10 game period. Has tremendous speed and although extremely slender could easily develop into a 20-25+ HR hitter as he has the frame to put on 20-30 lbs of muscle. He's 21 and has done very well in Lo-A, Hi-A, and so far in AA. He's also slightly less known as a prospect due to being an international signee and starting out his career with 3 rough, injury plagued seasons. I think some experts are in a "yeah but let's see him do it again" sort of process with him after last year although more and more are starting to buy into his hype train. Should shoot up top 100 lists this year and that alone will bring more attention to his cards.

Russell-also a good defender, 19 years old in A+, better body than Polanco...4" shorter, but 25-30 lbs heavier. Tore up every level he went to last year, started off this year in a slump but has been outstanding over th epast month or so. Plate discipline sort of confuses me as he takes a ton of walks but has been striking out a lot so I don't know. Doesn't run as much as Polanco but has aabove average speed and is a "smart" baserunner so it's not out of the question to see him sneak 20+ steals in. Looks to have solid power potential himself, maybe moreso than Polanco. Will probably add some muscle to his frame but like I said he's already very solid right now. Could sneak in at the back end of the top 10 in several EOY lists so that could drive prices.

Right now I own way more Polanco than I do Russell but the more I think about it, Russell might be a better buy both right now and long-term. What say you FCB?

 

[sheetskout]

Polanco has the speed to stay at a premium position (CF) for a long time. Russell on the other hand would take a tremendous hit in his value if he moves off SS.

 

[sigma_chi]

Polanco has the speed to stay at a premium position (CF) for a long time. Russell on the other hand would take a tremendous hit in his value if he moves off SS.

True, but McCutchen is firmly entrenched in CF, Starling Marte is also a converted CF...both locked up for several years so a position change to a corner spot might be in the cards for Polanco the closer he gets to Pittsburgh. Not sure how much moving from CF to RF/LF would affect his prices (if any) but you've got to think it's a possibility.

 

[Lars]

Russell - maybe a dim view but he has pedigree as a top draft pick and who is a shortstop - if he can continue to hold his own for now, he's probably your next hyped up top prospect SS when his stats do blow up.

 

[shayscards79]

I think Russell will continue to figure out A+ pitching and his stats will get much better. Considering Polanco just got promoted from A+, Id say Russell has more upside and therefore a better investment. Of course others have mentioned the position variable also.

 

[sigma_chi]

Another question I have thought about.......will the lack of numbering on the 2012 Russell Refractor autos hinder their value in proportion to say Polanco's Ref Autos which are #'d /500. I'll be honest I personally feel that the unnumbered refractors just won't hold up over the years due the unknown print run. I think they will always command a premium over a base auto but don't quite think the usual Base to Ref Auto multiplier will hold up for that year.

 

[sheetskout]

True, but McCutchen is firmly entrenched in CF, Starling Marte is also a converted CF...both locked up for several years so a position change to a corner spot might be in the cards for Polanco the closer he gets to Pittsburgh. Not sure how much moving from CF to RF/LF would affect his prices (if any) but you've got to think it's a possibility.

Agreed regarding McCutchen, but tell me this. What's a bigger hit to someone's value? Moving off of SS to 2B or moving from CF to RF? The good thing about these players are that they aren't starting in superstar markets so if traded they really have nowhere to go but up (unless dealt to Florida or something....which also could happen).

To me, they are both special players. But, also to me, a Pittsburgh-based potential 5-tool CF is a better bet than a Oakland-based SS who scouts have always said may not have the body-type to stick at SS.

Factor this into it as well.....a fully-pumped Pittsburgh market is better than a fully-pumped Oakland market. In other words, when both teams are playing well and team sentiment is high, I would take the profitability of the Pittsburgh market over Oakland. We haven't realized the potential of the Pittsburgh baseball market in a long time. And they're starting to play really well. Oakland, however, has experienced much success and it's still hard to move Athletics prospects. (This is a guy who was heavy into Cahill, Anderson, Carter, etc)

Disclaimer: I don't currently own any Gregory Polanco or Addison Russell autographs or cards.

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

Agreed regarding McCutchen, but tell me this. What's a bigger hit to someone's value? Moving off of SS to 2B or moving from CF to RF? The good thing about these players are that they aren't starting in superstar markets so if traded they really have nowhere to go but up (unless dealt to Florida or something....which also could happen).

To me, they are both special players. But, also to me, a Pittsburgh-based potential 5-tool CF is a better bet than a Oakland-based SS who scouts have always said may not have the body-type to stick at SS.

Factor this into it as well.....a fully-pumped Pittsburgh market is better than a fully-pumped Oakland market. In other words, when both teams are playing well and team sentiment is high, I would take the profitability of the Pittsburgh market over Oakland. We haven't realized the potential of the Pittsburgh baseball market in a long time. And they're starting to play really well. Oakland, however, has experienced much success and it's still hard to move Athletics prospects. (This is a guy who was heavy into Cahill, Anderson, Carter, etc)

Disclaimer: I don't currently own any Gregory Polanco or Addison Russell autographs or cards.

I appreciate your logic surrounding the team market more so than the potential for position changes affecting card prices. I will say this, Yoenis Cespedes got plenty of love in the Oakland market.

 

[sheetskout]

I appreciate your logic surrounding the team market more so than the potential for position changes affecting card prices. I will say this, Yoenis Cespedes got plenty of love in the Oakland market.

Agreed. But Yoenis Cespedes was a hugely-hyped international star when he went to the Athletics. (There's profit to be made in Oakland, I just find it to be one of the trickier markets in MLB, no?)

Let's try this then. Name me a bunch of SS's whom converted to 2B who became prospecting studs. I'm not challenging you I'm just asking. And I'm going to have to think about this for a minute as well.......

Because at first glance, I can think of more players converted in the OF that did seemingly nothing to their value than I can SS's that even busted out as a 2nd baseman...again, I'll have to think about this one though.

This was also my fear regarding Jean Segura. And yes, I was one who thought he'd be moved from SS already and NEVER saw this offense coiming - very similar players in my opinion)

 

[jcmint]

the whole market concept is just not true. Ill take polanco

 

[sheetskout]

the whole market concept is just not true. Ill take polanco

Can you explain please?

 

[SydBarrett]

I'm a firm believer in the market having a bigger impact than people like to admit, and for that reason I will take Polanco. Three years from now when Pittsburgh is an actual contender, they are going to have another young stud centerfielder who is making a significant impact. Not taking anything away from Russell, but the Athletics will still be the second most popular team in the Bay Area. Russell is a fine player but I don't see him staying at shortstop.

 

[sheetskout]

I'm a firm believer in the market having a bigger impact than people like to admit, and for that reason I will take Polanco. Three years from now when Pittsburgh is an actual contender, they are going to have another young stud centerfielder who is making a significant impact. Not taking anything away from Russell, but the Athletics will still be the second most popular team in the Bay Area. Russell is a fine player but I don't see him staying at shortstop.

Am I crazy for asking this but is this an actual thing? There are prospectors that actually deny that market demographics have an impact on prices? Eh? Is that what was meant above? Wha?

 

[hail2thevictors]

the whole market concept is just not true. Ill take polanco

Have to disagree here. I think one great example is Jacob Turner. As a Tiger, he was selling pretty darn well (while in AAA and also while in the majors), then he gets dealt to the Miami Marlins, and his cards are absolutely dirt cheap. He has had 5 or 6 great starts this year, and his autos are still dirt cheap. I would be willing to guess that if he was still with the Tigers, his cards would be selling quite a bit better.

 

[longbomberz]

Have to disagree here. I think one great example is Jacob Turner. As a Tiger, he was selling pretty darn well (while in AAA and also while in the majors), then he gets dealt to the Miami Marlins, and his cards are absolutely dirt cheap. He has had 5 or 6 great starts this year, and his autos are still dirt cheap. I would be willing to guess that if he was still with the Tigers, his cards would be selling quite a bit better.

Is that market or team success? I don't disagree Detroit is probably a better market than Miami in a vacuum, but if Detroit was 12 games under .500 with Turner I don't think he'd have a premium.

 

[sheetskout]

Is that market or team success? I don't disagree Detroit is probably a better market than Miami in a vacuum, but if Detroit was 12 games under .500 with Turner I don't think he'd have a premium.

Market as in fan-base/population size of the contingent following the team. As an example, I'm not sure the New York Mets in their worst years were ever a worse market than Milwaukee in it's worst years.... They just have to many people and media outlets to create hype. The Mets at their worst would still be a middle-market among all teams as related to prices in my opinion.

 

[shayscards79]

When it comes to just prospecting, I'm going to have to go with JC.

The vast majority of prospectors aren't just buying local. I buy anbody that has upside and room for movement regardless of team. Chances are, I'm going to sell before callup or right at callup anyway.

Now if you keeping holding till a guy makes a name for himself in the majors, or are selling vets, sure market makes a big difference. But prospectors are everywhere, buying any one who may go up in value because of hype and performance.

 

[bear0555]

I never got over Russell's rep of being a 3b. Polanco is a true 5 tooler with a floor of solid regular and ceiling of a perennial all star.

 

[bmc398]

When it comes to just prospecting, I'm going to have to go with JC.

The vast majority of prospectors aren't just buying local. I buy anbody that has upside and room for movement regardless of team. Chances are, I'm going to sell before callup or right at callup anyway.

Now if you keeping holding till a guy makes a name for himself in the majors, or are selling vets, sure market makes a big difference. But prospectors are everywhere, buying any one who may go up in value because of hype and performance.

I think market matters....especially if you are buying in AA or AAA waiting on that Major League call up. At that point, that's when the casual collector hops in the market and buys who is hot...and then it does matter what market you are in. Obviously that is not a current factor now with these guys but definitely could be in the future.

The Pittsburgh fanbase/market is INSANE when it comes to supporting good teams and the teams and players they love. I could see Polanco long term getting a bounce because of that.