Yasiel Puig vs Jeff Francoeur

[RogerMarisCollector61]

Interesting Read

Jeff Francoeur's Fate and Yasiel Puig's Future - Beyond the Box Score

 

[VOTC]

Interesting Read

Jeff Francoeur's Fate and Yasiel Puig's Future - Beyond the Box Score

Very good read. All the hype on this kid, and other "hot" prospects always gives me pause. Home runs garner news but is there any Sabr data that prospect collectors use to help determine of someone is the real deal? I mean it seems crazy that this guy can have a top 50 list already.

 

[prospectorgems]

Not to get away from the topic, but those spray charts are pretty cool. Imagine the effort put into making the chart....I am sure it's not accurate, but cool nonetheless.

 

[VandyDan]

Very good read. All the hype on this kid, and other "hot" prospects always gives me pause. Home runs garner news but is there any Sabr data that prospect collectors use to help determine of someone is the real deal? I mean it seems crazy that this guy can have a top 50 list already.

Real Deal meaning you could make money? These days, cards come out so hot out of the gate that the risk outweighs the reward in most cases. BUT...

If it's just having a $30 card become a $50 card before call-up, then it is pretty much HRs and Ks. Prospectors sell to prospectors, and a lot of prospectors are bad at it, and buy at peak, pre-callup prices. These people like HR and K.

If you are interested in seeing which players might become quality big league regulars, for batters, I look at AVG, OBP, Walk%, K%, BABIP and ISO. BABIP and ISO tend to tell you which player is simply riding an ungodly hot streak, and who is performing at a reasonable rate. Low walk-rate=high variance in BA/Power because so much of their success is based on hitting the ball to the right place (it magnifies slumps).

For pitchers, BABIP-against, K-rate, and Strand Rate. If he's stranding 80%plus of people he walks/gives up hits to, he's going to have a mean case of mean reversion.

the funny thing about numbers, though, is they never predict when a reversion is going to happen. I mean, you could flip a coin 100,000 heads in a row, and it doesn't change the odds of the next flip.

Puig could have a career .400 BABIP. who knows.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Real Deal meaning you could make money? These days, cards come out so hot out of the gate that the risk outweighs the reward in most cases. BUT...

If it's just having a $30 card become a $50 card before call-up, then it is pretty much HRs and Ks. Prospectors sell to prospectors, and a lot of prospectors are bad at it, and buy at peak, pre-callup prices. These people like HR and K.

If you are interested in seeing which players might become quality big league regulars, for batters, I look at AVG, OBP, Walk%, K%, BABIP and ISO. BABIP and ISO tend to tell you which player is simply riding an ungodly hot streak, and who is performing at a reasonable rate. Low walk-rate=high variance in BA/Power because so much of their success is based on hitting the ball to the right place (it magnifies slumps).

For pitchers, BABIP-against, K-rate, and Strand Rate. If he's stranding 80%plus of people he walks/gives up hits to, he's going to have a mean case of mean reversion.

the funny thing about numbers, though, is they never predict when a reversion is going to happen. I mean, you could flip a coin 100,000 heads in a row, and it doesn't change the odds of the next flip.

Puig could have a career .400 BABIP. who knows.

This is a great analysis, it makes tons of sense. To take a slightly different point of view but still using your analogy here, its often just best to wait after a bunch of coin flips happen before making a purchase instead of buying immediately - after all, almost everything will always be available.

 

[VandyDan]

This is a great analysis, it makes tons of sense. To take a slightly different point of view but still using your analogy here, its often just best to wait after a bunch of coin flips happen before making a purchase instead of buying immediately - after all, almost everything will always be available.

Thanks. I've been told I'm misusing the term. I meant Regression to the mean.

Just by way of example, here are some guys that are at top prospect lists that are way outperforming a reasonable stat.

Byron Buxton has a .404 BABIP so far this season. Now, some context: in the past 67 years, there have been all of two BABIPs of .404 or greater across a full season. Even players that specialize in high contact rates and line drives (Manny Ramirez, Ichiro, Jeter, Vladdy) cannot maintain close to that (Ichiro is around .346 career). An average BABIP is around .295-.300. Over time, fewer of his batted balls will end up as hits.

Albert Almora has a 4% walk rate (which is an almost 100% improvement from last year!). He will really be a slave to the fluctuations in luck as to where balls go in terms of his ability to get on base. This will magnify his slumps (and also make for some killer streaks)

Joey Gallo. Beyond striking out at what can only be called a histoic pace (on track for around 257 in a 162 game season, and that is without seeing truly nasty breaking stuff), he is currently toting and ISO of .315. The league average for this stat (slugging-BA, effectively a measure of extra bases). this is higher than Bonds' career ISO. Now, Chris Davis currently has an ISO of around 392. So it can last for a large chunk of a season, or can be reflective of massive power, or who knows. The point is, he is truly exceeding averages even for top-notch power guys, and striking out at a historic rate. Now, I'm normally not that anti-K, but if it is happening at that rate before you even see the top pitchers, it is cause for concern.


So, back to Yasiel Puig. He currently has a .494 BABIP and .268 ISO. the iso is pretty normal for a top power guy. It is actually about the same as Pedro Alvarez. The BABIP means that of all the balls Puig puts in play, almost HALF! are hits. That is insane. As are his secondary metrics for batted balls (IFH%, HR/FB), but those are just too much to get into. Some guys do hover around higher than average BABIPs (which makes sense--some guys hit more line drives and with more 'smack' on the ball, which Puig certainly does). But that might sustain a BABIP of .335 at the most. Anything more than that is just unreliable.

As for pitchers, I'd have to look harder. I don't really pay attention to pitching prospects much. They're just dice rolls to me.