Player Collectors: 2004 Skybox LE Artist Proof

[RStadlerASU22]

I think it's important that, with the Football set, it is demonstrated that Fleer did consider not having Artist Proof cards of the rookies, and makes it more likely that they would also consider doing so in another set.

Math finally came to me, and I calculated some odds. Assuming equal serial numbering (/50), and counting the cards we have seen as equal (i.e., not distinguishing between the /50s and the unnumbered bankruptcy cards), the chance that we would see 42 cards from the first 110 cards, and 0 cards after that, is 0.00000000394%. That's a bit less than 1 chance in 250 million. Meanwhile, the odds that we would see 42 cards from the first 100 cards, and none from 101-110, is 0.6%.

Although there is no evidence to support it, it is also possible that the prospect cards were numbered differently than were the non-prospect cards.

With that knowledge, unless evidence comes to light that prospect cards did indeed have Artist Proof parallels, I would feel very comfortable removing this card from my checklist.

Yeah being that its 9 years later and those who are looking for the prospect cards haven't seen 1, I'd say it would be hard to say they exist. Then with even the unnumbered not passing 100 I think it's prob unrealistic

Ryan

 

[LWMM]

Yeah being that its 9 years later and those who are looking for the prospect cards haven't seen 1, I'd say it would be hard to say they exist. Then with even the unnumbered not passing 100 I think it's prob unrealistic

Ryan

Yeah. I'm all for giving the benefit of the doubt that cards do exist, but in this instance I think there's enough evidence that they don't.

By the way, did you get my PM about my interest in your Gomes cards?

 

[r2d2]

I think it's important that, with the Football set, it is demonstrated that Fleer did consider not having Artist Proof cards of the rookies, and makes it more likely that they would also consider doing so in another set.

Math finally came to me, and I calculated some odds. Assuming equal serial numbering (/50), and counting the cards we have seen as equal (i.e., not distinguishing between the /50s and the unnumbered bankruptcy cards), the chance that we would see 42 cards from the first 110 cards, and 0 cards after that, is 0.00000000394%. That's a bit less than 1 chance in 250 million. Meanwhile, the odds that we would see 42 cards from the first 100 cards, and none from 101-110, is 0.6%.

Although there is no evidence to support it, it is also possible that the prospect cards were numbered differently than were the non-prospect cards.

With that knowledge, unless evidence comes to light that prospect cards did indeed have Artist Proof parallels, I would feel very comfortable removing this card from my checklist.

With the extensive research you have made, including other collectors of the set, and also a very good appliance of statistics, I'd say you deserve to knock this one out of your checklist.

 

[RStadlerASU22]

Yeah. I'm all for giving the benefit of the doubt that cards do exist, but in this instance I think there's enough evidence that they don't.

By the way, did you get my PM about my interest in your Gomes cards?

Hey, I will check my PMs when I get home. Sorry for the delay , I meant to get to em last night

Ryan

 

[theplasticman]

Any Erstad?

 

[predatorkj]

I have the base, base diecut, photographer's proof numbered to /50, and the artist's proof that's unnumbered.

 

[LWMM]

@Pinbreaker, man, that's a sweet card. That's one of the earliest 1/1s of Gomes, and one of the coolest. Would love to find it.

That card also raises an interesting side question. If the prospect Artist Proofs don't exist, do the prospect executive proofs? We'd have to find an executive proof of one of the 111-160 cards to be sure.

From eBay. Looks like Prospect Executive Proof cards do indeed exist.

 

[LWMM]

Just updated the list with what's available on COMC (active/sold) and eBay. It adds 16 further examples, although most are simply additional copies, or a numbered card where a card was previously seen only as in unnumbered form. Three cards had not been seen before.

In any event, there are still no cards above #99 on the list, so the previous conclusion—that Artist Proofs were very likely not issued for prospect cards, and perhaps not for any card above #100—holds.

 

[LWMM]

Just did another update based on what's on COMC (active/sold) and eBay. The only fully new example is Curt Schilling, no version of which I'd seen before. Potentially partially new examples are of (1) Tony Batista, which was previously on the list as /un#'d, and now with a copy advertised as /50, but with exact serial number not given (I've reached out to ask), and Jacque Jones, who was previously bolded (probably because I'd seen his card and wasn't sure whether it was numbered or /un#'d), and is now added as 39/50. Then, I added eight numbered examples of six different cards that we already had numbered examples of: Jim Thome 46/50, Greg Maddux 19/50, Luis Gonzalez 26/50, Torii Hunter 10/50 and 14/50, Austin Kearns 15/50, and Lance Berkman 1/50 and 7/50.

This brings us up to 46 examples, 28 of which are definitely serial numbered as opposed to backdoored. Meanwhile, given that each of the new additions is between #11 and #93 on the checklist, this further reinforces the theory that these parallels were issued for only the first 100 (or possibly 110, since 111 is where the prospects begin) of the checklist.

 

[banjar]

Never encountered this thread before, but it's helpful stuff. I'm pretty much convinced I need to check Alomar (#27) off my checklist. Such a bizarre issue.

 

[LWMM]

Never encountered this thread before, but it's helpful stuff. I'm pretty much convinced I need to check Alomar (#27) off my checklist. Such a bizarre issue.

I would think that it's more likely than not that the Alomar exists. The only discrepancy seems to be after card #100. Likewise, accounting for 46/100 examples (whether serial numbered or backdoored) seems like a decent number given that we didn't start keeping track until ten years after the set was released—it doesn't suggest to me that the other 54 don't exist, just that they haven't been seen.

 

[LWMM]

Added Josh Beckett 18/50 (13/50 and 29/50 were already on the list). It was on eBay advertised as "/50" when I made the update above, and the seller just provided the serial number.