Replacement Costs - The Future of Vintage Game-Used Cards

[Topnotchsy]

Hey all,

As my collecting has expanded over the years to include items beyond cards, I have started keeping an eye on many of the big sports auction sites. It is always fun to see what pieces of history are available and the prices that they realize.

One thing I have noticed is that when it comes to vintage game-used, in many cases, particularly for jerseys, the cost to purchase the full item is far more than the price it would get cut up and put into cards.

For example, a Joe DiMaggio jersey just sold in a Goldin auction for $169,400. Assuming that each jersey makes roughly 2000 cards, that would be about $85 per card just for the cost of the materials. (It would be a bit less because there would be a bunch of patch cards which would fetch major premiums.)

Meanwhile this DiMaggio jersey card just sold on eBay for $42:

Meanwhile, jerseys for Ruth look like they may not be available again for under $1,000,000, especially after an early jersey went for $4.4 million. (Of course that is if they are available at all...)

At $1,000,000 for a jersey, each swatch cost roughly $500, far more than the price of a jersey card today.



What does that mean for the collecting market?

I think it means a number of things.

For starters I think we will see far more game-used pants cards, as in a baseball card, GU pants sell for almost as much as jerseys, something that is far from true for full game-worn items. (To illustrate, a pair of Ruth's GU pants sold for $90,000 a little while back, and a current listing of Gehrig pants is expected to sell for around $50,000 in a Heritage listing.) At those prices, the companies will get the best bang for their buck.

We will also continue to see far more bat cards than jersey cards, since bats still remain far more "reasonably" priced. That likely has to do with the fact that a player may have used many bats in a season, but it is generally assumed that when guys like Ruth and Gehrig were playing, each player got 2 home jerseys and 2 road jerseys each season, so there's not a ton to go around.

It also seems we will be seeing other interesting items cut up like socks etc. and if the past is any indication, the companies will not offer much insight into what the cards are from.


I do think that with the way things have gone and the loss of confidence in where the game-used materials are coming from, if a company would step up and be transparent with what they use, and buy some premium items, I think that it could be a big attraction to the set that it's in.

Meanwhile, I'll keep picking up the vintage game-used cards from back when the companies were more transparent.

Thoughts?

 

[A_Pharis]

I don't think the secondary market sale prices on cards effect the return for the card company, directly. Their return comes from direct product sales.

The long-term issue would be declining secondary market prices driving down desire for said cards in product on behalf of the major breakers/card sellers. The thing about that, though, is that a non-GU option can be introduced by the companies, as needed, that would likely garner interest in future product. As long as the companies are getting the direct sales, I don't think they're worried.

 

[A_Pharis]

To elaborate.

You said a million dollar jersey would equate to $500 per swatch (at 2000 swatches), but it'd be over that if you include the labor involved in the process. That said - that cost is factored into the product price on direct sales. Your "$500 per swatch" is being interpreted by you as a "cost" when I think you're describing "value". In an industry where there's a middle-man, only he's concerned about that value.

 

[Topnotchsy]

To elaborate.

You said a million dollar jersey would equate to $500 per swatch (at 2000 swatches), but it'd be over that if you include the labor involved in the process. That said - that cost is factored into the product price on direct sales. Your "$500 per swatch" is being interpreted by you as a "cost" when I think you're describing "value". In an industry where there's a middle-man, only he's concerned about that value.

I definitely hear what you are saying and agree, I just can't see one of the card companies spending a sum on a piece of memorabilia that they know will sell for less than that when pulled from packs.

Now that I am thinking about it I wonder if this is the case with some players who sign for the sets. That said, IMO it's a huge difference paying $25 per auto card for a player who sells for $20, and dropping $100,000+ on a game-used item that cut up will sell for less.

It definitely seems like over the last few years it seems like for many of the bigger names, the companies are mostly putting out bat cards. (This definitely seems to be the trend for Ruth cards from what I have seen.)

I wonder which company will buy the Gehrig pants being sold by Heritage now. To me that's a "no-brainer" pick-up for a card company.

 

[michaelstepper]

To me.. the difference in pants or jersey is moot. Sure in a jersey piece there might be some stitching or patch available, but for the most part it looks the same, feels the same and the player didn't play pant less so it's all worn by the same guy.
I'm proud to say I have some christy mathewson pants among others.

 

[Topnotchsy]

To me.. the difference in pants or jersey is moot. Sure in a jersey piece there might be some stitching or patch available, but for the most part it looks the same, feels the same and the player didn't play pant less so it's all worn by the same guy.
I'm proud to say I have some christy mathewson pants among others.

I think once cut up, a lot of the difference disappears. Displayed whole, it's a bit of a different story

 

[michaelstepper]

I think once cut up, a lot of the difference disappears. Displayed whole, it's a bit of a different story

This is true.. in a card, it simply doesn't matter to me.
Now a jersey/pant piece is preferred over a bat any day

 

[Austin]

Good, I hope the astronomical auction prices for full jerseys of legends like DiMaggio and Ruth prevent card companies from destroying them.
It's a shame that so many uniforms have been cut up and that so few remain, relatively speaking.

I understand the argument that jersey cards allow the common collector the chance to own a piece of history. I used to think game-used cards were awesome. But it's just gone too far.

The few remaining legends' full jerseys should be left alone. There are enough game-used cards out there already to meet demand. And maybe that would help the sagging prices and collectability of vintage jersey cards when collectors realize there is a finite amount.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Good, I hope the astronomical auction prices for full jerseys of legends like DiMaggio and Ruth prevent card companies from destroying them.
It's a shame that so many uniforms have been cut up and that so few remain, relatively speaking.

I understand the argument that jersey cards allow the common collector the chance to own a piece of history. I used to think game-used cards were awesome. But it's just gone too far.

The few remaining legends' full jerseys should be left alone. There are enough game-used cards out there already to meet demand. And maybe that would help the sagging prices and collectability of vintage jersey cards when collectors realize there is a finite amount.

I definitely think there needs to be a balance and am inclined to agree, that enough has been cut up (for many vintage players) that what is left should be left intact. The increase in price may accomplish that...

 

[Juan Gris]

For example, a Joe DiMaggio jersey just sold in a Goldin auction for $169,400. Assuming that each jersey makes roughly 2000 cards, that would be about $85 per card just for the cost of the materials. (It would be a bit less because there would be a bunch of patch cards which would fetch major premiums.)

I understand you using this jersey as an illustrate a point but this wasn't just any DiMaggio jersey but a photo-matched 1942 home jersey. Here are some details for those interested:

WEST BERLIN, NJ – JAN. 8, 2015 – The only known and authenticated Joe DiMaggio jersey from the 1942 Wartime season is expected to set a record price when it hits the auction block in the Goldin Auctions 2015 Winter Auction scheduled for January 12, through February 7, 2015 at www.GoldinAuctions.com.

The jersey is historically significant for many reasons. It would be the last jersey “The Yankee Clipper” would wear before he enlisted in the U.S Army from 1943-45 to serve his country during World War II.
“We are thrilled to offer this new find to collectors for the first time,” said Ken Goldin, Founder of Goldin Auctions. “It’s not only incredible that this jersey is being offered for public sale for the first time ever after all of these years, but it’s a minor miracle that any jersey, let alone a DiMaggio jersey, survived from the 1942 season as Wartime rationing severely restricted sports supplies and uniforms were recycled even more frequently than during the depression years.”
In 1941 Joe DiMaggio was coming off the most historic season of his career, having won the Most Valuable Player award and hit in his record 56 consecutive games, capped off by a World Series victory over the Brooklyn Dodgers. He followed that up with a fine performance in 1942 hitting 21 home runs with 114 RBI and led the Yankees to another World Series appearance. When he took off this jersey for the last time in 1942 it would be four years until #5 was worn again, when Joltin’ Joe made his return from the war in 1946.
The front of the classic home pinstripe jersey features the timeless intertwined "NY" in navy felt. The buttons are deemed to be the original ones and are still firmly affixed to the jersey. The Spalding label is sewn inside the collar along with a size "44" strip tag. "Joe DiMaggio" is chain stitched in black on a white strip tag sewn below the size. A faded "Joe DiMaggio" signature is just below that. The left sleeve features a patriotic shield patch with three stars on a navy blue field above the word "HEALTH". This patch was worn during the 1942 season by all players as part of the nation-wide "Hale America" program to promote physical fitness. To further date the jersey, the year "42" is chain stitched in navy blue on the inside rear tail of the jersey. The back has DiMaggio's famed number "5" in navy blue felt.

 

[Codasco07]

What makes you think card companies aren't buying GU cards with the intention of reusing them?

 

[MisterT]

What makes you think card companies aren't buying GU cards with the intention of reusing them?

I was thinking the exact same thing. If they can buy the items off the secondary market and re-use them (to drive consumer demand), they will be all over that. We already see Leaf and others doing exactly that.

 

[Topnotchsy]

A comment in another post reminded me of this thread...

What makes you think card companies aren't buying GU cards with the intention of reusing them?

Have you seen anything to indicate this might be happening? If for example there was a set from Leaf that had 5-10 jersey/pants cards of guys like Ruth, Mathewson, Gehrig etc I would definitely assume this was happening, but I have not noticed anything to this point.

 

[RStadlerASU22]

A comment in another post reminded me of this thread...



Have you seen anything to indicate this might be happening? If for example there was a set from Leaf that had 5-10 jersey/pants cards of guys like Ruth, Mathewson, Gehrig etc I would definitely assume this was happening, but I have not noticed anything to this point.

I think they were redding to "Best of Baseball" type things where the exact card was being reused in a product , not reused how I think you mean where they take the patch out and put it in a new card.

Or I could be totally off....
Ryan

 

[pujolsthomefan33]

Top,

yes, I know 2 big time dealers at the 2001 and 2003 national that were buying secondary market cards for upper deck....some of my cards were purchased and I was told it was for a buyback promotion. I never saw the cards again and some were tough hof game used. Do I have proof they were used again, no, I don't......but it is a very distinct possibility.


we also all know a lot of fake memorabilia was purchased by the card companies


and after the thread on the Schmidt barrel replacement, topps may or may not be buying graded secondary market cards or having some graded themselves....


so yes yes in the end as the prices go up, I would not be shocked to learn of card companies doing this, I assume they probably already are......