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death2redemptions
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Okay guys, we did something like this last year and considering the fact there is only a week left of baseball, I don't think it would be too early to make our predictions. I suppose some players could have a really hot or cold final week that could shake things up but you could just assume the season is over if you'd like. I'm going to post my top 3 predictions for each major award but you can go ahead and just post your top pick if you'd like. I'm going to make my predictions based on who I think deserves it, not what I think the voters will pick but you can do it the other way around if you were ever so inclined.
NL MVP
1. Christian Yelich
2. Matt Carpenter
3. Javier Baez or Freddie Freeman
He leads the league in batting average, slugging% & OPS, he's 2nd in runs scored & he put together a 20/20 season with 32 HR & 21 SB so while Carpenter may lead the league in home runs and is right behind Yelich in runs scored I perceive Yelich to be the more complete player. Both are still deserving. After those two players it's just a crap shoot of players like Baez, Arenado (his splits were too extreme for me to consider him the MVP), Freeman & Goldschmidt (if he were on a contending team he'd get more consideration).
AL MVP
1. Mookie Betts
2. Mike Trout
3. J.D. Martinez
This was a tough one because both Trout & Mookie put up such phenomenal numbers this season that you'd hate to have to put one in 2nd place. In all likelihood Trout will finish with his 3rd 10+ bWAR season (currently 9.9) while Mookie leads all of baseball with a 10.7 bWAR & is just one stolen base shy of a 30/30 season. The last time there has ever been two players with a 10 bWAR in the same season was over 15 years (2002 - Barry Bonds/Randy Johnson) back in the steroid-era where numbers were inflated. So again, very tough choice. However, the reason I went with Mookie is sort of obvious....he's on a contending team.
NL Cy Young
1. Jacob deGrom
2. Max Scherzer
3. Aaron Nola
Anyone who knows me knows that I don't give a crap about wins & losses. To me they are meaningless stats & while I understand some voters still believe in them I think what Jacob deGrom has done is too incredible to discredit him simply because of his 9-9 record. He leads the league in the three most important (IMO) categories: ERA, FIP & *fWAR while second in WHIP, innings pitched & strikeouts. You may have noticed I used fWAR versus bWAR. The reason for this is because fWAR is FIP based, not ERA based and more telling of a pitchers true talent level while measuring it with as little luck as possible. ERA in itself is a luck-based stat (sequencing). This is not to say FIP is the perfect stat because it's not and I still think ERA is an important stat but I'm getting off topic here so I'll shut up. Scherzer and Nola were both worthy follow-ups but I ultimately went with Scherzer due to his insane strikeout numbers & leading the league in WHIP, innings pitched & wins (although wins played no role in my decision)
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Blake Snell
3. Gerrit Cole or Corey Kluber
Okay, I know many will disagree with my pick of JV over Snell and not just because of those meaningless win totals of his but also because of that shinning sub-2 ERA. The only drawback of Snell is that he's only put up 175 IP this season and only once has an AL pitcher ever won the Cy Young award with less than 200 IP. Essentially Verlander has thrown 38 IP more than Snell which is relatively significant. While Snell has that sizeable lead in ERA over Verlander, advanced metrics go in Verlander's favor, as he beats him in FIP, xFIP & more importantly, SIERA in which he leads all of baseball in. Among qualifying pitchers, Verlander leads the league in fWAR (6.4) & while getting back on topic with traditional stats, he also leads the league in strikeouts (280) & WHIP (0.91). Regardless, I still think Snell had a spectacular (and unexpected) 2018 season and you really couldn't go wrong with him winning it either. You may notice Chris Sale missing who put up some eye-popping numbers, however he doesn't have the innings pitched to qualify as a league leader in any of them & I simply couldn't justify giving the Cy Young award to a starter with 150 something IP. Trevor Bauer was another name left out due to similar reasons.
NL ROY
1. Ronald Acuna
2. Juan Soto
3. Walker Buehler
It's been an insane ride following the Acuna vs. Soto race and I think in the end Acuna gets the edge due to his speed/power combo of 26 HR & 15 SB (leads Soto in both stats) while breaking a lot of rookie & under 21 season records along the way. The two rookies have similar batting average, OPS & runs scored stats with almost identical number of at-bats.
AL ROY
1a. Shoehei Ohtani
1b. Miguel Andujar
3. Gleyber Torres
Honestly, I'm a little torn between Ohtani & Andujar although just very recently I've been starting to lean towards Ohtani so while both are listed as #1...I put Ohtani's name first
I left out Manager of the Year award because honestly, it's just not something I care about because it's so hard to quantify the value of a manager and what they've really done for a team. You'll generally notice that when a team who was not expected to contend, ends up contending the manager of that team wins the award 9 out of 10 times. But was the manager really the reason for this? I think they may have played a very small role but it's more due to the players. Just my opinion. Either way, feel free to post your MOY nominations if you feel like it.
NL MVP
1. Christian Yelich
2. Matt Carpenter
3. Javier Baez or Freddie Freeman
He leads the league in batting average, slugging% & OPS, he's 2nd in runs scored & he put together a 20/20 season with 32 HR & 21 SB so while Carpenter may lead the league in home runs and is right behind Yelich in runs scored I perceive Yelich to be the more complete player. Both are still deserving. After those two players it's just a crap shoot of players like Baez, Arenado (his splits were too extreme for me to consider him the MVP), Freeman & Goldschmidt (if he were on a contending team he'd get more consideration).
AL MVP
1. Mookie Betts
2. Mike Trout
3. J.D. Martinez
This was a tough one because both Trout & Mookie put up such phenomenal numbers this season that you'd hate to have to put one in 2nd place. In all likelihood Trout will finish with his 3rd 10+ bWAR season (currently 9.9) while Mookie leads all of baseball with a 10.7 bWAR & is just one stolen base shy of a 30/30 season. The last time there has ever been two players with a 10 bWAR in the same season was over 15 years (2002 - Barry Bonds/Randy Johnson) back in the steroid-era where numbers were inflated. So again, very tough choice. However, the reason I went with Mookie is sort of obvious....he's on a contending team.
NL Cy Young
1. Jacob deGrom
2. Max Scherzer
3. Aaron Nola
Anyone who knows me knows that I don't give a crap about wins & losses. To me they are meaningless stats & while I understand some voters still believe in them I think what Jacob deGrom has done is too incredible to discredit him simply because of his 9-9 record. He leads the league in the three most important (IMO) categories: ERA, FIP & *fWAR while second in WHIP, innings pitched & strikeouts. You may have noticed I used fWAR versus bWAR. The reason for this is because fWAR is FIP based, not ERA based and more telling of a pitchers true talent level while measuring it with as little luck as possible. ERA in itself is a luck-based stat (sequencing). This is not to say FIP is the perfect stat because it's not and I still think ERA is an important stat but I'm getting off topic here so I'll shut up. Scherzer and Nola were both worthy follow-ups but I ultimately went with Scherzer due to his insane strikeout numbers & leading the league in WHIP, innings pitched & wins (although wins played no role in my decision)
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Blake Snell
3. Gerrit Cole or Corey Kluber
Okay, I know many will disagree with my pick of JV over Snell and not just because of those meaningless win totals of his but also because of that shinning sub-2 ERA. The only drawback of Snell is that he's only put up 175 IP this season and only once has an AL pitcher ever won the Cy Young award with less than 200 IP. Essentially Verlander has thrown 38 IP more than Snell which is relatively significant. While Snell has that sizeable lead in ERA over Verlander, advanced metrics go in Verlander's favor, as he beats him in FIP, xFIP & more importantly, SIERA in which he leads all of baseball in. Among qualifying pitchers, Verlander leads the league in fWAR (6.4) & while getting back on topic with traditional stats, he also leads the league in strikeouts (280) & WHIP (0.91). Regardless, I still think Snell had a spectacular (and unexpected) 2018 season and you really couldn't go wrong with him winning it either. You may notice Chris Sale missing who put up some eye-popping numbers, however he doesn't have the innings pitched to qualify as a league leader in any of them & I simply couldn't justify giving the Cy Young award to a starter with 150 something IP. Trevor Bauer was another name left out due to similar reasons.
NL ROY
1. Ronald Acuna
2. Juan Soto
3. Walker Buehler
It's been an insane ride following the Acuna vs. Soto race and I think in the end Acuna gets the edge due to his speed/power combo of 26 HR & 15 SB (leads Soto in both stats) while breaking a lot of rookie & under 21 season records along the way. The two rookies have similar batting average, OPS & runs scored stats with almost identical number of at-bats.
AL ROY
1a. Shoehei Ohtani
1b. Miguel Andujar
3. Gleyber Torres
Honestly, I'm a little torn between Ohtani & Andujar although just very recently I've been starting to lean towards Ohtani so while both are listed as #1...I put Ohtani's name first
I left out Manager of the Year award because honestly, it's just not something I care about because it's so hard to quantify the value of a manager and what they've really done for a team. You'll generally notice that when a team who was not expected to contend, ends up contending the manager of that team wins the award 9 out of 10 times. But was the manager really the reason for this? I think they may have played a very small role but it's more due to the players. Just my opinion. Either way, feel free to post your MOY nominations if you feel like it.