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I did not agree with the move the Astros pulled but their doctors were correct in their evaluation. Who was their other pick they could not sign because of the deal with Aiken?
Jacob Nix, who is lights out thus far this year.
I never really understood how it all played out. Why could they not sign Nix, even after not agreeing to terms with Aiken? I know somewhere in the mix, the Astros would have lost two first round picks.
Every team gets a bonus pool to spend in the draft(a budget.) If they go over the bonus pool they pay overages and if they go over by a certain amount they can lose future draft pick. Every teams pool is different because it is determined on their draft position, the higher you draft and the more picks you have the more money you are allowed to spend in order to sign them. However if you do not sign the player, you lose the ability to spend the money from your pool. When the Astros were unable to get Aiken to sign for the reduced amount, their draft pool was then significantly reduced because the pool no longer consisted of them signing the first overall pick. The money they promised to Nix they were unable to give him, because if they were able to honor that they would go over their draft pool and lose their draft pick the following year. The only way they could give the money they promised to Nix was if they signed Aiken.
Obviously there is a lot made of the Astros situation, and most people seem to think they should feel better about themselves today because they were "right." But at the end of the day they still offered him 5 million dollars despite the fact that they deemed that he had an elbow that would eventually require surgery. After all, most elbows now days require tommy john surgery anyway.
Much like Giolito a couple years ago I wouldn't be surprised if Aiken is still taken in the first round of the draft this year, despite the fact that he is inured.