2011 Bowman Draft Picks Hobby Wrapper Odds

[ThoseBackPages]

5,000 cases? thats it?

 

[SeattleSports]

Average case will have

7.8 base autos
2.85 refractor autos
.85 blue autos (1 per 1.2 cases)
.3 gold autos (or 1 per 3.3 cases)
.14 orange autos (or 1 per 7 cases)

.4 base USA autos (1 per 2.5 cases)
.7 refractor USA autos (1 per 1.4 cases)
.2 gold USA autos (1 per 5 cases)
.1 orange USA autos (1 per 10 cases)

.28 AFLAC autos (1 per 3.5 cases)

And there are 5,416 cases to be exact. And we can also calculate how many Harper's were pulled for replacements per to get a better understanding what type of print run is typically held back. The Harper relic autos are hobby exclusive and we can assume that the Harper green /5 was NOT held back and all 5 are in circulation. The odds of the Harper green are 1:312,000 packs, so assuming 5 are in circulation thats 1,560,000 packs or 5416 cases. Based off the 1,560,000 packs, the odds for gold /25 relic autos and /50 blue relic autos for Harper don't line up when using the odds provided by topps based off print run. As the odds for the / 25 gold is 1:65,000 or 1,625,000 packs. BUT, if only 24 of the Harpers are included in packs and 1 was held back for replacement, then a print run of 24 x the pack odds of 1:65,000, we get 1,560,000 packs again. 48 of the 50 blue relic autos /50 were included as the odds are 1:32,500 packs which 48x32,500= 1,560,000 packs.

This is really interesting to me as this is the first time I've ever seen evidence that the pack odds actually represent the cards included in the circulation and not the % of cards that were held back for replacement.

Looking at some of the other #'s are interesting on what is included in hobby vs retail/replacement

22 of the 25 orange refractors of the average chrome prospect/rookie are in HOBBY
44 of the 50 gold refractors of the average chrome prospect/rookie are in HOBBY
And finally the super/canary only has 210 of the 220 cards in circulation with 10 held back to replace other supers.

And finally based off the AFLAC's, the print run should be around /215 if all players are serial #'ed the same.

 

[vwnut13]

And finally the super/canary only has 210 of the 220 cards in circulation with 10 held back to replace other supers.

So if I pull a bad Super, I should send it in and see if I can get a better one?

 

[SeattleSports]

This should be the most important # right here -
2008: 3,500 cases - 17 autos
2011: 5,500 cases - 34 autos

2008 had an amazing class and they made 3,500 cases for 17 autos in the set. To have the same odds of that amazing set, the cases produced for 34 autos would have to be approximately 7,000 cases. With less cases, the odds in comparison to 2008 for pulling colored autos significantly increases. Couple that with one of the best and deepest classes ever (not top heavy), then it should make for one of the best sets ever as well. If 2008 was as good as it was with a quality set and much tougher odds of color autos, 2011 should be significantly better if the draft class performs up to its hype.

If 2008 bowman draft with those odds and draft class is able to hit $125-145 a box, then the initial worry about overproduction should subside as 2011 BDP should have great short term and long term value.

 

[Jaypers]

Got some bad news to report, from the same source as the odds.

I've been informed the AFLAC autos are 1) not serialized, 2) do not have any authentication sticker, and 3) do not say "Topps Certified Autograph Issue" on them.

I'll tweet Topps on Monday and see if they can provide the print runs for each of the 7 players, but somehow I doubt they'll release those figures.

Don't kill the messenger, folks.

 

[mredsox89]

Got some bad news to report, from the same source as the odds.

I've been informed the AFLAC autos are 1) not serialized, 2) do not have any authentication sticker, and 3) do not say "Topps Certified Autograph Issue" on them.

I'll tweet Topps on Monday and see if they can provide the print runs for each of the 7 players, but somehow I doubt they'll release those figures.

Don't kill the messenger, folks.

So there is absolutely nothing to distinguish them from an IP auto? Guess it's good then that they're 1 in 3+ cases

 

[SeattleSports]

Got some bad news to report, from the same source as the odds.

I've been informed the AFLAC autos are 1) not serialized, 2) do not have any authentication sticker, and 3) do not say "Topps Certified Autograph Issue" on them.

I'll tweet Topps on Monday and see if they can provide the print runs for each of the 7 players, but somehow I doubt they'll release those figures.

Don't kill the messenger, folks.

That's extremely hard to imagine... wow. It would kill the value as half will be fakes.

 

[SeattleSports]

We can also figure out the % of boxes that will have color autos, (blue or higher)
So include /1, /4, /5, /10, /25, /50, /150 = 245. 245 x 34 = 8,330 boxes w/ at least a blue refractor prospect auto. With all of the odds lining up to 5,416 cases, that's 64,992 boxes. So 8,330 of the 64,992 would have at least a blue refractor auto or 1 in 7.8 boxes.

If you want to add USA autos refractors as well and assuming that your color auto box will NOT also have a color auto USA (that's not the case 100% of the time obviously), here are the #'s. /99, /50, /25, /10, /5, /4, /1 = 194 with 20 players each, that's an additional 3,880 boxes.

So 12,210 of 64,992 boxes (or 1 in 5.32 boxes) would have a blue refractor auto of a prospect or USA or better. Obviously that's not 100% accurate though as you could get a blue refractor auto of a prospect and blue refractor USA auto, but it's not likely. You can also add in that there are approximately 1,505 AFLAC autos, so that would increase your # of 'good hits'.

And for added measure, if you want to include refractor autos as 'color autos' above, that's an additional 17,000 autos. Add that to the 8,330 blue or higher and that's 25,330 boxes of the 64,992 would have a refractor auto or better. And if you added the refractor USA autos as well, that's an additional 3,980 refractor autos to add. So your odds of pulling a refractor auto of a USA or prospect (and again, you could possibly pull a color auto and a USA color auto so the #'s arent exact) are 33,190 of 64,992 boxes or 1 in 1.96 boxes.

 

[Jaypers]

Seattlesports = the Steven Hawking of FCB.

 

[mwashuc06]

Got some bad news to report, from the same source as the odds.

I've been informed the AFLAC autos are 1) not serialized, 2) do not have any authentication sticker, and 3) do not say "Topps Certified Autograph Issue" on them.

I'll tweet Topps on Monday and see if they can provide the print runs for each of the 7 players, but somehow I doubt they'll release those figures.

Don't kill the messenger, folks.

Gonna be a lot of fakes, way to go Topps ::facepalm::

 

[Jaypers]

If you recall, Topps gave out un-autographed Perfect-Game cards at the game this summer, but they all said "Topps Certified Autograph Issue" on the fronts.

They just can't seem to get it right.

 

[P_Manning 18]

If you recall, Topps gave out un-autographed Perfect-Game cards at the game this summer, but they all said "Topps Certified Autograph Issue" on the fronts.

They just can't seem to get it right.

Thats why I like Leaf.

 

[Jaypers]

The hits just keep on coming. BrentandBecca reports that Starling and Harper autos are redemptions.

 

[George_Calfas]

if the Harper Auto Relic Red 1/1 - 1:1,560,000, and you take that number an divide it by 288 packs, since it is a 1/1, i get 4,013 cases produced unless im doing something wrong

I thought it was announced that Harper was retail and hobby. maybe not for a red though.

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION

BRYCE HARPER AUTOGRAPH RELIC CARDS - Hobby Exclusive!
The best souvenir from the 2011 MLB Futures Game - sensation Bryce Harper rainbow foil cards featuring an autograph and a Futures Game jersey relic numbered to 69.
Paralleled in the following versions:
- Red: ONE OF ONE
- Green: Numbered to 5
- Gold: Numbered to 25
- Blue: Numbered to 50

so if this is correct i get only 4,013 cases made by taking the 1/1 and dividing the odds by 288 packs per case, let me know

What are you trying to do with that math? 1560000 / 288 = 5416 not 4,013. Every number so far proves out a 5,400 - 5,600 cases.

Cant use the Harper 1/1 alone (odds of 1,560,000) to calculate the print run.........Topps could have made 3,119,999 packs and still kept to these odds.

 

[miguelcabrera]

If you recall, Topps gave out un-autographed Perfect-Game cards at the game this summer, but they all said "Topps Certified Autograph Issue" on the fronts.

They just can't seem to get it right.

Thats why I like Leaf.

this

 

[SeattleSports]

Cant use the Harper 1/1 alone (odds of 1,560,000) to calculate the print run.........Topps could have made 3,119,999 packs and still kept to these odds.

What does that even mean?

 

[BowmanChromeAddict]

Cant use the Harper 1/1 alone (odds of 1,560,000) to calculate the print run.........Topps could have made 3,119,999 packs and still kept to these odds.

What does that even mean?

Seriously. And I didn't just use the Harper 1/1. I used the Superfractor Autos, Press Plate Autos and everything supports 5400 to 5600 cases.

 

[George_Calfas]

Cant use the Harper 1/1 alone (odds of 1,560,000) to calculate the print run.........Topps could have made 3,119,999 packs and still kept to these odds.

What does that even mean?

Seriously. And I didn't just use the Harper 1/1. I used the Superfractor Autos, Press Plate Autos and everything supports 5400 to 5600 cases.

Not say that you figured it out this way; I was stating that you cant use one insert alone to figure out the print run. My comment is base upon the first comment in the quoted thread from Ndepaul99.

 

[padremurph]

The hits just keep on coming. BrentandBecca reports that Starling and Harper autos are redemptions.

That's a bummer.

 

[Chrisdg19006]

Ouch! If its true that the Perfect Game (formerly AFLAC) autos are not stamped, case prices should drop. As someone else noted, the non-auto cards distributed at the game have "Topps Certified Autograph Issue" written on them.