2013 Bowman Draft auto Price Pontifications

[marterburn]

I used leaf and USA to an extent where I could, but here's my guesses for the base autos. I think I've done this for a few years, and for me, it's fun to see how far off I am when everything shakes out. Let's call these prices 'week after release' guesses to the nearest dollar, shipping included:

Aaron Blair 4
Andrew Church 4
Aaron Judge 15
Andrew Knapp 4
Austin Meadows 35
Braden Shipley 4
Blake Taylor 6
Chris Anderson 6
Clint Frazier 35
Colin Moran 15
Chance Sisco 6
Cord Sandberg 4
D.J. Peterson 20
Dustin Peterson 6
Dominic Smith 25
Eric Jagielo 30
Hunter Dozier 15
Hunter Green 4
Hunter Harvey 10
Hunter Renfroe 8
Ian Clarkin 6
J.P. Crawford 12
Jonathon Crawford 4
Jon Denney 10
Jonathan Gray 25
Josh Hart 8
Justin Williams 10
Kevin Franklin 6
Kohl Stewart 15
Kevin Ziomek 4
Marco Gonzales 6
Michael Lorenzen 8
Nick Ciuffo 6
Oscar Mercado 6
Phil Ervin 12
Ryan Eades 4
Ryder Jones 6
Robert Kaminsky 6
Reese McGuire 8
Ryan McMahon 10
Riley Unroe 4
Tim Anderson 4
Trey Ball 20
Travis Demeritte 4
Tyler Danish 6
Trevor Williams 6
Tom Windle 6

I might have too many .99 + shipping (that's generally what $4 means), and I'm probably a bit bullish on the mid-level prices, but there my guesses be.

 

[P_Manning 18]

So we will need to pull 5-7 of those per box to break even?

 

[D-Lite]

Jagielo at $30 seems high, although I get he's the Yank's first 1st rounder.

 

[marterburn]

Jagielo at $30 seems high, although I get he's the Yank's first 1st rounder.

I really agree its high based on draft position and what we've seen of him, but I even brought it down a bit from where it would 'project' based on Leaf sales.

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[longbomberz]

From what I've read, it seems Hunter Harvey would be a steal at $10 dlvd.

 

[beefycheddar]

I would think Moran should be a higher end prospect. Probably 20-25 range or he is a great investment.

 

[padremurph]

I think Frazier and Meadows will be around $45 since they're the headliners.

 

[matfanofold]

I think Frazier and Meadows will be around $45 since they're the headliners.

This, and perhaps a bit more at first.

 

[marterburn]

This, and perhaps a bit more at first.

If that's the case...and I'm not saying it won't be...it's because of being that product headliner of the bowman name, and not a appropriate step-out from leaf prices.

As I alluded to previously, I nerfed Jagielo for the same reason.

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[marterburn]

From what I've read, it seems Hunter Harvey would be a steal at $10 dlvd.

I'll stand pat on my prediction, but you're right and I'm likely low.

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[phillyfan0417]

Cord Sandberg is getting 30+ since people are guessing he's an SP

 

[padremurph]

Surprised some are selling low. I think Kohl Stewart and Dom Smith are steals right now.

 

[D-Lite]

Jagielo at $30 seems high, although I get he's the Yank's first 1st rounder.

Has been around $15.
Clarkin ~$8-9
Judge ~$17

 

[padremurph]

Has been around $15.
Clarkin ~$8-9
Judge ~$17

Katoh has been a huge surprise to me. He's a limited 2b but he's getting crazy money.

 

[shayscards79]

I don't see Frazier or Meadows dropping below $40 any time soon.

 

[marterburn]

I'm at work so I don't have my handwritten spreadsheet, but it's something like:

1a Meadows
1b Frazier
big drop
3 Gray
4 Smith
5 Cluster of 7 guys

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[D-Lite]

Katoh has been a huge surprise to me. He's a limited 2b but he's getting crazy money.

Yeah, especially for non-auto. He had a nice debut with big numbers and power that surprised a lot of people.

EDIT: should also say that a lot of it probably has to do with the Japanese bidding on him as well. That's not a small effect.

 

[gmsieb]

Price estimate on a dozier red auto???

 

[marterburn]

Really hard to say with reds and supers, because collectors of certain players have deeper pockets than others. But a Reese McGuire went for 610, and his base sell similarly.


Meanwhile, still no tracking info on my pre-bought case....


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[Bill Menard]

Wow - hard to believe there isn't a "big gun" base auto to start. $40-45 seems low for the big ticket auto.