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KLaw wrote about Rodon (and Turner) after seeing them in a rain-shortned game last night. Rodon's line: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 5 K.
North Carolina State starter Carlos Rodon came into the spring as the consensus No. 1 overall prospect in the draft class, but his first six starts were a tick below those high expectations. As a result, I moved him down to No. 3 on my updated rankings last week behind high school lefty Brady Aiken and prep righty Tyler Kolek. Rodon threw on Friday night at home against Miami (FL) with a lot of cross-checkers and scouting directors from teams drafting outside of the top five. Originally they said they hadn't planned to scout him, but this changed course because he's no longer a lock to go that high. I don't think Friday's effort helped or hurt him, as the game was suspended due to weather in the sixth inning.
Rodon's delivery has less power to it than last summer and is generally less clean, just in subtle ways. He's a little stiffer at release, more upright, and he's got some more head violence than he had previously. I might understand all of that if he were throwing harder as a result of the increased effort, but while he hit 96 for me last summer, he topped out at 94 on Friday night and has been 90-94 or a tick less all season. His slider isn't just his best pitch -- it's one of the best sliders I've ever seen, 87-90 mph and seemingly impossible to hit even when the hitter knows it's coming. Even when the pitch backed up on him -- maybe a half-dozen times, at most -- it could still break just enough for him to get away with the mistake. It might not have been as good as it was last summer, but if that outing against Cuba in July was a grade-80 slider, Friday night's version was at least a 70.
Rodon still doesn't command his fastball as well as he'd need to for him to project as a No. 1 starter, but he has the legitimate out pitch of an ace. His slider is so sharp that it could miss bats on its own but plays up even more because it's only a few mph below his fastball. He's physically maxed out, though athletic for his build, and should be able to handle some minor adjustments to his delivery. With that said, I doubt anyone can eliminate the slight violence in it, which might diminish his stuff anyway.
Rodon's draft stock comes down to how much teams want to bank on that one pitch, which might in and of itself make him an above-average starter in the big leagues, given the attrition rates of pitchers who throw that many sliders. Other questions are based around Rodon's repertoire and delivery.
• I also ended up with a brief look at Trea Turner for more than a few stray observations. He's a 60 runner now, not as fast as he was as a freshman. He still has a major bat-wrap, with a long swing that has him coming down at the ball from his loaded position. And while his arm looks to be more than enough for shortstop, he tried to showboat the one hard play he got, attempting to backhand a hard groundball to his right rather than getting his body in front of it. It wasn't a great night for him, with two groundouts -- one into a double play after NC State decided to hand Miami an out by bunting their No. 2 hitter -- with identical run times to first.
North Carolina State starter Carlos Rodon came into the spring as the consensus No. 1 overall prospect in the draft class, but his first six starts were a tick below those high expectations. As a result, I moved him down to No. 3 on my updated rankings last week behind high school lefty Brady Aiken and prep righty Tyler Kolek. Rodon threw on Friday night at home against Miami (FL) with a lot of cross-checkers and scouting directors from teams drafting outside of the top five. Originally they said they hadn't planned to scout him, but this changed course because he's no longer a lock to go that high. I don't think Friday's effort helped or hurt him, as the game was suspended due to weather in the sixth inning.
Rodon's delivery has less power to it than last summer and is generally less clean, just in subtle ways. He's a little stiffer at release, more upright, and he's got some more head violence than he had previously. I might understand all of that if he were throwing harder as a result of the increased effort, but while he hit 96 for me last summer, he topped out at 94 on Friday night and has been 90-94 or a tick less all season. His slider isn't just his best pitch -- it's one of the best sliders I've ever seen, 87-90 mph and seemingly impossible to hit even when the hitter knows it's coming. Even when the pitch backed up on him -- maybe a half-dozen times, at most -- it could still break just enough for him to get away with the mistake. It might not have been as good as it was last summer, but if that outing against Cuba in July was a grade-80 slider, Friday night's version was at least a 70.
Rodon still doesn't command his fastball as well as he'd need to for him to project as a No. 1 starter, but he has the legitimate out pitch of an ace. His slider is so sharp that it could miss bats on its own but plays up even more because it's only a few mph below his fastball. He's physically maxed out, though athletic for his build, and should be able to handle some minor adjustments to his delivery. With that said, I doubt anyone can eliminate the slight violence in it, which might diminish his stuff anyway.
Rodon's draft stock comes down to how much teams want to bank on that one pitch, which might in and of itself make him an above-average starter in the big leagues, given the attrition rates of pitchers who throw that many sliders. Other questions are based around Rodon's repertoire and delivery.
• I also ended up with a brief look at Trea Turner for more than a few stray observations. He's a 60 runner now, not as fast as he was as a freshman. He still has a major bat-wrap, with a long swing that has him coming down at the ball from his loaded position. And while his arm looks to be more than enough for shortstop, he tried to showboat the one hard play he got, attempting to backhand a hard groundball to his right rather than getting his body in front of it. It wasn't a great night for him, with two groundouts -- one into a double play after NC State decided to hand Miami an out by bunting their No. 2 hitter -- with identical run times to first.
