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2021 HoF Prediction Bonanza Contest - FINAL RESULTS

cjedmonton

Well-known member
Sep 20, 2009
1,732
Happy 2021, FCBers!

Here's another contest for you all to whet your baseball appetite.

***THE DEADLINE FOR SUBMITTING YOUR ENTRY IS JANUARY 23rd.***

So long as your entry has a Jan 23rd timestamp, you're in.

Please carefully read the details below and let me know if you have any questions.


WHAT'S THIS ALL ABOUT?

Unlike other HoF prediction contests, this one doesn't merely ask you to identify who will make the Hall. Rather, you are asked to predict the entire ballot in order of votes received. The 2021 ballot has 25 players; 14 returning and 11 newcomers. So yes, you will be arranging them all in order from most to fewest ballots (with a separate list of everyone you think will receive 0 votes).


YOU'RE KIDDING, RIGHT?

I never kid about Hall of Fame ballots.


OKAY, HOW DO I ENTER?

Here's the ballot

Do as much (or as little) research as you want, but your entry must include all 25 players and be sorted in the order you think will have the most to the fewest votes (minimum 1 vote).

As mentioned above, you must also identify all players you think will receive zero votes.

So, your entry will have 2 lists:

A. One list for all players you think will receive at least vote, sorted from highest to lowest
B. One list for all players you think will receive zero votes (obviously no need to rank these guys)

Submit your entry in this thread before the deadline.

NO EDITING WHATSOEVER!! ANY THAT HAVE BEEN EDITED WILL BE DISQUALIFIED.

ONE ENTRY PER PERSON.



TELL ME MORE ABOUT SCORING...THE MOST CORRECT GUESSES WINS?


Of course not...if you've ever entered one of my contests, you'll know that it's rarely straightforward.

For this game, each correct entry will earn you a reverse weighted number of points.

This will place a heavier emphasis on correctly guessing the bottom portion of the ballot rather than the frontrunners.

Here's the formula for a correct guess:

100 - (percent of ballots a player appeared on). The percentage figure is dropped so you're just left with a number.

ie: 67.3% = 67.3

Let's use last year's inductees as an example.

Derek Jeter appeared on 99.7% of the ballots, so had you correctly predicted that he would have received the most votes (who wouldn't), you would have only earned 0.3 points (100 - 99.7).

Let's say you also correctly predicted that Larry Walker would have received the 2nd most votes. He did (76.6% of the ballots), so you would have earned 23.4 points for your efforts (100 - 76.6).

But, if you had predicted that Walker would come in 3rd place, you would not have received any points.

To earn points for any player, you must correctly predict their order of finish.

You do not have to identify the actual rank, it is inferred by their place on your list.

ie: you don't have to say Barry Bonds 3rd place. Simply have him listed 3rd in your entry.

As you might have guessed by now, each player you correctly predict receiving zero votes will be worth 100 points (100 - 0).


Don't worry, ties count in your favor.

ie: if you have Mark Buehrle in 14th place, but he is tied for 11th and the next non-tied position is 16th, your prediction would count (Buehrle is part of the group that takes 11th-15th place).

As far as ties between contestants, it will be broken in favor of who submitted their entry first.


I THINK I GET IT. ARE THERE ANY PRIZES, OR IS THIS ALL JUST FOR SMILES AND GRINS?

Of course there are prizes, and some pretty nice ones too....if you're good/lucky enough.

1st Place: The contestant earning the highest number of cumulative points earns a $50 Paypal gift UNLESS they meet one of the bonus level criteria below, in which case they will earn that prize instead.
2nd Place: $25 Paypal gift
3rd Place: $10 Paypal gift

BONUS (Level 1): If the overall winner correctly predicts at least 20 players (list A and list B), they will win a desirable and historically significant sealed factory set.
2F03812D-2DEB-4129-91F8-DC062780683F.jpeg

BONUS (Level 2): If the overall winner correctly predicts at least 21 players (list A and list B), they will win a Topps Heritage Real One certified on-card red ink autograph of an all-time great player (not just a HoF caliber player).
0F43C9B7-1E02-40AD-BA47-37DB1C0A61C9.jpeg

BONUS (Level 3): If the overall winner correctly predicts at least 23 players (list A and list B), they will win a Topps certified on-card multi player autograph of former MVPs, including one of an all-time great player (not just a HoF caliber player).
082A65E3-D3A8-4C52-8367-8EF1F78F1278.jpeg

BONUS (Level 4): If the overall winner correctly predicts all 25 players (list A and list B), they will win all three prizes shown in bonus levels 1-3.

Okay, I think that covers it! Again, any questions, just ask.

Good luck to all
 
Last edited:

mrmopar

Member
Jan 19, 2010
4,054
Damn, given the disdain for the PED guys (although it seems to have softened a bit) and the weak incoming 1st timers, this COULD easily be a year where nobody gets the call. On the flip side, this could be the best shot any of the PED guys have of overcoming the stigma and finally getting that call.

This stands to be a fun contest, as usual. You never know what some of these voters will think. Last year, Josh Beckett & Heath Bell got 0, but Brad Penny and JJ Putz got 1. Even the 0 votes are not a lock decision in some cases!

I will give it a shot for sure, thanks for another cool contest.

Schilling
Clemens
Bonds
Vizquel
Rolen
Wagner
Sheffield
Helton
Kent
M. Ramirez
A Jones
Pettitte
Hudson
Sosa
Buehrle
Abreu
Hunter

Zero votes
Haren
Zito
A Ramirez
Victorino
Burnett
Swisher
Hawkins
Cuddyer

I feel like Schilling gets in this year. If the anti-PED sentiment is still strong enough, Clemens and Bonds fail again, but they are so close and both on a very slight incline. Otherwise one or both may get the nod this year. Vizquel is a wild card. He is on a solid upward trajectory. He could very easily leap frog Clemens and Bonds in a weak class and join Schilling. I don't see any 1st ballot players coming close and only Buehrle and Hudson possibly getting enough to remain on the ballot.

Next year is Ortiz and Arod, then another really weak year...it should be interesting for sure.
 

deaconblues63

Well-known member
Oct 25, 2012
1,372
Vizquel
Schilling
Clemens
Bonds
Wagner
Rolen
Pettitte
Sheffield
Helton
Kent
M. Ramirez
A Jones
Hudson
Sosa
Buehrle
Abreu
Hunter

Zero votes

Haren
A Ramirez
Victorino
Burnett
Swisher
Hawkins
Cuddyer
Zito

Thank you.


Sent from my iPhone using Freedom Card Board
 

metallicalex777

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
13,794
Seattle, Wa
I’ll give it a shot, and thanks for the contest @cjedmonton ...unique and fun as usual!

Votes:
Schilling
Bonds
Clemens
Rolen
Pettitte
Wagner
Sheffield
Helton
Vizquel
Kent
M. Ramirez
Buehrle
A Jones
Sosa
Hudson
Zito
Haren

Zero votes:
Abreu
Hunter
A Ramirez
Victorino
Burnett
Swisher
Hawkins
Cuddyer
 

jeffv96masters

Well-known member
Aug 14, 2008
1,595
Votes:
Schilling
Bonds
Clemens
Rolen
Pettitte
Wagner
Sheffield
Helton
Vizquel
Kent
M. Ramirez
Buehrle
A Jones
Sosa
Hudson
Zito
Haren
Abreu
Hunter
A Ramirez


No votes
========
Victorino
Burnett
Swisher
Hawkins
Cuddyer
 

cjedmonton

Well-known member
Sep 20, 2009
1,732
Signup closed. Thanks to those who joined!

3 of you are guaranteed a prize!

Results posted Tuesday the 26th.

Bonus prizes added to the OP.

Good luck.

2021.jpg
 
Last edited:

mrmopar

Member
Jan 19, 2010
4,054
Good luck to all. Those are some amazing prizes. It will be tough to break into that bonus round, but if someone does, BAM!!

Thanks again to @cjedmonton for his generosity and contests that make you work/think, but are enjoyable as well!
 

Austin

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
5,683
Oahu, Hawaii
With about half of the ballots made public so far, Schilling has exactly 75% of the vote. Bonds and Clemens are close at 72%. But those numbers almost always drop when all votes are made public.


Curt Schilling75.0%
Barry Bonds72.2%
Roger Clemens71.7%
Scott Rolen62.2%
Todd Helton51.1%
Billy Wagner46.1%
Gary Sheffield46.7%
Andruw Jones41.1%
Omar Vizquel41.1%
Manny Ramirez33.9%
Jeff Kent32.2%
Sammy Sosa22.2%
Andy Pettitte16.1%
Bobby Abreu12.2%
Mark Buehrle7.8%
Torii Hunter5.0%
Tim Hudson3.9%
Aramis Ramirez0.6%
Shane Victorino0.0%
A.J. Burnett0.0%
Barry Zito0.0%
Nick Swisher0.0%
Dan Haren0.0%
Michael Cuddyer0.0%
LaTroy Hawkins0.6%
 

cjedmonton

Well-known member
Sep 20, 2009
1,732
The results are in.

In 4th place with 8 correct guesses and 673.8 points: @mrmopar
In 3rd place with 11 correct and 745.6 points: @jeffv96masters
In 2nd place with 11 correct and 745.6 points: @metallicalex777 (breaks the tie by submitting his entry first)
In 1st place with 10 correct and 828.5 points: @deaconblues63

If you are in the top 3, please send me a PM with your Paypal address.

Thanks for playing!

2021%20Results.jpg
 

metallicalex777

Super Moderator
Aug 7, 2008
13,794
Seattle, Wa
Thank you @cjedmonton These are always neat and unique ways of staying focused on some baseball during regular season downtime :)

@mrmopar Your post helped get me started, so thanks for sharing your insights. Send me a PM and I'd like to find a Dodgers card from my collection or something you might like for your ongoing collection, you are a winner in my book with choosing to share ;)
 

jeffv96masters

Well-known member
Aug 14, 2008
1,595
next time I'll read the rules instead of copy and paste :unsure: after seeing "closing the contest from work and using my phoen to guess. Lucky to win anything and embarrassed to admit it was sheer dumb luck as I did not even read the rules . PM coming.

Thanks for the contest sir !
 

mrmopar

Member
Jan 19, 2010
4,054
Thanks again for a memorable contest. I did call the “possible” nobody elected and was close with Buehrle and Hudson getting enough votes to stay on the ballot but cool that Hunter got some love too. His career stats surprised me. Where did he come from all of the sudden! The strong quiet type. Otherwise I did not represent well this time but still enjoyed the game.
 

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