500 HR vs. 3,000 Hits

[muskiesfan]

I read in another thread and have seen it many, many times before that 500 HRs doesn't mean what it used to. I understand more people have joined it lately and the steroid era doesn't help, but here's my post from that other thread.

Why do people believe that? There are 25 members in the 500 HR Club. There are 4 active players with 400+; Delgado, Chipper, Giambi, and Vlad. I'm sorry, but I don't think all of them will make it to 500. I'm sure at least one will, but not all 4.

There are 27 members in the 3,000 Hit Club. There are 5 active players with 2,600+; Griffey, Vizquel, Pudge, Sheffield, and Jeter. I would say at least one of them is going to make it.

So even if 3 of the 4 with 400+ career HRs make the 500 Club and only 1 of the 5 make the 3,000 Hut Club, then they would be even with 28 in each. Just because there have been more people reach 500 HRs lately rather than 3,000 hits should not diminish what 500 HRs mean. Less people make the HR Club than the Hit Club.

So why is 500 HR being looked down on when less people reach that milestone than 3,000 hits?

 

[sportscardtheory]

The best club is the 500 HR/3,000 Hit club.

 

[gracecollector]

In a word, steroids. People see all the recent members of the 500 club and think membership has been inflated artificially through the use of performance enhancers.

There is less of a correlation to steroids and base hits. 3,000 hits is a mark of consistenancy and a keen batting eye.

There are at least two factors that are making it harder to reach 3,000 hits. Ballpark dimensions come into play. Smaller parks than the old days have contributed to more homeruns, and slightly less hits. Smaller dimensions make it easier to get to balls hit in the outfield. And to a much less extent is the factor of salaries. In the past, players played longer careers because they needed the money. You need to play a long time to get to 3,000 hits. Today's players just don't have that financial incentive to stick around and play well into their late 30's and early 40's. I think fans realize it's getting harder to reach 3,000 hits, and hitting 500 homeruns, in an era that encourages swinging from the heels, is getting slightly easier.

 

[DetroitTigers]

500 Homeruns- Some people think these guys are one dimensional players.

3,000 Hits- I guess people see these guys as all around players with speed ect which help a team more.

 

[pujolsthomefan33]

You are answering your own question....more people look down on it because more and more players are obtaining the 500 HR feat, or are very close......

Lets look at the active players right now that have obtained or have a GOOD shot at 500...

Griffey 623
ARod 574
Thome 562
Manny 540
Thomas 521
Sheffield 509
Delgado 473
Chipper 423
Giambi 407
Vladdy 400
Andruw Jones 388
Pujols 357
Jermaine Dye 322
Helton 321
Konerko 319
Adam Dunn 308
Berkman 306
Sexson 306
Glaus 304
Ortiz 304
IRod 303
Carlos Lee 300



Safe to say the ones bolded will probably make it to 500 HRs.....so potentially you have 11+ guys getting into the 500 HR Club that started their careers in the Majors around 1990 that are ACTIVE....that doesnt even include Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, and Palmiero........hell, almost half of the 500 HR club has been decided with guys that started their careers around 1987 or after....



TK

 

[leatherman]

Since 1980, only 5 players began their careers and got 3000 hits:
Ripken
Gwynn
Biggio
Palmeiro
Boggs

In the same period, 10 players began their careers and got 500 HR:
Bonds
Griffey
Sosa
McGwire
Arod
Palmeiro
Thome
Manny
Frank Thomas
Sheffield

Translation: For most baseball fans, we have seen twice as many 500 HR hitters as we have seen 3000 hit members. And with 7 of the 10 being in the middle of steroid discussions, we tend to lump all the 500 HR hitters together and forget about the effort required to reach this milestone.

Incidentally, in 1929 when Babe Ruth hit his 500th HR, the 3000 hit club already had 6 members (Collins, Cobb, Speaker, Wagner, Lajoie, Anson).

David

 

[muskiesfan]

More players have joined who have started their careers since 1980, but look at how many joined and when.

Just to further illustrate the point. Since 1990, 11 players have joined the 3,000 Hit Club:

1992- George Brett and Robin Yount
1993- Dave Winfield
1995- Eddie Murray
1996- Paul Molitor
1999- Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn
2000- Cal Ripken Jr.
2001- Rickey Henderson
2005- Rafael Palmeiro
2007- Craig Biggio

Since 1990, 11 players have joined the 500 HR Club:

1996- Eddie Murray
1999- Mark McGwire
2001- Barry Bonds*
2003- Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro
2004- Ken Griffey Jr.
2007- Alex Rodriguez, Frank Thomas, and Jim Thome
2008- Manny Ramirez
2009- Gary Sheffield

So both groups have grown equally in that time period. The ‘90s saw 7 hitters reach 3,000 and 2 reach 500. The ‘00s have seen 4 reach 3,000 and 9 reach 500. It’s simply cyclical. The 3,000 Hit Club means just as much and the 500 HR Club should as well. We have just simply hit a period of time where more people have made it to 500 than 3,000 in the last 9 years.

People have short memories and with the steroid cloud, instantly everyone is going to make it to 500, but magically it won’t help anyone reach 3,000. Both of these groups are pretty exclusive and neither should lose importance due to the amount of people who have reached them recently.

 

[Frow]

Another note to this conversation. One of the reasons people like these numbers is because they're nice big, and round numbers. With 3k hits that is the top milestone. The 3,000 hit milestone is the absolute apex of hitting achievement. While players have hit more than 3,000 it stands as the de facto milestone. Sure there have been players to get 3,500 and even a couple with 4k, but their all old timers from way back when and no matter what 3k is the mark.

500 HR is not the climex for power hitters. In modern day sports we've seen 3 players break 600 career HR's, and have seen our third 700 HR+ guy in history. In modern day sports we've even seen 7 players hit 550 (there were only 6 before). How can the same weight be given to 500 when it's not the ending milestone, but only the begining.

 

[predatorkj]

Another note to this conversation. One of the reasons people like these numbers is because they're nice big, and round numbers. With 3k hits that is the top milestone. The 3,000 hit milestone is the absolute apex of hitting achievement. While players have hit more than 3,000 it stands as the de facto milestone. Sure there have been players to get 3,500 and even a couple with 4k, but their all old timers from way back when and no matter what 3k is the mark.

500 HR is not the climex for power hitters. In modern day sports we've seen 3 players break 600 career HR's, and have seen our third 700 HR+ guy in history. In modern day sports we've even seen 7 players hit 550 (there were only 6 before). How can the same weight be given to 500 when it's not the ending milestone, but only the begining.

Bingo.Its not that the number doesn't mean something but it just seems more and more guys are doing it.And there are many following in their footsteps.Like Howard, and Dunn and Berkman and Lee and Fielder.All these guys, if they stay healthy, have a chance to do this.Never before have so many big time homerun hitters played in or around the same era have they?Its almost like just about every team out there has at least one guy capable of crushing 30-40 homers a year.It kind of loses its appeal where as a guy like Ichiro and Kinsler who get hits at an incredible pace stand out a little more as having accomplished a harder feat.

 

[leatherman]

How about this?

You can't reach 3000 hits without playing at least 15 seasons (Pete Rose is the only player to get his 3000th hit in his 16th season).

However, 13 players reached 500 HRs in their first 16 seasons (3 of them reached it in their 14th season - Mays, Arod, McGwire).

Players typically reach 3000 hits in their last season or two, while 500 HRs is usually achieved before that. Recent 3000 hit members Boggs, Palmeiro, Brock, Carew, Rickey, Winfield, Gwynn, Yount, Brett, and Ripken all got #3000 at the very end of their career, as the "cherry on top" of their careers. Ripken finished with the most hits of that group at 3184, which is only 6% more than 3000.

On the other hand, if we apply the 6% to the 500 HRs, we look at recent players with less than 530 HRs, you see Eddie Murray at 504, Gary Sheffield with 509, and Frank Thomas at 521. All the other recent 500 HR hitters just marched past 500 like it was nothing and kept going. THOSE GUYS made 500 look like it was nothing, because they left it in the dust. If we had guys today getting 3000 hits and then playing 5 more seasons, they would end up with 3500 hits or more, thus leaving 3000 in the dust. However, since Pete Rose, only one player has more than 3200 hits (Eddie Murray).

3000 hits is the death knoll for baseball players today. 500 HRs seems to come long before a player retires (in most cases today), and I think that diminishes its value to the fan.


David

 

[i43770]

You can't reach 3000 hits without playing at least 15 seasons (Pete Rose is the only player to get his 3000th hit in his 16th season).

Ichiro has averaged 225 hits a season, going into this year. If he were here in the US during his prime, instead of years in Japan. He would have been on pace to do it in less than 14 seasons.

 

[hofautos]

steroids tarnish
Once the steroid era dissolves, 500HR will once again be respected.
10 years from now, 400HR will be looked at in awe.

300 wins is a thing of the past too.

 

[kdailey4315]

steroids tarnish
Once the steroid era dissolves, 500HR will once again be respected.
10 years from now, 400HR will be looked at in awe.

300 wins is a thing of the past too.

I don't think so. With the way the parks are built now 400 will still be achieved by a lot of players.

 

[200lbhockeyplayer]

I don't think that the steroids era will ever be gone, it will simply mold into something else...like baseball always has in its past.

Baseball has always had liquid mores...tomorrow, something else will be frowned upon and something else will be hidden and we can't project the past or future onto to present.

 

[matfanofold]

Personally, I think 500 HR's and 3000 hits are both awesome stats, steroids or not. I think the reason the 500 HR line is being watered down is because the HR is all the rage. It gets all the exposure and gets all the glamour. Everyone knows who hit a HR, when they hit it and how many they have. They are tracked daily, weekly and seasonally. By the time someone hits 100 of them, they are allready looking ahead to when 500 will be reached. With 3000 hits, it's not really talked about till someone gets to 2500 and has a realistic shot.

So, in a nut shell, all the exposure that the HR actually gets over the daily hit, I think the fans are just numbed to the grandure of 500 and despite it being just as elusive as 3000, it's precieved as easier to achieve simply due to the publicity it gets on a daily basis.

Just my 2.

 

[KOBEARODLT]

3000 hits for sure, and i would have to say 600 hrs to