Albert Pujols Bowman Chromes - How's the market?

[Krom]

It really depends on how his career goes.
Will it be cut short due to injury(s).
How long before he "poops out".
If he can stick around long enough to break major records, it could go up still.

I personally believe, due to his build and questionable age, that he may not break any major records and that he will go down in history as one of the greatest but longevity will be an issue. I suspect 15 years, hof numbers, but will start slowing down, and his cards will follow. Then after he retires they will go down even more. I suspect you will be able to pick one up for under $2k when few will care anymore, and he won't hold any monumental records.

IMHO- bash if you may.

I plan on picking one up a year or more after he retires, but before he goes into the HOF.

I would not bet they go down unless he is proved to have juiced or starts playing like crap.

Why? Tell me one recent player who's cards did not go down after they retire?
People lose interest, especially when his numbers start slumping. But you are entitled to your opinion, i just disagree.

Every card will have a peak and valleys. The thing that make peaks and valleys go up and down is NEWS.
Steroids, Injuries, slumping, MVP, GG, records....
I just suspect his better years are behind him, even if he may remain consistent for 5 more years, i don't see his cards going up until re reaches record numbers...more likely future news will be injuries, slumping, retirement...I give him 5 more good years max, and his cards haven't done much while he has been consistent.

Why? its easy, there is HUGE demand and limited supply. If he isnt accused of roiding i would love to pick one up in the future. I am quite sure i am not alone. You reasoning isn't valid here because noone has been a huge star and retired with a limited auto rc. It hasn't happened yet. Of course there have been tons of rcs that might have seen a drop after retiring but they were all produced in quantity. Cards that have had 100,000s made surely will drop easily. Cards like the BC Pujols auto - i doubt it. You can't compare it with 1980 Topps Henderson rcs for example.

I don't think demand is that high. Most of the ones you see on ebay are fixed price and no one touches them. Those that do go to auction have been remaining in the same relative price range, with none driving them up...likely shilled by buddy, or kept high by other owners who don't want to see them depreciate from the "norm". People aren't willing to pay more than a few thousand today, what will make them be willing to pay more in the future...unless he does break records or BIG NEWS. MVP isn't doing anything for his value. How are his other rookies doing? It's easy to control the price of something where there aren't that many of them, but if you want a more true indication of his cards, look at his other rookies and cards. The demand will be even LOWER if he doesn't reach expected milestones. If he starts slumping. Consider he fizzled this year. I don't suspect that will happen, but I do suspect in 5 years....

Curious though, do you think it will go up from here if he doesn't put up record numbers or doesn't have BIG NEWS surrounding him?

Demand is high enough to see them sell for over 2k easy. I haven't even seen one sell that low since a few years back when the economy was at its worst. They might not jump but i just don't see them dropping. Looking at his other cards only helps so much. If Ichiros 2001 UD rookie dropped that wouldn't mean that his 2 auto rcs would drop too. The BC is a very iconic card already.

 

[hofautos]

Why? Tell me one recent player who's cards did not go down after they retire?
People lose interest, especially when his numbers start slumping. But you are entitled to your opinion, i just disagree.

Every card will have a peak and valleys. The thing that make peaks and valleys go up and down is NEWS.
Steroids, Injuries, slumping, MVP, GG, records....
I just suspect his better years are behind him, even if he may remain consistent for 5 more years, i don't see his cards going up until re reaches record numbers...more likely future news will be injuries, slumping, retirement...I give him 5 more good years max, and his cards haven't done much while he has been consistent.

This makes a lot of sense. Its also interesting to consider the 2001 Pujols as the most 'iconic' Bowman Chrome card. It doesn't seem to have a lot of room for growth - which is typical for cards of the Bowman brand a couple years after release. I'm sure most, if not all, would agree it will never reach the heights of, or compare to, many vintage non-rookie cards - -

It really depends on his longevity. If he is able to be consistent for 10 more years and break major records,it will forever be one of the most desired cards.
If he fizzles in 5 years and ends up with Hank Greenberg type slugging numbers, and Killebrew like HR numbers few will care. Also Vintage collectors are a special breed, many have no desire to own all the greats, keeping their focus on only vintage.

People remember major records,
Who is the greatest slugger of all time?
Who is the greatest base stealer of all time?
Who is the hit king?
Who owns the legitimate HR record?

Now tell me who has the 7th greatest slugging percentage, Who is 45th in Homeruns 309th on the Hitlist and the best 1st baseman from 2001-2015?

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Its entirely possible that Bowman/Bowman Chrome may lose its popularity to Elite, USA, or Debut

Thats not likely, people thought tha same about Razor. You have to keep in mind not all people are turned off by fys. I like Hanley as an example. He was never a Red Sox but they are much nicer cards than his mlb rcs. The 06? Sp auto rc is more limited than the refractor rc but never sells for close to the BC.

Yes, I agree. I'm thinking its entirely possible that people may learn to appreciate and prefer FY cards where the player is shown on the correct team. A lot of casual collectors don't know the difference which is awful. A chrome card from Debut or Bowman showing the player on an MiLB roster would kick ass but would be different from current, traditional BC.

 

[J_Hamilton_32]

his bowman rookie went wayyy down...that card be easily over 70-80...you can get it now for 30-35 all day.....for a guy thats putting up record past numbers...his cards are going down.....because people are skepitcal

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

It really depends on his longevity. If he is able to be consistent for 10 more years and break major records,it will forever be one of the most desired cards.
If he fizzles in 5 years and ends up with Hank Greenberg type numbers, he will be forgotten in time. Also Vintage collectors are a special breed, many have no desire to own all the greats, keeping their focus on only vintage.

Sure, I understand, I'd add that modern folks also tend to keep their focus on modern, so things even out there.

 

[hofautos]

Sure, I understand, I'd add that modern folks also tend to keep their focus on modern, so things even out there.

In a nutshell, I think most people fit into these type of collectors:

Player collectors
Team collectors
Vintage collectors
Prewar Collectors
HOF Rookie collectors

I don't think there a many that considers themselves modern collectors, except for the flippers...Flippers won't have anything to do with Pujols cards anymore.
Slight chance There will be an increase in the number of Pujols "player collectors".
Those that consider themselves HOF rookie collectors, already have an eye on pujols, and that card will or will not be in their budget.
There may be an increase in the number of HOF rookie collectors getting into the hobby, but more likely there will probably be an equal or more amount of people getting out.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Why? Tell me one recent player who's cards did not go down after they retire?
People lose interest, especially when his numbers start slumping. But you are entitled to your opinion, i just disagree.

Every card will have a peak and valleys. The thing that make peaks and valleys go up and down is NEWS.
Steroids, Injuries, slumping, MVP, GG, records....
I just suspect his better years are behind him, even if he may remain consistent for 5 more years, i don't see his cards going up until re reaches record numbers...more likely future news will be injuries, slumping, retirement...I give him 5 more good years max, and his cards haven't done much while he has been consistent.

This makes a lot of sense. Its also interesting to consider the 2001 Pujols as the most 'iconic' Bowman Chrome card. It doesn't seem to have a lot of room for growth - which is typical for cards of the Bowman brand a couple years after release. I'm sure most, if not all, would agree it will never reach the heights of, or compare to, many vintage non-rookie cards - -

It really depends on his longevity. If he is able to be consistent for 10 more years and break major records,it will forever be one of the most desired cards.
If he fizzles in 5 years and ends up with Hank Greenberg type numbers, he will be forgotten in time. Also Vintage collectors are a special breed, many have no desire to own all the greats, keeping their focus on only vintage.

I'm a huge Greenberg fan, but let's look at the numbers:

Pujols career stats:

Batting average: .331
hits: 1900
doubles: 426
homeruns: 408
RBI: 1230

3 MVP's, 3 2nd place

Hank Greenberg career stats:

Batting average: .313
hits: 1628
doubles: 379
homeruns: 331
RBI 1276

2 MVP

The thing with Pujols is that he has already accumulated such incredible numbers, that he is well on pace to be amongst the greats. If he continues for 5 years at his current 162 game averages (42 homers, 198 hits, 44, doubles and 128 RBI) he'll be at:

batting average: .331
hits: 2890
doubles: 646
homers: 618
RBI: 1870

That would put him 6th on the all-time home run list (though 7th once A-rod hits a few more) 8th all-time in doubles, 11th all-time in RBI and approaching 3000 hits at the age of 35. While he'll likely miss some time (those are 162 game averages) there's no telling how old he will be before he retires. If he declines for 5 years after that, he could easily still hit another 150 homers, 500 RBI, 200 doubles and 800 hits etc. That would leave him #1 all-time in homers, doubles, RBI with 3500+ hits.

Of course this is all speculative, but he has a legit chance of setting a ton of records, and even with serious decline, 600 homers and ranks amongst the all-time greats in many other stats seems likely.

 

[hofautos]

If he continues for 5 years at his current 162 game averages (42 homers, 198 hits, 44, doubles and 128 RBI) he'll be at:

batting average: .331
hits: 2890
doubles: 646
homers: 618
RBI: 1870

That would put him 6th on the all-time home run list (though 7th once A-rod hits a few more) 8th all-time in doubles, 11th all-time in RBI and approaching 3000 hits at the age of 35. While he'll likely miss some time (those are 162 game averages) there's no telling how old he will be before he retires.

.

I edited before you replied to say "if he ends up with Greenberg type Slugging numbers and killebrew type HR numbers" few will care.
I agree it's all speculative, which is the intent of the post, and asking for others opinions.
Even if he is able to be consistently great for 5 more years, matching his best years, (doubtful imho), and he is considered one of the greatest ever, so is Stan Musial. IMHO, for his cards to increase from where they ALREADY ARE, he would need to break records. I just feel he and his cards have already peaked. Few will care if he doesn't break records, especially as he starts slumping....What was the most his 2001 chrome auto has been?

 

[hofautos]

[quote="hofautos":336tz6nf]It really depends on how his career goes.
Will it be cut short due to injury(s).
How long before he "poops out".
If he can stick around long enough to break major records, it could go up still.

I personally believe, due to his build and questionable age, that he may not break any major records and that he will go down in history as one of the greatest but longevity will be an issue. I suspect 15 years, hof numbers, but will start slowing down, and his cards will follow. Then after he retires they will go down even more. I suspect you will be able to pick one up for under $2k when few will care anymore, and he won't hold any monumental records.

IMHO- bash if you may.

I plan on picking one up a year or more after he retires, but before he goes into the HOF.

I would not bet they go down unless he is proved to have juiced or starts playing like crap.

Why? Tell me one recent player who's cards did not go down after they retire?
People lose interest, especially when his numbers start slumping. But you are entitled to your opinion, i just disagree.

Every card will have a peak and valleys. The thing that make peaks and valleys go up and down is NEWS.
Steroids, Injuries, slumping, MVP, GG, records....
I just suspect his better years are behind him, even if he may remain consistent for 5 more years, i don't see his cards going up until re reaches record numbers...more likely future news will be injuries, slumping, retirement...I give him 5 more good years max, and his cards haven't done much while he has been consistent.

Why? its easy, there is HUGE demand and limited supply. If he isnt accused of roiding i would love to pick one up in the future. I am quite sure i am not alone. You reasoning isn't valid here because noone has been a huge star and retired with a limited auto rc. It hasn't happened yet. Of course there have been tons of rcs that might have seen a drop after retiring but they were all produced in quantity. Cards that have had 100,000s made surely will drop easily. Cards like the BC Pujols auto - i doubt it. You can't compare it with 1980 Topps Henderson rcs for example.

I don't think demand is that high. Most of the ones you see on ebay are fixed price and no one touches them. Those that do go to auction have been remaining in the same relative price range, with none driving them up...likely shilled by buddy, or kept high by other owners who don't want to see them depreciate from the "norm". People aren't willing to pay more than a few thousand today, what will make them be willing to pay more in the future...unless he does break records or BIG NEWS. MVP isn't doing anything for his value. How are his other rookies doing? It's easy to control the price of something where there aren't that many of them, but if you want a more true indication of his cards, look at his other rookies and cards. The demand will be even LOWER if he doesn't reach expected milestones. If he starts slumping. Consider he fizzled this year. I don't suspect that will happen, but I do suspect in 5 years....

Curious though, do you think it will go up from here if he doesn't put up record numbers or doesn't have BIG NEWS surrounding him?

Demand is high enough to see them sell for over 2k easy. I haven't even seen one sell that low since a few years back when the economy was at its worst. They might not jump but i just don't see them dropping. Looking at his other cards only helps so much. If Ichiros 2001 UD rookie dropped that wouldn't mean that his 2 auto rcs would drop too. The BC is a very iconic card already.[/quote:336tz6nf]

The 1989 Griffey is iconic. Iconic doesn't always mean $$.
I don't see them dropping any time soon, mainly because there are so few of them, there are enough owners to keep the price up. But once the demand drops, there will not be much to sustain them at current levels.
Again, it really just depends on longevity. I think you will see the price remain flat as current owners keep them where they are at.
It will take BIG NEWS to drive them up, or slumping news to make them go down.
JMO

 

[hofautos]

Looking at his other cards only helps so much. If Ichiros 2001 UD rookie dropped that wouldn't mean that his 2 auto rcs would drop too. The BC is a very iconic card already.

Looking at someone's whole market does make sense. Although you may not deduce value linearly, it still gives an indication of market interest.
One thing Ichiro has over Pujols is that he has the Japanese market as well, and that regardless of his future, he will hold the ALL TIME HIT SEASON HIT RECORD, will be the first Japanese MLB player inducted, has many other hit records. I would suggest the ICHIRO is a "safer" investment than PUJOLS is today.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

In a nutshell, I think most people fit into these type of collectors:

Player collectors
Team collectors
Vintage collectors
Prewar Collectors
HOF Rookie collectors

I don't think there a many that considers themselves modern collectors, except for the flippers...Flippers won't have anything to do with Pujols cards anymore.
Slight chance There will be an increase in the number of Pujols "player collectors".
Those that consider themselves HOF rookie collectors, already have an eye on pujols, and that card will or will not be in their budget.
There may be an increase in the number of HOF rookie collectors getting into the hobby, but more likely there will probably be an equal or more amount of people getting out.

I'd add *set* collectors of course, and casual collectors who come and go. There are a lot of modern collectors who don't touch vintage, I'd guess about as many as pure vintage collectors. And I'd agree there are people who only sell/flip but don't collect. Plus some who dabble in multiple areas.

 

[bballcardkid]

It wouldn't surprise me to see this card in mint 9 form to sell for $5K in 10 years as long as nothing malicious about him comes out. Pujols can be argued as the best hitter of all time, and [knock on wood] barring any injury, the higher he climbs on the all time offensive lists, the more iconic he will become, the more he will be discussed and mentioned in the same sentences as Ruth, Williams, etc, and the more this card will increase in value.

Then again, it also wouldn't surprise me to see this sell for $1K in 10 years either. Who knows.

 

[naysayer]

Which rookie card issued since 2000 (superfractors not counting here) has the best chance to achieve Pujols prices?

Would love everyone's thoughts.

 

[Jeff D]

There are a lot of modern collectors who don't touch vintage, I'd guess about as many as pure vintage collectors.

I don't think there's anyway that's true. If you include kids that are buying packs every few weeks at Walmart, maybe. But if you're talking about ebay buying, BGS/PSA grading COLLECTORS...no way.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

There are a lot of modern collectors who don't touch vintage, I'd guess about as many as pure vintage collectors.

I don't think there's anyway that's true. If you include kids that are buying packs every few weeks at Walmart, maybe. But if you're talking about ebay buying, BGS/PSA grading COLLECTORS...no way.

I disagree, probably because I'm including everyone. Its possible there may be more people with vintage cards in their attics and garages who do not actively collect or only buy something once every couple years, I wouldn't include these people because they're not really active.

Of course getting modern cards is as easy as going to Walmart or local LCS if you're lucky enough to have one; but not everyone knows where to get vintage.

 

[hofautos]

It wouldn't surprise me to see this card in mint 9 form to sell for $5K in 10 years as long as nothing malicious about him comes out. Pujols can be argued as the best hitter of all time, and [knock on wood] barring any injury, the higher he climbs on the all time offensive lists, the more iconic he will become, the more he will be discussed and mentioned in the same sentences as Ruth, Williams, etc, and the more this card will increase in value.

Then again, it also wouldn't surprise me to see this sell for $1K in 10 years either. Who knows.

+1

It really depends on his career. Next year he will hit the 2000 hit mark, and he will be in the news, which could create a small spike for a short period.
If he starts fizzling out anywhere between now and 5 years, I would suspect a drop, and is where I personally put my thoughts.
Still curious as to what the peak has been?
I think if he can break the HR record it is easily a $5K card.
I don't see it getting much below 2K, based solely on what I have already suggested, that the current owners will bid it at least $1500 just to keep it where it is at regardless if they want a 2nd or 3rd one or not. Because of just how few there are, it is easy for owners to control the price.

 

[hofautos]

Which rookie card issued since 2000 (superfractors not counting here) has the best chance to achieve Pujols prices?

Would love everyone's thoughts.

Discount any rookie with print run less than 250-500.
Miguel Cabrera has climbed the ladder the fastest so far, but his best rookie isn't limited to 500.
No current players rookie printed to 500 will reach Pujols plateaus.