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Chris Levy said:
Agreed,
I think the statistic could be modified in many positive ways and then used "correctly" and would be very valuable.
I personally would throw out any formula that attributes "some author's" variable for different positions, and defense.
I would simply use the stat to compare players of the same era and of the same position...e.g. compare all 1st basemen to 1st basemen of the same era.
I then would have a formula just for defense.
In doing so,
I would suggest who were the best 1st basemen during each decade, who were the best pitchers for each decade, etc...
I would then suggest who the best defensive players were
I would then use SLUGGING and OPS to define who the best sluggers were. (my favorite stat)
I wouldn't worry about saying pitcher x is greater than shortstop y when they were of completely different generations.
To compare unlike positions, especially of different times is ludicrous imho.
My list would include the top 3-4 players of each position for each decade (if it was close add a 5th) to define great.
Then i would use polls to define who were the most popular. I believe some players should be on the "great list" based on their character..they wouldn't even be considered in the running if they weren't at least very good players...e.g. I am ok with people like maz making the HOF. I am not saying to subtract points for bad character, but certain individuals do deserve bonus points for their character. I am also ok, with snubbing people that are marginal if they are idiots.[/quote:26jymlaj]
It's become painfully clear after reading your last few posts on the subject that you have no understanding about WAR. Because, the very things you claim you dislike about WAR, are included as core tennants of it.
Of course it factors in clutch hitting! Of course it can identify the best players at each position of each era!
Look up at the top of the FCB page and click on the link that says "Chat." I'll do my best to go over it with you, because you've been interested in the topic enough to reply countless times, so you must want to learn.[/quote:26jymlaj]
I will find a time to chat with you soon, and would enjoy it.
I admit I haven't looked at it. Does it use Bill James winshares at all? I am a big fan of it. I also like Baseball Reference HOF monitor. I probably will like WAR also, once I understand it more, but it clearly has some flaws that can't be overlooked, at least in the manner you are using it. I may be VERY comfortable with it to use for a single season, I just am not a big fan of using it for 5 years to define the "best".
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hofautos said:
Yes. It is wrong to inflate numbers just so you can have a catcher on the list. But, it would not surprise me that if around 2015 Joe Mauer breaks Johnny Bench's pWAR mark. So there could be a catcher there eventually.
No arbitrary numbers were used for positions. They were scientifically adjusted, and catchers did receive a bonus. But, even with that bonus Bench's WAR were not high enough to be on my list.
Go to baseball-reference.com. Go to any player's stat sheet. Go down to the table they have for WAR. It's called "Player Values." Put your mouse over any red text in the header, such as Rpos. It'll tell you exactly what it was, who made it, and how it fits together.
It's not The Da Vinci Code!
Chris Levy said:
Yes. It is wrong to inflate numbers just so you can have a catcher on the list. But, it would not surprise me that if around 2015 Joe Mauer breaks Johnny Bench's pWAR mark. So there could be a catcher there eventually.
No arbitrary numbers were used for positions. They were scientifically adjusted, and catchers did receive a bonus. But, even with that bonus Bench's WAR were not high enough to be on my list.
Go to baseball-reference.com. Go to any player's stat sheet. Go down to the table they have for WAR. It's called "Player Values." Put your mouse over any red text in the header, such as Rpos. It'll tell you exactly what it was, who made it, and how it fits together.
It's not The Da Vinci Code![/quote:1nrpxj3o]
Eventually nothing. Any "formula" used to create a top 50 list that doesn't include Johnny Bench is the wrong formula.
I am sure even the author of WAR had no intention to use it in the manner you have to create a top 50 list based on 5 WAR8.
I may be happy to use WAR in my own manner to create a top 50 list, by creating a formula similar to what I already shared.
I would use to define the best 2-6 players of each position, add a few best defensive players, and then a couple big record holders.
How does Ichiro rate?
It definitely would have Bench on it, but I am ok, with using a "factor of WAR" in the equation, just not the manner in which you used it...although it is a good start.
- Thread starter
- #205
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Guest
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hofautos said:
What statistical evidence can you offer that Bench was within the Top 50 to ever play major league baseball? Do you have any facts behind this statement other than "I think he was great" and "he was the best ever at his position"?
My pWAR construct states Johnny Bench was the best player at his position, but his statistical performance lagged far behind other players.
If you want simply to see the best pWAR at position. Here you go. And keep in mind this includes both offensive and defensive stats. You asked for 2-6. I'll give you 10.
Pitcher
Johnson, Walter
Alexander, Pete
Gibson, Bob
Mathewson, Christy
Clemens, Roger
Grove, Lefty
Walsh, Ed
Koufax, Sandy
Perry, Perry
Seaver, Tom
Catcher
Bench, Johnny
Piazza, Mike
Carter, Gary
Berra, Yogi
Fisk, Carlton
Rodriguez, Ivan
Torre, Joe
Campanella, Roy
Cochrane, Mickey
Munson, Thurman
First Basemen
Gehrig, Lou
Pujols, Albert
Foxx, Jimmie
Banks, Ernie
Brouthers, Dan
Carew, Rod
Bagwell, Jeff
Connor, Roger
Allen, Dick
Giambi, Jason
Second Basmen
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Robinson, Jackie
Gehringer, Charlie
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne
Gordon, Joe
Alomar, Roberto
Third Basemen
Schmidt, Mike
Boggs, Wade
Brett, George
Mathews, Eddie
Santo, Ron
Baker, Home Run
Jones, Chipper
Bando, Sal
Robinson, Brooks
Boyer, Ken
Shortstops
Wagner, Honus
Rodriguez, Alex
Ripken, Cal
Jennings, Hughie
Vaughan, Arky
Yount, Robin
Boudreau, Lou
Davis, George
Cronin, Joe
Garciaparra, Nomar
Leftfielders
Bonds, Barry
Williams, Ted
Musial, Stan
Henderson, Rickey
Yastrzemski, Carl
Jackson, Shoeless Joe
Delahanty, Ed
Kiner, Ralph
Rose, Pete
Simmons, Al
Centerfielders
Mantle, Mickey
Cobb, Ty
Mays, Willie
Speaker, Tris
DiMaggio, Joe
Griffey, Ken
Snider, Duke
Wynn, Jim
Edmonds, Jim
Jones, Andruw
Rightfielders
Ruth, Babe
Aaron, Hank
Ott, Mel
Robinson, Frank
Jackson, Reggie
Clemente, Roberto
Kaline, Al
Heilmann, Harry
Sosa, Sammy
Waner, Paul
Designated Hitters
Thomas, Frank
Martinez, Edgar
Molitor, Paul
Chris Levy said:
Using my logic, there are 10 positions, so in any top 50 list there should be AT LEAST 1 of every position in any top 50 list, and few would dispute that he is the best catcher of all time, and those that would, would at least concede he was 2nd.
To me catcher is one of the most important positions in the game, and in defining greatness, catcher should carry more weight than any other position.
Pitchers only pitch every 5 games, otherwise they would be the most important. There isn't a position that is more important than pitcher IMHO, where some may suggest SS. Perhaps defense is more important in other positions, but when you figure the Catcher "calls" the game, his position is almost as important as the pitcher, but since a pitcher only pitches every 5 games or so...He also handles the ball more than any other position. He has to crouch and wear comparitively uncomfortable gear that he has to put on and take off during the game. Batters swing bats about his head, and they take fast ball off bats, bad pitches, bad hop in dirt more than any other position. Who would want the catchers position. Who appreciates it. Their careers are often short lived than other positions....
Anyway, to not name a great catcher in a top 50 list is a crime punishable by the baseball gods. Every Top list I have ever seen, always shows Bench easily in the top 50.
Maybe catchers don't have the best offensive numbers, but how do you assign an arbitrary value to such an important position in defining one's greatness.
THANKS FOR THE pwar list! I will see if it will work for me.
^^^ these must be 5 year, right? how about 10 year?
I dont see pedro martinez or randy johnson?
Also thinking about pitchers, how can so many pitchers rate so high and yet NO catchers?
If there is a seperate formula for pitching stats, or just a value added for pitchers, because catchers are better offensively than pitchers?
IMHO, if they are able to show pitchers with high pwar, then they certainly can make catchers with a high pwar?
I know you didn't invent, but just asking if you know.
I don't know how this pwar became so popular with so many deficiencies.
I dont see pedro martinez or randy johnson?
Also thinking about pitchers, how can so many pitchers rate so high and yet NO catchers?
If there is a seperate formula for pitching stats, or just a value added for pitchers, because catchers are better offensively than pitchers?
IMHO, if they are able to show pitchers with high pwar, then they certainly can make catchers with a high pwar?
I know you didn't invent, but just asking if you know.
I don't know how this pwar became so popular with so many deficiencies.
pigskincardboard
New member
hofautos said:
It's still very difficult to properly rate a catcher's defensive ability. Furthermore, his ability to call a game (there's been some math done here that says it doesn't matter) is eliminated. All sorts of nuances are just eliminated.
Try and do it logically in your head -- What makes a great defensive catcher? Now, try and figure out how you'd actually measure that crap.
pigskincardboard said:
percentage of stealers caught?
or adding points for the position itself
excerpt HOF monitor-
For tough defensive positions, 60 for 1800 games as a catcher, 45 for 1,600 games, 30 for 1,400, and 15 for 1,200 games caught.
If you look at the HOF monitor and the formula they created it is pretty amazing that over 95% of elgible non-steroid players with a HOF monitor > 130 are actually in the HOF.
IS THIS A PWAR (average of the 10 best years of all hofers or just hofers with 10 pWAR 5+ seasons)?
e.g. Were players excluded from this list if they did not have 10 PWAR 5??
If so, how hard would it be to make me a list where hofers were not excluded if they didn't have 10 pwar5 seasons?
e.g. Were players excluded from this list if they did not have 10 PWAR 5??
If so, how hard would it be to make me a list where hofers were not excluded if they didn't have 10 pwar5 seasons?
[/quote]Chris Levy said:
ronfromfresno
Active member
Seriously the top ten at every position includes Jason Giambi over McCovey and Cepeda? Or Sal Bando is the 10th best 3B ever or Jim Edmonds is on the list? Really if this isn't a reason to take another look at the entire formula what is? These players ranking in the top 10 shows what I was talking about, they won't and should be in the HOF but according to pWAR they are better than current HOFers.
Ok, I assembled my 50 greatest players, not in any particular order, but ensured every position was represented, and there are 2 open positions for reconsideration.
Also, out of curiosity, if Jeter, Mariano, or Ichiro are calculated do either of them make top 50 using either PWAR 5+ or Pwar 8+
Ruth, Babe OF-R
Aaron, Hank OF-R
Clemente, Roberto OF-R
Ott, Mel OF-R
Robinson, Frank OF-R
Suzuki, Ichiro OF-R
Bonds, Barry OF-L
Henderson, Rickey OF-L
Musial, Stan OF-L
Rose, Pete OF-L
Williams, Ted OF-L
Cobb, Ty OF-C
DiMaggio, Joe OF-C
Griffey, Ken OF-C
Mantle, Mickey OF-C
Mays, Willie OF-C
Speaker, Tris OF-C
Foxx, Jimmie 1B
Gehrig, Lou 1B
Pujols, Albert 1B
Alexander, Pete Pitcher
Clemens, Roger Pitcher
Gibson, Bob Pitcher
Grove, Lefty Pitcher
Johnson, Walter Pitcher
Koufax, Sandy Pitcher
Mathewson, Christy Pitcher
Perry, Perry Pitcher
Seaver, Tom Pitcher
Young, Cy Pitcher
Johnson, Randy Pitcher
Collins, Eddie 2B
Hornsby, Rogers 2B
Lajoie, Nap 2B
Morgan, Joe 2B
Robinson, Jackie 2B
Ripken, Cal SS
Rodriguez, Alex SS
Jeter, Derek SS
Wagner, Honus SS
Brett, George 3B
Mathews, Eddie 3B
Schmidt, Mike 3B
Bench, Johnny Catcher
Berra, Yogi Catcher
Carter, Gary Catcher
Thomas, Frank Designated Hitters
Rivera, Mariano Relief Pitcher
Also, out of curiosity, if Jeter, Mariano, or Ichiro are calculated do either of them make top 50 using either PWAR 5+ or Pwar 8+
Ruth, Babe OF-R
Aaron, Hank OF-R
Clemente, Roberto OF-R
Ott, Mel OF-R
Robinson, Frank OF-R
Suzuki, Ichiro OF-R
Bonds, Barry OF-L
Henderson, Rickey OF-L
Musial, Stan OF-L
Rose, Pete OF-L
Williams, Ted OF-L
Cobb, Ty OF-C
DiMaggio, Joe OF-C
Griffey, Ken OF-C
Mantle, Mickey OF-C
Mays, Willie OF-C
Speaker, Tris OF-C
Foxx, Jimmie 1B
Gehrig, Lou 1B
Pujols, Albert 1B
Alexander, Pete Pitcher
Clemens, Roger Pitcher
Gibson, Bob Pitcher
Grove, Lefty Pitcher
Johnson, Walter Pitcher
Koufax, Sandy Pitcher
Mathewson, Christy Pitcher
Perry, Perry Pitcher
Seaver, Tom Pitcher
Young, Cy Pitcher
Johnson, Randy Pitcher
Collins, Eddie 2B
Hornsby, Rogers 2B
Lajoie, Nap 2B
Morgan, Joe 2B
Robinson, Jackie 2B
Ripken, Cal SS
Rodriguez, Alex SS
Jeter, Derek SS
Wagner, Honus SS
Brett, George 3B
Mathews, Eddie 3B
Schmidt, Mike 3B
Bench, Johnny Catcher
Berra, Yogi Catcher
Carter, Gary Catcher
Thomas, Frank Designated Hitters
Rivera, Mariano Relief Pitcher
ronfromfresno
Active member
hofautos said:
Look an Bando's career numbers and tell me where he has 5 years that even approach an MVP season. He had one season, 1969 that created a huge WAR number, that season shifts the average for the 5 seasons selected up. So he had two close to great seasons and a ton over very average seasons but the two great seasons push him above a lot of HOFers. He didn't have 5 great season, not even 3 and he's considered by Chris as a top 10 all time 3B. I mean look at the Black/Gray Ink and HOF monitor and standards he's not even close.
Same thing for Giambi he had one moster steroid fueled year in 2001 and that raises his average years into the 8 range and he's on the top 10 list.
hofautos said:
Eventually nothing. Any "formula" used to create a top 50 list that doesn't include Johnny Bench is the wrong formula.
I am sure even the author of WAR had no intention to use it in the manner you have to create a top 50 list based on 5 WAR8.
I may be happy to use WAR in my own manner to create a top 50 list, by creating a formula similar to what I already shared.
I would use to define the best 2-6 players of each position, add a few best defensive players, and then a couple big record holders.
How does Ichiro rate?
It definitely would have Bench on it, but I am ok, with using a "factor of WAR" in the equation, just not the manner in which you used it...although it is a good start.[/quote:2v8uprdb]
Ichiro doesnt walk and he doesnt hit for power, his war isnt all that great.
ronfromfresno
Active member
elmalo said:
No one was ever better than Mays, equal but not better Mays lost two years to the war and played at Candlestick which was an open stadium until the late '70's. You might ask why would it matter that Mays played at Candlestick? Well before they enclosed the stadium the wind blew in constantly from left, Mays is a right hander, in order to hit his HR he'd have to hit them out to right or power them through the wind. If he played in another home park and had his two years in his prime back we'd be talking about Mays as the HR king along with his speed, ability to get on base, defensive abilities and would have no question to his greatness. Mantle was tremendous and if he had never gotten injured he might have approached Mays numbers but they were equals.
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