Any statisticians around? Warning: Math!

[pigskincardboard]

This is really starting to bug me. I'm glad other people have spoken up.

What exactly are we trying to establish again? What question are we trying to answer? I think we should get on this before anything else, because right now this survey answers little more than "Which players had the best top 5 seasons, according to WAR"

 

[Guest]

Mike - he doesn't get it, and won't. Longevity & the ability to avoid/recover from injury should always be considered when measuring a players career, and he just doesn't understand that at all.

These are the same type of people who call Jim Brown the greatest NFL player of all time because of his 5.2 yds per carry.
Nobody EVER takes into consideration the fact that he retired after only 9 seasons. He was 29 years old when he retired, so he never played through his decline years. Jim Brown loves his yds/carry record, but a big reason he has it is because of the small sample size.

Sandy Koufax was a great pitcher, for 6 years. He also had 6 terrible years at the beginning of his career and retired at 30.

He was a great pitcher, but he's not even the best left-handed pitcher of all time.

You have to look at the entire career, period.

To some point, I agree that declining years shouldn't be used in defining one's greatness. Example many great players ERA and BA go down because they strive to make milestones, or simply because they love the game. I just think that there is no "magic formula", but if one was created, it would be a combination of all stats, and different weights given to different stats, but no matter what, longevity is an important one. I don't discount anything Levy has done, I just think he needs to modify his efforts if he wants to gain more acceptance. I noticed that Baseball reference is now including WAR numbers too. I like baseball's reference formula, but if somehow they included WAR into their HOF monitor, they could make their formula even better.

Don't you understand? WAR IS "a combination of all stats, and different weights given to different stats." You have just defined WAR.

a combination of ALL stats?? NOT

Yes. That is exactly what it is. Just like HOF monitor, HOF standards, etc. on baseball-reference.com assign points for certain stats to achieve it's numerical value, so too does WAR.

WAR is not a stat. It is an interpretation of all the stats, adjusted for the year, adjusted for the position, and translates hits, home runs, rbi, walks, steals, etc. into how many additional wins that player would generate based on their stats.

I believe you don't understand what WAR is and how it is compiled. That is all right. I won't make fun of you or think less of you for not knowing. I am not that kind of person.

The main proponent of war at baseall-projection was hired by an undisclosed MLB franchise and therefore he no longer talks to us normal people. That has caused a great difficulty in people learning about WAR.

The number of people who understand WAR greatly outnumber the people who do. There is no shame in not knowing. I will be the first to admit there is still a lot I would like to learn about it, but unfortunately cannot due to his nondisclosure agreement.

Regardless, I can assure you that it takes into account all offensive stats (oWAR) and defensive stats (dWAR) to formulate WAR. It is not a seperate stat. It is new way of interpreting the existing stats.

 

[Guest]

Where is Jeff Kent on the 2B rankings?

You have to understand that I have not entered every 2B in the history of the game into my formula, but if Jeff Kent were added to the current list of HOF second basemen it would look like this. I've also added Biggio for this example.

pWAR 8.0+ (MVP)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Robinson, Jackie
Gehringer, Charlie

pWAR 5.0+ (All-Star)
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne
Gordon, Joe
Alomar, Roberto
Biggio, Craig
Kent, Jeff
Herman, Billy
Fox, Nellie
Lazzeri, Tony
Doerr, Bobby
Evers, Johnny

pWAR 2.0+ (Starter)
McPhee, Bid
Schoendienst, Red
Mazeroski, Bill

 

[hofautos]

[quote="Chris Levy":1168jo2c]

Mike - he doesn't get it, and won't. Longevity & the ability to avoid/recover from injury should always be considered when measuring a players career, and he just doesn't understand that at all.

These are the same type of people who call Jim Brown the greatest NFL player of all time because of his 5.2 yds per carry.
Nobody EVER takes into consideration the fact that he retired after only 9 seasons. He was 29 years old when he retired, so he never played through his decline years. Jim Brown loves his yds/carry record, but a big reason he has it is because of the small sample size.

Sandy Koufax was a great pitcher, for 6 years. He also had 6 terrible years at the beginning of his career and retired at 30.

He was a great pitcher, but he's not even the best left-handed pitcher of all time.

You have to look at the entire career, period.

To some point, I agree that declining years shouldn't be used in defining one's greatness. Example many great players ERA and BA go down because they strive to make milestones, or simply because they love the game. I just think that there is no "magic formula", but if one was created, it would be a combination of all stats, and different weights given to different stats, but no matter what, longevity is an important one. I don't discount anything Levy has done, I just think he needs to modify his efforts if he wants to gain more acceptance. I noticed that Baseball reference is now including WAR numbers too. I like baseball's reference formula, but if somehow they included WAR into their HOF monitor, they could make their formula even better.

Don't you understand? WAR IS "a combination of all stats, and different weights given to different stats." You have just defined WAR.

a combination of ALL stats?? NOT

Yes. That is exactly what it is. Just like HOF monitor, HOF standards, etc. on baseball-reference.com assign points for certain stats to achieve it's numerical value, so too does WAR.

WAR is not a stat. It is an interpretation of all the stats, adjusted for the year, adjusted for the position, and translates hits, home runs, rbi, walks, steals, etc. into how many additional wins that player would generate based on their stats.

I believe you don't understand what WAR is and how it is compiled. That is all right. I won't make fun of you or think less of you for not knowing. I am not that kind of person.

The main proponent of war at baseall-projection was hired by an undisclosed MLB franchise and therefore he no longer talks to us normal people. That has caused a great difficulty in people learning about WAR.

The number of people who understand WAR greatly outnumber the people who do. There is no shame in not knowing. I will be the first to admit there is still a lot I would like to learn about it, but unfortunately cannot due to his nondisclosure agreement.

Regardless, I can assure you that it takes into account all offensive stats (oWAR) and defensive stats (dWAR) to formulate WAR. It is not a seperate stat. It is new way of interpreting the existing stats.[/quote:1168jo2c]
When i said all stats, I am referring to milestone stats, e.g. 500 hr, 3000 hits, etc. and other "career stats"....so NO, it does not include ALL stats.
Just curious, does it also take into account "clutch hitting"? E.g. situational stats? That is often an overlooked stat that is very important imho.

 

[scotty21690]

Per request, here are the top players in terms of WAR using a 10 year sample size.

Ruth, Babe
Bonds, Barry
Hornsby, Rogers
Mays, Willie
Cobb, Ty
Gehrig, Lou
Young, Cy
Williams, Ted
Wagner, Honus
Johnson, Walter
Mantle, Mickey
Nichols, Kid
Collins, Eddie
Musial, Stan
Speaker, Tris
Aaron, Hank
Pujols, Albert
Rodriguez, Alex
Schmidt, Mike
Clemens, Roger
Clarkson, John
Mathewson, Christy
Keefe, Tim
Grove, Lefty
Morgan, Joe
Alexander, Pete
Foxx, Jimmie
Mathews, Eddie
Lajoie, Nap
Henderson, Rickey
Ott, Mel
Gibson, Bob
Johnson, Randy
Radbourn, Old Hoss
Perry, Gaylord
Seaver, Tom
Boggs, Wade
DiMaggio, Joe
Delahanty, Ed

Tough to argue with that list TBH...

 

[hofautos]

Per request, here are the top players in terms of WAR using a 10 year sample size.

Ruth, Babe
Bonds, Barry
Hornsby, Rogers
Mays, Willie
Cobb, Ty
Gehrig, Lou
Young, Cy
Williams, Ted
Wagner, Honus
Johnson, Walter
Mantle, Mickey
Nichols, Kid
Collins, Eddie
Musial, Stan
Speaker, Tris
Aaron, Hank
Pujols, Albert
Rodriguez, Alex
Schmidt, Mike
Clemens, Roger
Clarkson, John
Mathewson, Christy
Keefe, Tim
Grove, Lefty
Morgan, Joe
Alexander, Pete
Foxx, Jimmie
Mathews, Eddie
Lajoie, Nap
Henderson, Rickey
Ott, Mel
Gibson, Bob
Johnson, Randy
Radbourn, Old Hoss
Perry, Gaylord
Seaver, Tom
Boggs, Wade
DiMaggio, Joe
Delahanty, Ed

Tough to argue with that list TBH...

That's what I say! A lot tougher to argue the 10 year list than the 5 year list.
Chevy, what is your problem with this 10 year list compared to the 5 year list, or is Koufax too far down the list for your liking?

Also, i would be curious why baseball reference HOF Monitor shows Koufax way above Gaylord, and it uses career numbers?? Maybe WAR could use a different weight for something?? HOF Monitor doesn't just user 5 years, it uses career numbers, and ranks Koufax pretty high. THere must be some weight that can be applied to somethign that will boost koufax up??

 

[Guest]

This is really starting to bug me. I'm glad other people have spoken up.

What exactly are we trying to establish again? What question are we trying to answer? I think we should get on this before anything else, because right now this survey answers little more than "Which players had the best top 5 seasons, according to WAR"

I'm glad you asked. I'll do my best to answer.

I believe the following:
1. WAR is the best measure of a player's individual season.
2. That a 'great' season is defined as a WAR 8.0+.
3. That career WAR cannot be used to rank players, because each player compiled their career WAR with a different number of games played.
4. That you can only compare two (or more) players using an equal sample size.

With these believes I wished to develop a variation of war called p(eak)WAR, which I hoped would serve as a tool to rank players based on their performance using an equal number of seasons, rather than varying career lengths.

Using the members of the baseball HOF as my starting point I discovered the following:

Pitchers
5 years: 21 'great' players
7 years: 12 'great' players
10 years: 5 'great' players

Catchers
5 years: 0 'great' players
7 years: 0 'great' players
10 years: 0 'great' players

Infielders
5 years: 19 'great' players
7 years: 10 'great' players
10 years: 3 'great' players

Outfielders
5 years: 13 'great' players
7 years: 9 'great' players
10 years: 8 'great' players

In addition, I found 35 players in the Hall of Fame whose 5 best seasons produced a WAR below 5.0 (All-Star). That means that at least 35 members of the Hall of Fame would not even be statistically considered All-Stars over a five year span, let alone MVP/Cy Young candidates. At 10 years I found that 33%, a full 1/3rd of inductees, of the members of the Hall of Fame produced a WAR below 5.0 (All-Star), which would disqualify them as candidates given modern interpretations.

Therefore, I felt that 5 years represented the best statistic interpretation of a player's prime, keeping in mind it would include careers from as far back as 1876, with many injury/death/war shortened careers unlike the typically long careers of the modern era.

Using their five best statistical seasons an average WAR (which I call pWAR) was created for the purpose of ranking the players as they were in their prime, rather than the entirety of their career.

It is my opinion that a player should be judged by their best against others at their best, rather than a varying length career against another varying length of career. My formula sought to (and I feel did) accomplish this.

 

[hofautos]

Where is Jeff Kent on the 2B rankings?

You have to understand that I have not entered every 2B in the history of the game into my formula, but if Jeff Kent were added to the current list of HOF second basemen it would look like this. I've also added Biggio for this example.

pWAR 8.0+ (MVP)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Robinson, Jackie
Gehringer, Charlie

pWAR 5.0+ (All-Star)
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne
Gordon, Joe
Alomar, Roberto
Biggio, Craig
Kent, Jeff
Herman, Billy
Fox, Nellie
Lazzeri, Tony
Doerr, Bobby
Evers, Johnny

pWAR 2.0+ (Starter)
McPhee, Bid
Schoendienst, Red
Mazeroski, Bill

Can i see 10 year numbers? Would that move Alomar above sandberg? And what are the actual war values, how close are they?
I also find it difficult to believe that with our farm systems today, that we can't produce a better 2nd baseman in the last 30 years than any preceeding years? Something just sounds odd here? none of sandberg, alomar, biggio or kent are better than any of the pwar 8.0 values? If they were to play side by side in their prime, the others would be decisively better?

 

[scotty21690]

Catchers
5 years: 0 'great' players
7 years: 0 'great' players
10 years: 0 'great' players

Based on? I think that a catchers defensive abilities (defense, calling a game, throwing out runners, etc..) weigh more than their offensive abilities....surely there is ONE great catcher in the history of baseball? Who came the closest?

 

[Guest]

Catchers
5 years: 0 'great' players
7 years: 0 'great' players
10 years: 0 'great' players

Based on? I think that a catchers defensive abilities (defense, calling a game, throwing out runners, etc..) weigh more than their offensive abilities....surely there is ONE great catcher in the history of baseball? Who came the closest?

Johnny Bench came those closest with a pWAR (5 years) of 7.2.

 

[Guest]

Where is Jeff Kent on the 2B rankings?

You have to understand that I have not entered every 2B in the history of the game into my formula, but if Jeff Kent were added to the current list of HOF second basemen it would look like this. I've also added Biggio for this example.

pWAR 8.0+ (MVP)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Robinson, Jackie
Gehringer, Charlie

pWAR 5.0+ (All-Star)
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne
Gordon, Joe
Alomar, Roberto
Biggio, Craig
Kent, Jeff
Herman, Billy
Fox, Nellie
Lazzeri, Tony
Doerr, Bobby
Evers, Johnny

pWAR 2.0+ (Starter)
McPhee, Bid
Schoendienst, Red
Mazeroski, Bill

Can i see 10 year numbers? Would that move Alomar above sandberg? And what are the actual war values, how close are they?

I don't have full data entered for 2B yet.

This is an "incomplete" 10 year ranking of 2B

WAR 8.0+ MVP (10 yrs)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie

WAR 5.0+ All-Star (10 yrs)
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Gehringer, Charlie
Robinson, Jackie
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne

As for the individual numbers. Once I complete the testing phase my complete data will be published online and made available (at no charge) to everyone interested.

Because I respond to my critics, rather than insult them, I will be including a 7 and 10 year matrix in addition to my preferred 5 year one. But, this of course will take time.

 

[scotty21690]

[quote="Chris Levy":1wdpx92a]Catchers
5 years: 0 'great' players
7 years: 0 'great' players
10 years: 0 'great' players

Based on? I think that a catchers defensive abilities (defense, calling a game, throwing out runners, etc..) weigh more than their offensive abilities....surely there is ONE great catcher in the history of baseball? Who came the closest?

Johnny Bench came those closest with a pWAR (5 years) of 7.2.[/quote:1wdpx92a]
You can't round up?

I would think that a 7.2 for a C would equate to a 9.2 for an OF/1B....no?

 

[hofautos]

[quote="Chris Levy":2lgauz8u]

Where is Jeff Kent on the 2B rankings?

You have to understand that I have not entered every 2B in the history of the game into my formula, but if Jeff Kent were added to the current list of HOF second basemen it would look like this. I've also added Biggio for this example.

pWAR 8.0+ (MVP)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Robinson, Jackie
Gehringer, Charlie

pWAR 5.0+ (All-Star)
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne
Gordon, Joe
Alomar, Roberto
Biggio, Craig
Kent, Jeff
Herman, Billy
Fox, Nellie
Lazzeri, Tony
Doerr, Bobby
Evers, Johnny

pWAR 2.0+ (Starter)
McPhee, Bid
Schoendienst, Red
Mazeroski, Bill

Can i see 10 year numbers? Would that move Alomar above sandberg? And what are the actual war values, how close are they?

I don't have full data entered for 2B yet.

This is an "incomplete" 10 year ranking of 2B

WAR 8.0+ MVP (10 yrs)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie

WAR 5.0+ All-Star (10 yrs)
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Gehringer, Charlie
Robinson, Jackie
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne

As for the individual numbers. Once I complete the testing phase my complete data will be published online and made available (at no charge) to everyone interested.

Because I respond to my critics, rather than insult them, I will be including a 7 and 10 year matrix in addition to my preferred 5 year one. But, this of course will take time.[/quote:2lgauz8u]

laughing at the "critic" stuff.

Anyway, I think i would like a 7 year matrix, and then bonus points added for milestones, and then I could be comfortable. Does WAR use any bonus points for milestones, in a similar way that they subtract points for different positions? I still would like to know how HOF MONITOR puts Koufax way higher than Gaylord when it uses career numbers....maybe whatever that weight is, could be used to modify WAR, for a more accurate picture.

 

[Guest]

[quote="Chris Levy":axv5qp70]Catchers
5 years: 0 'great' players
7 years: 0 'great' players
10 years: 0 'great' players

Based on? I think that a catchers defensive abilities (defense, calling a game, throwing out runners, etc..) weigh more than their offensive abilities....surely there is ONE great catcher in the history of baseball? Who came the closest?

Johnny Bench came those closest with a pWAR (5 years) of 7.2.

You can't round up?

I would think that a 7.2 for a C would equate to a 9.2 for an OF/1B....no?[/quote:axv5qp70]

WAR is already adjusted for position. WAR is presented with one decimal, meaning 1.9 rather than 2.0. I'm just being consistent, as "high" is 8 and "low" is 2 ... the decimals tell volumes.

 

[hofautos]

[quote="Chris Levy":2bvjhiiz]Catchers
5 years: 0 'great' players
7 years: 0 'great' players
10 years: 0 'great' players

Based on? I think that a catchers defensive abilities (defense, calling a game, throwing out runners, etc..) weigh more than their offensive abilities....surely there is ONE great catcher in the history of baseball? Who came the closest?

Johnny Bench came those closest with a pWAR (5 years) of 7.2.

You can't round up?

I would think that a 7.2 for a C would equate to a 9.2 for an OF/1B....no?[/quote:2bvjhiiz]

Agreed, If they can subtract points for some positions, they should be able to modify the formula to DEFINE great catchers...this is ludicrous, surely they need a method to define great catchers :|

 

[Guest]

[quote="Chris Levy":1fdacc5h]

Where is Jeff Kent on the 2B rankings?

You have to understand that I have not entered every 2B in the history of the game into my formula, but if Jeff Kent were added to the current list of HOF second basemen it would look like this. I've also added Biggio for this example.

pWAR 8.0+ (MVP)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Robinson, Jackie
Gehringer, Charlie

pWAR 5.0+ (All-Star)
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne
Gordon, Joe
Alomar, Roberto
Biggio, Craig
Kent, Jeff
Herman, Billy
Fox, Nellie
Lazzeri, Tony
Doerr, Bobby
Evers, Johnny

pWAR 2.0+ (Starter)
McPhee, Bid
Schoendienst, Red
Mazeroski, Bill

Can i see 10 year numbers? Would that move Alomar above sandberg? And what are the actual war values, how close are they?

I don't have full data entered for 2B yet.

This is an "incomplete" 10 year ranking of 2B

WAR 8.0+ MVP (10 yrs)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie

WAR 5.0+ All-Star (10 yrs)
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Gehringer, Charlie
Robinson, Jackie
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne

As for the individual numbers. Once I complete the testing phase my complete data will be published online and made available (at no charge) to everyone interested.

Because I respond to my critics, rather than insult them, I will be including a 7 and 10 year matrix in addition to my preferred 5 year one. But, this of course will take time.

laughing at the "critic" stuff.

Anyway, I think i would like a 7 year matrix, and then bonus points added for milestones, and then I could be comfortable. Does WAR use any bonus points for milestones, in a similar way that they subtract points for different positions? I still would like to know how HOF MONITOR puts Koufax way higher than Gaylord when it uses career numbers....maybe whatever that weight is, could be used to modify WAR, for a more accurate picture.[/quote:1fdacc5h]

The problem is to you a milestone is 3,000 hits or 500 home runs for a position player. Rogers Hornsby retired with 2,930 hits. You're telling me The Rajah wouldn't have hung on half a season more to pick up 3k if it had meant something? Sisler retired with 2,812 hits at only 37. He could have gotten to 3,300 if anyone had told him it mattered.

Lou Gehrig hit 493 home runs. You're telling me that if he had hit just seven more ... seven ... a magic switch gets flipped and he becomes a "greater" player?

Do you have any idea how ridiculus these milestones truely are?

Do you know why 3,000 hits are a big deal? Roberto Clemente. He died tragically doing humanitarian work with 3,000 hits. Everyone mourned him and wanted to elevate him into the pantheon of all-time greats. So suddenly everyone went around and said "3,000 hit club, Clemente's in!!!!! yaaaaay!!!!!" That's literally how it happened.

It does nothing for me.

 

[hofautos]

[quote="Chris Levy":v7j2p7pn]

[quote="Chris Levy":v7j2p7pn]

Where is Jeff Kent on the 2B rankings?

You have to understand that I have not entered every 2B in the history of the game into my formula, but if Jeff Kent were added to the current list of HOF second basemen it would look like this. I've also added Biggio for this example.

pWAR 8.0+ (MVP)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Robinson, Jackie
Gehringer, Charlie

pWAR 5.0+ (All-Star)
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne
Gordon, Joe
Alomar, Roberto
Biggio, Craig
Kent, Jeff
Herman, Billy
Fox, Nellie
Lazzeri, Tony
Doerr, Bobby
Evers, Johnny

pWAR 2.0+ (Starter)
McPhee, Bid
Schoendienst, Red
Mazeroski, Bill

Can i see 10 year numbers? Would that move Alomar above sandberg? And what are the actual war values, how close are they?

I don't have full data entered for 2B yet.

This is an "incomplete" 10 year ranking of 2B

WAR 8.0+ MVP (10 yrs)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie

WAR 5.0+ All-Star (10 yrs)
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Gehringer, Charlie
Robinson, Jackie
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne

As for the individual numbers. Once I complete the testing phase my complete data will be published online and made available (at no charge) to everyone interested.

Because I respond to my critics, rather than insult them, I will be including a 7 and 10 year matrix in addition to my preferred 5 year one. But, this of course will take time.

laughing at the "critic" stuff.

Anyway, I think i would like a 7 year matrix, and then bonus points added for milestones, and then I could be comfortable. Does WAR use any bonus points for milestones, in a similar way that they subtract points for different positions? I still would like to know how HOF MONITOR puts Koufax way higher than Gaylord when it uses career numbers....maybe whatever that weight is, could be used to modify WAR, for a more accurate picture.[/quote:v7j2p7pn]

The problem is to you a milestone is 3,000 hits or 500 home runs for a position player. Rogers Hornsby retired with 2,930 hits. You're telling me The Rajah wouldn't have hung on half a season more to pick up 3k if it had meant something? Sisler retired with 2,812 hits at only 37. He could have gotten to 3,300 if anyone had told him it mattered.

Lou Gehrig hit 493 home runs. You're telling me that if he had hit just seven more ... seven ... a magic switch gets flipped and he becomes a "greater" player?

Do you have any idea how ridiculus these milestones truely are?

Do you know why 3,000 hits are a big deal? Roberto Clemente. He died tragically doing humanitarian work with 3,000 hits. Everyone mourned him and wanted to elevate him into the pantheon of all-time greats. So suddenly everyone went around and said "3,000 hit club, Clemente's in!!!!! yaaaaay!!!!!" That's literally how it happened.

It does nothing for me.[/quote:v7j2p7pn]
i shouldn't have used that term...i mean like i know hof monitor adds points for every so many hits, etc...I dont think they add for the milestones itself, but x amount of hits or hr towards those milestones.

but to say they are ridiculous i dont agree with either....there is a big thrill for both the players and the fans when big milesones are reached. They also are important because they provide goals and incentives to the players.

 

[Guest]

[quote="Chris Levy":em776euh]

[quote="Chris Levy":em776euh]

Where is Jeff Kent on the 2B rankings?

You have to understand that I have not entered every 2B in the history of the game into my formula, but if Jeff Kent were added to the current list of HOF second basemen it would look like this. I've also added Biggio for this example.

pWAR 8.0+ (MVP)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Robinson, Jackie
Gehringer, Charlie

pWAR 5.0+ (All-Star)
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne
Gordon, Joe
Alomar, Roberto
Biggio, Craig
Kent, Jeff
Herman, Billy
Fox, Nellie
Lazzeri, Tony
Doerr, Bobby
Evers, Johnny

pWAR 2.0+ (Starter)
McPhee, Bid
Schoendienst, Red
Mazeroski, Bill

Can i see 10 year numbers? Would that move Alomar above sandberg? And what are the actual war values, how close are they?

I don't have full data entered for 2B yet.

This is an "incomplete" 10 year ranking of 2B

WAR 8.0+ MVP (10 yrs)
Hornsby, Rogers
Collins, Eddie

WAR 5.0+ All-Star (10 yrs)
Morgan, Joe
Lajoie, Nap
Gehringer, Charlie
Robinson, Jackie
Frisch, Frankie
Sandberg, Ryne

As for the individual numbers. Once I complete the testing phase my complete data will be published online and made available (at no charge) to everyone interested.

Because I respond to my critics, rather than insult them, I will be including a 7 and 10 year matrix in addition to my preferred 5 year one. But, this of course will take time.

laughing at the "critic" stuff.

Anyway, I think i would like a 7 year matrix, and then bonus points added for milestones, and then I could be comfortable. Does WAR use any bonus points for milestones, in a similar way that they subtract points for different positions? I still would like to know how HOF MONITOR puts Koufax way higher than Gaylord when it uses career numbers....maybe whatever that weight is, could be used to modify WAR, for a more accurate picture.

The problem is to you a milestone is 3,000 hits or 500 home runs for a position player. Rogers Hornsby retired with 2,930 hits. You're telling me The Rajah wouldn't have hung on half a season more to pick up 3k if it had meant something? Sisler retired with 2,812 hits at only 37. He could have gotten to 3,300 if anyone had told him it mattered.

Lou Gehrig hit 493 home runs. You're telling me that if he had hit just seven more ... seven ... a magic switch gets flipped and he becomes a "greater" player?

Do you have any idea how ridiculus these milestones truely are?

Do you know why 3,000 hits are a big deal? Roberto Clemente. He died tragically doing humanitarian work with 3,000 hits. Everyone mourned him and wanted to elevate him into the pantheon of all-time greats. So suddenly everyone went around and said "3,000 hit club, Clemente's in!!!!! yaaaaay!!!!!" That's literally how it happened.

It does nothing for me.[/quote:em776euh]
i shouldn't have used that term...i mean like i know hof monitor adds points for every so many hits, etc...I dont think they add for the milestones itself, but x amount of hits or hr towards those milestones.

but to say they are ridiculous i dont agree with either....there is a big thrill for both the players and the fans when big milesones are reached. They also are important because they provide goals and incentives to the players.[/quote:em776euh]

They are a big thrill for players and fans in the past 30 years. Unfortunately, there was 100 years of organized professional baseball before that where it wasn't noteworthy. You're making the mistake you are with longevity. You're applying the milestones and standards of the modern era, and attempting to apply them to the entire history of the game. This simply does not work.

You've heard of the 500 HR Club, the 3,000 Hit Club, the 300 Win Club. Well, now you can say you've heard of the pWAR 8.0+ club. That's a player who has over a five year span averaged MVP/Cy Young caliber numbers. You'll find all 52 of the players on the very first post of this thread.

 

[pigskincardboard]

This is really starting to bug me. I'm glad other people have spoken up.

What exactly are we trying to establish again? What question are we trying to answer? I think we should get on this before anything else, because right now this survey answers little more than "Which players had the best top 5 seasons, according to WAR"

I'm glad you asked. I'll do my best to answer.

I believe the following:
1. WAR is the best measure of a player's individual season.
2. That a 'great' season is defined as a WAR 8.0+.
3. That career WAR cannot be used to rank players, because each player compiled their career WAR with a different number of games played.
4. That you can only compare two (or more) players using an equal sample size.

With these believes I wished to develop a variation of war called p(eak)WAR, which I hoped would serve as a tool to rank players based on their performance using an equal number of seasons, rather than varying career lengths.

Using the members of the baseball HOF as my starting point I discovered the following:

Pitchers
5 years: 21 'great' players
7 years: 12 'great' players
10 years: 5 'great' players

Catchers
5 years: 0 'great' players
7 years: 0 'great' players
10 years: 0 'great' players

Infielders
5 years: 19 'great' players
7 years: 10 'great' players
10 years: 3 'great' players

Outfielders
5 years: 13 'great' players
7 years: 9 'great' players
10 years: 8 'great' players

In addition, I found 35 players in the Hall of Fame whose 5 best seasons produced a WAR below 5.0 (All-Star). That means that at least 35 members of the Hall of Fame would not even be statistically considered All-Stars over a five year span, let alone MVP/Cy Young candidates. At 10 years I found that 33%, a full 1/3rd of inductees, of the members of the Hall of Fame produced a WAR below 5.0 (All-Star), which would disqualify them as candidates given modern interpretations.

Therefore, I felt that 5 years represented the best statistic interpretation of a player's prime, keeping in mind it would include careers from as far back as 1876, with many injury/death/war shortened careers unlike the typically long careers of the modern era.

Using their five best statistical seasons an average WAR (which I call pWAR) was created for the purpose of ranking the players as they were in their prime, rather than the entirety of their career.

It is my opinion that a player should be judged by their best against others at their best, rather than a varying length career against another varying length of career. My formula sought to (and I feel did) accomplish this.

Can I ask what the highest level of formal math education you attained? I don't want to be... mean... if you're doing this simply as a hobby. If you're doing this as a project with 6 years of statistics education, I will be mean.

You are not measuring anything other than...

who has the five best seasons.

Instead of randomly guessing that 8.0 WAR is a peak, why not calculate the distribution?

This genuinely bugs me because you've addressed a problem: compilers. To solve this problem, you've proposed that everything other than a player's top-5 years should not even be considered.

I think eliminating 50-75% of a player's career is a far worse sin than assigning improper accolades on career longevity.

 

[Guest]

This is really starting to bug me. I'm glad other people have spoken up.

What exactly are we trying to establish again? What question are we trying to answer? I think we should get on this before anything else, because right now this survey answers little more than "Which players had the best top 5 seasons, according to WAR"

I'm glad you asked. I'll do my best to answer.

I believe the following:
1. WAR is the best measure of a player's individual season.
2. That a 'great' season is defined as a WAR 8.0+.
3. That career WAR cannot be used to rank players, because each player compiled their career WAR with a different number of games played.
4. That you can only compare two (or more) players using an equal sample size.

With these believes I wished to develop a variation of war called p(eak)WAR, which I hoped would serve as a tool to rank players based on their performance using an equal number of seasons, rather than varying career lengths.

Using the members of the baseball HOF as my starting point I discovered the following:

Pitchers
5 years: 21 'great' players
7 years: 12 'great' players
10 years: 5 'great' players

Catchers
5 years: 0 'great' players
7 years: 0 'great' players
10 years: 0 'great' players

Infielders
5 years: 19 'great' players
7 years: 10 'great' players
10 years: 3 'great' players

Outfielders
5 years: 13 'great' players
7 years: 9 'great' players
10 years: 8 'great' players

In addition, I found 35 players in the Hall of Fame whose 5 best seasons produced a WAR below 5.0 (All-Star). That means that at least 35 members of the Hall of Fame would not even be statistically considered All-Stars over a five year span, let alone MVP/Cy Young candidates. At 10 years I found that 33%, a full 1/3rd of inductees, of the members of the Hall of Fame produced a WAR below 5.0 (All-Star), which would disqualify them as candidates given modern interpretations.

Therefore, I felt that 5 years represented the best statistic interpretation of a player's prime, keeping in mind it would include careers from as far back as 1876, with many injury/death/war shortened careers unlike the typically long careers of the modern era.

Using their five best statistical seasons an average WAR (which I call pWAR) was created for the purpose of ranking the players as they were in their prime, rather than the entirety of their career.

It is my opinion that a player should be judged by their best against others at their best, rather than a varying length career against another varying length of career. My formula sought to (and I feel did) accomplish this.

Can I ask what the highest level of formal math education you attained? I don't want to be... mean... if you're doing this simply as a hobby. If you're doing this as a project with 6 years of statistics education, I will be mean.

You are not measuring anything other than...

who has the five best seasons.

Instead of randomly guessing that 8.0 WAR is a peak, why not calculate the distribution?

This genuinely bugs me because you've addressed a problem: compilers. To solve this problem, you've proposed that everything other than a player's top-5 years should not even be considered.

I think eliminating 50-75% of a player's career is a far worse sin than assigning improper accolades on career longevity.

4 years of statistics and Excel courses as part of a business program at the State University of New York.

I did not randomly guess that 8.0 WAR is 'peak.' The creator of WAR assigned the following values 8.0+ MVP, 5.0+ All-Star, 2.0+ Starter, -2.0 Replacement. I am simply following his proven model.

Do you believe that you can compare 2 (or more) players accurately using a different number of seasons for each player? If the answer to this question is yes, we are fundamentally at cross purposes and I doubt common ground can be reached as this is the fundamental motive of my equation.

I look at it this way. In certain "Olympic" sports an athlete is given a certain number of attemps, and then the lowest scores are thrown out and they are judged by their best. I like that approach. That's essentially what I've done.