Approximate Premium of BGS Graded Razor Autographs?

[Incline Investments]

04 Elites had a pretty solid premium for 9.5s, and I think these are fairly similar (condition-wise) to those.

Actually, this year is reminding me a LOT of 2004 in terms of prospect products.

I think you are right on, the buy in prices, the variety of products and cards avaialble for players..


in 2006 people made a heckuva a lot of money of 2004 products

That's for sure!

Should be a fun next couple of years.

 

[masonphillip]

At first, I do not think you will see any real premium as it will be too early to tell just how many are going to grade what. After several months and many graded cards pop, it will be easier to tell whats really going on and premiums will self level.

Right now, it's all guess work. Sure, your case may have been chipped to hell, and even thoes who you talked to but there are many cases out there, which may have perfect copies. Has brian confirmed EVERY case was produced with the same chipped cards or are you assuming all are just as bad as yours, and perhaps thoes who you talked too??


Eithor way, only time will tell as more and more get graded.

Everyone I've talked to, my 6, Jim's 10, JP, Jcmints 4, NECs 1, Andrews team breaks have all had chipping just the same way.

Which means there is still how many cases unacounted for as for chipping?


I kinda assumed someone was going to say "everyone i talked to........" but its still just a small sample. Although it may turn out correct and widespread, just taking the word of a few that are selling the product would be foolish. What did you find wrong with my statment below?

At first, I do not think you will see any real premium as it will be too early to tell just how many are going to grade what. After several months and many graded cards pop, it will be easier to tell whats really going on and premiums will self level.

Or did you just want to make people believe you know everything allready?

I actually think the sample isn't bad, it is 24 cases, better than 1% of the print run and the cases have come from different sources etc so I'm not just going to assume that somewhere out there, there are golden copies of these things. Generally in my grading experience (3000 plus cards subbed) sets go one way or the other and they go together. They are uniform whether it is for better or for worse. So i'll stand by my "this is the way they'll likely be" until I see a small bit of evidence to persuade me otherwise.

Not sure what you are really trying to say by asking "what did you find wrong with my statement." I don't know if I found anything wrong with it but generally for prospect releases the best premiums are seen shortly after release for 9.5s (when the masses are still looking for the product) and thereafter only when the prospect gets hot, just for the individual cards.

My Point was encased in the "what did you find wrong with this statment" quote which was the notable theme of my post you avoided to comment on origonally. Being, until more time passes, many are graded and a bigger picture is gathered, I think it a bit premature trying to figure out a premium for precieved scarcity. Which I believe to be pretty hard to disagree with logicly. But then again, I am not sitting on any, I am not selling or slabbing any so that may be why...

Not to nitpick but you said #1 - "What did you find wrong with this statement" and #2 - "Or did you just want to make people believe you know everything allready?" That is a far cry from, "your thoughts?"

I agree, it will take some time for the larger picture to be figured out, however that may be loosely defined. However, people will try and figure it out before then, because slabbed and unslabbed cards are selling and will continue to sell before it has come into perspective.

I do not find it too premature to speculate on percieved scarcity of 9.5s though. I think JP made the same point that many others who have seen/bought/sold singles will, these cards are in rough shape. We've seen it before, USA, Elite etc. The results have been the same, it is not too hard to extrapolate this scenario to the current Razor situation. It is likely the same thing will occur, is it 100% for sure? Nope.

 

[masonphillip]

[quote="Incline Investments":1rjjmgh2]04 Elites had a pretty solid premium for 9.5s, and I think these are fairly similar (condition-wise) to those.

Actually, this year is reminding me a LOT of 2004 in terms of prospect products.

I think you are right on, the buy in prices, the variety of products and cards avaialble for players..


in 2006 people made a heckuva a lot of money of 2004 products

It ought to be interesting, if you have #1 - faith that the economy will turn around in the next few years (thus hobby spending rises) #2 - the risk tolerance to hold cards in the face of a nasty recession and #3 - some prospects play well during that time....you could be in for a treat

That's for sure!

Should be a fun next couple of years. [/quote:1rjjmgh2]

 

[Incline Investments]

[quote="Incline Investments":1fcb0fww]04 Elites had a pretty solid premium for 9.5s, and I think these are fairly similar (condition-wise) to those.

Actually, this year is reminding me a LOT of 2004 in terms of prospect products.

I think you are right on, the buy in prices, the variety of products and cards avaialble for players..


in 2006 people made a heckuva a lot of money of 2004 products

That's for sure!

Should be a fun next couple of years.

It ought to be interesting, if you have #1 - faith that the economy will turn around in the next few years (thus hobby spending rises) #2 - the risk tolerance to hold cards in the face of a nasty recession and #3 - some prospects play well during that time....you could be in for a treat [/quote:1fcb0fww]

Very true. I think a lot of card that are selling low now could be big cards by next year, especially with the economy hopefully picking back up.

 

[masonphillip]

[quote="Incline Investments":29dsis1a]

[quote="Incline Investments":29dsis1a]04 Elites had a pretty solid premium for 9.5s, and I think these are fairly similar (condition-wise) to those.

Actually, this year is reminding me a LOT of 2004 in terms of prospect products.

I think you are right on, the buy in prices, the variety of products and cards avaialble for players..


in 2006 people made a heckuva a lot of money of 2004 products

That's for sure!

Should be a fun next couple of years.

It ought to be interesting, if you have #1 - faith that the economy will turn around in the next few years (thus hobby spending rises) #2 - the risk tolerance to hold cards in the face of a nasty recession and #3 - some prospects play well during that time....you could be in for a treat [/quote:29dsis1a]

Very true. I think a lot of card that are selling low now could be big cards by next year, especially with the economy hopefully picking back up.[/quote:29dsis1a]

There are certainly big prospect autographs to be had for cheap, there is no doubt about that.

On the other side, there is tons of doubt about the economy, most projections right now are for things to start getting better in the second half of 2009. However...the same thing was said about the second half of 2008. I've not studied any data either but I think there is a lag, for a while, even with signs getting better, people are still scared...and they don't spend as much (hopefully they've learned). Then, some time after that, hobby spending and other such discretionary goods really starts to rise again.

 

[Incline Investments]

[quote="Incline Investments":2s6e32f4]

[quote="Incline Investments":2s6e32f4]04 Elites had a pretty solid premium for 9.5s, and I think these are fairly similar (condition-wise) to those.

Actually, this year is reminding me a LOT of 2004 in terms of prospect products.

I think you are right on, the buy in prices, the variety of products and cards avaialble for players..


in 2006 people made a heckuva a lot of money of 2004 products

That's for sure!

Should be a fun next couple of years.

It ought to be interesting, if you have #1 - faith that the economy will turn around in the next few years (thus hobby spending rises) #2 - the risk tolerance to hold cards in the face of a nasty recession and #3 - some prospects play well during that time....you could be in for a treat

Very true. I think a lot of card that are selling low now could be big cards by next year, especially with the economy hopefully picking back up.[/quote:2s6e32f4]

There are certainly big prospect autographs to be had for cheap, there is no doubt about that.

On the other side, there is tons of doubt about the economy, most projections right now are for things to start getting better in the second half of 2009. However...the same thing was said about the second half of 2008. I've not studied any data either but I think there is a lag, for a while, even with signs getting better, people are still scared...and they don't spend as much (hopefully they've learned). Then, some time after that, hobby spending and other such discretionary goods really starts to rise again.[/quote:2s6e32f4]

Yeah, I hear you. But like you said, with patience and capital to invest now, payoffs could be big.

Even with a down economy, there is always money to be made, buying the right guys and selling at the right time.

 

[masonphillip]

[quote="Incline Investments":2rqs1y2a]

[quote="Incline Investments":2rqs1y2a]

[quote="Incline Investments":2rqs1y2a]04 Elites had a pretty solid premium for 9.5s, and I think these are fairly similar (condition-wise) to those.

Actually, this year is reminding me a LOT of 2004 in terms of prospect products.

I think you are right on, the buy in prices, the variety of products and cards avaialble for players..


in 2006 people made a heckuva a lot of money of 2004 products

That's for sure!

Should be a fun next couple of years.

It ought to be interesting, if you have #1 - faith that the economy will turn around in the next few years (thus hobby spending rises) #2 - the risk tolerance to hold cards in the face of a nasty recession and #3 - some prospects play well during that time....you could be in for a treat

Very true. I think a lot of card that are selling low now could be big cards by next year, especially with the economy hopefully picking back up.[/quote:2rqs1y2a]

There are certainly big prospect autographs to be had for cheap, there is no doubt about that.

On the other side, there is tons of doubt about the economy, most projections right now are for things to start getting better in the second half of 2009. However...the same thing was said about the second half of 2008. I've not studied any data either but I think there is a lag, for a while, even with signs getting better, people are still scared...and they don't spend as much (hopefully they've learned). Then, some time after that, hobby spending and other such discretionary goods really starts to rise again.[/quote:2rqs1y2a]

Yeah, I hear you. But like you said, with patience and capital to invest now, payoffs could be big.

Even with a down economy, there is always money to be made, buying the right guys and selling at the right time.[/quote:2rqs1y2a]

Yes.

I think Warren Buffet said something to the effect of when there is blood on the streets there is money to be made. He's right. I think that's what he was going for with his Goldman investment...so far...nada so good. lol.