Are Stolen Bases a thing of the past?

[craiger122003]

Not really Leaf I think the stolen base is a thing of the past. Much like your company.

 

[Leaf]

Craiger, you are a funny bird..

For a thing of the past, we seem do be doing pretty good for humble little family business...

BG

 

[Topnotchsy]

I think a number of smaller factors added up to the drop:

Carl Crawford only had 117 at-bats
Jacoby Ellabury had around 300

Guys like Jose Reyes are getting a little older and likely slowing. Juan Pierre is both aging and had under 400 at bats.

A guy like Billy Hamilton could easily spark a return of the SB as people are reminded just how disruptive it can be to the pitcher. (Actually id love too see data on how a potential base stealer impacts the pitcher... I wonder if it really does anything.)

 

[toadfan106]

This thread got me curious so I decided to run the numbers and I was a little surprised. Since 2009, the MLB average is about .88 SB attempts per game, up from .81 per game from 2000-2008. It may not seem like a huge number, but it is about an 8.5% increase. At the same time the success rate increased from 70.5% to 72.7% for those periods. The heyday of the SB seems to be between 1974 and 1999 where you saw about 1.09 SB a game, but the success rate was 67.3%. From 1961 to 1973 there were about .7 SB a game. It makes sense. Right about 1974 you saw an increase in the number of stadia that were turf based rather than natural grass and the parks were huge, a disincentive to hitting home runs. The trend reversed itself in the steroid era when parks became smaller. I used the bands that I did specifically since it seems like there was a huge swing in the numbers the first year of each of those bands.

While what we are seeing is not the golden era of the SB, it is far from becoming a thing of the past, especially since teams are being smarter about using it. I would much rather see my team run less with a higher percentage of success anyway. Nothing will kill an inning quicker than a caught stealing.

I have the league numbers from 1961 - 2012 if anyone cares enough to take a look.

 

[Russ S.]

No.

- Nate McClouth

 

[Russ S.]

Or... players are just skered!

The O's have allowed only 10 stolen bases this year, least in the AL.
With Matt Wieters behind the plate, opposing runners are attempting to run once every 20.7 innings, and succeeding once every 44 innings.

In 2011, Matt Wieters won a Gold Glove. Runners attempted a steal once every 12.5 innings. They succeeded once every 19.8 innings.
In 2012, Matt Wieters won a Gold Glove. Runners attempted a steal once every 14.3 innings. They succeeded once every 23.3 innings.

This year, runners are attempting a steal on Wieters once every 20.7 innings. They are succeeding once every 44 innings. Basically, one successful steal every five games.

In other words, teams have almost given up completely trying to run on Wieters. I don't know whether it's because he's just so good (53% CS rate this year), or whether Buck's TTTP obsession has just made it impossible for other teams to run.

 

[Hendersonfan]

Hamilton has caught Rickey's eye and I think he (Rickey) would be happy to give him (Billy) some tips.

 

[BiggioBrooks755]

Yes...Also giving effort is a thing of the past too minus Bryce Harper

 

[kerryfan5]

The answer is? Bring back Rickey. He could play for Houston.