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BGS analysis of a single Bowman Chrome card

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leatherman

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The card discussed in this topic is the 2004 Bowman Chrome Draft AFLAC redemption card of Chris Volstad (AFL6). I redeemed 40 of these sets myself, so I started with 40 copies of this card. I made a deal with Jaypers and acquired 161 more in a deal about 2 years ago, so my total accumulation of this card was 201 copies.

I have submitted literally thousands of cards to BGS over the years. Before I send them anything, I must first weed out the cards which I feel have zero chance of becoming a 9.5. The BGS grading algorithm is such that any card receiving an 8.5 in ANY subgrade cannot receive an overall grade of 9.5 (unless you have three 10 subgrades, which is EXTREMELY rare on a card with an 8.5 subgrade). So, the goal is to eliminate any card where you feel the subgrade has no chance of receiving a 9. Even though a card with two 9 subgrades cannot be a 9.5, I will still submit a card like this because my experience dictates that occasionally these cards will still end up in 9.5 slabs. Each grader is different, and it is worth the chance (in my opinion).

My selection process for Chrome cards goes like this:
1. Stack the cards in piles of 20-25 cards to scrutinize the edges of the cards. It is often difficult to tell little ripples and ridges in the cards when they are by themselves. Seeing them in a stack where they should be flat makes this easier.
2. Now, look at the centering on the front of the card. Criteria for a 9 centering subgrade states that a card must have at least 55/45 centering both ways (top to bottom, and left to right). Cards with no discernible "frame" to the photo are often difficult to determine. When in doubt, submit anyway.
3. Next, check the corners on the BACK of the card. After the tens of thousands of BC cards to go through my hands, I have seen maybe 10 cards that didn't have 9.5 corners on the front. The back is a different story, particularly the bottom corners (for some unknown reason). More cards receive a BGS 9 for the bottom back corners than any other reason. There should be no white showing on these corners. Cards with white borders on the back are more difficult to determine. Make sure you are looking at them in good light. NOTHING is better than sunlight to inspect cards.
4. Inspect the surfaces of the card. Chrome surfaces will often have dimples, which look like someone took a straight pin and poked the surface of the card. Reject these. Additionally, cards with holograms are stuck there with a gummy glue. This glue will often bleed out from under the sticker. This bleeding usually doesn't affect the area on the bleeding card too much, but this glue gets on the rollers that moves the cards along in their production. You will often find two roller streaks of residue on the backs of chrome cards which needs to be removed. These run vertically on the the back of the card. Then, wipe the chrome surface with a microfiber lens cleaning cloth. Most fabrics (including a cotton T-shirt) can scratch the surface. Don't risk it. Spend a couple of bucks and get a cloth which you use exclusively for cleaning your chrome cards.
5. Take your now smaller stack of cards and look at the chrome surface once again in sunlight and look for scratches. These are tough to see without sunlight. One small scratch is permissible. Multiple small scratches are not.

In the case of my 201 Volstad chromes, only 79 were deemed submission worthy. Of these, 56 were slabbed under the 9.5 minimum guidelines. Here is how they break down (Centering, Corners, Edges, Surface):
1 BGS 10 (10, 10, 9.5, 10)
1 BGS 9.5 (9.5, 9.5, 10, 10)
1 BGS 9.5 (10, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5)
1 BGS 9.5 (9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 10)
1 BGS 9.5 (9.5, 9.5, 10, 9.5)
14 BGS 9.5s (9.5 x 4)
11 BGS 9.5s (9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5) - 9 centering subgrade
16 BGS 9.5s (9.5, 9, 9.5, 9.5) - 9 corners subgrade
1 BGS 9.5 (9.5, 9.5, 9, 9.5) - 9 edges subgrade
2 BGS 9.5s (9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9) - 9 surface subgrade
1 BGS 9.5 (9, 9.5, 10, 9.5) - 9 centering subgrade
3 BGS 9.5s (9, 9.5, 9.5, 10) - 9 centering subgrade
1 BGS 9.5 (9.5, 9, 10, 9.5) - 9 corners subgrade
1 BGS 9.5 (9.5, 9, 9.5, 10) - 9 corners subgrade
1 BGS 9.5 (10, 9.5, 9.5, 9) - 9 surface subgrade


15 subgrades were Pristine 10s of 224 total subgrades (6.7% of subgrades)
3 of the 15 Pristine 10 subgrades were for centering (20% of the Pristine 10 subgrades)
1 of the 15 Pristine 10 subgrades were for corners (6.7%)
4 of the 15 Pristine 10 subgrades were for edges (26.7 %)
7 of the 15 Pristine 10 subgrades were for surfaces (46.7%)

37 subgrades were Mint 9s of 224 total subgrades (16.5%)
15 of the 37 mint 9 subgrades were for centering (40.5% of all the mint 9 subgrades)
18 of the 37 mint 9 subgrades were for corners (48.6%)
1 of the 37 mint 9 subgrades were for edges (2.7%)
3 of the 37 mint 9 subgrades were for surfaces (8.1%)

172 of the 224 subgrades were 9.5 (76.8%)

1 BGS 10 = 1.8% of slabs = 0.5% of initial 201 cards
19 True Gems (all subgrades are 9.5 or higher) = 33.9% of slabs = 9.5% of initial 201 cards

As you can see, it is much easier to get 9.5 (or 10) subgrades on the edges or surface. Only 4 cards that were slabbed received a Mint 9 subgrade on the edges or surface, and 73.3% of the Pristine 10 subgrades were from either the edges or surface.

David
 

Mudcatsfan

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leatherman said:
The card discussed in this topic is the 2004 Bowman Chrome Draft AFLAC redemption card of Chris Volstad (AFL6). I redeemed 40 of these sets myself, so I started with 40 copies of this card. I made a deal with Jaypers and acquired 161 more in a deal about 2 years ago, so my total accumulation of this card was 201 copies.


David

Very interesting data.

Do you think the corners and centering received harsher treatment because they deserved it, or perhaps because its an easier flaw to see?

For me, centering and corners are the first two things i look for, perhaps graders do too.
 

promodeltodd

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David,

I am always amazed at the detailed data you provide when it comes to grading, no to mention the experiments and great submissions you do.

Nice job!
 

jcmint

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promodeltodd said:
David,

I am always amazed at the detailed data you provide when it comes to grading, no to mention the experiments and great submissions you do.

Nice job!

Yes David your subs are awesome...
 

leatherman

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Mudcatsfan said:
Very interesting data.

Do you think the corners and centering received harsher treatment because they deserved it, or perhaps because its an easier flaw to see?

The BGS grading criteria for Mint 9 subgrades is as follows:

Mint 9
Centering: 55/45 both ways on front. 70/30 or better on back.
Corners: Mint upon close inspection. A speck of wear is allowed under intense scrutiny.
Edges: Virtually Mint to the naked eye. Unobtrusive specks of chipping on the borders are allowed.
Surface: A handful of printing specks or one minor spot. Very minor focus or color imperfections. Clean gloss with one or two tiny scratches barely noticeable to the naked eye. One faint, unobtrusive metallic print line is allowed.


Note that the corners must be "Mint upon close inspection", which means under 10x magnification. Edges are "virtually Mint to the naked eye." Translation: corners must be nicer than edges to get the same subgrade, as it not only needs to be in better condition (mint vs virtually mint), but it is scrutinized under magnification rather than the naked eye.

As far as centering goes, anyone that busts wax can attest to the fact that cards centered 50/50 are gems in themselves. The smallest shift in the cutting process can move a card past 55/45 one way or the other, resulting in an 8.5 or worse centering subgrade. Because of this, I submit quite a few more borderline cards hoping that the centering will get at least a 9, and the other remaining subgrades will be 9.5s. With the surfaces and edges, it seems there are far fewer borderline cards: they are either gem mint, or it is quickly obvious that they are not.

d
 

WJCIII

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Mudcatsfan said:
leatherman said:
The card discussed in this topic is the 2004 Bowman Chrome Draft AFLAC redemption card of Chris Volstad (AFL6). I redeemed 40 of these sets myself, so I started with 40 copies of this card. I made a deal with Jaypers and acquired 161 more in a deal about 2 years ago, so my total accumulation of this card was 201 copies.


David

Very interesting data.

Do you think the corners and centering received harsher treatment because they deserved it, or perhaps because its an easier flaw to see?

For me, centering and corners are the first two things i look for, perhaps graders do too.

Centering and corners are weighed the heaviest in the BGS algorithm, as the pecking order goes centering, corners, edges, and surface. Looking at centering and corners first is a very good start.
 

leatherman

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I figured a scan was necessary:

tn_5920197.jpg
 

bouwob

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Mudcatsfan said:
theplasticman said:
Great information, thanks for sharing.

post thanked.


What's this thanks thing? Is that new?


look for a thank post image at the top of the post.
 

Mudcatsfan

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bouwob said:
Mudcatsfan said:
theplasticman said:
Great information, thanks for sharing.

post thanked.


What's this thanks thing? Is that new?


look for a thank post image at the top of the post.


I see the button, and the counter at the left, but i've never used this / heard of this before.

What's it good for?

street cred?
 

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