Bowman 2010 - better to bust in volume?

[Zithy]

I suppose this works for any BC case, so the year might not matter as it's all relative.

Buy say there's a hot year - 08 with Heyward autos or 10 with Strasburgs. Would you tend to have better odds of breaking even per case or per box? If there's 24 different autos, then a single box has a little over 4% chance of getting a certain player, but ripping a case would be a 50% chance.

So for those who rip multiple cases of BC, what amount do you recommend as the best odds for breaking even?

I don't really want to hear from others who say to buy singles instead. I realize that's an option. But strictly for busting cases, I'm curious. Multiple cases might give better opportunities to sell bulk lots of players but at the same risk of getting green cases and tanking.

 

[Wes]

I suppose this works for any BC case, so the year might not matter as it's all relative.

Buy say there's a hot year - 08 with Heyward autos or 10 with Strasburgs. Would you tend to have better odds of breaking even per case or per box? If there's 24 different autos, then a single box has a little over 4% chance of getting a certain player, but ripping a case would be a 50% chance.

So for those who rip multiple cases of BC, what amount do you recommend as the best odds for breaking even?

I don't really want to hear from others who say to buy singles instead. I realize that's an option. But strictly for busting cases, I'm curious. Multiple cases might give better opportunities to sell bulk lots of players but at the same risk of getting green cases and tanking.

At least five cases.

 

[smapdi]

I did a fairly serious breakdown of what the ROI would be on 1 jumbo case, and decided it's not worth it. I haven't really been a prospector since 2007, but unless I'm giving myself overly conservative estimates on what the average RC lot might sell for, or the quality of rookies in the set, you really have to have a significant case hit, like a name red ref or super or a blue level+ auto of Harper or Strasburg, or an unusually consistent batch of high-level prospect autos. Odds go up of a better hit the more you open, obviously, but just as obviously, it's not a linear progression. Current prices on ebay look like you could get a jumbo case for about $750 net, but I agree with LLWesMan that at least 5 cases, plus some luck, allow you enough likelihood to score a major hit along with enough of the good little cards to make it remotely worth it.

All this is predicated on selling pretty much immediately. If you rip just to have a stock of cards to watch for the next few years, that changes things considerably.

So I'm just going with 1-2 boxes and seeing what happens. Maybe holding a case or two till 2012-2013 is the safest, surest bet.