If you're talking about ROI, the first two shouldn't be on this list. Lindor might be my #1 guy, he's incredibly cheap and has star level ceiling. I'd put Bradley in that same group.
RyanW said:
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Keyser Soze
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Wes said:
Correct me if I am wrong, Wes, but it seems like some guys (you included) are putting too much emphasis solely on the net ROI, and too little emphasis on the probability of getting ANY return. While Profar may only net you a 15% ROI because of a high buy-in, that's still not a bad deal because he offers a higher probability of a return. I'd rather have a 70% chance of earning a 20% return on a $60 investment than only have a 5% chance of earning a 200% return on a $10 investment
padremurph
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- Aug 7, 2010
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Keyser Soze said:
Yea, everything so far from Padres camp has been that Cashner is super impressive. The only problem I have with buying Cashner is that he is slated to be a set up guy with the possibility of closing or starting next year. At that point, will anyone really care about a pitcher in San Diego unless he is putting up outrageous numbers?
He is super cheap though, I thought about buying some last week just because the buy in was so low.
Keyser Soze said:
I don't agree with the probabilities or ROI's that you've assigned as far as comparing a guy like Profar to a guy like Lindor, but even those hypothetical numbers are actually pretty close. I'd contend that the 5% chance on a $10 card would return a hell of a lot more than 200%. You're also leaving out the higher probabilities of mid-range returns. For example, there might be only a 5% chance that a $10 Lindor becomes worth $100, but there's also a 10% chance it reaches $50, a 50% chance it reaches $20 (which has already happened actually) and so on until you reach 100%
Here are the calculations for your hypothetical, which has exaggerated probabilities but still only a 4% higher expected return.
70% chance of 20% return on $60 investment = $8.40 expected value = +$.14 per dollar expected return.
5% chance of a 200% return on a $10 investment = $1 expected value = +$.10 per dollar expected return.
