Bowman Chrome Rookie/prospects

[brianga26]

So after a nice heated (sometimes) discussion with Gilmore a few weeks back I am under the impression that the hobby paradigm has shifted from base chrome rookies, to 1. parallels, blues, golds, oranges, reds, super 2. Autographed. That being said, what are the opinions on the boards? Do you in favor go for the parallels and bag the traditional Chrome Rookies? I have seen a shift in the past 3 to 4 years (see 2006 draft). 2005 draft was the last "good" year for base chrome it seems. 2006/2007/2008 chrome (both base chromes, and draft picks) have seem to crash and burn. Is that 1.over production 2. Desirability 3. Regulars being readily available..
Thought this would be a great discussion for a foggy Monday morning (well in the east)

 

[muchuckwagon]

First, I think you need to draw a line between collectors and prospectors (out to flip cards for profit).

As a prospector, it is easier to flip a handful of blue or gold refractors once a player gets hot compared to 100 chrome cards. With that being said, a prospector is going to chase refractors or autographs (if available).

At the end of the day, I think blue refractors offer the best return because they are more affordable to acquire and have a larger audience when you go to sell if a player's cards catch fire.

This board is a forum for prospectors to show off their high-end buys or pimp their prospect. With that in mind, a stash of 100 chrome cards is not sexy and face it, sex sells.

However, I know that there are some members sitting on very significant chrome stashes that exceed 100, 200 or even 500 cards of a single player....those stashes just don't get advertised.

 

[Messier2]

Just to clarify, are we talking about base chrome AUTOS or base chrome (no auto)?

 

[brianga26]

Non-auto. .sorry for the confusion..

 

[cgilmo]

non auto chromes are dying


this is because collectors now know that when a prospect hits they will just put out a chrome autograph

 

[brianga26]

Do you guys still think there is a market for Non-Autos?

 

[cgilmo]

Do you guys still think there is a market for Non-Autos?

i don't because collectors don't really care about first card anymore


it's now first chrome on card autograph

 

[Jaypers]

i don't because collectors don't really care about first card anymore


it's now first chrome on card autograph

[youtube:1hkyfv4v]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCF19cBWb0I[/youtube:1hkyfv4v]

 

[Messier2]

Do you guys still think there is a market for Non-Autos?

i don't because collectors don't really care about first card anymore


it's now first chrome on card autograph

And that's why I could never come up with a valid reason to buy a case of 2007 BDP...not sure why others are still buying this product.

 

[jbone17]

Gilmo is partly correct on this. I do not believe that Neftali Feliz had a chrome auto and his base parallels were selling for some nice coin. There could be a market if this is the case with a lot more players.

 

[brianga26]

so basically we are screwed if you buy the base?

 

[bradical]

I wish that Bowman Chrome baseball would take a page from their football and offer the cards in both a base/auto version.

 

[cgilmo]

so basically we are screwed if you buy the base?

well no, not really


If you buy the right players, you can profit off any card.

 

[brianga26]

So.. I am not screwed with Dex! haha

 

[cgilmo]

So.. I am not screwed with Dex! haha

Depends on when you bought Fowler.

If he reaches your projection for him you should do quite well with 06 chrome stuff. He does not have a chrome autograph, so you should be fine. He does have other autographs though that people will chase, this will detract from the 06 chrome sales.

It's supply and demand, and everything a player has that can be called a "rookie" fits in the supply pool.

 

[brianga26]

.40 on the dollar.. 145 in my closet.. so.. hell if he gets to $3 a pop... some profit. I like to collect base.. I guess b/c Autos are coming out 2 to 3 years later than the rookie (see Freeman). And the fact bowman seems to recycle the players..

On a side note. .really excited about Topps Debut..

 

[pigskincardboard]

The statement's both true and false, I suppose.

It seems as though the market currently lacks a great deal of perspective. It's really no different than any other investment in terms of cost/benefit analysis. The only difference is actual tangible space -- Large investments in base chrome just take up a huge chunk of space. The additional cost of shipping based on percentage of card's worth also factors in.

With that said, look at any card as an IPO. The difference between offering 5 shares to the public and 10K shares to the public is huge; However, they'll both increase at a pretty standard rate depending on the player and the availability of the shares/cards.

The majority of prospectors plan on selling their cards when a player catches fire. They're hardly ever holding cards for more than 3 years. THus, you get the apparent death of the base chrome rookie.

However, if you plan on holding onto the cards for the long run (which is almost never advisable unless someone becomes a god amongst men) then the base chrome should offer decent profits.

The problem is that the *ebay market* isn't big enough to support steady sales of any common card produced in the modern-modern era. However, if you're prepared to wait it out, you should see decent returns especially with the prices bottoming out.

The recession has really driven this point home because no one's buying cards that they can't flip if they have to. If someone needs money they want cards that they'll be able to liquidate immediately.

Liquidating long-term investments in any situation is an awful idea.

Ta-da, the death of the base chrome.

I don't know what they're selling for, but I'd assume there'd be a rather large market inefficiency right now if you had the cash to buy huge quantities and sit on them for a while. Even if you can't sit on them for 10 years, based on the talk going around here, you could probably make a decent percentage once the market corrects itself in a couple of years.

 

[brianga26]

The statement's both true and false, I suppose.

It seems as though the market currently lacks a great deal of perspective. It's really no different than any other investment in terms of cost/benefit analysis. The only difference is actual tangible space -- Large investments in base chrome just take up a huge chunk of space. The additional cost of shipping based on percentage of card's worth also factors in.

With that said, look at any card as an IPO. The difference between offering 5 shares to the public and 10K shares to the public is huge; However, they'll both increase at a pretty standard rate depending on the player and the availability of the shares/cards.

The majority of prospectors plan on selling their cards when a player catches fire. They're hardly ever holding cards for more than 3 years. THus, you get the apparent death of the base chrome rookie.

However, if you plan on holding onto the cards for the long run (which is almost never advisable unless someone becomes a god amongst men) then the base chrome should offer decent profits.

The problem is that the *ebay market* isn't big enough to support steady sales of any common card produced in the modern-modern era. However, if you're prepared to wait it out, you should see decent returns especially with the prices bottoming out.

The recession has really driven this point home because no one's buying cards that they can't flip if they have to. If someone needs money they want cards that they'll be able to liquidate immediately.

Liquidating long-term investments in any situation is an awful idea.

Ta-da, the death of the base chrome.

I don't know what they're selling for, but I'd assume there'd be a rather large market inefficiency right now if you had the cash to buy huge quantities and sit on them for a while. Even if you can't sit on them for 10 years, based on the talk going around here, you could probably make a decent percentage once the market corrects itself in a couple of years.

Spoken like a stock broker! haha.. I agree with you 100%. Very much like an IPO.. we buy when they are "HOT" and then the prices stablize. .some are able to sell quickly and make a pretty profit.
I think a lot of us also have visions of Pujols dancing in our heads. Bases being $50-$80. Obviously no one can hold a candle to that. But maybe they could be a 1/3..

 

[cgilmo]

another problem with mass lots of base chrome


you have to sell a ton of them to make any real worthwhile money


During a peak, you can only sell so much stuff on ebay without flooding the ebay market. You then have to look for alternatives to sell during that spike.

If you have an alternative market, then you can move more, but if you are turning 2 bucks profit per base chrome then you had better be able to move at least 500. Keep in mind that for every time you are right, you are wrong at least twice and sales from a hit need to cover losses from a miss.

 

[pigskincardboard]

Spoken like a stock broker! haha.. I agree with you 100%. Very much like an IPO.. we buy when they are "HOT" and then the prices stablize. .some are able to sell quickly and make a pretty profit.
I think a lot of us also have visions of Pujols dancing in our heads. Bases being $50-$80. Obviously no one can hold a candle to that. But maybe they could be a 1/3..

Obviously if you load up on a player that becomes a once in a generation guy, you're set.

The problem's going to be, as cgilmo stated, the identification of the card and the knowledge of the future collector. If you believe the refractors will hold value, you almost have to believe that chrome base of the same card will hold value. The higher value cards make sure the lower value cards are known.

Bowman Chrome first cards mean very little -- What'll matter is that Bowman Chrome put out a card, a full calender year before any other product or else they'll get squeezed in with everything else.

Unfortunately, I think baseball is dying and long-term investments are going to kill you, but that's for another day.

I think the market will definitely be large enough to support all-stars and home-town heroes though. Unfortunately, guys are changing teams like freakin' crazy, so half the market may well die out. You could always rely on at least the home team market, even if the player was awful. If he played 10 years in that city though, a generation will know his name and probably have some connection to him. I think the player has to play at least 5 or 6 years for any kind of connection to that team's fanbase.

There will be a large group of people that'll want to collect recent HOFers at a moderately decent price. I just don't think there's enough first year refractors to satisfy that -- not even close. I'd just be going for Hall of Famers or people that'll make "BEST OF" lists. Eg. Dave Steib is a top-10 blue jay, or Lee Smith a top-10 closer.

I have no clue how many base chrome are produced per player and if someone knows, please share.