Brett Lawrie Super Auto Pulled.... from a value box

[sigma_chi]

I opened 37 of these and pulled 1 base Alex Colome auto, and 1 orange ref of Todd Helton. Some guys have all the luck

 

[phillyfan0417]

As I've said before, this is a good thing!

 

[vwnut13]

Does JP still think that someone potentially pulling the Bryce Harper Superfractor out of one of these is a crazy idea?

When did I say that? Link, please.

In a thread titled: "I know where the Bryce Harper Superfractor Auto is..." you said...

(loud buzzer)

Sorry, you are incorrect.

Superfractors are exclusive to Hobby packs.

Then you said.....

One hobby pack.

Ok then, I was wrong. Your odds of hitting a Superfractor are clearly better.

Turns out three of the top four Superfractors got put in Value Boxes, not just "a superfractor".

 

[RandomH]

Must...resist...impulse...to buy...more...

Same..

 

[Jaypers]

One hobby pack.

Ok then, I was wrong. Your odds of hitting a Superfractor are clearly better.

Turns out three of the top four Superfractors got put in Value Boxes, not just "a superfractor".

Fair enough. In my defense though, I was unaware at the time that each pack contained a definite "hit".

 

[A_Pharis]

Babahahhaa.

This is awesome. I love it.

How long before someone says "Topps owes the big hits to people that buy multiple cases." To which I will reply "In that case, I am going to go buy 500 quick picks so the Lotto will owe me the $100 million jackpot."

 

[Jaypers]

Babahahhaa.

This is awesome. I love it.

How long before someone says "Topps owes the big hits to people that buy multiple cases." To which I will reply "In that case, I am going to go buy 500 quick picks so the Lotto will owe me the $100 million jackpot."

Using your Lotto example, let's say there was a special source from which you would win at least something if you bought a ticket, but you weren't aware of this when they were first being sold from your regular source, from which you bought several dozen tickets and won nothing.

Would you be angry?

 

[Sjrmn91]

One hobby pack.

Ok then, I was wrong. Your odds of hitting a Superfractor are clearly better.

Turns out three of the top four Superfractors got put in Value Boxes, not just "a superfractor".

Fair enough. In my defense though, I was unaware at the time that each pack contained a definite "hit".

If that's the case, I got screwed in mine. I don't think I even got a refractor out of any of the Value boxes I bought. lol

 

[wolfmanalfredo]

I've been up to walmart and target a few times over the last month or two, and neither had any value boxes that weren't football. Blasters have been kicking my butt since I pulled a harper ref auto in october. Absolutely nothing since, so I'd really like to open even 1 value box if I can find one.

 

[thefatguy]

I'll sell you some.

 

[Sjrmn91]

I've been up to walmart and target a few times over the last month or two, and neither had any value boxes that weren't football. Blasters have been kicking my butt since I pulled a harper ref auto in october. Absolutely nothing since, so I'd really like to open even 1 value box if I can find one.

Is there a ShopKo down in MG? The one up here had a bunch last time I was there.

 

[ChasHawk]

Since when does EVERY value box have a "hit" in the BC pack?

 

[Jaypers]

Since when does EVERY value box have a "hit" in the BC pack?

That's what is being reported from Olds, although I don't think Topps made any guarantee.

Article -- http://www.beckett.com/news/2012/01/loa ... s-stacked/

 

[A_Pharis]

Babahahhaa.

This is awesome. I love it.

How long before someone says "Topps owes the big hits to people that buy multiple cases." To which I will reply "In that case, I am going to go buy 500 quick picks so the Lotto will owe me the $100 million jackpot."

Using your Lotto example, let's say there was a special source from which you would win at least something if you bought a ticket, but you weren't aware of this when they were first being sold from your regular source, which made no such claim and from which you bought several dozen tickets and won nothing.

Would you be angry?

Umm..


Where does Topps say that you will pull any specific super from hobby?
To the best of my recollection - please, correct me if I misread - you are only promised odds of pulling A superfractor.

And, in fact, those odds are based on an entire run of packs... so - technically - every super could be put in back to back packs and stuff into one case and still fall into the odds of the entire run. Let's say that a super has the odds of.. I dunno 1:15000 packs. If you buy 15000 packs, they aren't giving you a guarantee that you'll pull a super. That's just the odds of a super versus the entire run of product.

To say that you have better odds in variety boxes is all baseless speculation by people who are "UMADs", because they think that one pattern of buying should dictate the rules of how things fall. The only people that case buyers should be mad at is themselves for thinking that any given number of packs should have any number of hits. (i.e. I bought the 15000 packs so I should get 1 super) True, odds say that you SHOULD - but it's entirely possible that you WON'T.

Don't be mad that the cards are falling this way.

 

[ChasHawk]

Since when does EVERY value box have a "hit" in the BC pack?

That's what is being reported from Olds, although I don't think Topps made any guarantee.

Article -- http://www.beckett.com/news/2012/01/loa ... s-stacked/

He hit three autos out of 10 boxes, and hit other boxes contained...something.

His words...

Some included a Refractor (one in four packs), others included Bowman’s Best inserts (one in eight), some included a diecut Future-Fractor (one in nine). One of my packs took it even further with a diecut Micro-Fractor version of the cards, a one in 2,035 odds-breaker, of Jacob Turner, a card limited to just 25 copies. Then, of course, one included some star power — a card I appreciated as I like its look. One pack of mine yielded a Harper Chrome Throwback card.

So he's calling an insert or a "star" card a hit?

also...

I also bought a few more here and there before that last 10 … and didn’t get much to show for it. (Not sure if the insert-per-pack line held up, but I think it was close.)

 

[A_Pharis]

Since when does EVERY value box have a "hit" in the BC pack?

That's what is being reported from Olds, although I don't think Topps made any guarantee.

Article -- http://www.beckett.com/news/2012/01/loa ... s-stacked/

Olds is full of crap, and that article is based on a tiny sample size. I've seen plenty of these turn up no hits over the course of a few dozen boxes. That's the beauty of "random" -- it's RANDOM.
Olds makes a habit of lurking on boards and making articles based on the things that seem to be heating up. Hell, if I made a thread saying I found dog poop in a box that had enough replies - he'd write an article on it.

 

[Jaypers]

[quote="A_Pharis":12bfkeob] Babahahhaa.

This is awesome. I love it.

How long before someone says "Topps owes the big hits to people that buy multiple cases." To which I will reply "In that case, I am going to go buy 500 quick picks so the Lotto will owe me the $100 million jackpot."

Using your Lotto example, let's say there was a special source from which you would win at least something if you bought a ticket, but you weren't aware of this when they were first being sold from your regular source, which made no such claim and from which you bought several dozen tickets and won nothing.

Would you be angry?

Umm..


Where does Topps say that you will pull any specific super from hobby?
To the best of my recollection - please, correct me if I misread - you are only promised odds of pulling A superfractor.

And, in fact, those odds are based on an entire run of packs... so - technically - every super could be put in back to back packs and stuff into one case and still fall into the odds of the entire run. Let's say that a super has the odds of.. I dunno 1:15000 packs. If you buy 15000 packs, they aren't giving you a guarantee that you'll pull a super. That's just the odds of a super versus the entire run of product.

To say that you have better odds in variety boxes is all baseless speculation by people who are "UMADs", because they think that one pattern of buying should dictate the rules of how things fall. The only people that case buyers should be mad at is themselves for thinking that any given number of packs should have any number of hits. (i.e. I bought the 15000 packs so I should get 1 super) True, odds say that you SHOULD - but it's entirely possible that you WON'T.

Don't be mad that the cards are falling this way.[/quote:12bfkeob]

Not mad at all, and my Lotto example was not to illustrate the odds of pulling a Superfractor, but rather, the odds of pulling a bigger card in general, which certainly seem to be a lot more favorable in Value Boxes. I've seen quite a few more Oranges and Reds surface from them than from Hobby cases, as an example.

In any case, it's a moot point. I don't even break wax anymore, anyway.

 

[A_Pharis]

[quote="A_Pharis":t6fzsco1] Babahahhaa.

This is awesome. I love it.

How long before someone says "Topps owes the big hits to people that buy multiple cases." To which I will reply "In that case, I am going to go buy 500 quick picks so the Lotto will owe me the $100 million jackpot."

Using your Lotto example, let's say there was a special source from which you would win at least something if you bought a ticket, but you weren't aware of this when they were first being sold from your regular source, which made no such claim and from which you bought several dozen tickets and won nothing.

Would you be angry?

Umm..


Where does Topps say that you will pull any specific super from hobby?
To the best of my recollection - please, correct me if I misread - you are only promised odds of pulling A superfractor.

And, in fact, those odds are based on an entire run of packs... so - technically - every super could be put in back to back packs and stuff into one case and still fall into the odds of the entire run. Let's say that a super has the odds of.. I dunno 1:15000 packs. If you buy 15000 packs, they aren't giving you a guarantee that you'll pull a super. That's just the odds of a super versus the entire run of product.

To say that you have better odds in variety boxes is all baseless speculation by people who are "UMADs", because they think that one pattern of buying should dictate the rules of how things fall. The only people that case buyers should be mad at is themselves for thinking that any given number of packs should have any number of hits. (i.e. I bought the 15000 packs so I should get 1 super) True, odds say that you SHOULD - but it's entirely possible that you WON'T.

Don't be mad that the cards are falling this way.

Not mad at all, and my Lotto example was not to illustrate the odds of pulling a Superfractor, but rather, the odds of pulling a bigger card in general, which certainly seem to be a lot more favorable in Value Boxes.[/quote:t6fzsco1]


-- based on samples from people who posted on message boards.
How many dozens or hundreds of duds go unreported? I know I've opened plenty of duds that I didn't bother posting. Of course you're going to think they are all loaded when every other thread about them is "CHECK OUT THIS HIT FROM A VALUE BOX!"

Chances are, if I went and bought 100 of these boxes... there'd be runs of them where it seemed like I was getting a hit per box - but I also think there'd be longer runs of nothing. Odds would say that the larger the sample size, the more towards "normal" results the curve would move to.

 

[A_Pharis]

And - to add - Olds wrote that article based on 10 boxes. Guy just had a lucky run to hit 3 autos and the rest of his "hits" are stuff that fall fairly often in hobby boxes (refractors, die cuts, inserts).

 

[Brewer Andy]

[quote="A_Pharis":10apbctp]

[quote="A_Pharis":10apbctp] Babahahhaa.

This is awesome. I love it.

How long before someone says "Topps owes the big hits to people that buy multiple cases." To which I will reply "In that case, I am going to go buy 500 quick picks so the Lotto will owe me the $100 million jackpot."

Using your Lotto example, let's say there was a special source from which you would win at least something if you bought a ticket, but you weren't aware of this when they were first being sold from your regular source, which made no such claim and from which you bought several dozen tickets and won nothing.

Would you be angry?

Umm..


Where does Topps say that you will pull any specific super from hobby?
To the best of my recollection - please, correct me if I misread - you are only promised odds of pulling A superfractor.

And, in fact, those odds are based on an entire run of packs... so - technically - every super could be put in back to back packs and stuff into one case and still fall into the odds of the entire run. Let's say that a super has the odds of.. I dunno 1:15000 packs. If you buy 15000 packs, they aren't giving you a guarantee that you'll pull a super. That's just the odds of a super versus the entire run of product.

To say that you have better odds in variety boxes is all baseless speculation by people who are "UMADs", because they think that one pattern of buying should dictate the rules of how things fall. The only people that case buyers should be mad at is themselves for thinking that any given number of packs should have any number of hits. (i.e. I bought the 15000 packs so I should get 1 super) True, odds say that you SHOULD - but it's entirely possible that you WON'T.

Don't be mad that the cards are falling this way.

Not mad at all, and my Lotto example was not to illustrate the odds of pulling a Superfractor, but rather, the odds of pulling a bigger card in general, which certainly seem to be a lot more favorable in Value Boxes.[/quote:10apbctp]


-- based on samples from people who posted on message boards.
How many dozens or hundreds of duds go unreported? I know I've opened plenty of duds that I didn't bother posting. Of course you're going to think they are all loaded when every other thread about them is "CHECK OUT THIS HIT FROM A VALUE BOX!"

Chances are, if I went and bought 100 of these boxes... there'd be runs of them where it seemed like I was getting a hit per box - but I also think there'd be longer runs of nothing. Odds would say that the larger the sample size, the more towards "normal" results the curve would move to.[/quote:10apbctp]


Plenty of jack squat breaks in the box break forum too isn't there?