Carl Crawford signs with the Boston Red Sox

[uniquebaseballcards]

This is a pretty terrible deal for a guy who I always thought has shown slow improvement over the years and is not much different from the player he was 7 years ago. .337 career OBP, .444 slugging, 0 100 RBI seasons, and only 3 100 run seasons. Personally, I think 20 mil a year is too much for a .300, 90 RBI, 15 HR hitter.

I was shocked by the numbers too. He's getting superstar money but he isn't a superstar, I'd be surprised if his numbers improve. But maybe he'll fit in at Boston.

 

[KandKCards]

This is a pretty terrible deal for a guy who I always thought has shown slow improvement over the years and is not much different from the player he was 7 years ago. .337 career OBP, .444 slugging, 0 100 RBI seasons, and only 3 100 run seasons. Personally, I think 20 mil a year is too much for a .300, 90 RBI, 15 HR hitter.

Convenient that your argument left out the fact that he consistently leads the league in triples and stolen bases, and is probably the best fielding outfielder in the league. Having his glove in left in Fenway means absolutely nothing will drop out there. And he's not even 30 yet. And baseball reference lists Roberto Clemente as the #1 most similar player through his age.
I think they are paying a lot for him, and $20M+ per year should be reserved guys who can carry teams, and Crawford isn't that. But he's valuable just like Pedroia; he does EVERYTHING, and compliments the rest of the lineup.

 

[fengzhang]

This is a pretty terrible deal for a guy who I always thought has shown slow improvement over the years and is not much different from the player he was 7 years ago. .337 career OBP, .444 slugging, 0 100 RBI seasons, and only 3 100 run seasons. Personally, I think 20 mil a year is too much for a .300, 90 RBI, 15 HR hitter.

Steals have no value? The guy is a top ten offensive player in baseball. RBI is a meaningless statistic.

Steals have value only in scoring runs. Unfortunately, with his crappy OBP, he barely gets 90-100 runs scored even in a full year. A slow hitter with a .430 OBP has a great chance of scoring 100 runs, even batting 3rd or 4th in a lineup. Meanwhile, a guy can hit at the top of a lineup, steal 50 bases a year, but if his OBP is .340, he's going to end up with 90 runs scored. So, yes, the value of steals is diminished if your OBP sucks. People really undervalue OBP and overvalue speed when it comes to scoring runs. If you want a Scott Podsednik on your team, fine. But, don't expect him to consistently score 100 runs. You can steal 70 bases, have 700+ plate appearances and still not break 90 runs scored if your OBP is bad enough.

Years ago, we said Carl Crawford would develop into a 25 HR, middle of the order guy. Despite 600+ at-bats every year, he still only has 15 HR power and his RBI totals fluctuate b/w 60-90. After seeing 8 straight years of 5-20 HR's, do we really think he's going to be a 25-30 HR hitter? I think the Red Sox are really going to be suffering at the back end of this deal.

 

[Lars]

I can just imagine what a 28-year old Barry Bonds would get in today's market.

I see Crawford as a very good player, but still more of a complimentary guy - but then again, I'm an Angels fan.

This is a pretty terrible deal for a guy who I always thought has shown slow improvement over the years and is not much different from the player he was 7 years ago. .337 career OBP, .444 slugging, 0 100 RBI seasons, and only 3 100 run seasons. Personally, I think 20 mil a year is too much for a .300, 90 RBI, 15 HR hitter.

Steals have no value? The guy is a top ten offensive player in baseball. RBI is a meaningless statistic.

Steals have value only in scoring runs. Unfortunately, with his crappy OBP, he barely gets 90-100 runs scored even in a full year. A slow hitter with a .430 OBP has a great chance of scoring 100 runs, even batting 3rd or 4th in a lineup. Meanwhile, a guy can hit at the top of a lineup, steal 50 bases a year, but if his OBP is .340, he's going to end up with 90 runs scored. So, yes, the value of steals is diminished if your OBP sucks. People really undervalue OBP and overvalue speed when it comes to scoring runs. If you want a Scott Podsednik on your team, fine. But, don't expect him to consistently score 100 runs. You can steal 70 bases, have 700+ plate appearances and still not break 90 runs scored if your OBP is bad enough.

Years ago, we said Carl Crawford would develop into a 25 HR, middle of the order guy. Despite 600+ at-bats every year, he still only has 15 HR power and his RBI totals fluctuate b/w 60-90. After seeing 8 straight years of 5-20 HR's, do we really think he's going to be a 25-30 HR hitter? I think the Red Sox are really going to be suffering at the back end of this deal.

 

[fengzhang]

I can just imagine what a 28-year old Barry Bonds would get in today's market.

I see Crawford as a very good player, but still more of a complimentary guy - but then again, I'm an Angels fan.

This is a pretty terrible deal for a guy who I always thought has shown slow improvement over the years and is not much different from the player he was 7 years ago. .337 career OBP, .444 slugging, 0 100 RBI seasons, and only 3 100 run seasons. Personally, I think 20 mil a year is too much for a .300, 90 RBI, 15 HR hitter.

Steals have no value? The guy is a top ten offensive player in baseball. RBI is a meaningless statistic.

Steals have value only in scoring runs. Unfortunately, with his crappy OBP, he barely gets 90-100 runs scored even in a full year. A slow hitter with a .430 OBP has a great chance of scoring 100 runs, even batting 3rd or 4th in a lineup. Meanwhile, a guy can hit at the top of a lineup, steal 50 bases a year, but if his OBP is .340, he's going to end up with 90 runs scored. So, yes, the value of steals is diminished if your OBP sucks. People really undervalue OBP and overvalue speed when it comes to scoring runs. If you want a Scott Podsednik on your team, fine. But, don't expect him to consistently score 100 runs. You can steal 70 bases, have 700+ plate appearances and still not break 90 runs scored if your OBP is bad enough.

Years ago, we said Carl Crawford would develop into a 25 HR, middle of the order guy. Despite 600+ at-bats every year, he still only has 15 HR power and his RBI totals fluctuate b/w 60-90. After seeing 8 straight years of 5-20 HR's, do we really think he's going to be a 25-30 HR hitter? I think the Red Sox are really going to be suffering at the back end of this deal.

Wasn't Carl Crawford supposed to develop into a Barry Bonds-type 5-tool player?

Don't get me wrong. He's a good player. He was a good player 8 years ago. He's a good player today. He averages 85 runs scored for every 600 plate appearances (Scott Posednik averages 81 runs scored. Juan Pierre averages 83 runs scored). His offense is still not good enough for him to be a #3 hitter. Career-wise, he's averaging 60 RBI per 500 at-bats. In comparison, the San Francisco Giants (certainly no offensive powerhouse) as a team last year knocked in 66 runs per 550 at-bats, virtually identical.

What does all of this mean? He's no better at driving in runs than the average player on an average offensive team. He's better than average at scoring runs than an average player but no more so than a Juan Pierre or a Scott Posednik. He's essentially a glorified and very expensive #2 hitter and will remain so. For comparison, Barry Bonds hit .260 in 1999, missed a good part of the year with elbow surgery, played in a crappy offensive park on a crappy offensive team, only had 355 at-bats, stole just 15 bases and still scored 90 runs (which is a typical year for Crawford). Don't underestimate OBP when it comes to scoring runs. You want steals if you have a player on your fantasy team. You want OBP if you have a player at the top of your lineup.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Wasn't Carl Crawford supposed to develop into a Barry Bonds-type 5-tool player?

Don't get me wrong. He's a good player. He was a good player 8 years ago. He's a good player today. He averages 85 runs scored for every 600 plate appearances (Scott Posednik averages 81 runs scored. Juan Pierre averages 83 runs scored). His offense is still not good enough for him to be a #3 hitter. He's essentially a glorified and very expensive #2 hitter and will remain so. For comparison, Barry Bonds hit .260 in 1999, missed a good part of the year with elbow surgery, only had 355 at-bats, stole just 15 bases and still scored 90 runs (which is a typical year for Crawford).

I know I am biased, but I think you are ignoring the facts if you say he has not improved. This past season he set a career high in homers (with 19) and in runs (110) all the while playing in one of the world hitting parks in baseball. Over the last couple of years he's upped his walk rate and while it's not great, he's no longer a .330 OBP guy, he's more like a .350-.360 OBP guy, and there's a chance those continue going up. He is also one of the best outfielders in baseball, is a guy you know will be a good guy in the clubhouse, and getting out of Tampa where the turf was bad for his knees should only help.

Was he worth $142 million over 7 years? Not unless Jason Werth's salary is the new market. Is he a great player? He was in 2009-2010.