CY Young / MVP candidates nearing the All-Star Break

[scotty21690]

Either Gonzalez or Bautista would be a fine and deserving pick. To say it isn't close is insane bias. Three weeks ago Bautista was having one of the best seasons EVER. It's most definitely close.

Bautista currently leads MLB in WAR with 5.5. Gonzalez is 4th at 4.5.

Oh, coming from a BLUE JAYS fan? :benson:


Let me show you the stats I posted yesterday:


Gonzalez RISP: .386/.453/.545 54 RBI (117 PA/101 AB)
Gonzalez 2 outs RISP: .400/.481/.556 25 RBI (52 PA/45 AB)

Bautista RISP: .226/.510/.468 27 RBI (98 PA/62 AB)
Bautista 2 outs RISP: .200/.556/.400 4 RBI (36 PA/20 AB)


I am not giving my picks for who is going to finish a close second in the MVP race, but who is going to win it.

 

[mannyramirezcollec]

I cant see Reyes winning it with the mets being a 3rd place team at best

 

[braden]

I never said Bautista is the MVP. I said it's insanely biased to argue he isn't anywhere close to Gonzalez this year. And it is. That's all. I'm done.

Either Gonzalez or Bautista would be a fine and deserving pick. To say it isn't close is insane bias. Three weeks ago Bautista was having one of the best seasons EVER. It's most definitely close.

Bautista currently leads MLB in WAR with 5.5. Gonzalez is 4th at 4.5.

Oh, coming from a BLUE JAYS fan? :benson:


Let me show you the stats I posted yesterday:


Gonzalez RISP: .386/.453/.545 54 RBI (117 PA/101 AB)
Gonzalez 2 outs RISP: .400/.481/.556 25 RBI (52 PA/45 AB)

Bautista RISP: .226/.510/.468 27 RBI (98 PA/62 AB)
Bautista 2 outs RISP: .200/.556/.400 4 RBI (36 PA/20 AB)


I am not giving my picks for who is going to finish a close second in the MVP race, but who is going to win it.

 

[Nick1190]

Cy Young AL - Justin Verlander, followed by C.C.

AL MVP - Cant be anyone other than Adrian Gonzalez, followed by Miguel Cabrera

NL Cy Young - Jurrjens...then hamels I guess

NL MVP- Jose Reyes followed by matt kemp

 

[drays4life]

I know that I'm a Shields/Rays fan, but he is close so far...

W/L ERA WHIP INN K H/9 BB/9 K/9 K/BB CG/SHO

Shields
08-5 2.45 0.98 128.2 127 6.7 2.1 8.9 4.2 6/3

Verlander
11-3 2.32 0.86 135.2 130 5.8 1.9 8.6 4.5 4/2

Weaver
09-4 1.97 0.93 123.1 106 6.3 2.0 7.7 3.8 3/2

Beckett
06-6 2.20 0.93 098.0 080 5.5 2.8 7.3 2.6 1/1

Sabathia
11-4 3.05 1.21 129.2 106 8.7 2.2 7.4 3.3 1/0

Shields doesn't have the wins, a slightly higher ERA/WHIP than the others besides CC, the highest K/9 out of everyone, and the most CG, SHO of the bunch. Verlander has the no hitter, but Shields has shown his dominance as well in CG/SHO (he missed one shutout because of an unearned run also). Its a close race. Its nice to see Shields doing this well and he has been very consistent too.

 

[All The Hype]

Bautista has 25 Home Runs, tied with Mark Teixeira for the league lead.

Bautista is slugging .674, second closest is Kemp at .628.

Bautista's OBP is .473, second closest Miguel Cabrera at .453.

Gonzalez is slugging .593, OBP of .407, and 16 Home Runs.

Both are playing phenomenal but it is much closer than some may think.

Gonzalez RISP: .380/.448/.530 52 RBI (116 PA)
Gonzalez 2 outs RISP: .400/.481/.556 (52 PA)

Bautista RISP: .226/.510/.468 27 RBI (98 PA)
Bautista 2 outs RISP: .200/.556/.400 (36 PA)


Stats not including tonight..

You're forgetting that with Bautista's bat, there's a runner in scoring position every time he steps up to the plate.

From an unbiased opinion, no one has this 'locked up' yet (even if the season ended today). As much as I hate that this matters, Bautista will likely be hurt by the fact that his team isn't going to the playoffs.

 

[fkw]

NL MVP ......... Matt Kemp
NL Cy .............. Jair Jurrjens

AL MVP .......... Jose Bautista
AL Cy ............ Justin Verlander

 

[G $MONEY$]

one problem for Bautista, he plays in Canada and no one cares

Thanks,
Kevin

Really??

If this was true why then did a Blue Jays pitcher win AL Cy Young for three years in a row from 1996-1998!?!? Then again in 2003 another Toronto pitcher wins the Cy Young. A pitcher in Montreal (Pedro Martinez) also won the NL Cy Young one year as well.

A Blue Jays player also has won AL MVP before as well, so your argument is thrown out the window.


Thanks,
Bilko

 

[FromKoufaxtoEdwin]

Either Gonzalez or Bautista would be a fine and deserving pick. To say it isn't close is insane bias. Three weeks ago Bautista was having one of the best seasons EVER. It's most definitely close.

Bautista currently leads MLB in WAR with 5.5. Gonzalez is 4th at 4.5.

Oh, coming from a BLUE JAYS fan? :benson:


Let me show you the stats I posted yesterday:


Gonzalez RISP: .386/.453/.545 54 RBI (117 PA/101 AB)
Gonzalez 2 outs RISP: .400/.481/.556 25 RBI (52 PA/45 AB)

Bautista RISP: .226/.510/.468 27 RBI (98 PA/62 AB)
Bautista 2 outs RISP: .200/.556/.400 4 RBI (36 PA/20 AB)


I am not giving my picks for who is going to finish a close second in the MVP race, but who is going to win it.

Those numbers are absolutely meaningless. The sample size is just too small to conclude anything from, and its been shown numerous times that the idea of a "clutch" hitter is really just a fallacy. Great hitters are just great hitters, and this os the case with these two players. Hell, even with those numbers, Bautista looks fantastic. He's got over a .500 OBP in those situations, and as everybody should know, that is the most important stat for an offensive player. In looking at these two, Bautista bests AGon in every advanced metric and the numbers that truly matter. his OBP is astronomical, his walk rate is phenomenal, and his wOBA is otherworldly. Baustista is just flat out the best hitter in baseball for this half season, and its not really all that close. He won't win the MVP even if he continues like this because there are other fine choices on better teams, but theres no doubt that Bautista is and has been the best offensive player in the bigs.

As for the NL Cy, Jurrjens looks great with his shiny ERA and W/L record, but everything points to him having a massive regression in the second half. His walk rate is fantastic, but he doesnt K anybody, allows a good amount of line drives, and has just been really, really lucky this year.

 

[ballerskrip]

Bautista has 25 Home Runs, tied with Mark Teixeira for the league lead.

Bautista is slugging .674, second closest is Kemp at .628.

Bautista's OBP is .473, second closest Miguel Cabrera at .453.

Gonzalez is slugging .593, OBP of .407, and 16 Home Runs.

Both are playing phenomenal but it is much closer than some may think.

Gonzalez RISP: .380/.448/.530 52 RBI (116 PA)
Gonzalez 2 outs RISP: .400/.481/.556 (52 PA)

Bautista RISP: .226/.510/.468 27 RBI (98 PA)
Bautista 2 outs RISP: .200/.556/.400 (36 PA)


Stats not including tonight..

You're forgetting that with Bautista's bat, there's a runner in scoring position every time he steps up to the plate.

From an unbiased opinion, no one has this 'locked up' yet (even if the season ended today). As much as I hate that this matters, Bautista will likely be hurt by the fact that his team isn't going to the playoffs.

Anyone going to mention that adrian gonzalez has nearly TWICE as at bats with runners in scoring position? Shoot he should have a TON more rbi than he currently does if he Is such a stud. Truth be told, in that lineup, bautista's numbers would truly be incredible!

 

[G $MONEY$]

Bautista has 25 Home Runs, tied with Mark Teixeira for the league lead.

Bautista is slugging .674, second closest is Kemp at .628.

Bautista's OBP is .473, second closest Miguel Cabrera at .453.

Gonzalez is slugging .593, OBP of .407, and 16 Home Runs.

Both are playing phenomenal but it is much closer than some may think.

Gonzalez RISP: .380/.448/.530 52 RBI (116 PA)
Gonzalez 2 outs RISP: .400/.481/.556 (52 PA)

Bautista RISP: .226/.510/.468 27 RBI (98 PA)
Bautista 2 outs RISP: .200/.556/.400 (36 PA)


Stats not including tonight..

You're forgetting that with Bautista's bat, there's a runner in scoring position every time he steps up to the plate.

From an unbiased opinion, no one has this 'locked up' yet (even if the season ended today). As much as I hate that this matters, Bautista will likely be hurt by the fact that his team isn't going to the playoffs.

Anyone going to mention that adrian gonzalez has nearly TWICE as at bats with runners in scoring position? Shoot he should have a TON more rbi than he currently does if he Is such a stud. Truth be told, in that lineup, bautista's numbers would truly be incredible!

Bautista also missed 8 or 9 games in a row earlier this season, had he played in those 8 or 9 games his offensive totals would be even higher.

Bautista's stellar first half has him in the top five in all of baseball in a number of offensive categories. Check out all the categories hes leading in (or is in top 5)...


Batting Average

1. Jose Reyes, NYM .352
2. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS .349
3. Victor Martinez, DET .332
4. Miguel Cabrera, DET .331
5. Jose Bautista, TOR .330

Runs

1. Curtis Granderson, NYY 72
2. Jose Reyes, NYM 65
3. Jose Bautista, TOR 63
4. Miguel Cabrera, DET 60
5. Rickie Weeks, MIL 58

Home Runs

1. Jose Bautista, TOR 26
2. Mark Teixeira, NYY 25
3. Matt Kemp, LAD 22
4. Curtis Granderson, NYY 21
4. Prince Fielder, MIL 21

Walks

1. Jose Bautista, TOR 70
2. Joey Votto, CIN 62
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET 62
3. Dustin Pedroia, BOS 58
4. Carlos Santana, CLE 54

On-Base Percentage

1. Jose Bautista, TOR .473
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET .450
3. Joey Votto, CIN .436
4. Prince Fielder, MIL .416
5. Matt Kemp, LAD .412

Slug Percentage

1. Jose Bautista, TOR .674
2. Matt Kemp, LAD .623
3. Lance Berkman, STL .593
4. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS .590
5. Prince Fielder, MIL .588

On-Base Plus Slugging

1. Jose Bautista, TOR 1.147
2. Matt Kemp, LAD 1.035
3. Miguel Cabrera, DET 1.031
4. Prince Fielder, MIL 1.004
5. Lance Berkman, STL

 

[bigpapiMA32]

I agree but Bautista could throw up 50+ home runs which I think puts him in consideration. Maybe just a two way race.

Consideration, yes, but look at last year. His 54 dingers earned him a fourth place finish. Miguel Cabrera finished second with a .328/.420/.622 line (this year he's at .331/.450/.581). So while voters do like the longball, it doesn't necessarily equal a top two finish.



Also, one stat that stands out for Verlander has to be QS%....a ridiculous 94%. And that's 6 points higher than King Felix last year.

 

[G $MONEY$]

I agree but Bautista could throw up 50+ home runs which I think puts him in consideration. Maybe just a two way race.

Consideration, yes, but look at last year. His 54 dingers earned him a fourth place finish.

Last year was Bautista's "coming out party" so to speak and i think many of the sports writers who are voting for the MVP awards were a little leery voting for him last year as they thought he could have been just a "one year wonder", not many people were familiar with him and I'm sure the steroid question was in their minds as well.

Now that Bautista is well known through out the league, has proven that he is not a "one year wonder" and that he would have gone through multiple steroid and PED tests now and they have all come up false, i think the sports writers will feel much more comfortable voting him as AL MVP.

 

[bigpapiMA32]

Anyone going to mention that adrian gonzalez has nearly TWICE as at bats with runners in scoring position? Shoot he should have a TON more rbi than he currently does if he Is such a stud. Truth be told, in that lineup, bautista's numbers would truly be incredible!

Actually, this is not quite true. Check out this table.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sorta ... id=1013928

It is sorted by the percentage of players on base a player drives in (minimum 200 plate appearances). Gonzalez is 5th, Bautista is 125th. Now, Bautista has driven himself in 26 times and that is not included in this stat, but it is still a good tool. Bautista is certainly having a phenomenal individual season (and better than Gonzalez's), but in terms of being most valuable to his team, I believe Gonzalez has the edge.

But if history has told us anything, even if the award is named the "Most Valuable" Player it tends to be given to the player with the best individual season, which right now is Bautista.

Just some food for thought.

 

[All The Hype]

I agree but Bautista could throw up 50+ home runs which I think puts him in consideration. Maybe just a two way race.

Consideration, yes, but look at last year. His 54 dingers earned him a fourth place finish. Miguel Cabrera finished second with a .328/.420/.622 line (this year he's at .331/.450/.581). So while voters do like the longball, it doesn't necessarily equal a top two finish.

50 homeruns? Sure that's nice. But how about the other offensive categories that he's leading the Majors in, or is at least in the top 5 in...because that's just about all offensive categories. He is proving this year that he's not just a one-dimensional player.

 

[DaveH]

MVP: Bautista
CY: Verlander
ROY: not sure

MVP: Tulo
CY: Halladay
ROY: Kimbrel

Bautista is without doubt the best hitter in mlb right now. in years past i would be leary, but it seems like people are finally starting to come around / notice advanced statistics, and i feel like Bautista will take it because of the voters and general population's growing interest in advanced stats.

 

[scotty21690]

MVP: Bautista
CY: Verlander
ROY: not sure

MVP: Tulo
CY: Halladay
ROY: Kimbrel

Bautista is without doubt the best hitter in mlb right now. in years past i would be leary, but it seems like people are finally starting to come around / notice advanced statistics, and i feel like Bautista will take it because of the voters and general population's growing interest in advanced stats.

Interesting! May I ask why you picked him?

 

[braden]

MVP: Bautista
CY: Verlander
ROY: not sure

MVP: Tulo
CY: Halladay
ROY: Kimbrel

Bautista is without doubt the best hitter in mlb right now. in years past i would be leary, but it seems like people are finally starting to come around / notice advanced statistics, and i feel like Bautista will take it because of the voters and general population's growing interest in advanced stats.

This is a decent point. Voters finally came around to the Win being meaningless, can enlightenment about RBI and small samples like RISP or dumb stuff like GWRBI be far behind?

I certainly hope so, for everyone's sake, but something tells me that dinosaurs are going to cling to RBI for longer than Wins.

 

[DaveH]

MVP: Bautista
CY: Verlander
ROY: not sure

MVP: Tulo
CY: Halladay
ROY: Kimbrel

Bautista is without doubt the best hitter in mlb right now. in years past i would be leary, but it seems like people are finally starting to come around / notice advanced statistics, and i feel like Bautista will take it because of the voters and general population's growing interest in advanced stats.

Interesting! May I ask why you picked him?

feel like he and the Rockies will have a big 2nd half, and he is a huge bat that plays a good SS, which is tremendously valuable to a team.

 

[fengzhang]

MVP: Bautista
CY: Verlander
ROY: not sure

MVP: Tulo
CY: Halladay
ROY: Kimbrel

Bautista is without doubt the best hitter in mlb right now. in years past i would be leary, but it seems like people are finally starting to come around / notice advanced statistics, and i feel like Bautista will take it because of the voters and general population's growing interest in advanced stats.

This is a decent point. Voters finally came around to the Win being meaningless, can enlightenment about RBI and small samples like RISP or dumb stuff like GWRBI be far behind?

I certainly hope so, for everyone's sake, but something tells me that dinosaurs are going to cling to RBI for longer than Wins.

Some players are just better with RISP.

Jose Bautista hitting with RISP over the years:
2011: .226
2010: .246
2009: .172
2008: .240
2007: .250


Adrian Gonzalez hitting with RISP over the years:
2011: .374
2010: .407
2009: .262
2008: .325
2007: .304

Over the last 5 years, Adrian Gonzalez's worst season in terms of batting average with RISP has been better than Bautista's best season, including his two monster seasons. Now, I realize Bautista in general doesn't hit for as good an average but even when you control for batting average, Gonzalez's batting average with RISP is better than his own overall batting average while Bautista's batting average with RISP is worse than his overall batting average.

Now, if you hit a lot of homeruns, you will have terrible HR/RBI ratios. Bonds in 2001-2004 had that phenomenon. However, his weak RBI numbers were due to the fact he was getting walked all the time. He hit .394 with RISP in 2004, .338 in 2003 (while winning the MVP with just 90 RBI), .376 in 2002, .382 in 2001. I'm bring up Bonds' stats because in general you need to be on a contending team to win MVP (as we saw Tejada win MVP over Arod a few years ago). Bonds managed to win MVP with low RBI numbers and without being on a playoff team but he need ridiculous numbers to do it.

So, while Bautista's stats are good this year, they aren't so mind popping that someone like Gonzalez can't win it. In fact, if they continue on their present course, I think Gonzalez will probably win it over Bautista. And deservedly so. Gonzalez has many more RBI than Bautista because he hits better than Bautista in pressure situations. There's something to be said for being able to hit in meaningful games, in meaningful situations. I'm not sure Jose Bautista is still Jose Bautista if you put him in a pennant race.