CY Young / MVP candidates nearing the All-Star Break

[braden]

Feng,

There's a lot of validity to what you're saying but it's also missing a ton. First off, batting average only tells a very small part of the story. Bautista's OBP with runners in scoring position is .510. That's insane and shows he essentially doesn't get anything to hit.

Also, I think it's fairly short-sighted to say Bautista's numbers aren't eye-popping. This is a guy who through the first 40% of the season was quite literally having one of the greatest handful of seasons in the history of the game. He currently leads the majors in OBP and SLG and his wOBA is 40 points higher than Gonzalez's.

I've never been one to put much, if any, stock in RISP (and the like) stats. And I'd be saying that if Bautista was hitting .500 with RISP. My judgment doesn't get clouded simply because I see a guy every day. There are far too many factors involved with small samples. And all that said, there have been a few posts, including yours, that seem to suggest Bautista struggles with RISP. His OPS is .978. Adrian's is .989.

 

[SeattleSports]

Am I missing something ? Is there anyone close to pineda right now for al roy?

 

[alabamalongsnake]

Am I missing something ? Is there anyone close to pineda right now for al roy?

He would get my vote. I'm assuming other folks in contention would be Aaron Crow, possibly Hosmer and maybe Mark Trumbo.

On the NL side - I think Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrell are separating themselves although Danny Espinoza can't be left out of the discussion although his average needs to creep up.

 

[fengzhang]

Feng,

There's a lot of validity to what you're saying but it's also missing a ton. First off, batting average only tells a very small part of the story. Bautista's OBP with runners in scoring position is .510. That's insane and shows he essentially doesn't get anything to hit.

Also, I think it's fairly short-sighted to say Bautista's numbers aren't eye-popping. This is a guy who through the first 40% of the season was quite literally having one of the greatest handful of seasons in the history of the game. He currently leads the majors in OBP and SLG and his wOBA is 40 points higher than Gonzalez's.

I've never been one to put much, if any, stock in RISP (and the like) stats. And I'd be saying that if Bautista was hitting .500 with RISP. My judgment doesn't get clouded simply because I see a guy every day. There are far too many factors involved with small samples. And all that said, there have been a few posts, including yours, that seem to suggest Bautista struggles with RISP. His OPS is .978. Adrian's is .989.

I agree with you that Bautista likely doesn't get much to hit. But, that doesn't excuse a batting average with RISP that's 100 points less than your overall batting average. I agree with you that RBI don't always tell the whole story. But, when one guy is hitting .370+ with RISP and one guy is hitting .220 with RISP and the first guy is leading the league in both batting average and RBI by a lot as well as playing in meaningful games, I think the first guy will win MVP while the second guy will win the Hank Aaron award or whatever it's called. I actually do feel that Adrian Gonzalez is one of the most clutch players in the game and more clutch than Bautista. If I needed to win a game or a playoff series and I had to have either Bautista or Gonzalez on my team, I honestly would pick Gonzalez.

You keep talking about small sample sizes because obviously you expect some regression back to the mean to happen in the 2nd half. That's probably where we differ. I just think Gonzalez is more clutch and I don't think it's a fluke he hit over .400 with RISP last year and over .370 this year. If you only extrapolate their first half numbers, I think if Gonzalez finishes with a high batting average, 30+ HR's, and 150 RBI and his .588 slugging percentage and the red sox get into the playoffs while Bautistia finishes with 50+ HR's, 110 RBI, and a .680 slugging percnetage and the Blue Jays finish 10 games under .500, I think Gonzalez will win the MVP. I don't think he'll destroy Bautista but I honestly don't think the voting will be close either. Being able to play on a playoff team or at least contend for the playoffs mean a lot when it comes to MVP voting. Arod winning the MVP in 2004 is really the only incidence of a player from a non-contending team to win the MVP since 2000 (a span of 20 MVP winners) and that was probably a makeup from 2003 when Tejada won over Arod.

 

[AndruwHRJones]

one problem for Bautista, he plays in Canada and no one cares

As evidenced by his record number of all star votes this year?

 

[cowboysrule48]

I'm surprised how many people think Sabathia should be in the top-3 when it comes to consideration for the Cy Young.

 

[alabamalongsnake]

I'm surprised how many people think Sabathia should be in the top-3 when it comes to consideration for the Cy Young.

I think he's bound to finish right about 5 or 6. Verlander should win it going away if he does even close to in the second half what he did in the first.

 

[scotty21690]

Feng,

There's a lot of validity to what you're saying but it's also missing a ton. First off, batting average only tells a very small part of the story. Bautista's OBP with runners in scoring position is .510. That's insane and shows he essentially doesn't get anything to hit.

Also, I think it's fairly short-sighted to say Bautista's numbers aren't eye-popping. This is a guy who through the first 40% of the season was quite literally having one of the greatest handful of seasons in the history of the game. He currently leads the majors in OBP and SLG and his wOBA is 40 points higher than Gonzalez's.

I've never been one to put much, if any, stock in RISP (and the like) stats. And I'd be saying that if Bautista was hitting .500 with RISP. My judgment doesn't get clouded simply because I see a guy every day. There are far too many factors involved with small samples. And all that said, there have been a few posts, including yours, that seem to suggest Bautista struggles with RISP. His OPS is .978. Adrian's is .989.

Bautista gets a walk once every three plate appearances with RISP. So yes, he gets pitched around a lot. For the other 2/3s of his PA with RISP he gets pitched to, and from seeing the stats he doesn't do nearly [as] well in those situations [as he does with no RISP].

Yes, his .510 OBP with RISP is very good...BUT that is mainly because he walks so much in that situation. A walk doesn't score any runs unless the bases are loaded. It is leaving it up to the next hitter to drive in runs. If I was the manager I want my best hitter to swing at any good pitch he sees in that situation so he can drive in the runs. You mention his OPS in that situation as compared to Gonz...well I am sure that stat goes right out the window when it comes to runs created.

What amazes me is how many more RBI Gonz has over Bautista, considering he has 11 less HRs. I did the math and if Bautista has as many PA as Gonz, then he would have 5 more RBI...still 13 less than Gonzalez. (Stats not including todays game)

Now I realize I am going to hear, well yada yada Gonz has more PA with RISP yada yada. Well that may be true, but Gonzalez would have more RBI even if Bautista has the same amount of total PA[370-giving him 5 RBI] as well as having the same amount of PA with RISP[123-giving him 7 RBI].


Bautista may be having an incredible season, but that doesn't mean he is the most valuable player.



Please note that if the season ended now I believe Bautista would finish 2nd in MVP voting, and I am not trying to say that Bautista is a bad hitter or anything like that....just the fact that in those big moment make or break a game situations he has not lived up to his seasonal numbers up to this point. An MVP player should be one of the best hitters in clutch situations, hands down.

 

[scotty21690]

I'm surprised how many people think Sabathia should be in the top-3 when it comes to consideration for the Cy Young.

I think he's bound to finish right about 5 or 6. Verlander should win it going away if he does even close to in the second half what he did in the first.

Jared Weaver might have something to say about that.

 

[elmalo]

Is Prince even the MVP of Milwaukee?

I would think Fielder and Braun take votes from each other.

They might but I would say the edge goes to Fielder. All I know is the Mets and the Dodgers are both 10 games back and that usually doesn't translate well toward MVP votes

The Mets should be about 20 games back. Reyes is the only reason that they are anywhere near the wild card.

 

[elmalo]

I'm surprised how many people think Sabathia should be in the top-3 when it comes to consideration for the Cy Young.

It might have something to do with the fact that he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

 

[All The Hype]

I'm surprised how many people think Sabathia should be in the top-3 when it comes to consideration for the Cy Young.

It might have something to do with the fact that he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Not this year he's not.

 

[elmalo]

I'm surprised how many people think Sabathia should be in the top-3 when it comes to consideration for the Cy Young.

It might have something to do with the fact that he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Not this year he's not.

How do you figure that?