daveh's top 125 prospects for '11

[DaveH]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/2/8/1953200/daveh33s-top-125-prospect-list-for-2011

I'll link to my original thread on minorleagueball, as it contains some commentary and questions-answered, as well as my thought process and explanation to how I rank.

I'll list it in a straight list here though, as I know most appreciate just seeing the list that way.

1. Bryce Harper -OF, WAS
2. Wil Myers -OF, KC
3. Mike Trout -OF, LAA
4. Domonic Brown -OF, PHI
5. Mike Moustakas -3B, KC
6. Julio Teheran -RHP, ATL
7. Dustin Ackley -2B, SEA
8. Matt Moore -LHP, TB
9. Jeremy Hellickson -RHP, TB
10. Eric Hosmer -1B, KC
11. Shelby Miller -RHP, STL
12. Jesus Montero -C/DH, NYY
13. Aroldis Chapman -LHP, CIN
14. Freddie Freeman -1B, ATL
15. Zach Britton -LHP, BAL
16. Manny Machado -SS, BAL
17. Mike Minor -LHP, ATL
18. Jameson Taillon -RHP, PIT
19. Michael Pineda -RHP, SEA
20. Martin Perez -LHP, TEX
21. Mike Montgomery -LHP, KC
22. Kyle Drabek -RHP, TOR
23. Desmond Jennings -OF, TB
24. Aaron Hicks -OF, MIN
25. John Lamb -LHP, KC
26. Kyle Gibson -RHP, MIN
27. Lonnie Chisenhall -3B, CLE
28. Jacob Turner -RHP, DET
29. Brett Lawrie -2B/3B, TOR
30. Brandon Belt -1B, SF
31. Derek Norris -C, WAS
32. Chris Sale -LHP, CHW
33. Brett Jackson -OF, CHC [Jenrry Mejia -RHP, NYM in 33-50 range]
34. Dee Gordon -SS, LAD
35. Chris Dwyer -LHP, KC
36. Drew Pomeranz _LHP, CLE
37. Billy Hamilton -SS/2B, CIN
38. Devin Mesoraco -C, CIN
39. Chris Archer -RHP, TB
40. Danny Duffy -LHP, KC
41. Manny Banuelos -LHP, NYY
42. Jurickson Profar -SS, TEX
43. Randall Delgado -RHP, ATL
44. Jonathan Singleton -1B, PHI
45. Gary Sanchez -C, NYY
46. Grant Green -SS, OAK
47. Jason Kipnis -2B, CLE
48. Jarrod Parker -RHP, ARI
49. Tyler Matzek -LHP, COL
50. Casey Kelly -RHP, SD


51. Nick Franklin -SS/2B, SEA
52. Trey McNutt -RHP, CHC
53. Jordan Lyles -RHP, HOU
54. Zack Wheeler -RHP, SFG
55. Miguel Sano -1B/3B, MIN
56. Brody Colvin -RHP, PHI
57. Zach Lee -RHP, LAD
58. Jean Segura -2B/SS, LAA
59. Simon Castro -RHP, SD
60. Alex White -RHP, CLE
61. Wilmer Flores -SS/3B, NYM
62. Jerry Sands -OF, LAD
63. Jarred Cosart -RHP, PHI
64. Dellin Betances -RHP, NYY
65. Anthony Ranaudo -RHP, BOS
66. Garret Richards -RHP, LAA
67. Tyler Skaggs -LHP, ARI
68. Drake Britton -LHP, BOS
69. Josh Sale -OF, TB
70. Jose Iglesias -SS, BOS
71. Yonder Alonso -1B/OF, CIN
72. Hak-Ju Lee -SS, TB
73. Tony Sanchez -C, PIT
74. Garin Cecchini -SS/3B, BOS
75. Matt Lipka -SS, ATL
76. Nick Weglarz -OF, CLE
77. Chris Carter -1B/OF, OAK
78. Fabio Martinez-Mesa -RHP, LAA
79. Aaron Sanchez -RHP, TOR
80. A.J. Cole -RHP, WAS
81. Nick Castellanos -3B, DET
82. Jake Odorizzi -RHP, KC
83. Christian Yelich -1B/OF, FLA
84. Wilin Rosario -C, COL
85. Arodys Vizcaino -RHP, ATL
86. Trayvon Robinson OF, LAD
87. Robbie Erlin -LHP, TEX
88. Kaleb Cowart -3B, LAA
89. Brett Eibner -OF, KC
90. Chris Nelson -SS/2B, COL
91. Andrew Oliver -LHP, DET
92. Asher Wojciechowski -RHP, TOR
93. Danny Espinosa -SS/2B, WAS
94. Reymond Fuentes -OF, SD
95. Stetson Allie -RHP, PIT
96. Chad James -LHP, FLA
97. Enny Romero -LHP, TB
98. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, HOU
99. Nolan Arenado -3B, COL
100. Alex Wimmers -RHP, MIN


101. Matt Davidson -3B/1B, ARI
102. Zach Stewart -RHP, TOR
103. Alex Colome -RHP, TB
104. Jaff Decker -OF, SD
105. Travis D'Arnaud -C, TOR
106. Rubby De La Rosa -RHP, LAD
107. Yasmani Grandal -C, CIN
108. Jared Mitchell -OF, CHW
109. Andrew Brackman -RHP, NYY
110. Tim Beckham -SS, TB
111. Hank Conger -C, LAA
112. Jake McGee -LHP, TB
113. Chris Withrow -RHP, LAD
114. Daniel Fields -OF, DET
115. Cesar Puello -OF, NYM
116. Alex Torres -LHP, TB
117. Craig Kimbrel -RHP, ATL
118. J.P. Arencibia -C, TOR
119. Zack Cox -3B, STL
120. Engel Beltre -OF, TEX
121. Drew Cumberland -SS, SD
122. Anthony Rizzo -1B, SD
123. Aaron Crow -RHP, KC
124. Matt Dominguez -3B, FLA
125. Yorman Rodriguez -OF, CIN

Luis Heredia -RHP, PIT
Michael Choice -OF, OAK
Tanner Scheppers -RHP, TEX
Christian Colon -SS, KC
Christian Friedrich -LHP, COL
Starling Marte -OF, PIT
Peter Tago -RHP, COL
Carlos Perez -C, TOR
Tyler Chatwood -RHP, LAA
Delino DeShields -2B, HOU
Scott Elbert -LHP, LAD
Juan Urbina -LHP, NYM
Drew Vettleson -OF, TB
Tyrell Jenkins -RHP, STL
Donovan Tate -OF, SD
Liam Hendriks -RHP, MIN
Trevor May -RHP, PHI

 

[sheetskout]

It could be me, but I'm a little weirded out by Wilmer Flores at #61.

 

[nbailey]

My thoughts (as an Astros guy)

Lyles is a little low - maybe not the highest ceiling, but his floor is as high as anyone in the minors
Folty finally gets some love - clearly he's behind Taillon as a prep arm, but he's got huge upside

You're going to hear from the Trout and Montero gang, but I think it's a great list. Thanks for sharing.

 

[hail2thevictors]

Not real sure what would make Ackley rank above Montero on any list. Neither offer a whole lot defensively, and I think just about anyone would take Montero's bat.

That is the thing that sticks out to me from this list.

 

[shayscards79]

Randal Grichuk belongs ahead of lot of those guys on the bottom.

 

[DaveH]

It could be me, but I'm a little weirded out by Wilmer Flores at #61.

too high/low? or am i missing some reference?


bailey - would disagree. highest floor can't belong to any pitcher. and if you are just referring to pitchers, it'd probably go to someone with a better fb. Chapman is probably the best bet for the highest pitching floor. maybe Matt Moore. Moore's curve/fb and Chapman's fb, plus their left-handedness, mean that at the very least, assuming their arms don't fall off, that they could have a job in an MLB bullpen. I don't think Lyles has quite a good enough out-pitch/stuff to get through an MLB inning. [talking absolute floors here]

hail- Ackley offers a whole lot defensively if he can stick at 2B. at that position, he doesn't even have to hit all that well to be league-average, and if he can't hack it there, then he is said to have the tools to possibly play CF. Montero is not a good catcher, and supposedly wouldn't be very good at 1B either. I would say Ackley holds much better defensive value as I don't believe Montero is a good bet to stick at catcher much, if at all, at the MLB level.

 

[Anthony K.]

My thoughts (as an Astros guy)

Lyles is a little low - maybe not the highest ceiling, but his floor is as high as anyone in the minors
Folty finally gets some love - clearly he's behind Taillon as a prep arm, but he's got huge upside

You're going to hear from the Trout and Montero gang, but I think it's a great list. Thanks for sharing.

I agree with you on both of your points. I feel like Lyles is a solid top 50 prospect (I'd put him around 40ish) who proved himself last year. May not be a #1 type pitcher, but will be a great #2 guy for the Astros in the next two years or so.

I know very little about Folty, but I am glad to see that the Astros system has some decent SP coming up through the pipes (Lyles, Folty, Seaton) and hopefully thy all can contribute in two years or so.

Great list overall Dave. Thanks for sharing!!

 

[All The Hype]

Nice list, thanks for posting. Good to see some fresh names in new places than they are on the lists I've seen so far.

 

[200lbhockeyplayer]

Alright, which programming nerd out there is going to create a list compiler to provide an average ranking across the board for all lists, regardless of qualifications?

Seriously, hop on it.

 

[Jaypers]

2. Wil Myers -OF, KC (Great bat but needs to learn a new position. Too high IMO.)
8. Matt Moore -LHP, TB (Big fan of his but I'd like to see him dominate above A-ball before putting him in the top 10. Helly should be above him.)
17. Mike Minor -LHP, ATL (I swear I don't understand the love affair people have for this guy.)
45. Gary Sanchez -C, NYY (More upside than any Yankee, IMO. 20's for me.)
78. Fabio Martinez-Mesa -RHP, LAA (Great stuff, but lacks a lot of command.)
84. Wilin Rosario -C, COL (Baffling you have him this low.)
115. Cesar Puello -OF, NYM (In terms of ceiling he's the Mets' equivilent of G. Sanchez. Way too low, IMO.)
119. Zack Cox -3B, STL (Perhaps the best bat in last year's draft, according to many. Hope you're not ranking him this low because of the AFL?)
122. Anthony Rizzo -1B, SD (Soon to be SD's starting 1B. Don't understand this ranking.)

 

[Jaypers]

double post

 

[cgilmo]

I think you have my guy waaaaay too high, and you have guys I don't like waaaay too low.

 

[DaveH]

2. Wil Myers -OF, KC (Great bat but needs to learn a new position. Too high IMO.)
8. Matt Moore -LHP, TB (Big fan of his but I'd like to see him dominate above A-ball before putting him in the top 10. Helly should be above him.)
17. Mike Minor -LHP, ATL (I swear I don't understand the love affair people have for this guy.)
45. Gary Sanchez -C, NYY (More upside than any Yankee, IMO. 20's for me.)
78. Fabio Martinez-Mesa -RHP, LAA (Great stuff, but lacks a lot of command.)
84. Wilin Rosario -C, COL (Baffling you have him this low.)
115. Cesar Puello -OF, NYM (In terms of ceiling he's the Mets' equivilent of G. Sanchez. Way too low, IMO.)
119. Zack Cox -3B, STL (Perhaps the best bat in last year's draft, according to many. Hope you're not ranking him this low because of the AFL?)
122. Anthony Rizzo -1B, SD (Soon to be SD's starting 1B. Don't understand this ranking.)

hey JP, did you click on the link to minorleagueball? A lot of short commentaries and replies over there.

2- going from catcher to the OF is only going to help his bat. He was raw at the catcher spot and its the most physically demanding position on the diamond. Also, Wil's swing is my favorite in the minors.
8- All MM does is dominate. not his fault the Rays move their pitchers along one level for each season. His ceiling is higher than Helly's, and I like his chances of becoming even better with his BB%, so this is why he's over Helly.
17- his stuff is vastly improved. strong #2/3 ceiling, and he has a high floor for a SP.
45- i'm admittedly cautious with young catchers. so many things need to go right.
78- yes, needs better command, but his stuff is good enough to be top 80. because if his command was better, he's a top 15 prospect for me.
84- his injury is a tough one for catchers, and I am not sure yet if it will affect his mobility behind the plate
115- love the swing, but he's an OFer. Sanchez is much higher because he could stick at C
119- not a big fan of his bat. a move to 2B would help though
122- league average 1B to me. decent power, but nothing else really sticks out to me. hard one to rank though, I admit.


gilmo - haha, sorry. i'll warn you next year

 

[aarne13]

Great read!

No love for Adeiny Hechavarria? You have Iglesias in there but not Adeiny. He struggled in Hi-A in his pro debut but definitely picked it up when he was bumped up to AA. A language barrier in Dunedin didn't help. He's ML ready defensively but needs more AB's to be more consistent at the plate.

I thought JPA, Zach Stewart and Carlos Perez were too low although I might be a bit biased.
Syndergaard is another one to watch out for. I'm really looking forward to another minor league season as the Jays have a lot of prospects to keep an eye on.