Declaration of War on WAR

[James52411]

I very much agree with the argument that WAR is flawed as a statistic because statistics measuring defense and baserunning are flawed. This article is an excellent synopsis of the problems with putting too much emphasis on WAR when evaluating performance.

RealClearSports - Going to WAR With Baseball Statistics

 

[UMich92]

Nice read. Thanks for posting.

 

[Austin]

Defense is factored too heavily in WAR.
Andrelton Simmons and his .248 avg, 17 home runs and 58 rbi came in 5TH IN THE NL in WAR.
Enough said.

 

[jbhofmann]

Defense is factored too heavily in WAR.
Andrelton Simmons and his .248 avg, 17 home runs and 58 rbi came in 5TH IN THE NL in WAR.
Enough said.

On average a starter hits what 4.5 times per game?
Plays their position 9 innings?


You have typically 4-5 times to impact a game offensively.
You have in most cases more than 35-40 times to impact a game defensively.

We've been conditioned to not look at defensive stats because there are so few and nobody understands them.



Offensive linemen have almost no stats but are arguably the most important unit on a football field. Most people don't understand who are great ones because there aren't quantifiable stats to show who are.

 

[predatorkj]

On average a starter hits what 4.5 times per game?
Plays their position 9 innings?


You have typically 4-5 times to impact a game offensively.
You have in most cases more than 35-40 times to impact a game defensively.

We've been conditioned to not look at defensive stats because there are so few and nobody understands them.



Offensive linemen have almost no stats but are arguably the most important unit on a football field. Most people don't understand who are great ones because there aren't quantifiable stats to show who are.

Very true!

 

[ronniedp23]

On average a starter hits what 4.5 times per game?
Plays their position 9 innings?


You have typically 4-5 times to impact a game offensively.
You have in most cases more than 35-40 times to impact a game defensively.

We've been conditioned to not look at defensive stats because there are so few and nobody understands them.



Offensive linemen have almost no stats but are arguably the most important unit on a football field. Most people don't understand who are great ones because there aren't quantifiable stats to show who are.

Great point.

WAR is a good tool for a player's baseline contributions, in a bubble without considering situational play.

It should not be overused.

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[jbhofmann]

Depends on which WAR you look at. WAR doesn't even consider RBIs so not sure why you listed them.

I dislike war but for measuring what a player's baseline contribution is it isn't a bad tool. It also isn't one that should be over used.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Freedom Card Board mobile app

Wha?

 

[ronniedp23]

Wha?

It was a reply fail. Was trying to to reply to the post you answered and goofed royally.

But WAR doesn't include RBIs unless the formula has changed.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Freedom Card Board mobile app

 

[James52411]

On average a starter hits what 4.5 times per game?
Plays their position 9 innings?


You have typically 4-5 times to impact a game offensively.
You have in most cases more than 35-40 times to impact a game defensively.

We've been conditioned to not look at defensive stats because there are so few and nobody understands them.



Offensive linemen have almost no stats but are arguably the most important unit on a football field. Most people don't understand who are great ones because there aren't quantifiable stats to show who are.

I agree with you that defense is important. The bigger question for WAR is can the value of defensive performance be accurately measured. At this point, looking at basic statistics such as errors, assists, putouts and fielding percentage, combined with the "eye test" of a player's range and arm, provides a more accurate evaluation of defensive ability than "advanced" defensive metrics. Unfortunately, very imprecise "advanced" defensive statistics are used in calculating WAR, which reduces the usefulness of that statistic in evaluating a player's worth.

 

[U L Washington Rookie]

On average a starter hits what 4.5 times per game?
Plays their position 9 innings?


You have typically 4-5 times to impact a game offensively.
You have in most cases more than 35-40 times to impact a game defensively.

We've been conditioned to not look at defensive stats because there are so few and nobody understands them.



Offensive linemen have almost no stats but are arguably the most important unit on a football field. Most people don't understand who are great ones because there aren't quantifiable stats to show who are.

Nitpick: I think you're significantly over-estimating the # of plays a defender is generally directly involved in. For a SS, it's a large #, but nowhere close to 40. 9 innings at 1.5 baserunners per inning, ignoring double plays, you get 40.5 batters per game. You need to remove Ks, balls hit to other positions and never passed along to the particluar defender, etc from that total.

 

[jbhofmann]

Nitpick: I think you're significantly over-estimating the # of plays a defender is generally directly involved in. For a SS, it's a large #, but nowhere close to 40. 9 innings at 1.5 baserunners per inning, ignoring double plays, you get 40.5 batters per game. You need to remove Ks, balls hit to other positions and never passed along to the particluar defender, etc from that total.

Meant for that to be understood.

Over 162 games players play defense exponentially more than offense.

 

[U L Washington Rookie]

Over 162 games players play defense exponentially more than offense.

Yeah, um, that's not true. It's actually contradicted by your earlier errant post. It's closer to 'linearly more' than 'exponentially more'.

'Playing defense' on many plays when one's team is on defense isn't much different than 'standing in the dugout' when one's team is on offense. And more to my point - 'playing defense' on plays that accrue some 'value above replacement level' has a much smaller (roughly) linear factor than 35-per-5-plate-appearances.

 

[RogerMarisCollector61]

I very much agree with the argument that WAR is flawed as a statistic because statistics measuring defense and baserunning are flawed. This article is an excellent synopsis of the problems with putting too much emphasis on WAR when evaluating performance.

RealClearSports - Going to WAR With Baseball Statistics

Terrible article. He uses Alfonso Soriano as his example, stating that he went from a negative uzr to a positive uzr. What he failed to realize is that Soriano changed positions from 2nd base to left field. He consistently ranked as a terrible 2nd baseman and has consistently been ranked as a very good outfielder in terms of uzr.

If you look at fangraphs WAR, you'll see that players' defensive and baserunning metrics are very similar to widespread perception about them for the most part. All WAR does is attempt to quantify the AMOUNT of runs the player adds to the team through defense, baserunning, and hitting. That is all totaled into one number, which is the players WAR. You can't say someone is better than someone else because their fWAR is .3 higher... but if you see 10.4 vs 7.6 there's a clear gap there.

 

[James52411]

Terrible article. He uses Alfonso Soriano as his example, stating that he went from a negative uzr to a positive uzr. What he failed to realize is that Soriano changed positions from 2nd base to left field. He consistently ranked as a terrible 2nd baseman and has consistently been ranked as a very good outfielder in terms of uzr.

If you look at fangraphs WAR, you'll see that players' defensive and baserunning metrics are very similar to widespread perception about them for the most part. All WAR does is attempt to quantify the AMOUNT of runs the player adds to the team through defense, baserunning, and hitting. That is all totaled into one number, which is the players WAR. You can't say someone is better than someone else because their fWAR is .3 higher... but if you see 10.4 vs 7.6 there's a clear gap there.

Trust me, I watched Alfonso Soriano play left field in 2007, and he was atrocious. He routinely misjudged fly balls, got terrible jumps, and had terrible range. I think he had a lot of outfield assists because other teams ran on him constantly, even when they normally wouldn't have, because he was so atrocious otherwise. If UZR says Soriano in 2007 had the best defensive season of any player over a 10 year span, the statistic is flawed. It would be like an "advanced metric" somehow saying that Josh Hamilton this year had the best offensive season of any player in the last decade.

 

[jbhofmann]

How does bad defensive metrics explain Carlos Gomez' off the charts dWAR

That dude robbed a ton of HRs and covers acres of ground.

 

[jbhofmann]

Yeah, um, that's not true. It's actually contradicted by your earlier errant post. It's closer to 'linearly more' than 'exponentially more'.

'Playing defense' on many plays when one's team is on defense isn't much different than 'standing in the dugout' when one's team is on offense. And more to my point - 'playing defense' on plays that accrue some 'value above replacement level' has a much smaller (roughly) linear factor than 35-per-5-plate-appearances.

I like how you're the smartest guy in the room.

Take Simmons for example. He has 100 more out outs or assists then plate appearances this year. Those don't even count the number times he's been involved in the defensive play not involving an out.

The mere presence of some defensive players hold runners from advancing, change strategy at the plate and determine outcomes of games.

Defense is not standing in a dugout.

 

[MansGame]

I'll need to read...


---
Buying Albert Belle cards! PM me!

 

[hive17]

I like how you're the smartest guy in the room.

Take Simmons for example. He has 100 more out outs or assists then plate appearances this year. Those don't even count the number times he's been involved in the defensive play not involving an out.

The mere presence of some defensive players hold runners from advancing, change strategy at the plate and determine outcomes of games.

Defense is not standing in a dugout.

I value defense, but at the end of the day, no one ever won a game by scoring 0 runs. So no matter how we value defense, offense will ALWAYS be intrinsically more valuable than defense when is comes to wins. And since WAR is WINS Above Replacement...

 

[jbhofmann]

If you allow 0 runs I'm going to guess that team wins a ton of games.

 

[hive17]

If you allow 0 runs I'm going to guess that team wins a ton of games.

Pitchers have MUCH more to do with that than the defense; hence FIP, WHIP, and other pitching metrics. When one defensive player is responsible for 27 outs in a game, then you might have something. Again, I'm not saying that defense isn't important; but given the topic, I argue that offense, when it comes to wins, is more important, since a team cannot win a game without offense. In fact, the only way to win a game without any offense would be if there were a breakdown in defense (i.e., HBP, BB, WP, errors and such). How often does that happen?