Evaluate my prospect portfolio

[Topnotchsy]

I don't really understand how people can vote without knowing what price you bought in at. For all we know, at current market prices are already making/losing a ton of money. Fact is, pretty much every card goes up or down significantly many times over the years, and depending on the prices you paid, there's no such thing as a card or player that is a "bad investment."

The only one could evaluate something like this is to assume that I paid market prices. Look at growth potential.

I guess, but I don't assume you bought all of these in the last few days?

 

[soccerman034]

I don't really understand how people can vote without knowing what price you bought in at. For all we know, at current market prices are already making/losing a ton of money. Fact is, pretty much every card goes up or down significantly many times over the years, and depending on the prices you paid, there's no such thing as a card or player that is a "bad investment."

The only one could evaluate something like this is to assume that I paid market prices. Look at growth potential.

I guess, but I don't assume you bought all of these in the last few days?

Ha why of course not, but its still a means to evaluate; I honestly don't remember the prices I paid on many of these items...I tend to just list when a player gets hot, and consider it a good transaction if I sold at near a peak price.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I don't really understand how people can vote without knowing what price you bought in at. For all we know, at current market prices are already making/losing a ton of money. Fact is, pretty much every card goes up or down significantly many times over the years, and depending on the prices you paid, there's no such thing as a card or player that is a "bad investment."

The only one could evaluate something like this is to assume that I paid market prices. Look at growth potential.

I guess, but I don't assume you bought all of these in the last few days?

Ha why of course not, but its still a means to evaluate; I honestly don't remember the prices I paid on many of these items...I tend to just list when a player gets hot, and consider it a good transaction if I sold at near a peak price.

I'm the same way. I do usually remember the prices I paid, but don't keep too on top of it.

Assuming as you said that people are looking at current prices, I imagine you are not upset at the responses. If too many people thought your investments were incredible, it should mean that they are all buying in right now, and have bumped up the price. Looking back, many of my best investments were when it seemed like no one agreed with me.

Best of luck with school as well as your investments.

 

[soccerman034]

I don't really understand how people can vote without knowing what price you bought in at. For all we know, at current market prices are already making/losing a ton of money. Fact is, pretty much every card goes up or down significantly many times over the years, and depending on the prices you paid, there's no such thing as a card or player that is a "bad investment."

The only one could evaluate something like this is to assume that I paid market prices. Look at growth potential.

I guess, but I don't assume you bought all of these in the last few days?

Ha why of course not, but its still a means to evaluate; I honestly don't remember the prices I paid on many of these items...I tend to just list when a player gets hot, and consider it a good transaction if I sold at near a peak price.

I'm the same way. I do usually remember the prices I paid, but don't keep too on top of it.

Assuming as you said that people are looking at current prices, I imagine you are not upset at the responses. If too many people thought your investments were incredible, it should mean that they are all buying in right now, and have bumped up the price. Looking back, many of my best investments were when it seemed like no one agreed with me.

Best of luck with school as well as your investments.

Thanks for the response, I appreciate it! I have made it a point over the last few months (since the 08 draft products started to be released) to focus on sleepers and product exclusives (such as Ryan Pressly or Tyler Cline)...These guys are high ceiling players that are preforming, but are unheralded as of yet (which makes them low risk in terms of pricing)....I find that whenever I can find an investment that is relatively low risk in terms of pricing (say a Andrew Cashner Black Status Auto RC out of 1 for $100) with a high ceiling in terms of potential as a player, its hard to miss. Even if the player doesn't turn out, I am not out that much.....but if the player does turn out, I am getting a huge ROI.

 

[lisu]

Here's how I would look at it. You have mostly mid-tier prospects. If you were really doing a portfolio, you would want to break it out into 3 tiers.

1. High Risk High Reward
2. Medium Risk Medium Reward
3. Low Risk Low Reward

My concern with your portfolio is that you have mostly 1's and 2's. Personally, if I was going to have a portfolio of baseball cards, I would try to have a equal amount of 1's, 2's, and 3's to try to minimize the risk. That's probably why most people have rated your portfolio as mediocre. Good luck!

 

[soccerman034]

Here's how I would look at it. You have mostly mid-tier prospects. If you were really doing a portfolio, you would want to break it out into 3 tiers.

1. High Risk High Reward
2. Medium Risk Medium Reward
3. Low Risk Low Reward

My concern with your portfolio is that you have mostly 1's and 2's. Personally, if I was going to have a portfolio of baseball cards, I would try to have a equal amount of 1's, 2's, and 3's to try to minimize the risk. That's probably why most people have rated your portfolio as mediocre. Good luck!

Thanks for the response. The way I look at it, I bought most of my high risk prospecting ventures at low prices due to lack of general hype. Hell, I even bought several of my low risk prospects at really low prices....take for instance Danny Espinosa. I picked all of that stash for a combined cost of around $120...He has a very low floor due to his excellent glove at a premium position, and his ceiling has been boosted greatly this year due to his new found power. I can already tell you that I wont be loosing any money on that investment (that is unless he gets injured or other circumstances come into play) and my opportunity to profit is probably around 60% as long as he continues to progress.

 

[KandKCards]

Here's how I would look at it. You have mostly mid-tier prospects. If you were really doing a portfolio, you would want to break it out into 3 tiers.

1. High Risk High Reward
2. Medium Risk Medium Reward
3. Low Risk Low Reward

My concern with your portfolio is that you have mostly 1's and 2's. Personally, if I was going to have a portfolio of baseball cards, I would try to have a equal amount of 1's, 2's, and 3's to try to minimize the risk. That's probably why most people have rated your portfolio as mediocre. Good luck!

Yep, pretty much what I tried to say, this is just more coherent :lol:
And I can't believe people trying to make money on cards wouldn't keep track of buy prices and sale prices. I have a lot of them in my head, but I record everything anyway.

 

[lisu]

Here's how I would look at it. You have mostly mid-tier prospects. If you were really doing a portfolio, you would want to break it out into 3 tiers.

1. High Risk High Reward
2. Medium Risk Medium Reward
3. Low Risk Low Reward

My concern with your portfolio is that you have mostly 1's and 2's. Personally, if I was going to have a portfolio of baseball cards, I would try to have a equal amount of 1's, 2's, and 3's to try to minimize the risk. That's probably why most people have rated your portfolio as mediocre. Good luck!

Thanks for the response. The way I look at it, I bought most of my high risk prospecting ventures at low prices due to lack of general hype. Hell, I even bought several of my low risk prospects at really low prices....take for instance Danny Espinosa. I picked all of that stash for a combined cost of around $120...He has a very low floor due to his excellent glove at a premium position, and his ceiling has been boosted greatly this year due to his new found power. I can already tell you that I wont be loosing any money on that investment (that is unless he gets injured or other circumstances come into play) and my opportunity to profit is probably around 60% as long as he continues to progress.

Yes, I totally agree - I'm just pointing out some investing tips. That is if you want to use card collecting as an investment.

For example, I'll use my current stash as an example:

1's High Risk High Reward - Wendell Fairley, Eric Eiland
2's Medium Risk Medium Reward - Kevin Ahrens, James Simmons, Sean Doolittle, Justin Jackson, Greg Reynolds (he's going to be a 3 soon though), Henry Sosa
3's Low Risk Low Reward - Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, and some Mike Moustakas, Madison Bumgarner, Matt LaPorta, and Carlos Santana

It's kind of a tiering system for me - I like to keep some sleepers, but I also like to have some guys who have a decent shot to make it, and then some guys who have a really good shot of making it.

 

[soccerman034]

Here's how I would look at it. You have mostly mid-tier prospects. If you were really doing a portfolio, you would want to break it out into 3 tiers.

1. High Risk High Reward
2. Medium Risk Medium Reward
3. Low Risk Low Reward

My concern with your portfolio is that you have mostly 1's and 2's. Personally, if I was going to have a portfolio of baseball cards, I would try to have a equal amount of 1's, 2's, and 3's to try to minimize the risk. That's probably why most people have rated your portfolio as mediocre. Good luck!

Yep, pretty much what I tried to say, this is just more coherent :lol:
And I can't believe people trying to make money on cards wouldn't keep track of buy prices and sale prices. I have a lot of them in my head, but I record everything anyway.

I tried to do that in early 2008, but then cards started to become more of a job than an enjoyable hobby...I don't really prospect cards to make money, its more like a game I can use some excess income on. Every once and a while I will infuse some more cash in to my collection or portfolio; at the same time, I sometimes take some money out to buy things that I want or need. For the most part, I buy new cards with money I get from selling other cards. Its kind of cyclical in that sense.

 

[NECpilgrims8]

Here's how I would look at it. You have mostly mid-tier prospects. If you were really doing a portfolio, you would want to break it out into 3 tiers.

1. High Risk High Reward
2. Medium Risk Medium Reward
3. Low Risk Low Reward

My concern with your portfolio is that you have mostly 1's and 2's. Personally, if I was going to have a portfolio of baseball cards, I would try to have a equal amount of 1's, 2's, and 3's to try to minimize the risk. That's probably why most people have rated your portfolio as mediocre. Good luck!

Thanks for the response. The way I look at it, I bought most of my high risk prospecting ventures at low prices due to lack of general hype. Hell, I even bought several of my low risk prospects at really low prices....take for instance Danny Espinosa. I picked all of that stash for a combined cost of around $120...He has a very low floor due to his excellent glove at a premium position, and his ceiling has been boosted greatly this year due to his new found power. I can already tell you that I wont be loosing any money on that investment (that is unless he gets injured or other circumstances come into play) and my opportunity to profit is probably around 60% as long as he continues to progress.

I am not sure how you can say something like that with such conviction. You fail to take alot of variables into consideration when it comes to players like Espinosa.

1. How many cards they have available on the market (Espinosa has a TON).
2. Their organization (He plays for the Nats and they get little love, no matter what they do).
3. Their ultimate ceiling (Espinosa's ceiling doesn't translate to anything but big league regular, at best. His tools, besides defense, don't scream star).

I just don't see the vision you have with your buys.

 

[soccerman034]

Here's how I would look at it. You have mostly mid-tier prospects. If you were really doing a portfolio, you would want to break it out into 3 tiers.

1. High Risk High Reward
2. Medium Risk Medium Reward
3. Low Risk Low Reward

My concern with your portfolio is that you have mostly 1's and 2's. Personally, if I was going to have a portfolio of baseball cards, I would try to have a equal amount of 1's, 2's, and 3's to try to minimize the risk. That's probably why most people have rated your portfolio as mediocre. Good luck!

Thanks for the response. The way I look at it, I bought most of my high risk prospecting ventures at low prices due to lack of general hype. Hell, I even bought several of my low risk prospects at really low prices....take for instance Danny Espinosa. I picked all of that stash for a combined cost of around $120...He has a very low floor due to his excellent glove at a premium position, and his ceiling has been boosted greatly this year due to his new found power. I can already tell you that I wont be loosing any money on that investment (that is unless he gets injured or other circumstances come into play) and my opportunity to profit is probably around 60% as long as he continues to progress.

I am not sure how you can say something like that with such conviction. You fail to take alot of variables into consideration when it comes to players like Espinosa.

1. How many cards they have available on the market (Espinosa has a TON).
2. Their organization (He plays for the Nats and they get little love, no matter what they do).
3. Their ultimate ceiling (Espinosa's ceiling doesn't translate to anything but big league regular, at best. His tools, besides defense, don't scream star).

I just don't see the vision you have with your buys.

Espinosa doesn't have a ton of cards (he was featured in Elite /443, Contenders SPd, and Prime Cuts)....No chrome releases as yet.

Organization means next to nothing to me, with the exception of the true extremes such as Chicago, Boston, and New York. I have made good money off of National prospects (Marrero and Zimmermann come to mind), and don't think I will have any trouble doing that in the future either.

Espinosa's ceiling is higher than you may think; how many plus SS, who can switch hit, have power in the majors :?: I have great hopes for him in the future, especially if he can regain the contact rate he had in college.

As for my conviction in my buys, its no more or less than anyone elses....prospecting tends to be a crap-shoot at best most of the time.