Welcome to our community

Be apart of something great, join today!

Fernando Tatis extended...

WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,026
Oklahoma
Great gamble by the Padres. They're locking up a guy that everyone thinks is a future superstar for 24 million and change a year for his whole prime and almost none of a player's normal decline. They also got out ahead of the new CBA while will likely feature groundshaking changes to the arbitration system. If he pans out as a routine All-Star it wouldn't surprise me if they saved $60+ million over the term of this deal.
 

Therion

Well-known member
Nov 19, 2008
5,503
Looooooosiana!
The length of that deal is insane. What is the probability that he can maintain that production, fairly injury-free, for 14 years? The Padres history of crazy long deals will, in my opinion, go down as one of the worst strategies ever employed by a team actively trying not to lose.
 

WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,026
Oklahoma
The length of that deal is insane. What is the probability that he can maintain that production, fairly injury-free, for 14 years? The Padres history of crazy long deals will, in my opinion, go down as one of the worst strategies ever employed by a team actively trying not to lose.

He just turned 22. The chance they get 10 injury free All Star level years out of that 14 is pretty high. This isn't like signing Votto to an 11 year deal at age 30 or Pujols to a 10 year deal at 32*.

If you're going to sign a long term deal like this then a 22 year old who currently plays a position at the top of the defensive spectrum is the guy you want to do it with.
 

Therion

Well-known member
Nov 19, 2008
5,503
Looooooosiana!
He just turned 22. The chance they get 10 injury free All Star level years out of that 14 is pretty high. This isn't like signing Votto to an 11 year deal at age 30 or Pujols to a 10 year deal at 32*.

If you're going to sign a long term deal like this then a 22 year old who currently plays a position at the top of the defensive spectrum is the guy you want to do it with.

"is pretty high"

Too funny. How many 22 year olds followed up a killer rookie season with TEN YEARS of All-Star level play? This deal *could* turn out to be incredible, but it is FAR more likely that in five years we will see a bottom dwelling Padres team with three massive contracts burying them.
 

WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,026
Oklahoma
"is pretty high"

Too funny. How many 22 year olds followed up a killer rookie season with TEN YEARS of All-Star level play? This deal *could* turn out to be incredible, but it is FAR more likely that in five years we will see a bottom dwelling Padres team with three massive contracts burying them.

Off the top of my head...Pujols, Machado, Votto, Trout, Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, Cano, Utley, Rollins, Longoria, Goldschmidt, Rendon, David Wright and probably 30 others easily. In the last 15 years there have been 65 players put up the ~30 fWAR it would take to make this contract break even without even considering inflation or the coming CBA changes.

He's already followed up his rookie year with 1 All Star level (really MVP level) year so I guess he needs 9 more in the next 14 to meet your standard. I'm not invested in the guy in any substantial way and I'm not a Padres fan but I sure the hell wish the Cardinals had ponied up the extra 15k when they had the opportunity to sign him as an international player and I'd have no issue having this contract on the Cardinals' books.

It's $24 million a year. He doesn't have to play at a Hall of Fame level to blow the top out of the surplus value on that deal. The CBA is changing after this season and those cheap years for superstar players that teams used to get thanks to the ridiculous arbitration system are going away. Kudos to the Padres for getting out ahead of it and signing a guy who looks like a foundational cornerstone and face of baseball to a contract that will likely end up saving them $100 million or more. Is there risk? Sure it's 14 years. If you're going to take a risk like that though you want to do it with a 22 year old who plays outstanding defense at the top of the defensive spectrum who already has 2 All Star caliber years in the majors behind his belt and looks like he could do more. Is he going to be a Gold Glove caliber SS at 33 after ten years of this deal? Maybe not but he can slide over to 3B a la Ripken.


You're addressing two different points and trying to say they're connected which they aren't. The Machado contract is fine. He'll be 36 when it ends. They bought his prime years at market rate. That's normal free agency. 5 years from now you have a 33 year old Machado at 30 million a year, a 27 year old (still middle of his prime) Tatis at 24 million, and a 35 year old Hosmer in his last contract year at 13. That's not going to cripple anyone.
 
Last edited:

Austin

Active member
Aug 7, 2008
5,683
Oahu, Hawaii
The length of that deal is insane. What is the probability that he can maintain that production, fairly injury-free, for 14 years?
The Padres know there's no way Tatis will stay there the full length of the contract. Small market teams sign these young players to monster contracts to lock them up and make them happy, then end up getting rid of them after a few years.

Tatis has a no-trade clause, but he'll demand a trade in a few years when the team stinks and the Padres need the cash. Like when Stanton signed the ridiculous deal in Miami. Everyone knew he'd be gone in a couple of years.
 
Last edited:

JVHaste

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2015
4,256
Vancouver WA
Let the 2024/5 speculation begin!! Will he go to NYY or Boston? I think LAD is out of the question due to being in the same division.
 

WCTYSON

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2014
7,219
The Padres know there's no way Tatis will stay there the full length of the contract. Small market teams sign these young players to monster contracts to lock them up and make them happy, then end up getting rid of them after a few years.

Tatis has a no-trade clause, but he'll demand a trade in a few years when the team stinks and the Padres need the cash. Like when Stanton signed the ridiculous deal in Miami. Everyone knew he'd be gone in a couple of years.

I disagree. I don’t see this being anything like the Marlins with Stanton. Tatis will not be demanding a trade in a few seasons and the Padres are also not going anywhere. They are positioned to contend for a long time. This team is deep, young and stacked with talent waiting in the wings.
 

bstanwood

Well-known member
Sep 24, 2016
3,257
Mystic, CT
I agree that the odds are heavily against anyone being super productive for 14 years, the history of the game tells me that it won't happen...but it might.
If I am in the padres front office I have to make this deal, even though I know the odds are in 2033 it won't look super awesome.
What's a GM supposed to do?? Wait it out and see what happens??? They were proactive and potentially secured a deal that will be below market value. I think you make a deal like that expecting some of it to be "dead weight".
To me a proactive deal like this makes more sense than overpaying a bonafide superstar that's past his prime.
 

WizardofOz1982

Well-known member
Sep 30, 2017
1,026
Oklahoma
I agree that the odds are heavily against anyone being super productive for 14 years, the history of the game tells me that it won't happen...but it might.
If I am in the padres front office I have to make this deal, even though I know the odds are in 2033 it won't look super awesome.
What's a GM supposed to do?? Wait it out and see what happens??? They were proactive and potentially secured a deal that will be below market value. I think you make a deal like that expecting some of it to be "dead weight".
To me a proactive deal like this makes more sense than overpaying a bonafide superstar that's past his prime.

Exactly. He's 22. As the GM you have to calculate that he'll be hurt the equivalent of 1 season and below peak for 4 of it (due to decline at the back end or whatever for 4 of it). The gamble is whether he puts up $340 million (34 fWAR) worth of value in the remaining 9 years. He's been worth 6.5 fWAR in a about 1 seasons worth of PAs so far and was on a 7 WAR pace last year. I think they odds are pretty good this contract ends up being a very good one from a WAR value standpoint.
 

Latest posts

Top