Gold Ref. Auto's of the top guys in the game

[Topnotchsy]

It's something that has been discussed in the past, but it's a developing story so I figure it's worth another go around.

When a Bowman Chrome set is released, there are usually a whole bunch of autographs in high demand. As time goes on and some prospects end up never panning out or becoming nothing more than decent MLB players, the prices on a vast majority drop. Meanwhile though, an isolated few develop into true stars.

As we have seen historically, the top rookie cards of big-time stars can net huge dollars. Whether it be the prices paid for the mass produced cards of the 80's, the prices paid for a Jeter SP RC despite the print run now, or the prices for high-end graded copies of players, the the numbers are quite impressive.

Now take the gold refractor (or other rare parallels.) The print run is extremely low, the card is possibly the most iconic when it comes to modern day RC cards (in baseball) and take a player who is a superstar. The question is simple... what is the potential for such a card?

Even now you can wait months, if not years for a single gold refractor of some of the more established players in the Majors to hit eBay. There have been spans of well over a year (unless I missed some listings) between listings of Wright or Hanley gold ref's at one time (of course eBay allows the chance that 2 will turn up in the same week as well.) As time goes on, one assumes that these cards will only become tougher to find as they end up in the hands of collectors who are not looking to move them. Assuming that they retain their luster and the demand for the specific release remains high, it seems like there is a ton of potential for these. To this point though, the prices some may have anticipated seem unfounded in most cases. Sure Wright's gold refractor has gone for over $2000, as has Mauer's, but in general, few even hit the $1000 marker and (fairly) popular names like Jon Lester, Kevin Youkilis and Brian McCann do not even come close to $500. So the question is, long term, for those players who go on to long careers at a high level, what is the potential?

 

[miguelcabrera]

braun

/ thread

 

[Zymco]

 

[brouthercard]

As you can see, though, even after a successful three or four year start to a career, many gold refractors taper off in price, perhaps reaching a peak when that finite number of fans gets reached. It is very difficult for an already established star to accumulate even more fans/collectors, especially after five years. So theoretically, a lot of these guys have already peaked in price. Something like a Braun gold ref. auto won't get any higher even if he has ten more years of .300/30, because he already has his fan base that isn't going to grow any larger with time unless he does something beyond spectacular.

Perhaps we've seen the peak, there will always be more young new guys that come along with time.

Even retired players have seen their peak popularity in terms of cards - Ripken, Brett, Schmidt - if they had theoretical gold refractors autos since they were in the minors, they would not continue to increase in value until the end of time - their peak was during their playing years already.

 

[RZimm11]

One of my top cards to eventually get is a Zimmerman Gold Auto. There have been about 3 over the last 3-6 months show up. A raw went for $500, and 2 were BGS 9.5s. One sold for around $600 I believe, and another went unsold with a 1400 BO/BIN, I think.

I'd gladly pay 5-600 for one if I had it. I can only hope they decide to taper off a bit eventually.

 

[gomatt]

Obviously, the Gold Ref Auto has insane upside. But it seems that every player now has 89 different Rookie Cards which certainly decreases the potential of the BC Gold Ref Auto.

For me, the insane prices will come with players that transcend the game - like a Jeter or Pujols. Evan Longoria is good. Clayton Kershaw is good. Ryan Zimmerman is good. But these guys don't transcend the game. Very few do.

If Lincecum can maintain, his Gold Ref Auto prices will be insane down the road.

 

[Krom]

Obviously, the Gold Ref Auto has insane upside. But it seems that every player now has 89 different Rookie Cards which certainly decreases the potential of the BC Gold Ref Auto.

For me, the insane prices will come with players that transcend the game - like a Jeter or Pujols. Evan Longoria is good. Clayton Kershaw is good. Ryan Zimmerman is good. But these guys don't transcend the game. Very few do.

If Lincecum can maintain, his Gold Ref Auto prices will be insane down the road.

As could Lester's if he can perform as he has and has a long career. I disagree a little with the second part of the first para. Look at Pujols he has a TON of rcs and auto rcs and his rc /500 (let alone 50) is very pricey.

 

[darocker80]

Obviously, the Gold Ref Auto has insane upside. But it seems that every player now has 89 different Rookie Cards which certainly decreases the potential of the BC Gold Ref Auto.

For me, the insane prices will come with players that transcend the game - like a Jeter or Pujols. Evan Longoria is good. Clayton Kershaw is good. Ryan Zimmerman is good. But these guys don't transcend the game. Very few do.

If Lincecum can maintain, his Gold Ref Auto prices will be insane down the road.

Hehe

 

[All The Hype]

I'm a fan.


Gold Refractor Autos may not see big increases during the first few years of a player's career unless the player does something spectacular (no-hitter, big postseason game, etc.) but I think that with consistent excellence, time will help boost the value.

 

[sheetskout]

I'm not sure you can compare the Gold Refractor of today with those of five or six years past. There are simply more parallels now.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I'm not sure you can compare the Gold Refractor of today with those of five or six years past. There are simply more parallels now.

Feel free to share your thoughts on each. To this point I have not seen the increases on the older gold ref's that I expected ($175-$300 for guys like McCann and Youkilis seems really low. Youk a fan favorite in Boston, albeit injured this year, and McCann a 5 time All-Star) but I can imagine if the cards do really explode the older ones will have more potential.

 

[Sean_C]

While I do agree that the advent of other color refractors (specifically the orange ones) has cut down on some of the value of the golds, I do think they'll still remain the most liquid and popular. A Pujols Gold Refractor autographed card would be at least a $15,000 - $20,000 card IMHO, and a comparable Jeter or Arod would be $20 - $25,000.

Having said that, my biggest concern is not their future value, but how many of the big name ones have been Burge-ed. I know that a few of the David Wright autographed Gold Refractors have been altered, as have some of the Upton cards. I'd be afraid to buy a big $ raw card at this point, and would even be afraid of some of the graded ones as well (cardtarget's PSA cert checker is a godsend). To me, that is the bigger concern than an artificial ceiling as to values of modern cards.

 

[joey12508]

I'm not sure you can compare the Gold Refractor of today with those of five or six years past. There are simply more parallels now.

+1
pulling a gold refractor auto say in 2003 was a gigantic pull.

 

[brouthercard]

While I do agree that the advent of other color refractors (specifically the orange ones) has cut down on some of the value of the golds, I do think they'll still remain the most liquid and popular. A Pujols Gold Refractor autographed card would be at least a $15,000 - $20,000 card IMHO, and a comparable Jeter or Arod would be $20 - $25,000.

Having said that, my biggest concern is not their future value, but how many of the big name ones have been Burge-ed. I know that a few of the David Wright autographed Gold Refractors have been altered, as have some of the Upton cards. I'd be afraid to buy a big $ raw card at this point, and would even be afraid of some of the graded ones as well (cardtarget's PSA cert checker is a godsend). To me, that is the bigger concern than an artificial ceiling as to values of modern cards.

I'm not quite convinced that a modern day baseball card despite being numbered to 50 could sell for five figures, especially if there are different parallel versions of that card.

If Pujols ONLY had a refractor auto/500 and a gold refractor auto/50, I could see the refractor prices soften abit (ie $3000) and then gold refr. sell for a bit more ($8000), but certainly not $15,000 raw.

If a player has a base chrome, a refr, an x, a blue, a gold , an orange, and a super, it really does dilute all the hobby dollars for that card - think about it.

Think about what kind of Baseball card it takes to hit $15,000 - it's usually a unique 1/1 masterpiece/superfractor type card, not a card with 50 copies.

Heck, I can't think of ANY serial numbered card numbered to 50 in the history of the hobby that has sold for five figures, and only a handful of cards serial numbered to 5 or less have the capacity to hit the $15,000 mark.

So, a pujols red auto chrome refractor/5 , yes.

A pujols gold refractor chrome auto/50, no.

Heck, a raw Lebron exquisite/23 hasn't even sold for over $15,000, to my knowledge.

And I don't think an Ovechkin cup/8 has, either.

And I think a Tiger 2001 spa red/4, his rarest rookie year card, may just barely clear the $15,000 mark. And that was Tiger at his peak.

 

[JVC]

While I do agree that the advent of other color refractors (specifically the orange ones) has cut down on some of the value of the golds, I do think they'll still remain the most liquid and popular. A Pujols Gold Refractor autographed card would be at least a $15,000 - $20,000 card IMHO, and a comparable Jeter or Arod would be $20 - $25,000.

Having said that, my biggest concern is not their future value, but how many of the big name ones have been Burge-ed. I know that a few of the David Wright autographed Gold Refractors have been altered, as have some of the Upton cards. I'd be afraid to buy a big $ raw card at this point, and would even be afraid of some of the graded ones as well (cardtarget's PSA cert checker is a godsend). To me, that is the bigger concern than an artificial ceiling as to values of modern cards.

I'm not quite convinced that a modern day baseball card despite being numbered to 50 could sell for five figures, especially if there are different parallel versions of that card.

If Pujols ONLY had a refractor auto/500 and a gold refractor auto/50, I could see the refractor prices soften abit (ie $3000) and then gold refr. sell for a bit more ($8000), but certainly not $15,000 raw.

If a player has a base chrome, a refr, an x, a blue, a gold , an orange, and a super, it really does dilute all the hobby dollars for that card - think about it.

Think about what kind of Baseball card it takes to hit $15,000 - it's usually a unique 1/1 masterpiece/superfractor type card, not a card with 50 copies.

Heck, I can't think of ANY serial numbered card numbered to 50 in the history of the hobby that has sold for five figures, and only a handful of cards serial numbered to 5 or less have the capacity to hit the $15,000 mark.

So, a pujols red auto chrome refractor/5 , yes.

A pujols gold refractor chrome auto/50, no.

Heck, a raw Lebron exquisite/23 hasn't even sold for over $15,000, to my knowledge.

And I don't think an Ovechkin cup/8 has, either.

And I think a Tiger 2001 spa red/4, his rarest rookie year card, may just barely clear the $15,000 mark. And that was Tiger at his peak.

I'm pretty sure back in the late 90's and early 2000's some of Jordan's rare serial #'d inserts hit the 5 figure mark (PMG red, Metal Championship PMG, etc.). I can also attest to Lebron's Exquisite /23 selling for over $15k as I owned 2 of them at one point.

 

[brouthercard]

While I do agree that the advent of other color refractors (specifically the orange ones) has cut down on some of the value of the golds, I do think they'll still remain the most liquid and popular. A Pujols Gold Refractor autographed card would be at least a $15,000 - $20,000 card IMHO, and a comparable Jeter or Arod would be $20 - $25,000.

Having said that, my biggest concern is not their future value, but how many of the big name ones have been Burge-ed. I know that a few of the David Wright autographed Gold Refractors have been altered, as have some of the Upton cards. I'd be afraid to buy a big $ raw card at this point, and would even be afraid of some of the graded ones as well (cardtarget's PSA cert checker is a godsend). To me, that is the bigger concern than an artificial ceiling as to values of modern cards.

I'm not quite convinced that a modern day baseball card despite being numbered to 50 could sell for five figures, especially if there are different parallel versions of that card.

If Pujols ONLY had a refractor auto/500 and a gold refractor auto/50, I could see the refractor prices soften abit (ie $3000) and then gold refr. sell for a bit more ($8000), but certainly not $15,000 raw.

If a player has a base chrome, a refr, an x, a blue, a gold , an orange, and a super, it really does dilute all the hobby dollars for that card - think about it.

Think about what kind of Baseball card it takes to hit $15,000 - it's usually a unique 1/1 masterpiece/superfractor type card, not a card with 50 copies.

Heck, I can't think of ANY serial numbered card numbered to 50 in the history of the hobby that has sold for five figures, and only a handful of cards serial numbered to 5 or less have the capacity to hit the $15,000 mark.

So, a pujols red auto chrome refractor/5 , yes.

A pujols gold refractor chrome auto/50, no.

Heck, a raw Lebron exquisite/23 hasn't even sold for over $15,000, to my knowledge.

And I don't think an Ovechkin cup/8 has, either.

And I think a Tiger 2001 spa red/4, his rarest rookie year card, may just barely clear the $15,000 mark. And that was Tiger at his peak.

I'm pretty sure back in the late 90's and early 2000's some of Jordan's rare serial #'d inserts hit the 5 figure mark (PMG red, Metal Championship PMG, etc.). I can also attest to Lebron's Exquisite /23 selling for over $15k as I owned 2 of them at one point.

The only jordan inserts that have hit the $15,000 mark are the 97-8 PMG greens numbered to 10 and essential credentials/9. None of the inserts serial numbered to 50 have reached that mark.

And the Lebron's have been short lived in price. Honestly, I don't think a Pujols numbered to twice the number and the existence of 500 copies of a more common version could hit $15,000.

No modern baseball player is on the level of Jordan, Lebron or Tiger in the market, except for maybe Ichiro.

 

[Sean_C]

I respectfully disagree. I think that high grade examples of limited cards like that would bring in eye-popping amounts (and possibly depress the values of the other variations a little bit).

Part of the problem is that for the past few years during the Great Recession, getting people to spend good $ on good cards has become harder and harder to do. Everyone and their brother still want the best possible cards, but they want them for the cheapest prices possible, and aren't afraid to make cheap offers hoping that someone will really need the cash. I'm all for getting things cheap, but there is a limit.

Case in point, my Longoria Gold Refractor PSA 10:

I paid $710 for it back in 2008, already graded and from a clean source, so I'm 99.44% sure it's not altered. It's one of those items in my collection that you'll have to rob me for or wait until I die before I move it. I post it on occasion though, in appropriate threads, with the disclaimer that it's not available. Even still, I'll get unsolicited offers from people trying to get it from me. The last few that I've received are so insulting that I couldn't help but tell the people that (sorry, but if you think you are getting that card for $500, you are smoking crack). And these are offers from kids, but from buyers that should know better. To make offers like speaks volumes to the mentality of collectors out there.

While I do agree that the advent of other color refractors (specifically the orange ones) has cut down on some of the value of the golds, I do think they'll still remain the most liquid and popular. A Pujols Gold Refractor autographed card would be at least a $15,000 - $20,000 card IMHO, and a comparable Jeter or Arod would be $20 - $25,000.

Having said that, my biggest concern is not their future value, but how many of the big name ones have been Burge-ed. I know that a few of the David Wright autographed Gold Refractors have been altered, as have some of the Upton cards. I'd be afraid to buy a big $ raw card at this point, and would even be afraid of some of the graded ones as well (cardtarget's PSA cert checker is a godsend). To me, that is the bigger concern than an artificial ceiling as to values of modern cards.

I'm not quite convinced that a modern day baseball card despite being numbered to 50 could sell for five figures, especially if there are different parallel versions of that card.

If Pujols ONLY had a refractor auto/500 and a gold refractor auto/50, I could see the refractor prices soften abit (ie $3000) and then gold refr. sell for a bit more ($8000), but certainly not $15,000 raw.

If a player has a base chrome, a refr, an x, a blue, a gold , an orange, and a super, it really does dilute all the hobby dollars for that card - think about it.

Think about what kind of Baseball card it takes to hit $15,000 - it's usually a unique 1/1 masterpiece/superfractor type card, not a card with 50 copies.

Heck, I can't think of ANY serial numbered card numbered to 50 in the history of the hobby that has sold for five figures, and only a handful of cards serial numbered to 5 or less have the capacity to hit the $15,000 mark.

So, a pujols red auto chrome refractor/5 , yes.

A pujols gold refractor chrome auto/50, no.

Heck, a raw Lebron exquisite/23 hasn't even sold for over $15,000, to my knowledge.

And I don't think an Ovechkin cup/8 has, either.

And I think a Tiger 2001 spa red/4, his rarest rookie year card, may just barely clear the $15,000 mark. And that was Tiger at his peak.

I'm pretty sure back in the late 90's and early 2000's some of Jordan's rare serial #'d inserts hit the 5 figure mark (PMG red, Metal Championship PMG, etc.). I can also attest to Lebron's Exquisite /23 selling for over $15k as I owned 2 of them at one point.

The only jordan inserts that have hit the $15,000 mark are the 97-8 PMG greens numbered to 10 and essential credentials/9. None of the inserts serial numbered to 50 have reached that mark.

And the Lebron's have been short lived in price. Honestly, I don't think a Pujols numbered to twice the number and the existence of 500 copies of a more common version could hit $15,000.

No modern baseball player is on the level of Jordan, Lebron or Tiger in the market, except for maybe Ichiro.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

Its simple to say, but traditionally the more set, player and casual collectors converge, the higher the demand and thus price of the card.

I'm not sure all of these forces will combine adequately to garner sufficient (increased) demand for a gold refractor auto card, particularly with regard to *set* collectors.

As others have pointed out, there are normally many set options to choose from not only for the year a gold auto was released, but in subsequent years (and possibly prior years w/other sets) as well; there's only so much a premium a person will place on a player's card released before another. Additionally, its traditionally been tough for a card to reach extraordinary demand if there isn't a comparable mega-star in a similar set with similar demand and value within a few years time.

Further Bowman isn't really centered around set collecting - nobody expects to see factory Bowman/Bowman Chrome/BDP sets for sale at Walmart or Target.

Sometimes greater (potential) long-term gains are sacraficed for short-term profit in order to avoid risk, its a big reason why people are so quick to sell...few expect huge values to begin with. This probably weighs subconsciously on people's minds and influences demand and value.

In the end it doesn't make sense for one card to be worth a ton all by itself....hopefully these are useful ideas for you.

 

[brouthercard]

Sean C - I have to agree that the economy is having a big influence on the hobby right now.

People are offering peanuts for what were once and should still be very expensive cards, and People who have the very expensive cards don't want to sell because they don't want to lose an arm and a leg.

I do agree that high grade examples of cards limited to 50 can sell for $15,000. In fact a card numbered to 900 in a pristine grade could sell for that price (Tiger 2001 spa rc). But the reason they sell for that much is because usually the pop report is less than 10 copies graded at that high grade.

 

[darocker80]

My only gold ref left :/