How Important is OBP When Analyzing Minor-Leaguers?

[UMich92]

When analyzing minor-leaguers, how much importance do you place on OBP? I ask because I was reviewing season totals for some of the Tigers' minor-leaguers and noticed the low OBP (0.326) Wilkin Ramirez had this year. His low OBP combined with a strikeout total (143) doesn't seem to bode well for his future. Thoughts?

Alex

 

[Casey2884]

I would have chosen Extremely Important, if that was a choice in your poll. There's no better predictor of future big league success than the ability to control the strike zone at a young age.

 

[UMich92]

I would have chosen Extremely Important, if that was a choice in your poll. There's no better predictor of future big league success than the ability to control the strike zone at a young age.

I bolded what I believe is the key, "control of the strike zone."

Alex

 

[All The Hype]

Ramirez actually had cut way down on his Ks in the first half of the season (I have followed him for two or three years now), but it seemed like ever since he got called up and hit that mammoth homer and then got optioned when Magglio was healthy again, he went back to his old ways of striking out a lot.

He has a pretty special combination of power and speed though, I'm excited to see what he can do in the majors once he gets a chance to play a little more regularly.

 

[andyduke86]

I would have chosen Extremely Important, if that was a choice in your poll. There's no better predictor of future big league success than the ability to control the strike zone at a young age.

I agree. OBP is much more important than batting average for any professional player.

Another thing to be wary of, especially for guys in the lower minors, are those that put up an "empty" batting average. Guys that hit .300+ with no power (isolated power somewhere around .100). These guys almost always have no long term success in the majors.

 

[19braves77]

Contact rate is much more important then OBP in the minors. Once the player gets to the Majors contact rate becomes less important because some major league hitters only have one skill and thats to put the ball into the stands. Contact rate is also nice because you dont need a large sample size in the minors.

At the MLb level, the whole point of the batter swinging is putting the ball in play. Chris Young's failure to do this is what got him demoted, Francouer traded, and results in Delmon Young batting 6th in the Twins lineup. If you can do this in the minors it usually translates well to the Majors. Once a batter makes contact with the ball, the final disposition of that at-bat is largely out of his hands yet more positive results can occur vs a walk. A walk vs a single gives the player equal odds of scoring, but the team is better off with a single. It's hard for someone to go first to third or score from second on a walk. To many things have to happen.

Contact rate is a statistic that is far more stable and projectable. League level rates run about 80%. Most .300 hitters often come from those with contact rates greater than 90%. Batters with rates less than 70% typically have trouble keeping their batting average above .250. These .250 hitters are the ones that get released in the offseason in the minors.

Think about this: How much would everything about Delmon Young's game improve if he just make more contact alone more then taking a walk ? He currently bats in the lower part of the Twins Lineup.

 

[Halonut]

i think it is important but not a tell tale sign of mlb success. as long as a player's k:bb ratio progresses throughout the minors, i feel comfortable investing into them

 

[UMich92]

Contact rate is much more important then OBP in the minors. Once the player gets to the Majors contact rate becomes less important because some major league hitters only have one skill and thats to put the ball into the stands. Contact rate is also nice because you dont need a large sample size in the minors.

At the MLb level, the whole point of the batter swinging is putting the ball in play. Chris Young's failure to do this is what got him demoted, Francouer traded, and results in Delmon Young batting 6th in the Twins lineup. If you can do this in the minors it usually translates well to the Majors. Once a batter makes contact with the ball, the final disposition of that at-bat is largely out of his hands yet more positive results can occur vs a walk. A walk vs a single gives the player equal odds of scoring, but the team is better off with a single. It's hard for someone to go first to third or score from second on a walk. To many things have to happen.

Contact rate is a statistic that is far more stable and projectable. League level rates run about 80%. Most .300 hitters often come from those with contact rates greater than 90%. Batters with rates less than 70% typically have trouble keeping their batting average above .250. These .250 hitters are the ones that get released in the offseason in the minors.

Think about this: How much would everything about Delmon Young's game improve if he just make more contact alone more then taking a walk ? He currently bats in the lower part of the Twins Lineup.

Thanks for the post.

Alex

 

[Lars]

OBP shows me how smart is a hitter is coming up.

There are exceptions, but if you walk 171 times and strike out 671 times in your minor league career, it tells me that you aren't going to be a star in the Major Leagues.

If you can't find a way to take a walk or at least be able to tell a strike from a ball - then all your tools start to mean less because you hack at everything.

When analyzing minor-leaguers, how much importance do you place on OBP? I ask because I was reviewing season totals for some of the Tigers' minor-leaguers and noticed the low OBP (0.326) Wilkin Ramirez had this year. His low OBP combined with a strikeout total (143) doesn't seem to bode well for his future. Thoughts?

Alex

 

[ballerskrip]

I chose very important. But I also don't think it is a guarantee off success.

Look at conor jackson. He is a prime example of an apparantlÝ advanced hitter with a high obp but never was able to put it all together.

Skrip

 

[19braves77]

My 3 things to look for in a position player in the Minors:

1. Contact Rate
2. Speed
3. Injury History

Simple terms:

1. No one has ever walked themselves to the majors
2. It takes no talent to hustle
3. You are going to be forgotten.

 

[Lars]

In Jackson's case, it was more about overrating his power potential as a prospect and projecting him to be a 25-30 home run guy.

He hasn't been a flop, though 2009 has obviously been a lost season for him.

I chose very important. But I also don't think it is a guarantee off success.

Look at conor jackson. He is a prime example of an apparantlÝ advanced hitter with a high obp but never was able to put it all together.

Skrip