If going to NY or Boston means price increases...

[Topnotchsy]

I've heard people saying that a trade to NY or Boston should mean increased prices in an efficient market, because there are more fans. (Meaning that the price increases are justified.)

How then, does one explain prices for RC Auto's of players like Jason Bay (single RC Auto, costs $25 or so) and the prices for rookie cards of players like Posada?

Personally I think the increases are another example of market expectations that are not really in line with reality.

I have to run out now, so the post is a bit brief, but I'd love to hear people's thoughts, and may expound on the idea later.

 

[thefasterblade]

*shrugs*

 

[Wes]

I've heard people saying that a trade to NY or Boston should mean increased prices in an efficient market, because there are more fans. (Meaning that the price increases are justified.)

How then, does one explain prices for RC Auto's of players like Jason Bay (single RC Auto, costs $25 or so) and the prices for rookie cards of players like Posada?

Personally I think the increases are another example of market expectations that are not really in line with reality.

I have to run out now, so the post is a bit brief, but I'd love to hear people's thoughts, and may expound on the idea later.

People are excited for players like CC and Teix because they bring hope. People were meh with Bay because we were losing Manny.

 

[Buynhisellnlow]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. For me, any price increase is "justified" whether due to self-fulfilling prophecy or not.

I don't see how market reactions aren't in line with "reality". If they occur then there are market factors which trigger these events whether this is due to general misperceptions about the causation of the events is irrelevant to me. Unless you are making the conjecture that eventual the market will self correct due to a mass realization of this information. Other than that, I don't see what pertinence the reason behind price increase proportional to the market has.

Also, there are many more factors which trigger the market prices for the big market teams
- more media attention
- generally higher capped market values (CPVs) -- determined by the highest bidder for a market -- typically, the market with the most individuals in it will have the CPVs. So, since increased media attention can lead to increased public attention, this assists in feeding the cycle for higher prices.
- higher average sustained realized value potential -- determined by the total equity capital put into a market at a competitive pricing range -- again is assisted by a larger fan base but also helped when a market has more individuals willing to pay higher amounts than the average buyer in another market would

As for the players that don't generate a significant premium, that again, is due to hype or lack there of. The key seems to be that when a player generates some form of hype, he sees a disproportional increase in realized market value compared to if he was on a smaller market team.

I know this is a lot of rambling but I'll try to clarify any "fuzzy" points when I get more time.

 

[predatorkj]

Eh... more people want the cards when they move to a bigger market team so more people are fighting for them.Thus a price increase.Thats about the skinny of it.

 

[Bosox3]

Bay's cards were hot when He 1st got to boston but like anything..they cooled down as time went on.

 

[MacK]

Oh, there's definitely a price increase.

I got $78 for 3 of my Sabathia autos. Just regular autos too, nothing special.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. For me, any price increase is "justified" whether due to self-fulfilling prophecy or not.

I don't see how market reactions aren't in line with "reality". If they occur then there are market factors which trigger these events whether this is due to general misperceptions about the causation of the events is irrelevant to me. Unless you are making the conjecture that eventual the market will self correct due to a mass realization of this information. Other than that, I don't see what pertinence the reason behind price increase proportional to the market has.

This is exactly my point, and a crucial one when investing in my opinion. This is something I've followed over the last few years, and the perception has changed significantly, and with it the prices that are netted when players are traded.

Also, there are many more factors which trigger the market prices for the big market teams
- more media attention
- generally higher capped market values (CPVs) -- determined by the highest bidder for a market -- typically, the market with the most individuals in it will have the CPVs. So, since increased media attention can lead to increased public attention, this assists in feeding the cycle for higher prices.
- higher average sustained realized value potential -- determined by the total equity capital put into a market at a competitive pricing range -- again is assisted by a larger fan base but also helped when a market has more individuals willing to pay higher amounts than the average buyer in another market would

If this is inherent in a larger market, it seems hard to understand why players like Posada and Bay do not see higher prices. (Bay's RC Auto in fact, was going for significantly more while he was in Pittsburgh.)

As for the players that don't generate a significant premium, that again, is due to hype or lack there of. The key seems to be that when a player generates some form of hype, he sees a disproportional increase in realized market value compared to if he was on a smaller market team.

If I understand what you are saying here, I think you are hitting on a key idea, but possibly a different idea than the rest of the post was discussing (and the reason Bay might be a pretty solid investment right now.)

I know this is a lot of rambling but I'll try to clarify any "fuzzy" points when I get more time.

Would love to hear you clarify. I think that this is a pretty significant point, because if the perception is not in line with reality, that perception is inclined to shift, and it is key to recognize those shifts, or risk dealing with a market that seems to be acting and reacting in manners different than you've come to expect.

 

[predatorkj]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. For me, any price increase is "justified" whether due to self-fulfilling prophecy or not.

I don't see how market reactions aren't in line with "reality". If they occur then there are market factors which trigger these events whether this is due to general misperceptions about the causation of the events is irrelevant to me. Unless you are making the conjecture that eventual the market will self correct due to a mass realization of this information. Other than that, I don't see what pertinence the reason behind price increase proportional to the market has.

This is exactly my point, and a crucial one when investing in my opinion. This is something I've followed over the last few years, and the perception has changed significantly, and with it the prices that are netted when players are traded.

Also, there are many more factors which trigger the market prices for the big market teams
- more media attention
- generally higher capped market values (CPVs) -- determined by the highest bidder for a market -- typically, the market with the most individuals in it will have the CPVs. So, since increased media attention can lead to increased public attention, this assists in feeding the cycle for higher prices.
- higher average sustained realized value potential -- determined by the total equity capital put into a market at a competitive pricing range -- again is assisted by a larger fan base but also helped when a market has more individuals willing to pay higher amounts than the average buyer in another market would

If this is inherent in a larger market, it seems hard to understand why players like Posada and Bay do not see higher prices. (Bay's RC Auto in fact, was going for significantly more while he was in Pittsburgh.)

As for the players that don't generate a significant premium, that again, is due to hype or lack there of. The key seems to be that when a player generates some form of hype, he sees a disproportional increase in realized market value compared to if he was on a smaller market team.

If I understand what you are saying here, I think you are hitting on a key idea, but possibly a different idea than the rest of the post was discussing (and the reason Bay might be a pretty solid investment right now.)

I know this is a lot of rambling but I'll try to clarify any "fuzzy" points when I get more time.

Would love to hear you clarify. I think that this is a pretty significant point, because if the perception is not in line with reality, that perception is inclined to shift, and it is key to recognize those shifts, or risk dealing with a market that seems to be acting and reacting in manners different than you've come to expect.

I think you guys are reading too much into it.That would be like Jason Bay getting traded here.Of course his prices will go up (even though Houston is a smaller market team) simply because a lot of new people(i.e. people who don't normally collect Bay cards) will be clamoring for his stuff meaning more bidding wars and interest(even if only for a short while).

Now...if the player plays good for a little while and then all of a sudden goes on a hot streak...his stuff can still go up.There are always Johnny come lately's and people who just didn't buy what they feel was a substantial amount of said player so of course that increases the prices because yet again there is more generated interest in said player.

Its actually kinda simple.Over time the player gets collected enough to where ,unless he does something monumental or spectacular during the season, his cards pretty much start to stagnate and the prices stay in a general area.

And yes...I do agree that depending on what team the player plays for...that matters in how much the prices go up if he does go on a tear.Some players garner more attention than others but take Lance Berkman for instance.He was really hot this year and I did see an increase in some of his stuff.While it didn't increase as much as it might have had he been playing for a bigger market team it still increased. But of course that deals purley with fan base.Sometimes people even outside of the normal fanbase will start to pick things up which also drives the prices up.But nobody can ever compare to the bigger market teams unless they are just one of the best Ballplayers around.Hence monsters like Pujols being uber popular and very costly when dealing with his cards.

 

[Buynhisellnlow]

I'm not sure what you're getting at. For me, any price increase is "justified" whether due to self-fulfilling prophecy or not.

I don't see how market reactions aren't in line with "reality". If they occur then there are market factors which trigger these events whether this is due to general misperceptions about the causation of the events is irrelevant to me. Unless you are making the conjecture that eventual the market will self correct due to a mass realization of this information. Other than that, I don't see what pertinence the reason behind price increase proportional to the market has.

This is exactly my point, and a crucial one when investing in my opinion. This is something I've followed over the last few years, and the perception has changed significantly, and with it the prices that are netted when players are traded.

Also, there are many more factors which trigger the market prices for the big market teams
- more media attention
- generally higher capped market values (CPVs) -- determined by the highest bidder for a market -- typically, the market with the most individuals in it will have the CPVs. So, since increased media attention can lead to increased public attention, this assists in feeding the cycle for higher prices.
- higher average sustained realized value potential -- determined by the total equity capital put into a market at a competitive pricing range -- again is assisted by a larger fan base but also helped when a market has more individuals willing to pay higher amounts than the average buyer in another market would

If this is inherent in a larger market, it seems hard to understand why players like Posada and Bay do not see higher prices. (Bay's RC Auto in fact, was going for significantly more while he was in Pittsburgh.)

As for the players that don't generate a significant premium, that again, is due to hype or lack there of. The key seems to be that when a player generates some form of hype, he sees a disproportional increase in realized market value compared to if he was on a smaller market team.

If I understand what you are saying here, I think you are hitting on a key idea, but possibly a different idea than the rest of the post was discussing (and the reason Bay might be a pretty solid investment right now.)

I know this is a lot of rambling but I'll try to clarify any "fuzzy" points when I get more time.

Would love to hear you clarify. I think that this is a pretty significant point, because if the perception is not in line with reality, that perception is inclined to shift, and it is key to recognize those shifts, or risk dealing with a market that seems to be acting and reacting in manners different than you've come to expect.

I think we may actually be on the same page with this. I took your initial post as referring that the correction was going to be a reduced proportion in regards to market and realized values based on corresponding factors (hype for the most part) however, if I take it from the other perspective that we could see an adjustment on players who are currently undervalued based on these guidelines then I agree.

Where you wonder about why players like Bay don't bring in higher values, that again would be due to the lack of hype. There are still certain players on a team that are focused over others. However, those players who aren't currently looked at much would only need a little hype to generate a market fluctuation compared to what would be needed to generate the same gains in a smaller market.

Also realize that when they were in the smaller market they may have been the big fish in a small pond which equaled more hype for there. That could explain the price deviations. In reality the proportions still hold, it's just that the amount of attention actually became less when they went to a large market as they faded more into the slot of an everyday role player opposed to the star of the team.

Heck though, I could be WAY off. I mean, I still can't explain why Jon Lester's cards didn't see a bigger spike. He had all the elements and achievements that I thought would lead to a HUGE price jump for him.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I think you guys are reading too much into it.That would be like Jason Bay getting traded here.Of course his prices will go up (even though Houston is a smaller market team) simply because a lot of new people(i.e. people who don't normally collect Bay cards) will be clamoring for his stuff meaning more bidding wars and interest(even if only for a short while).

Honestly not completely sure what you are saying about Bay. What I was pointing out was the fact that Jason came from one of the smallest markets in baseball, to one of the biggest, had a strong season and played in the Playoffs for Boston, and prices actually dropped on his RC Auto. This seems like a pretty clear indicator that the fact that he is playing in a bigger market does not mean that "there are more people buying his cards, and therefore higher prices." If this is true, it should have some reconsidering whether to invest in a player solely because they went to a bigger market. It also means that one would want to explain why there have been increases, to help determine where/when they will be in the future.

Now...if the player plays good for a little while and then all of a sudden goes on a hot streak...his stuff can still go up.There are always Johnny come lately's and people who just didn't buy what they feel was a substantial amount of said player so of course that increases the prices because yet again there is more generated interest in said player.

Its actually kinda simple.Over time the player gets collected enough to where ,unless he does something monumental or spectacular during the season, his cards pretty much start to stagnate and the prices stay in a general area.

Not sure what this has to do with anything, certainly does not explain why Bay's prices dropped.

And yes...I do agree that depending on what team the player plays for...that matters in how much the prices go up if he does go on a tear.Some players garner more attention than others but take Lance Berkman for instance.He was really hot this year and I did see an increase in some of his stuff.While it didn't increase as much as it might have had he been playing for a bigger market team it still increased. But of course that deals purley with fan base.Sometimes people even outside of the normal fanbase will start to pick things up which also drives the prices up.But nobody can ever compare to the bigger market teams unless they are just one of the best Ballplayers around.Hence monsters like Pujols being uber popular and very costly when dealing with his cards.
No clue what point you are trying to bring out here. Seems like you are kind of disagreeing with my premise, but I'm not really sure.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I think we may actually be on the same page with this. I took your initial post as referring that the correction was going to be a reduced proportion in regards to market and realized values based on corresponding factors (hype for the most part) however, if I take it from the other perspective that we could see an adjustment on players who are currently undervalued based on these guidelines then I agree.

I do agree that the price of someone like Bay may be undervalued, though that wasn't my point here. My point was more that (in my opinion) it's clear that the way the market has been reacting is not a direct result of there being more fans, and therefore it is something to pay attention to. The increases we are seeing now are only when players go to NY and Boston (in fact, when a player on the market goes anywhere else, including other pretty large markets, prices have basically dropped immediately.) This was not always the case, and never before (since I've been following the market over the last 10 years) have the increases been this large coming the NY.)

Where you wonder about why players like Bay don't bring in higher values, that again would be due to the lack of hype. There are still certain players on a team that are focused over others. However, those players who aren't currently looked at much would only need a little hype to generate a market fluctuation compared to what would be needed to generate the same gains in a smaller market.

Agree, but I don't know that this is a direct factor in the initial price increases after a trade, as shown by players like Bay.

Also realize that when they were in the smaller market they may have been the big fish in a small pond which equaled more hype for there. That could explain the price deviations. In reality the proportions still hold, it's just that the amount of attention actually became less when they went to a large market as they faded more into the slot of an everyday role player opposed to the star of the team.

I think this is a point that is sometimes way way overlooked. No matter how big NY or Boston is, it's hard to imagine a player who has been on one team his whole career (like Bay before the trade) will gain as many fans as he loses, when he leaves the fan base he built up over years.

Heck though, I could be WAY off. I mean, I still can't explain why Jon Lester's cards didn't see a bigger spike. He had all the elements and achievements that I thought would lead to a HUGE price jump for him.

I'm still lost when it came to Lester. I was convinced we'd see huge increases, and his play far exceeded anything I could have hoped for (and still no increases.) I was sitting on 7 Sterling black ref.'s some Sterling Ref's /199, a nice slew of Chrome Auto's and parallels, half a dozen Ultimate Auto's, and his SP Authentic Auto 1/1. To this point I've only made a few dollars on the ones I sold.

 

[matfanofold]

If I'm not mistaken, didnt Bay see a slight surge in sales soon after being traded to Boston?

 

[AKA Coastal]

Bays stuff pretty much doubled when he got traded to the Redsox. Jonathan Sanchez will be a perfect example. Checkout his prices if he gets traded to Yankees, Mets, or Braves.

 

[Topnotchsy]

If I'm not mistaken, didnt Bay see a slight surge in sales soon after being traded to Boston?

A fairly significant increase. The increase was not sustained despite Bay doing quite well in Boston.

Many people seem to think that when a player goes to NY or Boston, the increases are a direct result of there being more people going for their cards. In reality, this is not accurate, as an increase in fan base should logically result in sustained increases.

While there is a larger fan base, and definitely advantages to playing in NY or Boston, investors would do well to understand when and why those changes happen so that they can take advantage. It also affects the way the market works before a player signs. Teixeira was just one recent example, though a bit deceiving because his signing was so unexpected.

 

[predatorkj]

I think you guys are reading too much into it.That would be like Jason Bay getting traded here.Of course his prices will go up (even though Houston is a smaller market team) simply because a lot of new people(i.e. people who don't normally collect Bay cards) will be clamoring for his stuff meaning more bidding wars and interest(even if only for a short while).

Honestly not completely sure what you are saying about Bay. What I was pointing out was the fact that Jason came from one of the smallest markets in baseball, to one of the biggest, had a strong season and played in the Playoffs for Boston, and prices actually dropped on his RC Auto. This seems like a pretty clear indicator that the fact that he is playing in a bigger market does not mean that "there are more people buying his cards, and therefore higher prices." If this is true, it should have some reconsidering whether to invest in a player solely because they went to a bigger market. It also means that one would want to explain why there have been increases, to help determine where/when they will be in the future.

Now...if the player plays good for a little while and then all of a sudden goes on a hot streak...his stuff can still go up.There are always Johnny come lately's and people who just didn't buy what they feel was a substantial amount of said player so of course that increases the prices because yet again there is more generated interest in said player.

Its actually kinda simple.Over time the player gets collected enough to where ,unless he does something monumental or spectacular during the season, his cards pretty much start to stagnate and the prices stay in a general area.

Not sure what this has to do with anything, certainly does not explain why Bay's prices dropped.

And yes...I do agree that depending on what team the player plays for...that matters in how much the prices go up if he does go on a tear.Some players garner more attention than others but take Lance Berkman for instance.He was really hot this year and I did see an increase in some of his stuff.While it didn't increase as much as it might have had he been playing for a bigger market team it still increased. But of course that deals purley with fan base.Sometimes people even outside of the normal fanbase will start to pick things up which also drives the prices up.But nobody can ever compare to the bigger market teams unless they are just one of the best Ballplayers around.Hence monsters like Pujols being uber popular and very costly when dealing with his cards.
No clue what point you are trying to bring out here. Seems like you are kind of disagreeing with my premise, but I'm not really sure.

Maybe you don't understand but the only thing I can say is...look at A-rod.When he went to New York his prices increased.Then they dipped a little.Then they go back up when he hits 14 homers in April and they sustain their prices.

When a player goes to a big market team people rush in to buy their cards.Then prices taper after a while once the demand is satisfied.Not sure whats unclear about that.Then if the player goes on a hot streak people buy more of his stuff and his prices see another increase.Sometimes they are sustained and sometimes not.There are always people who come in late and didn't buy into the initial hype and then now when said player gets hot they finally break down and buy his cards.The same thing goes for peopel who felt they just didn't buy enough cards.

Pretty much everything I just typed should make perfect sense and has everything to do with Jason Bay and his prices and A-Rod and his as well as Texiera and any other players who go to a bigger market team.

I think the only reason A-Rod prices climbed and stayed kinda high is there are a ton of people just waiting because they know he will most likely break the all time homerun record and in a yankees uniform when he does it.

 

[sportscardtheory]

Jay Bay's prices BLEW UP after his trade... his only RC auto was selling for under $10 before, and in between $25 and $60 after. I'd say that's a pretty big jump and proves that a trade or signing promotes renewed interest in a player's cards. Now if, say David Ortiz, was traded to the Royals, his stuff would drop because the BoSox fans would most likely sell off, and the minimal KC fans would not be able to sustain a price increase for his stuff.

 

[predatorkj]

Jay Bay's prices BLEW UP after his trade... his only RC auto was selling for under $10 before, and in between $25 and $60 after. I'd say that's a pretty big jump and proves that a trade or signing promotes renewed interest in a player's cards. Now if, say David Ortiz, was traded to the Royals, his stuff would drop because the BoSox fans would most likely sell off, and the minimal KC fans would not be able to sustain a price increase for his stuff.

Now thats something that I really don't think we have been seeing a whole lot of and that kinda makes for interesting conversation.Good point!