Investing in Elijah Dukes

[HoustonTeams4Me]

Even if he does well his name generates negative feelings which will hurt his prospecting future. There are a lot of better investments.

Would you be willing to name some?

I can't guarantee that Dukes will stay out of trouble or develop into a star, but you do realize that we are talking about a guy who would have been considered one of the very best prospects in baseball had it not been for the worries about his behavior. Throw in the fact that while many prospectors knew who he was a few years ago, 99% of fans will have just heard of him recently (if at all) and he's stayed out of trouble for the last season. Meanwhile his best RC Auto is $5. If you have investments that offer close to the return with this level of risk, I'd love to hear.

I would rather throw an equivalent amount of money at Wallace, Alonso, Laporta, either Beckham, Lars, etc. Guys who haven't reached the show yet and have no PR problems. I'd rather have 1 AU of any of those than 5 or 6 of the corresponding Dukes cards. Don't forget the factor that he plays for a terrible hobby market.

You can read my post about the markets above. I really think that people recently have been making a way bigger deal about markets than it really is (especially Washington which drew more fans than 11 teams last season.)
I honestly can not see how the potential on any of those guys (for 5x-6x the price) could be better investments. Do you think they are really 5x-6x more likely to explode?

With those player's mentioned above in mind (as well as Hosmer, Matusz, Skipworth, and some definite deals/steals in upcoming draftees like M.Givens, R.Berry, & M.Purke) , you could pick up Upperdeck USA "On-Card" Auto's for around 1x-4x the cost & in several case's even less than Duke's going rate (R.Berry sold $.99 +$2.99 s/h, K.Skipworth sold $3.28 +$2.50 s/h, Purke sold $5.03 +$3.25 s/h, Hosmer sold for $15.48+$3.25 s/h, Smoak sold for $19.38+$3 s/h).... I could go on & on! I do see where you are going with E.Dukes but as far as him being some type of untapped source of prospecting wealth, I'm not seeing it (there are currently better avenues out there to travel); but to each his own! I wouldn't mind buying a Dukey or two just to test the water's (as I've scooped him up on several of my fantasy team's since L.Milledge was sent down)!

 

[EricInCT]

Like you said a few months back, he is the greatest risk with the greatest return......I for one don't see it, but I wish you the absolute best.

 

[smapdi]

There are worse risks, and in terms of pure dollars, there really aren't many better. People seem to be tolerant of people with issues, especially if it's put into the positive light of 'redemption' like Hamilton. Some facts about Dukes as relating to baseball cards:
1) He was a highly coveted prospect who produced great minor league numbers for several years.
2) For some reason or other, timing in the changes of who could be on cards, etc., he didn't have a major brand card in the 2004 or 2005 era like a lot of other guys.
3) He has always manifested talent, and could have a very high ceiling on the field.
4) He has had legal issues that you never know when they could flare up again.
5) He has personal issues that appear to result from being totally boneheaded.

The combination of these factors led to where his cards are now. I'm always a little worried about people that show poor judgment in their personal life, because it denotes a lack of intelligence and patience that might limit performance on-field. He is a young guy, only about 24, but #4 and #5 were hopefully a result of immaturity and lack of worldliness, so hopefully he's on the right track now with good leadership, support, and introspection. If so, he could really turn things around and cards that are $5 today I could easily see as being $50 at the end of the season. That's if #3 continues to come true and #4-5 recede further into the background. After a week and a half of the 2009 season, he's got great numbers, including a .360 average and zero arrests or restraining orders. Worth investing in?

 

[HoustonTeams4Me]

After a week and a half of the 2009 season, he's got great numbers, including a .360 average and zero arrests or restraining orders. Worth investing in?

The key word's in the above statement are: "After a week and a half of the 2009 season", this is such a small sample size that when you look through top performer's thus far there are player's that have HUGE stat's (batting average's that will NOT stay at the level they are currently at, "No-Namer's" being in the lead- or close to it- in any given statistical category) but by mid season will have fallen back to the Mendoza line or slightly above it. This happens every year, & every year we hear about early season player's whom are contributing at an absurd rate, & how it will be thier year to "breakout" & shine (so invest while you can) .... I'm not saying E.Dukes isn't a good player, I'm just doubting that he's one of the better player's to invest your money into!

 

[Topnotchsy]

After a week and a half of the 2009 season, he's got great numbers, including a .360 average and zero arrests or restraining orders. Worth investing in?

The key word's in the above statement are: "After a week and a half of the 2009 season", this is such a small sample size that when you look through top performer's thus far there are player's that have HUGE stat's (batting average's that will NOT stay at the level they are currently at, "No-Namer's" being in the lead- or close to it- in any given statistical category) but by mid season will have fallen back to the Mendoza line or slightly above it. This happens every year, & every year we hear about early season player's whom are contributing at an absurd rate, & how it will be thier year to "breakout" & shine (so invest while you can) .... I'm not saying E.Dukes isn't a good player, I'm just doubting that he's one of the better player's to invest your money into!

Dukes's rates from last year extrapolated over a full season come to right around 30/30 and his OBP was right around .400. It's not just a week and a half.

I do want to say that I honestly have no clue if Dukes will pan out, I just feel that right now he's as good an investment as any that I can think of looking at risk/reward.

 

[Wes]

Even without him being what I'll summarize as a "bad character" he's been in the majors already so his potential for hype growth is limited in the same way that any other young players who reached the majors early are compared to prospects.

 

[Kutzy]

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vi ... 0392074513

Sold for more than I expected.

 

[js0000001]

I was at his 1st MLB game. Opening day in the Bronx. He hit a HR.

And he also hit a HR in his 2nd game.

That was the time to sell

 

[Topnotchsy]

I was at his 1st MLB game. Opening day in the Bronx. He hit a HR.

And he also hit a HR in his 2nd game.

That was the time to sell

Do you recall what the prices were at that point in time? I don't recall a time (since his mainstream cards were released) where his cards were going for much, and I like to think that the best is ahead.

 

[ThoseBackPages]

Topsy, you know i hope you make oodles of cash in every investment you make. that being said, the hobby
traditionally doent show a lot of love to hard a** punk/thugs.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Topsy, you know i hope you make oodles of cash in every investment you make. that being said, the hobby
traditionally doent show a lot of love to hard a** punk/thugs.

True.

That said, I'm betting on this "ex-thug" (cuz if he's still a thug I'm in trouble He has stayed out of trouble for a while though.)