Is it odd to anyone else...Mike Stanton related

[masonphillip]

Honestly I think the contributing factors you're looking to assess are complex and are always going to be in flux, its likely the primary reason why short-term investing is so popular with investors.

You make a good point here. My frustration with trying to nail down a pattern has led me to like short-term prospecting (especially that which deals with selling before call-up) a lot better than its long-term counterpart.

I just don't get it. He's got just as much potential now as he ever has. The only difference is that he's in MLB rather than MiLB. So by crossing the threshold into the MLB does potential no longer matter? Are MLB guys considered performance-based investments ONLY?

Based on this example, yes. Maybe that's the pattern..?

I think one of the biggest and most easily overlooked factors is that once a player reaches the majors, the buyers completely change. A lot of the prospectors who were bidding on everything and driving up prices have very suddenly withdrawn from the market. On top of this, many of these same people become sellers.

The mlb collectors don't necessarily have a clue as to what the player can do. All they see is a $100 chrome auto price tag, which probably scares a lot of them away rather than drawing them into the market.

So essentially you have a lower demand and higher supply when a player like stanton (or any other heavily hyped player whose debut will not be missed by most of his card holders) makes the majors. It takes a long time for the player to prove he is worthy of those high prices, so it can take awhile for prices to recover and exceed their minor league peaks.

I agree - the buyers do change.

But even at the MLB level, if a guy gets to "the next level" whatever that may be you do see auto prices take off sometimes be it Hanley, David Wright, Braun, Longoria etc.

I just figured Mike would have seen a bit more of that - that Triple Threads showed earlier in the thread is gorgeous. And not all the pricey either - [phil:1n80i0n1]260818287031[/phil:1n80i0n1] - although that's admittedly a lesser patch

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

I think one of the biggest and most easily overlooked factors is that once a player reaches the majors, the buyers completely change. A lot of the prospectors who were bidding on everything and driving up prices have very suddenly withdrawn from the market. On top of this, many of these same people become sellers.

The mlb collectors don't necessarily have a clue as to what the player can do. All they see is a $100 chrome auto price tag, which probably scares a lot of them away rather than drawing them into the market.

So essentially you have a lower demand and higher supply when a player like stanton (or any other heavily hyped player whose debut will not be missed by most of his card holders) makes the majors. It takes a long time for the player to prove he is worthy of those high prices, so it can take awhile for prices to recover and exceed their minor league peaks.

It looks like you're describing a disconnect between investors and collectors.

Its all about the majors.

 

[wolfmanalfredo]

So many sales nowadays are driven by potential, and not performance. Just my idea about Stanton's cards.

I'd agree with this but I think it used to be even more true a few years ago.

For better or for worse, real or perceived potential = investment dollars. Investment dollars disappear as real or perceived potential disappears.

This is odd for me, but for like the second time this year I agree with you. You're exactly right.

However (and I'm not contradicting anything you said), I don't personally see how Mike Stanton doesn't have even more potential yet. He's so incredibly young and already has shown his incredible power in the MLB (received a standing ovation in BP today and hit his 25th homer). He'll cut down his Ks and increase his average. He's young and a very talented baseball player. I know the masses may give up on him when they see his average, but those people don't realize what potential really is I guess. Just because a player is in the MLB and isn't performing above average doesn't mean he doesn't have a bright future as an MLBer.

I agree with both sides in parts.

Stanton has huge potential, but if he turns out to be purely a power hitter, average won't mean a ton if he still puts up the production (100+RBI, 30+ HR)

Look at Harmon Killebrew, potential didn't wain when he was a league leader in HR and RBI but didn't hit for average. He did his job which was to drive in runs, and thats what stanton does.

But I also agree that some prices trend upward with increased production, but fuled by media attention and hype. Thats why minor league prices are so high, people bank on the hype. Why on earth are Harper autos selling for more then Pujols rookie auto's? Hype, thats it. Even if he lives up to the highest hyped potential, there is no way that he will be other worldly like pujols has been for the last 10 years.

 

[DaveH]

Honestly I think the contributing factors you're looking to assess are complex and are always going to be in flux, its likely the primary reason why short-term investing is so popular with investors.

You make a good point here. My frustration with trying to nail down a pattern has led me to like short-term prospecting (especially that which deals with selling before call-up) a lot better than its long-term counterpart.

I just don't get it. He's got just as much potential now as he ever has. The only difference is that he's in MLB rather than MiLB. So by crossing the threshold into the MLB does potential no longer matter? Are MLB guys considered performance-based investments ONLY?

Based on this example, yes. Maybe that's the pattern..?

I think one of the biggest and most easily overlooked factors is that once a player reaches the majors, the buyers completely change. A lot of the prospectors who were bidding on everything and driving up prices have very suddenly withdrawn from the market. On top of this, many of these same people become sellers.

The mlb collectors don't necessarily have a clue as to what the player can do. All they see is a $100 chrome auto price tag, which probably scares a lot of them away rather than drawing them into the market.

So essentially you have a lower demand and higher supply when a player like stanton (or any other heavily hyped player whose debut will not be missed by most of his card holders) makes the majors. It takes a long time for the player to prove he is worthy of those high prices, so it can take awhile for prices to recover and exceed their minor league peaks.

this is an interesting post, and a factor that i dont often think about

 

[fengzhang]

The guy hit his 25th HR tonight, a laser grand slam and made an incredible throw from RF to nail Jose Reyes at home yet.

Here - [phil:nlwmyvmd]250861683733[/phil:nlwmyvmd] here - [phil:nlwmyvmd]330591731998[/phil:nlwmyvmd] and here - [phil:nlwmyvmd]260823284995[/phil:nlwmyvmd] all cheaper than the offseason prior to him getting promoted to the majors...what more do you want from him!

No it's not odd. It happens all the time.

People think prospecting is about skill and knowledge and being able to tell who'll become a bust or who'll become a star. Instead, it's about buying early, hyping the prospect up as much as you can, vigorously defending the prospect against any negative news, and then selling when the prospect gets called up. As you noted, with a few exceptions, prospect prices drop after they become a major leaguer for awhile regardless of how they perform.

 

[brouthercard]

A great example to explain this is Justin Verlander 2005 bowman chrome auto - he's selling at about half as much as what he sold for before he made his debut during his first full season.

The chrome market is all hype and much less performance.

It's a fool's game if you don't understand the concept- and most people are fools.

 

[Mudcatsfan]

I don't agree that Prospecting is exclusive to minor leaguers unless you want to name it something else, like simply investing, speculating, major-league-specting, what have you.

The truth is that players have cycles of performance and/or hype, and then subsequent cycles of public awareness.

If the performance is in the minors, only prospectors notice. If the performance is in the bigs on a team like Florida only a few die hard fans notice. If a player performs in boston or new York maybe everyone notices.

Based on how great the performance is/ where it happens/ what the potential career path for that player now is / what card offerings they have, determines the value .

Since awareness trails performance its always catching up. The trick is to be aware before everyone else catches up.

Did you notice ubaldo dominating early in 2010 and buy his auto rookies from 2005 for20 bucks and flip them for120 each in july?

 

[Mudcatsfan]

....continued.

If so, you made more money than any minor league prospector.

.........and yes I did. Alot.

Now someone else bought those for 120ret and sold at the peak at 180.

Some other poor sap bought at 180 and is waiting for cleveland fans to get excited at the 100peak dollar level.

The cycle is a wave with peaks and troughs not ONE PEAK, AND ONE FLOOR.

Antipate the cycles and stay ahead of the curve.

 

[sportscardtheory]

Trust me, if Stanton can have a great week or two and take over the ML lead in HRs, his stuff will start to trend upwards. The kid is 21 and can hit 40+ HRs a season. Not many veterans can even hit 40+ anymore.

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

I don't agree that Prospecting is exclusive to minor leaguers unless you want to name it something else, like simply investing, speculating, major-league-specting, what have you.

Prospecting is a type of investing, namely the investment in, well, prospects. A prospect is someone who has a chance at becoming something, in this case, a chance to become a permanent big league player - not a good major league player, just a permanent major league player. I say this because prospects are described as being good or bad ('good prospect' vs. 'bad prospect').

 

[Topnotchsy]

So many sales nowadays are driven by potential, and not performance. Just my idea about Stanton's cards.

I'd agree with this but I think it used to be even more true a few years ago.

For better or for worse, real or perceived potential = investment dollars. Investment dollars disappear as real or perceived potential disappears.

This is odd for me, but for like the second time this year I agree with you. You're exactly right.

However (and I'm not contradicting anything you said), I don't personally see how Mike Stanton doesn't have even more potential yet. He's so incredibly young and already has shown his incredible power in the MLB (received a standing ovation in BP today and hit his 25th homer). He'll cut down his Ks and increase his average. He's young and a very talented baseball player. I know the masses may give up on him when they see his average, but those people don't realize what potential really is I guess. Just because a player is in the MLB and isn't performing above average doesn't mean he doesn't have a bright future as an MLBer.

I agree with both sides in parts.

Stanton has huge potential, but if he turns out to be purely a power hitter, average won't mean a ton if he still puts up the production (100+RBI, 30+ HR)

Look at Harmon Killebrew, potential didn't wain when he was a league leader in HR and RBI but didn't hit for average. He did his job which was to drive in runs, and thats what stanton does.

But I also agree that some prices trend upward with increased production, but fuled by media attention and hype. Thats why minor league prices are so high, people bank on the hype. Why on earth are Harper autos selling for more then Pujols rookie auto's? Hype, thats it. Even if he lives up to the highest hyped potential, there is no way that he will be other worldly like pujols has been for the last 10 years.

I disagree with this from a hobby perspective. It is often overlooked, but there is a huge correlation between hobby dollars and batting average, possibly greater than any other stat. If your batting average is below .290 or so (that number is an estimate) you will not see hobby attention almost regardless of what else you do. (There are a couple of very rare exceptions, but not too many.) What do players like Adam Dunn, Jim Thome, Andruw Jones and Carlos Delgado have in common? Tons of poewr, but low batting average. Also very little hobby attention, despite their abilities. The power is great, but you need a decent batting average for real hobby attention. Even Ryan Howard's hobby attention decreased with his batting average, and it was only so high because he had a batting average over .320 his second season.

If Stanton hits .250 with 45 homers, he will not get much love. If he hits .300 with 35 homers, he'll be a hobby star.

 

[Mudcatsfan]

I don't agree that Prospecting is exclusive to minor leaguers unless you want to name it something else, like simply investing, speculating, major-league-specting, what have you.

Prospecting is a type of investing, namely the investment in, well, prospects. A prospect is someone who has a chance at becoming something, in this case, a chance to become a permanent big league player - not a good major league player, just a permanent major league player. I say this because prospects are described as being good or bad ('good prospect' vs. 'bad prospect').

My point here is that not all prospecting (card investing) is betting on future performance of minor leaguers. Some is merely betting that others will notice existing performance of a player, or the undervaluing of a particular card.

Basically everything Topnotchsy does well.

 

[Freeman50]

Trust me, if Stanton can have a great week or two and take over the ML lead in HRs, his stuff will start to trend upwards. The kid is 21 and can hit 40+ HRs a season. Not many veterans can even hit 40+ anymore.

Exactly, this kid is 21 with 25 bombs and hitting a fair 260 and the best part is he hasnt even been hot yet. Its not like hes hitting 220 or anything. His chromes are starting to show a little movement, but you still cant his good low numbered chromes (golds and oranges) bc people just want insane prices for them......I still think 80ish is a steal on his base chrome. The thing that really gets me is how in the hell jason heyward and Buster Posey chromes are bringing more than his. I mean big league pitchers have figured Heywards ass out for almost a year now going back to last year and his stuff is still insane.....Go figure.....

 

[uniquebaseballcards]

My point here is that not all prospecting (card investing) is betting on future performance of minor leaguers. Some is merely betting that others will notice existing performance of a player, or the undervaluing of a particular card.

Well yeah, I see it every day I'm sure many of us do, it makes my cards more expensive. Investors bidding against me for certain (non-prospect) cards and if they win they add them to their ebay stores at 3-4 times the price they win them for, where they languish...yea. Sometimes it goes too far.