Is Jordan Zimmermann one of the best 10 pitchers in baseball?

[Topnotchsy]

I usually hesitate to buy into the young guys because of small sample size, but after last season's 3.18 ERA, he's at 2.28 this season. Does not strike out a ton of guys, but walks almost no one. At 26 years old, not sure there are 10 guys in the Bigs I'd put ahead of him.

Guys I have ahead of him (may be missing someone.)

Justin Verlander
Jered Weaver
David Price
Felix Hernandez
Matt Cain
Stephen Strasburg
Clayton Kershaw

Guys I can go either way on:

CC Sabathia?
Johnny Cueto?
Cole Hamels?
Chris Sale?

 

[sscards]

Not top 10 but top tier

Hamels is better
I think Tommy Hanson is better (Braves fan)

 

[ballerskrip]

He is right on the cusp for me, somewhere in the 9-13 range. I am a big fan.

 

[darocker80]

I feel like a pitcher needs to dominate in the league for at least 5 years to be considered such as: Cain, HAmels, Felix, Verlander (Lincecum if you scratch this year), Halladay, etc

 

[sheetskout]

Way too little track record to put him in that group; and he's one of my favorites. Right now he's just a guy pitching well. Otherwise, R.A. Dickey, Cueto, etc would have to be in that group by default.

 

[HPC]

I also believe he is in the 10-15 range.

Over time, he could easily become a top 7

 

[gmarutiak]

Gio Gonzalez wants you to know that Zimmermann isn't even the second-best pitcher on his own team.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Gio Gonzalez wants you to know that Zimmermann isn't even the second-best pitcher on his own team.

Gio has been great, but his ERA is a full run higher than Zimmermann's this season. I will admit that looking at Gonzalez's stats over the 3 seasons I did not realize how good he has been.

skeets - I do think that Cueto is worth mentioning. I'm using the last 2 seasons as a reference point, which may not be enough time...

 

[ballerskrip]

Gio has been great, but his ERA is a full run higher than Zimmermann's this season. I will admit that looking at Gonzalez's stats over the 3 seasons I did not realize how good he has been.

skeets - I do think that Cueto is worth mentioning. I'm using the last 2 seasons as a reference point, which may not be enough time...

I am a huge Gio fan, but I will take a guy with an ERA a full run lower every day of the week. Does it matter if it is sexy with high strikeout numbers when you are talking about that big of a difference in ERA?

 

[James52411]

No, he hasn't done it long enough. I wouldn't rank him as a top 10 pitcher in the National League. Halladay, C. Lee, Hamels, Strasburg, Wainwright, Carpenter, Cueto, Kershaw, Cain, and Lincecum all are excellent pitchers with longer track records. Excellent young pitcher, though. If he keeps it up, he'll be a premier arm. As a Cubs fan, though, I've learned you have to wait and see how injuries shake out with a pitcher before you anoint one as an elite arm.

 

[Y4NK335]

Extremely high strand rate (near 84%; 3rd highest in MLB) and a 3.41 FIP.

He is very solid, but I would not quite crown him top 10 just yet.

I'd rank him and Bumgarner similarly, not top 10-15, but pushing well into top 25 or so.

 

[Weimer]

I don't see him as a top 10 pitcher at this point. Mainly for reasons already stated above. So I'll just leave it at that.

 

[FromKoufaxtoEdwin]

I am a huge Gio fan, but I will take a guy with an ERA a full run lower every day of the week. Does it matter if it is sexy with high strikeout numbers when you are talking about that big of a difference in ERA?

It actually does matter because the underlying numbers show the real truth. Single season ERA can be extremely flukey and really doesnt tell the whole story. Zimmermann has had a really good season and doesn't walk anybody, but the ERA is a mirage. He is a groundball pitcher that gives up line drives 22% of the time, but has a BABIP of around .265. He has a really high strand rate of 84%, as mentioned earlier. Getting ground balls and not walking guys are great ingredients for a pitcher, but the other numbers dont really line up. For his fielding independent pitching numbers, his FIP is 3.4, his XFIP is 3.6, and his SIERA is 3.7, which are all extremely solid, but not elite numbers. The ERA might not normalize itself this season, but if Zimmermann gets the same batted ball results, he will give up more runs and his ERA will eventually reflect it.

 

[scotty216brs]

This year he is definitely up there as one of the most consistent pitchers, in a few years might be top 10 in baseball.

I'd say the most consistent [and also underrated] this season is Kyle Lohse...you can just pencil him in for 7 innings and 1-2 ER every start. 1.5 BB/9 is crazy good.

 

[MOFNY]

I think he's great but he doesn't get a ton of innings. It seems he goes 6.0 every outing. His cards have started spiking the last week or so.

 

[scotty216brs]

I think he's great but he doesn't get a ton of innings. It seems he goes 6.0 every outing. His cards have started spiking the last week or so.

He only has thrown 100+ pitches 7 times this season, so it seems like the manager might be babying him a little bit as I would think he could probably pitch one more inning a lot of starts. Nonetheless, I'm trying to find any other pitchers (besides JV) who have pitched at least 6 innings every start this season, which Zimm has done so far.

 

[ballerskrip]

He only has thrown 100+ pitches 7 times this season, so it seems like the manager might be babying him a little bit as I would think he could probably pitch one more inning a lot of starts. Nonetheless, I'm trying to find any other pitchers (besides JV) who have pitched at least 6 innings every start this season, which Zimm has done so far.

Good point, they are certainly babying him since it is his second season off surgery. I am really looking forward to year 3.

skrip

 

[scotty216brs]

It actually does matter because the underlying numbers show the real truth. Single season ERA can be extremely flukey and really doesnt tell the whole story. Zimmermann has had a really good season and doesn't walk anybody, but the ERA is a mirage. He is a groundball pitcher that gives up line drives 22% of the time, but has a BABIP of around .265. He has a really high strand rate of 84%, as mentioned earlier. Getting ground balls and not walking guys are great ingredients for a pitcher, but the other numbers dont really line up. For his fielding independent pitching numbers, his FIP is 3.4, his XFIP is 3.6, and his SIERA is 3.7, which are all extremely solid, but not elite numbers. The ERA might not normalize itself this season, but if Zimmermann gets the same batted ball results, he will give up more runs and his ERA will eventually reflect it.

Holy overanalyze post.

I like how you are trying to make it seem like he is worse than his stats indicate? The only thing that matters is that he has an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.065 w/ a K/BB of 4. Yeah sure, his ERA can go up, but so can't every other pitcher, lol. BABIP is an overrated stat all around....What is wrong with a high strand rate? Isn't it good to strand runners? Unless I am missing something...:/

 

[scotty216brs]

Good point, they are certainly babying him since it is his second season off surgery. I am really looking forward to year 3.

skrip

Yeah, it will be nice to see Zimm and Stras off the leash next season.

 

[FromKoufaxtoEdwin]

Holy overanalyze post.

I like how you are trying to make it seem like he is worse than his stats indicate? The only thing that matters is that he has an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.065 w/ a K/BB of 4. Yeah sure, his ERA can go up, but so can't every other pitcher, lol. BABIP is an overrated stat all around....What is wrong with a high strand rate? Isn't it good to strand runners? Unless I am missing something...:/

Unfortunately, i dont think you grasped much of what I wrote. Instead of using stats like ERA, which can fluctuate highly through a single season due to things outside of the pitcher's control (luck, defense, etc), I used numbers that correlate much better with how the pitcher actually performed. Fielding independent pitching numbers try to eliminate the "noise" and get to the heart of what the pitcher actually controls. You should probably read up on it, as it is really interesting stuff and these are the numbers and analytics used by most front offices in their decision making processes.

As for BABIP, there are very few pitchers that can "break" it, and one year samples are highly variable. The two types of batted balls that go for hits the most are line drives and ground balls. Zimmermann, because he is a ground ball pitcher with a relatively high line drive rate, should realistically have a BABIP much higher than his current rate. If he continues to give up line drives at that rate, he will give up more hits, which will lead to more runs.

Finally, strand rate is something that also fluctuates highly and can be attributed to luck, chance, defense, etc in small samples. His career rate is roughly 10% less than this years, and in previous years he struck out more guys and gave up fewer line drives. Those realities just dont compute and say that his strand rate is totally legitimate.

Nothing that I wrote is to say that Zimmermann is not a really, really fine pitcher that any team would LOVE to have. It is just to show that while the ERA is fantastic, there is a lot more to it than just that number and the underlying numbers show he is not quite at the elite level suggested by the OP.