Is Madison Bumgarner the most valuable player in all of baseball?

[seitas]

I don't mean an MVP. I literally mean is he the most valuable commodity in baseball? He is 25 and is signed to a team friendly deal through 2019. His total 6 year deal is what the dodgers pay Kershaw in a season and a half.
Giancarlo Staton is often the player cited with the most trade value in MLB. After last night I think that sentiment will change. I couldn't imagine the giants accepting Stanton for bumgarner straight up.
So who has the most value in baseball?
And no I am not suggesting the giants ever trade madbum....ever.

 

[Super Mario]

Oh Jesus Christ.

Replace Madison Bumgarner with Clayton Kershaw, and welcome to two weeks ago.

 

[Mighty Bombjack]

Wow, that's a sour STL fan right there

to the OP, I would take Kershaw all things being equal, but as you point out, all things are not equal. Bumgarner's value to that franchise over the past five years is hard to overstate, and his contract is a bargain. that are not trading him anywhere.

I just wonder if Sandoval will take a hometown discount. It would be hard to walk away from a culture that produces WS rings like this, but then again maybe he feels that now that he has won the championships, it's time to get paid. He is clearly a key piece for them.

 

[maxe0213]

Wow, that's a sour STL fan right there

to the OP, I would take Kershaw all things being equal, but as you point out, all things are not equal. Bumgarner's value to that franchise over the past five years is hard to overstate, and his contract is a bargain. that are not trading him anywhere.

I just wonder if Sandoval will take a hometown discount. It would be hard to walk away from a culture that produces WS rings like this, but then again maybe he feels that now that he has won the championships, it's time to get paid. He is clearly a key piece for them.

If the giants don't offer a fair market deal, he will walk. The Red Sox are said to be interested and I'm sure the Yankees will be. I would expect lots of teams to be in on him as he has shown a fantastic glove, a good bat, and has shown he is a huge postseason piece. I would think he would take a mil or two less a year to stay but nothing big.

 

[Topnotchsy]

The playoff run does cloud thinking a bit because while Bumgarner is amazing in the Playoffs, so has Jon Lester been historically. Not to take away from either player but there is more to the picture.

A lot will depend on whether Bumgarner can maintain a higher level of play in the regular season. No doubt he's a top flight pitcher but he has not been in the same league as guys like Kershaw, Felix, wainwright and cueto (and maybe sales and Kluber).

The price point is definitely a big plus of course as well.

All that said, his efforts this post season were historic!

 

[bmp1971]

I don't mean an MVP. I literally mean is he the most valuable commodity in baseball? He is 25 and is signed to a team friendly deal through 2019. His total 6 year deal is what the dodgers pay Kershaw in a season and a half.
Giancarlo Staton is often the player cited with the most trade value in MLB. After last night I think that sentiment will change. I couldn't imagine the giants accepting Stanton for bumgarner straight up.
So who has the most value in baseball?
And no I am not suggesting the giants ever trade madbum....ever.

He obviously looks pretty valuable right now, doesn't he?

Who wouldn't look valuable at his age after winning WS MVP 2014 and NLCS MVP 2014 and showing he's got the ability to dominate even on two days rest?

I'm sure "Bummy" would crack the top 10 list at this point.

Remember, baseball is a team game. It takes a horse to win, but everyone on the team plays a vital part in winning at some point in time. Sandoval and Pence and Crawford and Panik and Posey and Casilla, and others,....were all critical to the championship. Buying individual talents without focusing on the bigger picture (team) is what NY and LA did, and lost.

Would the Angels trade Trout for MadBum? No. Would Detroit trade Cabrera for MadBum? No. Would LA trade Kershaw for MadBum? Prob not. Would KC trade Ventura for MadBum? I doubt it. Etc, etc, etc. Does MadBum have awesome value? Yes, but it doesn't mean San-Fran could get anyone in baseball for him.

 

[lisu]

The playoff run does cloud thinking a bit because while Bumgarner is amazing in the Playoffs, so has Jon Lester been historically. Not to take away from either player but there is more to the picture.

A lot will depend on whether Bumgarner can maintain a higher level of play in the regular season. No doubt he's a top flight pitcher but he has not been in the same league as guys like Kershaw, Felix, wainwright and cueto (and maybe sales and Kluber).

The price point is definitely a big plus of course as well.

All that said, his efforts this post season were historic!

I actually think that Madison Bumgarner is going to come in the Top 3 in the NL Cy Young voting. Bumgarner was NL POM in May and August, Kershaw was June and July, and Wainwright was September.

Bumgarner had an excellent regular season and just barely missed a 20 win season. He's the MVP right now for the price that the Giants got him for.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I actually think that Madison Bumgarner is going to come in the Top 3 in the NL Cy Young voting. Bumgarner was NL POM in May and August, Kershaw was June and July, and Wainwright was September.

Bumgarner had an excellent regular season and just barely missed a 20 win season. He's the MVP right now for the price that the Giants got him for.

To make it clear, I am sure that all the teams in baseball want what Bumgarner did for the Giants in the Playoffs.

That said, Bumgarner had a really solid season, but top 3 in NL Cy Young voting seems like a stretch to me.

He was 18-10 but there were 3 20-game winners in the NL in Kershaw, Wainwright and Cueto and wins probably overstates his case. While he was 4th in the NL in wins, he was 14th in ERA (behind the 3 aforementioned, along with guys like Doug Fister, Lance Lynn, Henderson Alvarez etc.) and was 11th in WAR if you want to use advanced metrics.

I think the NL Cy Young race should be:

1. Kershaw
2. Cueto
3. Wainwright
4. Zimmermann
5. Hamels (despite the poor W/L he had a great season)

 

[Topnotchsy]

He obviously looks pretty valuable right now, doesn't he?

Who wouldn't look valuable at his age after winning WS MVP 2014 and NLCS MVP 2014 and showing he's got the ability to dominate even on two days rest?

I'm sure "Bummy" would crack the top 10 list at this point.

Remember, baseball is a team game. It takes a horse to win, but everyone on the team plays a vital part in winning at some point in time. Sandoval and Pence and Crawford and Panik and Posey and Casilla, and others,....were all critical to the championship. Buying individual talents without focusing on the bigger picture (team) is what NY and LA did, and lost.

Would the Angels trade Trout for MadBum? No. Would Detroit trade Cabrera for MadBum? No. Would LA trade Kershaw for MadBum? Prob not. Would KC trade Ventura for MadBum? I doubt it. Etc, etc, etc. Does MadBum have awesome value? Yes, but it doesn't mean San-Fran could get anyone in baseball for him.

Even as I think your point is legit, I don't know if you are making a strong enough case. There is no chance in the world LA would make this trade. The Playoffs seem to have made people forget that Kershaw is putting up historically good numbers. He is the first player in baseball history to lead the Majors in ERA 4 consecutive years. Bumgarner finished a very solid 14th in the NL and 21st in baseball.

 

[lisu]

To make it clear, I am sure that all the teams in baseball want what Bumgarner did for the Giants in the Playoffs.

That said, Bumgarner had a really solid season, but top 3 in NL Cy Young voting seems like a stretch to me.

He was 18-10 but there were 3 20-game winners in the NL in Kershaw, Wainwright and Cueto and wins probably overstates his case. While he was 4th in the NL in wins, he was 14th in ERA (behind the 3 aforementioned, along with guys like Doug Fister, Lance Lynn, Henderson Alvarez etc.) and was 11th in WAR if you want to use advanced metrics.

I think the NL Cy Young race should be:

1. Kershaw
2. Cueto
3. Wainwright
4. Zimmermann
5. Hamels (despite the poor W/L he had a great season)

I guess we'll see what happens. We all know that W-L records don't matter whatsoever. I just think that Bumgarner had stretches during the season where he was completely unhittable (hence the two Pitcher of the Month) awards.

 

[bmp1971]

Even as I think your point is legit, I don't know if you are making a strong enough case. There is no chance in the world LA would make this trade. The Playoffs seem to have made people forget that Kershaw is putting up historically good numbers. He is the first player in baseball history to lead the Majors in ERA 4 consecutive years. Bumgarner finished a very solid 14th in the NL and 21st in baseball.

Yes, I agree. I doubt numerous teams would swap their top player(s) for MadBum. He did a hell-of-a- job this past month, and historically in the WS, but that doesn't mean he's the greatest value out there for everyone to try to add to their team.

 

[James52411]

I'd take him over any pitcher. As Herm says, you play to win the game. Bumgarner is a great big game pitcher because he moves his stuff around and has better command than Kershaw. Kershaw has more dominating stuff, but he misses location more often, relying on his deception and two amazing plus pitches successfully so much that he isn't as concerned with location as much as he should be.

 

[Topnotchsy]

I'd take him over any pitcher. As Herm says, you play to win the game. Bumgarner is a great big game pitcher because he moves his stuff around and has better command than Kershaw. Kershaw has more dominating stuff, but he misses location more often, relying on his deception and two amazing plus pitches successfully so much that he isn't as concerned with location as much as he should be.

I'm not sure how the pieces add up to the conclusion here (unless you are dismissing regular season performance and focusing on the tiny sample size that is postseason performance.

I'm a little confused on why you assume that Bumgarner's strengths make him a better big game pitcher, but do not have the same impact in other games. (Since in the regular season he was a very good pitcher, but at 21st in ERA in the Majors not one of the absolute best). On the control note, Kershaw had fewer BB/9 than Bumgarner last season and obviously fewer walks overall, so what indicates that he has poorer command?

I don't get a chance to watch either player personally, so there may be something I'm missing but the numbers don't seem to tell that story. What I have seen is a very, very good pitcher put up a historic postseason run. Definitely noteworthy and something that every team wants, but that does not make him the best pitcher in baseball by a long shot.

 

[lisu]

Yes, I agree. I doubt numerous teams would swap their top player(s) for MadBum. He did a hell-of-a- job this past month, and historically in the WS, but that doesn't mean he's the greatest value out there for everyone to try to add to their team.

For his current price, he's the greatest value out there for everyone out there to add to their team. However, there is no way in heck that the Giants trade him - $25 mil for 5 years is a bargain.

 

[AnthonyCorona]

Good discussion but I think you have to say, scoreboard. No pitcher even approached Bum when it mattered. Plus I'm pretty sure ol Clayton would trade all his nice awards he'll get this year for Madison's 2 series mvps and his shiny ring

 

[James52411]

I'm not sure how the pieces add up to the conclusion here (unless you are dismissing regular season performance and focusing on the tiny sample size that is postseason performance.

I'm a little confused on why you assume that Bumgarner's strengths make him a better big game pitcher, but do not have the same impact in other games. (Since in the regular season he was a very good pitcher, but at 21st in ERA in the Majors not one of the absolute best). On the control note, Kershaw had fewer BB/9 than Bumgarner last season and obviously fewer walks overall, so what indicates that he has poorer command?

I don't get a chance to watch either player personally, so there may be something I'm missing but the numbers don't seem to tell that story. What I have seen is a very, very good pitcher put up a historic postseason run. Definitely noteworthy and something that every team wants, but that does not make him the best pitcher in baseball by a long shot.

This is where regular season statistics aren't enough to provide an evaluation. Ultimately, almost every regular season game isn't that big of a deal, in terms of psychological pressure on a human being. Postseason games are. Kershaw makes physical mistakes with location and mental mistakes with pitch selection in big games. Bumgarner doesn't. I agree that Kershaw has better stuff and, all things being equal, should be the better pitcher. It's just that when the stakes are the highest, one guy deals with pressure better than the other.

Also, I understand issues of insufficient sample size, but it always surprises me a bit when folks totally disregard small sample size when it's the only hard evidence available as to the quality of the pitcher in big games. Put another way, I think Bumgarner is better in big games based on the evidence. Favoring Kershaw is inherently a subjective opinion unsupported by the facts and evidence.

 

[seitas]

Let's not forget that Bumgarner hit 4 home runs this year, 2 of them being grand slams. He was third on the team in slg% and led all pitchers with a 1.2 WAR compiled in only 66 at bats. If you think he was mediocre during the regular season you weren't staying up late enough to actually watch him play.

 

[Topnotchsy]

This is where regular season statistics aren't enough to provide an evaluation. Ultimately, almost every regular season game isn't that big of a deal, in terms of psychological pressure on a human being. Postseason games are. Kershaw makes physical mistakes with location and mental mistakes with pitch selection in big games. Bumgarner doesn't. I agree that Kershaw has better stuff and, all things being equal, should be the better pitcher. It's just that when the stakes are the highest, one guy deals with pressure better than the other.

Also, I understand issues of insufficient sample size, but it always surprises me a bit when folks totally disregard small sample size when it's the only hard evidence available as to the quality of the pitcher in big games. Put another way, I think Bumgarner is better in big games based on the evidence. Favoring Kershaw is inherently a subjective opinion unsupported by the facts and evidence.

Fun discussion...

You do realize that it would be just as easy to say that your perspective is subjective while mine is objective. The reality is that it depends on how you define the parameters of your statements. You have chosen to define "big games" as playoff games, and dismiss everything else and use that to define how good a player is. You are using those parameters to explain the difference in psyche of the players (which incidentally is not the argument you made earlier when you said it has to do with control and movement). Of course, if one would have looked at Kershaw before his run of poor Playoff performances they could have extrapolated that we was an excellent big game pitcher because of course, Kershaw has had some very successful Playoff performances (although overall he has definitely had some really awful starts and was a big reason the Dodgers lost a few games...)

Has Bumgarner been great in the Playoffs to this point in his career? Outstanding, and well worthy of accolades. Would I expect him to pitch better than Kershaw in the Playoffs going forward? Personally I would not. I don't think that some players become dramatically better and other dramatically worse in the Playoffs and so I take the full body of work. I tend to assume Bumgarner will regress a bit over the years if he keeps reaching the Playoffs, and Kershaw will pitch closer to his standards. Who knows though, I may be wrong. But this is how things to to play out. Mr. Clutch/Mr. November Derek Jeter was a lifetime .310 hitter in the regular season. His Postseason average... .308. He had some remarkable Postseasons and some mediocre ones.

 

[Topnotchsy]

Let's not forget that Bumgarner hit 4 home runs this year, 2 of them being grand slams. He was third on the team in slg% and led all pitchers with a 1.2 WAR compiled in only 66 at bats. If you think he was mediocre during the regular season you weren't staying up late enough to actually watch him play.

No one said mediocre. 21st in the Majors in ERA means that you are an ace. That said, Kershaw has put up the best ERA in baseball 4 consecutive seasons, and put together one of the greatest seasons all-time this year. I am certain Kershaw would trade his Cy Young season for Bumgarner's WS championship, but he's still a better pitcher.

To say Bumgarner is not as good as Kershaw is basically to say that someone is not as good as LeBron James. It's not an insult.

 

[seitas]

Grantland just finished their two part series on this topic interesting read....

http://grantland.com/features/2014-mlb-trade-value-rankings-part-2/